By:Vijay Sardana
Food-Agribusiness Expert & AdvocateDirector, ARPL Techno-legal Services
IFC certified Corporate Governance Board Leadership TrainerIndependent Director, NABKISAN & MSEI & Member, CDAC, SEBI
Blog: Vijay Sardana Online
ARPLTechno-Legal
ServicesARPLTechno-Legal
Services
ARPLTechno-Legal
ServicesARPL
Techno-LegalServices
Prime Minister Narendra Modi aimed for a 5 trillion dollar economy by 2024.
Blog: Vijay Sardana Online
Prime Minister Narendra Modi aimed for Farm income will double in 2024
ARPLTechno-Legal
ServicesARPL
Techno-LegalServices
Future of Consumption EconomyFuture of Consumption Economy
• The UN population forecast of 2017 waspredicting "near end of high fertility" globally andanticipating that by 2030 over ⅔ of worldpopulation will be living in countries with fertilitybelow the replacement level.below the replacement level.
• India's population to surpass that of Chinaaround 2024: UN
Blog: Vijay Sardana Online
ARPLTechno-Legal
ServicesARPL
Techno-LegalServices
Changing Demographics of IndiaChanging Demographics of IndiaIndia in 2001 India in 2026
Blog: Vijay Sardana Online
ARPLTechno-Legal
ServicesARPL
Techno-LegalServices
Median Age by 2026Median Age by 2026
Blog: Vijay Sardana Online
ARPLTechno-Legal
ServicesARPL
Techno-LegalServices
Global outlook for food use of Global outlook for food use of agricultural commoditiesagricultural commodities
• Total food use of the commodities covered in this Outlook is expected to grow steadily over the next decade at rates of 1.2% p.a. for cereals, 1.7% for animal products, 1.8% for sugar and vegetable oils, and 1.9% p.a. for pulses and roots and tubers.
• In general, per capita food consumption of staple products • In general, per capita food consumption of staple products (cereals, roots & tubers, pulses) has levelled off globally and will be driven predominantly by population growth, while the evolution of higher value commodity (sugar, vegetable oils, meat, dairy products) demand will be based on a combination of per-capita use and population growth.
• As a result, demand for higher value products is projected to grow faster than for staples over the next decade.
Blog: Vijay Sardana Online
ARPLTechno-Legal
ServicesARPL
Techno-LegalServices
Contribution of population to growth in food useContribution of population to growth in food use
Blog: Vijay Sardana Online
ARPLTechno-Legal
ServicesARPL
Techno-LegalServices
Contribution of food groups to total daily per capita Contribution of food groups to total daily per capita calorie availabilitycalorie availability
Blog: Vijay Sardana Online
ARPLTechno-Legal
ServicesARPL
Techno-LegalServices
Per cent change of food group in daily per capita calorie Per cent change of food group in daily per capita calorie availability, 2016availability, 2016--18 to 202818 to 2028
Blog: Vijay Sardana Online
ARPLTechno-Legal
ServicesARPL
Techno-LegalServices
Regional trends in agriculture & fisheries productionRegional trends in agriculture & fisheries production
Blog: Vijay Sardana Online
ARPLTechno-Legal
ServicesARPL
Techno-LegalServices
Change in agricultural land use, Change in agricultural land use, 20162016--18 to 202818 to 2028
Blog: Vijay Sardana Online
ARPLTechno-Legal
ServicesARPL
Techno-LegalServices
Now, let us understand why is the Now, let us understand why is the implication for all this…implication for all this…
• Population of India will be around 145 Crores
• Cultivable Land available : 14 Crore hectare for food, fibre, feed and fodder production
• Per capita land availability in India will be less than • Per capita land availability in India will be less than 100 sq. meter for production of food, fiber, feed and fodder for 365 days.
• It means average productivity of land in India should not be 10 tons per hectare to ensure food security.
Blog: Vijay Sardana Online
ARPLTechno-Legal
ServicesARPL
Techno-LegalServices
Annual GDP growth rates 2019Annual GDP growth rates 2019--20282028
Blog: Vijay Sardana Online
ARPLTechno-Legal
ServicesARPL
Techno-LegalServices
Per capita income growthPer capita income growth
Blog: Vijay Sardana Online
ARPLTechno-Legal
ServicesARPL
Techno-LegalServices
Population & Trade DynamicsPopulation & Trade Dynamics
Blog: Vijay Sardana Online
ARPLTechno-Legal
ServicesARPL
Techno-LegalServices
Agricultural trade balances by region, in constant valueAgricultural trade balances by region, in constant value
Blog: Vijay Sardana Online
ARPLTechno-Legal
ServicesARPL
Techno-LegalServices
Per capita food availability of vegetable oil Per capita food availability of vegetable oil in selected countriesin selected countries
Blog: Vijay Sardana Online
ARPLTechno-Legal
ServicesARPL
Techno-LegalServices
Direct GHG emissions from agricultureDirect GHG emissions from agriculture
Blog: Vijay Sardana Online
ARPLTechno-Legal
ServicesARPL
Techno-LegalServices
Percentage change in producer pricesPercentage change in producer prices
Blog: Vijay Sardana Online
ARPLTechno-Legal
ServicesARPL
Techno-LegalServices
Evolution of world oilseed pricesEvolution of world oilseed prices
Blog: Vijay Sardana Online
ARPLTechno-Legal
ServicesARPL
Techno-LegalServices
Future of Edible oil Sector in IndiaFuture of Edible oil Sector in India
• India’s demand for edible oil will be between 20 to 22 million tons
• Considering the demand & supply projections and cost dynamics Industry will go through structural changes.dynamics Industry will go through structural changes.
• In place of economics, many political considerations will impact market forces in edible oil industry.
• According to my estimate, India’s edible oil import bill cross USD 30 billion in next 10 years.
Blog: Vijay Sardana Online
ARPLTechno-Legal
ServicesARPL
Techno-LegalServices
Open for discussionOpen for discussion
Thank you
Blog: Vijay Sardana Online
Top Related