MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
Reducing agricultural carbon emissions: What’s public health got to
do with it?
Scottish Faculty of Public Health
6th November 2014S Vittal Katikireddi
E-mail: [email protected]
Twitter: @vkatikireddi
Clinical Lecturer in Public Health
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades.
3
Based on Figure 1.3Source: IPCC from www.mitigation2014.org
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
About half of cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions between 1750 and 2010 have occurred in the last 40 years.
4
Based on Figure 5.3Source: IPCC from www.mitigation2014.org
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• Fifth report (published this year)• WG1: Physical Science Basis• WG2: Adaptation
• What will be the impact of climate change?• How can we adapt to reduce the adverse
consequences?• WG3: Mitigation
• How can we reduce the magnitude of climate change?
• Organised into: Energy, Transport, Buildings, Industry and Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU)
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
Without additional mitigation, global mean surface temperature is projected to increase by 3.7 to 4.8°C over the 21st century.
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Based on WGII AR5 Figure 19.4Source: IPCC from www.mitigation2014.org
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
Health in the Green Economy
http://www.who.int/hia/green_economy/en/
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
Risk factors for the Global Burden of Disease
Risk factor AFOLU?
High blood pressure
Tobacco (inc SHS)
Alcohol
Household air pollution (solid fuels)
Diet low in fruits
High BMI
High glucose
Childhood underweight
Ambient air pollution
Physical inactivity
Lim, S. S., et al. (2012). "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010." The
Lancet 380(9859): 2224-2260.Table shown for DALYs (both sexes).
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
Risk factors for the Global Burden of Disease
Risk factor AFOLU? Why
High blood pressure Agriculture influences diet
Tobacco (inc SHS) Agricultural product
Alcohol Agricultural product
Household air pollution (solid fuels)
Use of forestry and agricultural residues
Diet low in fruits Agriculture influences diet
High BMI Agriculture influences diet and PA
High glucose Agriculture influences diet
Childhood underweight Agriculture influences diet
Ambient air pollution Emissions eg from meat production
Physical inactivity Largest employment sector
Lim, S. S., et al. (2012). "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010." The
Lancet 380(9859): 2224-2260.Table shown for DALYs (both sexes).
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
Mechanisms to health impacts
Mechanism Health impacts
Environmental degradation Adverse impacts of agriculture on environment
Food security and nutrition Malnutrition: protein energy and/or micronutrient.
Non-communicable diseases Obesity and tobacco
Infectious diseases Vector-borne and zoonotic diseases; Antibiotic resistance
Occupational health risks Injuries; Exposure to chemicals
Social & economic determinants of health and equity
Socio-economic impacts and their distribution
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
Potential win-wins
• Dietary diversity• May mean increasing consumption for some parts of the
world: a ‘contraction and convergence’ approach
• Healthier meat consumption• Role of red meat in NCDs, water stress and antibiotic
resistance
• Improving crop productivity• Need to balance short-term gains with long-term
sustainability
• Reducing tobacco production• Deforestation, soil degradation and occupational risks
• Equity• Ensure equity-promoting e.g. Dangers of limiting
importation of food
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
Difficulties in assessment
• Timescale• Short-term vs long-term
• Geography• Context matters!
• Conflicting evidence about health impacts
• Conflicting evidence about sectoral impacts
• Evidence vs Precautionary Principle• Vested interests
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
Acknowledgements
• Lead for agriculture expertise• Tara Garnett
• WHO• Elaine Fletcher• Carlos Dora• Francesco Branca• Finola Hackett
• NHS Lothian• Margaret Douglas
• N.B. The views expressed do not represent the WHO. A final report is still in preparation.
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
Climate change and health
Climate change could be the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. Effects on health of climate change will be felt by most populations in the next decades and put the lives and wellbeing of billions of people at increased risk. During this century, the earth's average surface temperature rises are likely to exceed the safe threshold of 2°C above pre-industrial average temperature.
The Lancet (2009). Managing the health effects of climate change. The Lancet and University College of London Commission on Climate Change.
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
Climate change and health
Effects of climate change on health will affect most populations in the next decades and put the lives and wellbeing of billions of people at increased risk. During this century, earth’s average surface temperature rises are likely to exceed the safe threshold of 2°C above preindustrial average temperature.[...] Although vector-borne diseases will expand their reach and death tolls, especially among elderly people, will increase because of heatwaves, the indirect effects of climate change on water, food security, and extreme climatic events are likely to have the biggest effect on global health.
Costello, A., et al. "Managing the health effects of climate change: Lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission." The Lancet 373(9676): 1693-1733.
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