Monitoring, modelling and managing land use change on a large scale
Hermann Lotze-Campen Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
ALTER-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 07 Sep 2008
What makes God laugh? –
Tell him about your future plans!
(Woody Allen)
Motivation
• Agriculture: between economy and environment
• Land use: food, fibre, forest, freshwater, fuel,
fertile soils, flora&fauna
• Global vs. regional perspective
• Goal: long-term, global, integrated, spatially explicit
approach to land use management
• "Gardening the world in the anthropocene"
• Biodiversity is a social issue!
• Managing <- Modelling <- Monitoring
Some principles of economic thinking
• Economics is not business management!
• Demand and supply: utility and profit maximization
• Prices as a major indicator for scarcity
• There is no such thing as a free lunch!
• Opportunity costs / shadow prices
• Relative prices and costs, substitution
• Competition, trade, efficiency
• Investment, technological change, growth
• Regulation, rules, policy
The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model
Time Step:
Object:
Annual
Grid Cell (PFT fractional areas)
Vegetation Population
DynamicsTissue TurnoverTissue AllocationLight Competition
MortalityEstablishment
PFT Environmental ConstraintsDisturbance (Fire)
Land Use
Climate/ Weather
Time Step:
Object:
Daily
Plant Functional Type
(PFT) average individual
Photosynthesis
MaintenanceRespiration
Water balance
�0.5o
Information flow
Carbon & Water Fluxes
Water fluxes only
Cereals
Oilseeds
Pulses
Sugarbeets
Crop yieldsLand & Water constraints
+200 mm-200 -100 0 +100
CCSR
ECHAM4
Climate change (GCM)
LPJ (50x50 km grid)
Biophysical inputs
Income vs. Food consumption
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
GDP / Cap / Year
Kca
l / C
ap /
Day
kcal_cap (105 countries, 1990/2000) kcal_cap (fitted values)
kcal = 802 * gdp^(0.142327) [R^2 = 0.66]
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Bill
ion
Low fertility, low mortality High fertility, high mortality Central fertility, central mortality (Lutz et al. 2001)
Demography
Income and diet
Food/Energy demand, production costs
Socioeconomicinputs
(1) MAgPIE – a global land use optimisation model• 2200 grid cells (3° resolution), 10 economic regions• 30 production activities (13 crops, livestock,
irrigation, bioenergy, land conversion)• rotational constraints• internal feed balances, international trade•• (quasi-)endogenous technological change
Lotze-Campen et al., in press
Income vs. Food consumption
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
GDP / Cap / Year
Kca
l / C
ap /
Day
kcal_cap (105 countries, 1990/2000) kcal_cap (fitted values)
kcal = 802 * gdp^(0.142327) [R^2 = 0.66]
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Bill
ion
Low fertility, low mortality High fertility, high mortality Central fertility, central mortality (Lutz et al. 2001)
Cereals
Oilseeds
Pulses
Sugarbeets
Crop yieldsLand & Water constraints
+200 mm-200 -100 0 +100
CCSR
ECHAM4
Climate change (GCM)Demography
Income and diet
Food/Energy demand, production costs
LPJ (50x50 km grid)
Biophysical inputs
Socioeconomicinputs
Land usepatternLotze-Campen et al., in press
Income vs. Food consumption
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
GDP / Cap / Year
Kca
l / C
ap /
Day
kcal_cap (105 countries, 1990/2000) kcal_cap (fitted values)
kcal = 802 * gdp^(0.142327) [R^2 = 0.66]
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Bill
ion
Low fertility, low mortality High fertility, high mortality Central fertility, central mortality (Lutz et al. 2001)
Cereals
Oilseeds
Pulses
Sugarbeets
Crop yieldsLand & Water constraints
+200 mm-200 -100 0 +100
CCSR
ECHAM4
Climate change (GCM)Demography
Income and diet
Food/Energy demand, production costs
LPJ (50x50 km grid)
Biophysical inputs
Socioeconomicinputs
Shadowprices
Lotze-Campen et al., in press
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
World AFR CPA EUR FSU LAM MEA NAM PAO PAS SAS
% p
er y
ear
FAO 1970-95BaselineLow_wat_saveBaseline+area
Income vs. Food consumption
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
GDP / Cap / Year
Kca
l / C
ap /
Day
kcal_cap (105 countries, 1990/2000) kcal_cap (fitted values)
kcal = 802 * gdp^(0.142327) [R^2 = 0.66]
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Bill
ion
Low fertility, low mortality High fertility, high mortality Central fertility, central mortality (Lutz et al. 2001)
Cereals
Oilseeds
Pulses
Sugarbeets
Crop yieldsLand & Water constraints
+200 mm-200 -100 0 +100
CCSR
ECHAM4
Climate change (GCM)Demography
Income and diet
Food/Energy demand, production costs
LPJ (50x50 km grid)
Biophysical inputs
Socioeconomicinputs
Requiredtechnical
change until2050
Lotze-Campen et al., in press
Scenario:
100 EJ Bioenergy in 2050
Cropland expansionmax 250 mio. ha(~18%)
Lotze-Campen et al., preliminary results
Scenario:
100 EJ Bioenergy in 2050
No croplandexpansion
Lotze-Campen et al., preliminary results
Policy and decision-making
Public discourse and communication
Case studies(Regional nodes)
Issues(Thematic nodes)
Purpose(Synthesis nodes)
Great plains
Ama-zonia
Kala-hari
Sahel
Danuberiver
Aral sea Yellowriver
Indonesiaforest
Insitutions
Resource use
Biodiversity
Values
Economy
Global-scale research and integration
Lotze-Campen/Reusswig/Stoll-Kleemann, GAIA 2008
A conceptual structure of a Sustainability Geoscope
Geoscope implementation: Building upon the existing World Network of Biosphere Reserves and Biosphere Reserve Integrated Monitoring (BRIM)
Lotze-Campen/Reusswig/Stoll-Kleemann, GAIA 2008
Source: UNESCO MAB
• Biosphere Reserves combine nature conservation and land use
• Mission: BRs are experimental sites for sustainable development
• An initial infrastructure for Biosphere Integrated socio-ecologicalMonitoring (BRIM) already exists
Land use management
• Settlement/infrastructure, forest, cropland, pasture,
unused/protected
• From local to global
• Instruments: taxes, subsidies, tradeable permits,
regulations and planning
• Global public goods: international compensation
Our head is round –so that our thinking can change directions.
(Francis Picabia)
Challenges in large-scale land-use modelling
• Linking monetary and biophysical processes, flows and data
• Different thematic scales (e.g. vegetable oil vs. physiologically
different oil crops)
• Different temporal scales (meaning of "long-term" vs. "short-term" in
biophysical models and economic models)
• Different spatial scales (point observations vs. spatial grids vs.
polygons/administrative units)
• The treatment of technological change (exogenous vs. endogenous)
• Optimisation mode in economics vs. time-step mode in natural science
• Recursive dynamics vs. intertemporal optimisation
• The treatment of human behaviour, values, institutions
• Availability of compatible data across scales and themes
Key messages
Research
• Sustainable bioenergy production in 2050: ~50-150 ExaJoule?
• Land availability for agricultural expansion (pasture?)
• Role of technological change (ag. production, energy conversion)
• Role of international trade
• Climate change and yields (CO2 fertilization?)
• Food demand patterns?
Policy
• Potential of bioenergy for rural development
• Critical assessment of bioenergy subsidies (ag. policy, climate policy)
• Global land use management (land use planning, land rights)
• Forests/Biodiversity as a global common good
• Water management and pricing
(3) Sustainability Geoscope: a concept for monitoringglobal change and sustainable development
Goals: Improve the empirical base for Global Change research and Sustainability Science
Develop a "Macroscope" for monitoring and representing crucial partsand processes of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
Concept: A global framework for comparative regional case studies on human actions affecting sustainability
Regional nodes covering hot-spots of human-nature interactions
Thematic nodes covering key research issues
Multiple thematic nodes to be integrated at each regional node
Multiple regional nodes to be covered by each thematic node
Lucht and Jaeger, NKGCF 2001; Lotze-Campen et al. GAIA 2002, 2008
Lotze-Campen et al., preliminary results
Required rates of technical change in agriculture (2005-2055)- Baseline plus various biofuel scenarios -
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
World AFR CPA EUR FSU LAM MEA NAM PAO PAS SAS
% p
er y
ear
FAO 1970-95 Baseline Biof 100EJ Biof + area Biof + trade
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