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Money Weekly 28 December 2012
Page No: 1
Aditya Birla Money Limited
2nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400
PageNo.
PageNo.
Corporate News 2 Industrial Production 6
Macro Economic News 2 Consumer Durables 6
Global Sector Performance 3 Capital Goods 6
Nifty Index Forward Multiples 3 Derivatives Corner 7-9
Global Indices 4 Outlook 10
Government Bond 5 Event Calendar 10
Govt. lowers XII Five Year Plan growth forecast to 8% from 9.0-9.5%
5631
5628
5825
5931
5852
59165870
(20000)
(10000)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
7000080000
15-Nov 22-Nov 29-Nov 06-Dec 13-Dec 20-Dec 27-Dec
( Mn)
5460
5520
5580
5640
5700
5760
5820
5880
59406000
FII (LHS) MF (LHS) Nifty (RHS)
Source: NSE
Note: As per Thursday closing
Bharti Airtel Ltd
3.8%
Tata Motors Ltd
3.6%Wipro Ltd 3.3%
Tata Power Co Ltd
3.1%
Axis Bank Ltd
2.9%
Cairn India Ltd
2.6%Lupin Ltd 2.5% Dlf Ltd 2.5%
GrasimIndustries Ltd
(2.2%)
Jindal Steel &Power Ltd
(1.9%)
Mahindra &Mahindra Ltd
(1.4%)
Power Grid Corp OfIndia Ltd (1%)
Hindustan
Unilever Ltd
(1%)
Ultratech
Cement Ltd
(0.8%)
Cipla Ltd (0.8%)Hcl Technologies
Ltd (0.6%)
Source: NSE
Developed Equity Markets
WTD YTD
U.S. (S&P)* 1,418 (0.8) 12.8
UK (FTSE)* 5,954 0.2 6.9
J apan (Nikkei 225) 10,395 4.6 22.9
Germany (DAX)* 7,637 0.0 29.5
France (CAC)* 3,650 (0.3) 15.5
Italy (FTSEMIB)* 16,362 0.2 8.4
Spain (IBEX)* 8,192 (1.2) (4.4)
BRIC Equity Markets
India (Sensex) 19,445 1.1 25.8
India (Nifty) 5,908 1.0 27.8
China (Shanghai) 2,233 3.7 1.5
Russia (Micex)* 1,474 (0.2) 5.1
Brazil (Ibov)* 60,416 (1.0) 6.5
Asian Equity Markets
Hong Kong(HSI) 22,667 0.7 23.0
Korea (Kospi) 1,997 0.8 9.4
BSE Sector
WTD YTDBSE Mid Cap 7,093 1.4 38.1
BSE Small Cap 7,342 0.2 32.3
Auto 11,379 1.1 39.7
Bankex 14,330 1.3 56.6
Capital Goods 10,905 1.6 35.2
Power 1,982 1.7 10.3
Realty 2,090 2.0 51.9
Technology 3,430 1.5 1.5
FMCG 5,932 0.1 47.0
Metal 11,041 0.0 18.8
Institutional Activity
WTD MTD YTD
FII (Rs bn)* 11.9 179 1,223
MF (Rs bn)* -1.5 -33 -206Commodities Update
Unit Close WTD YTD
Crude Oil(Brent)** $/Bbl 111 1.5 3.0
Gold(OTC)** $/Oz 1,659 0.1 6.4
Silver(OTC)** $/Oz 30 0.1 7.9
Copper(LME)** $/MT 7,893 1.1 4.0
Aluminum(LME)** $/MT 2,046 (0.1) 2.6
Sugar(LIFFE)** $/MT 523 1.0 (13.1)
ZINC(LME)** $/MT 2,103 1.0 14.0
Currency
Close WTD YTD
INR/USD** 54.9 0.3 (3.3)
USD/EURO** 1.3 0.1 (1.6)
USD/J PY** 86.2 (2.3) (11.0)
% Change
Last Close
% Change
Last Close
Spot market
% Change
% Change
* As per Thursday closing** As per Friday 16:30 hrs ISTSource: Bloomberg
Top Nifty Movers Shakers
Index
Nifty & Institutional Flow
Major Event of the Week
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Money Weekly 28 December 2012
Page No: 2
Aditya Birla Money Limited
2nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400
Diesel prices likely to be hiked gradually (Rs.1/l a month); positive for HPCL and BPCL from short to medium term perspective.
The petroleum ministry has proposed a gradual rise in diesel prices, by 1 per litre every month over a 10-month period, in order to avoid
controversy lead by steep hikes and infrequent revisions. The ministry's has also proposed to gradually increase the prices of kerosene by
10 per litre over a two-year period. The under-recovery on subsidized diesel is ~9.28/litre while under-recovery of over 30 a litre onkerosene sold through the public distribution system. We believe the governments move to gradually increase the price if passes through it
will help oil marketing companies to recover their losses over a period of time.
Government announces various sops to boost exports.
The government has announced various measures to boost the countrys exports. Some of the measures announced a) extension of the
2% interest subsidy on bank loans for certain sectors for an additional year till March 2014 b) inclusion of the sub-sectors of engineering
goods as beneficiaries of the scheme and provision of incentives on incremental exports made to the US, the European Union and
countries in Asia and c)Government has also announced the introduction of the 2% interest subvention for exports to countries in South
Asia, Africa and Myanmar.
Domestic International
Government announces sops for exporters
Among the measures announced was an extension of the 2%
interest subvention scheme for an additional year till March
2014, inclusion of sub-sectors of engineering goods for interest
subvention and provision of incentives on incremental exports
made to U.S., EU and countries in Asia.
PM calls for phased fuel price hike
PM Manmohan Singh pitched for difficult reform measures at
the NDC meeting, which saw the average 12th Plan GDP
growth target scaled down to 8% from 9-9.5%. He also called for
a phased reduction in energy subsidies and an early
implementation of the GST.
10-Yr yield fell to lowest level since July
The 10-year yield has declined four basis points to 8.11%, the
lowest level since J uly, since Subbarao, RBI Governor, said that
easing inflation increases room for easing policy.
Foreign exchange reserve jump by $1.64bn
The foreign exchange reserves rose by a robust $1.64 bn to
touch $296.63 bn during the week ended Dec. 14 on the back of
healthy addition of core currency assets, the Reserve Bank said
Obama now pressing for limited fiscal-cliff deal
Summoning a sense of urgency about the looming fiscal cliff,
President Obama pressed lawmakers to accept a scaled-back
deal to avert tax increases on the middle class and protect soon-
to-expire unemployment insurance. He said hed immediately sign
a bill into law that extends tax cuts for those making $250,000 or
less.
Yen breaches 85 a dollar before Abe sworn
The J apanese yen weakened to the lowest since April 2011 before
Shinzo Abe takes over as prime minister amid expectations he will
push for further stimulus. Abe, whos liberal Democratic Party, won
a landslide victory in the Dec election.
Geithner warns Lawmakers deficit standoff risk
Treasury Secretary Geithner said he will take extraordinary
measures to postpone a U.S. default into early 2013 while
President Obama and Congress work out a deficit-reduction deal.
Source: Economic Times, Business Line, Business Standard, Times of India, DNA Money, Mint, Financial Express, Bloomberg
Macro Economy & Other News
Top Corporate News during the week
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Money Weekly 28 December 2012
Page No: 3
Aditya Birla Money Limited
2nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400
DevelopedIndex
value
Index
ReturnTechnology
Basic
MaterialsFinancials Telecom Industrials Utilities
Oil &
Gas
Health
Care
Consumer
Goods
% % % % % % % % %
US DOW 13096 -0.72 -2.14 -0.64 -1.42 -1.2 -1.52 ---- -2.08 -1.39 -2.21
UK FTSE 5954 0.23 -1.27 1.09 -0.17 -0.02 -0.14 0.09 0.09 -0.24 -0.58
GERMANY DAX 7637 0.01 -0.84 -0.7 -0.44 0.16 -0.86 -1.18 ---- -0.93 0.63
FRANCE CAC 3651 -0.28 -0.43 -0.22 -0.87 1.97 -0.2 0.57 1.33 0.28 0.11
J APAN NIKKEI 10395 4.58 1.4 2.07 4.47 1.57 2.02 -0.45 0.94 0.35 1.76
BRIC
BRAZIL BOVESPA 60416 -0.97 ---- -0.54 -1.16 -0.32 0.28 0.91 -7.31 -2.68 -0.23
RUSSIA MICEX 1474 -0.21 ---- -1.07 -1.49 1.23 -2.22 -1.21 0.76 -2.23 1.16
INDIA NIFTY 5908 1.04 -0.19 -1.67 -0.13 0.55 -1.26 0.07 -1.46 -0.92 -0.68
CHINA SANGHAI 2233 3.71 2.13 1.56 1.7 1.73 2.6 2.45 2.37 5.29 1.38
Asian
HONG KONG H S I 22667 0.71 -0.56 0.13 -0.11 -0.25 0.2 0.9 -0.52 ---- -0.52
KOREA KOSPI 1997 0.84 -0.39 -1.76 -0.49 -5.03 -1.09 -0.91 -0.43 3.23 0.34
SINGAPORE STRAITS 3192 0.89 ---- ---- -0.33 -0.12 2.97 ---- 0.75 ---- 1.51
TAIWAN TWSE 7700 2.11 0.62 2.54 0.58 0.21 1.09 1.31 -2.18 1.05 0.46 Source: Bloomberg, ABML ResearchNote: As per Friday 16:30 hrs IST
1Yr Forward P/E
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
Mar-07 Oct-07 May-08 Nov-08 Jun-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Feb-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Oct-12
Mean: 15.0
+1 SD
+2 SD
-1 SD
-2 SD
1Yr Forward P/B
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Mar-07 Nov-07 Jun-08 Feb-09 Sep-09 Apr-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Mar-12 Oct-12
-1 SD
Mean: 2.6
+1 SD
+2 SD
-2 SD
Source: NSE, ABML Research
Nifty Relative Valuation Metrics (1 Year Forward)
Global Equity Indices & Sectoral Performance
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Money Weekly 28 December 2012
Page No: 4
Aditya Birla Money Limited
2nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Brazil
BOVESPA
Russia
Micex
India
Nifty*
China
SHCOMP
US
DowJ
Germany
DAX
France
CAC
UK
FTSE
J apan
NIKKEI*
Hong Kong
His-
Korea
Kospi
Singapore
Straits
Taiwan
TWSE
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
PE CY11 PE CY12 EPS % Change
PE FY11* PE FY12*PE FY11* PE FY12*
Source: Bloomberg, ABML ResearchNote: As per Friday 16:30 hrs IST
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Brazil
BOVESPA
Russia
Micex
India
Nifty*
China
SHCOMP
US
DowJ
Germany
DAX
France
CAC
UK
FTSE
J apan
NIKKEI*
Hong Kong
His-
Korea
Kospi
Singapore
Straits
Taiwan
TWSE
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
(%)
P/BV CY11 P/BV CY12 Dividend Y ield CY12
PE FY11* PE FY12*PE FY11* PE FY12*
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
Note: As per Friday 16:30 hrs IST
RoE
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
17%
19%
21%
23%
Brazil
BOVESPA
Russia
Micex
India
Nifty*
China
SHCOMP
US
DowJ
Germany
DAX
France
CAC
UK
FTSE
J apan
NIKKEI*
Hong Kong
His-
Korea
Kospi
Singapore
Straits
Taiwan
TWSE
CY 11 CY 12 FY11* FY12*FY11* FY12*FY11* FY12*
Source: Bloomberg, ABML ResearchNote: As per Friday 16:30 hrs IST
Global Indices Forward P/BV
Global Indices RoE
Global Indices Forward P/E
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Money Weekly 28 December 2012
Page No: 5
Aditya Birla Money Limited
2nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400
Government Bond Yields
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
Apr-
09
Nov-0
9
Jun-1
0
Jan-1
1
Aug-1
1
Mar-
12
Oc
t-12
(%)
GIND5YR Index GIND10YR Index
Monthly changed in Govt. Bond Yield Curve
8.238.18
7.91
8.12
8.23
8.28
8.22
8.17
7.95
8.20
8.318.35
7.8
7.9
8.0
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
3m 6m 1Yr 5Yr 10Yr 15Yr
(%)
27-Dec-12 27-Nov-12
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
5 Yr Corp Bond Spread
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Jan-0
9
Aug-0
9
Fe
b-1
0
Aug-1
0
Mar-
11
Sep-1
1
Mar-
12
Oc
t-12
(%)
5 Yr AAA Corporate Bond Yield 5 Yr Govt Bond Yield
10 Year Corp Bond Spread
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Jan-0
9
Aug-0
9
Fe
b-1
0
Aug-1
0
Mar-11
Sep-1
1
Mar-12
Oct-12
(%)
10 Yr AAA Corporate Bond Yield 10 Yr Govt Bond Yield
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
Certificate of Depos it Rates
1.5
3.5
5.5
7.5
9.5
11.5
13.5
Jan/09
Aug/09
Apr/10
Nov/10
Ju
l/11
Mar/12
Oct/12
(%)
CD 3month CD 6month CD 12month
Commercial Paper Rates
3
5
7
9
11
13
Fe
b/09
Aug
/09
Fe
b/10
Aug
/10
Mar/
11
Sep
/11
Mar/
12
Oc
t/12
(%)
CP 3month CP 6month CP 12 month
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
CD & CP Rates Movement
G-sec AAA Corporate Bond Spread (India)
Government Bond Yield (India)
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Money Weekly 28 December 2012
Page No: 6
Aditya Birla Money Limited
2nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400
Index of Industrial Production
158
178
171
168
180
175
188
164 1
70
168
167
165
163
140
150
160
170
180
190
Oct-11
Nov-1
1
Dec-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb-1
2
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-12
( 4 )
6 8
( 1)
( 1)
7
(13)
4
( 1) (1) ( 1) (1) 5
- 5
6
31
4
- 3
- 1
2
- 2 0
2-1
8
(15)(10)
(5)
-5
10
Oct-11
Nov-1
1
Dec-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb-1
2
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-12
(10)(5)
-
5
10
MoM (%) (LHS) YoY (%) (RHS)
% in Industrial Production
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
Consumer Durables Index
288
287 3
36
298
298
298 3
27
306
310
307
307
280 3
03
100
200
300
400
Oct-11
Nov-1
1
Dec-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb-1
2
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-12
( 7)
30
( 4 )
4
10
( 6 )
1(1)
( 0 )
( 9 )
8
110
105
- 8 - 6
1
510 9
1
1
- 2
16
(10)(5)
- 5
1015
Oct-11
Nov-1
1
Dec-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb-1
2
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-12
-10
0
10
20
MoM (%) (LHS) Y oY (%) (RHS)
% in Consumer Durables Index
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
Consumer Non Durables Index
121
168
133140 1
72
1
60
1
56
141
138
138
134 131 128
0
50
100
150
200
Oct-11
Nov-1
1
Dec-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb-1
2
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-12
( 4 )16
2 3
(2 ) ( 5)
( 2 )
(10)
( 2 ) ( 0 ) ( 2 )
( 3 )
( 2 )
4
0
15
14
11
4
1
2
( 0) ( 1) 1
6
2
10
(20)(10)-
1020
30
Oct-11
Nov-1
1
Dec-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb-1
2
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-12
(5)-5
1015
20
MoM (%) (LHS) Y oY (%) (RHS)
% in Consume r Non Durables Index
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
Capital Goods Index
225 2
57
242
257
264
262 3
13
208
227
235
234
253
250
0
200
400
Oct-11
Nov-1
1
Dec-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb-1
2
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-12
(21)
14
2( 3 )
2
2 0
( 3 4 )
93
( 0 )
8( 1)
( 3 )
( 2 6 )
( 5)
(16)
( 3 )
10
( 2 0 )(21)
( 9 )
( 2 8 )
( 6 )( 3 )
(13)
8
(40)(30)(20)(10)-102030
Oct-11
Nov-1
1
Dec-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb-1
2
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-12
-30
-20-10
010
20
MoM (%) (LHS) Y oY (%) (RHS)
% in Capital Goods Index
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
Capital Goods
Consumer Non Durables
Consumer Durables
Index of Industrial Production
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Money Weekly 28 December 2012
Page No: 7
Aditya Birla Money Limited
2nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400
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