8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
1/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
Millennium Consumption Goals (MCGs)
can preserve the planet, protect the poor
and promote prosperity
Professor Mohan Munasinghewww.mohanmunasinghe.com
Chairman, Munasinghe Institute for Development (MIND), ColomboProfessor of Sustainable Development, SCI, Univ. of Manchester, UK
Distinguished Guest Professor, Peking University, ChinaShared the 2007 Nobel Prize for Peace (Vice Chair, IPCC-AR4)
Paper presented at the
Club of Rome International Conference onFuture of Energy and Interconnected Challenges in the 21st Century
Basel, 17 October 2011
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
2/95
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
3/95
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
4/95
M I N D
Example of Resource Shortage: Peak Oil
& Bridging the Oil Demand-Supply Gap
Past Production of Oil
ForecastProduction
Demand
Growth
Deprivation, war
City design/lifestyle
Pricing / taxes
Transportmode shifts
Efficiency
Other petroleum fuelsgas, tar-sands
Other fuels
Gbbls/year
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
5/95
M I N D
Climate Change IPCC AR4 Main Findings Global warming in unequivocal. Total radiative forcing of the climatenow is unprecedented in several thousand years, due to rising
concentrations of GHG (CO2, CH4 & NO2).
Humans activities since the 18th century are very likely to have caused net
warming of Earths climate, dominating over the last 50 years. More temp.
and sea level rise is inevitable, even with existing GHG concentrations. Long term unmitigated climate change would likely exceed the capacityto adapt, of natural managed and human systems.
Adaptation measures are available, but must be systematically developed
Mitigation technologies are also available, but better policies andmeasures (PAM) are needed to realize their potential.
Poor countries and poor groups are most vulnerable to warming,sea level rise, precipitation changes and extreme events. Most socio-
economic sectors, ecological systems and human health will suffer. Making development more sustainable (MDMS) is the mosteffective solution - by integrating climate change policy intosustainable development strategy.
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
6/95
M I N D
WHAT ARE OUR VALUESAND HOW WELL DO WEESTABLISH PRIORITIES ?
Dealing with the Triple CrisisBubbles
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
7/95
M I N D
Financial Markets
Productive Economic Assets
Bubbles
Triple crisis bubbles driven by greed enjoy now & pay later 1A few get rich quickly, many innocents pay a heavy price afterwards
e.g., 2008
asset crisis
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
8/95
M I N D
Financial Markets
Productive Economic Assets
Bubbles
Triple crisis bubbles driven by greed enjoy now & pay later 2A few get rich quickly, many innocents pay a heavy price afterwards
Growth2008 asset
crisis
Poverty
Inequity
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
9/95
M I N D
Financial Markets
Productive Economic Assets
Bubbles
Bio-geo-physical Resources
Externalities
Triple crisis bubbles driven by greed enjoy now & pay later 3A few get rich quickly, many innocents pay a heavy price afterwards
Growth2008 asset
crisis
Climate
change
Poverty
Inequity
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
10/95
M I N D
Financial Markets
Productive Economic Assets
Bubbles
Bio-geo-physical Resources
Externalities
Triple crisis bubbles driven by greed enjoy now & pay later 4A few get rich quickly, many innocents pay a heavy price afterwards
HumanValues
/Choices
GrowthGovt. Bailout >$5 tri ll ion (1012) Aid/yr ~$100 billion (109)
2008 asset
crisis
Climate
change
Few billion $
Poverty
Inequity
Asset bubble >$100 trillion (1012), Global GDP $60 tri ll ionWorld Military Expenditures: $1.5 tril lion in 2010
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
11/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
Poverty, Inequity, PandemicsEnvironmental degradationResource Shortage, ConflictSocial polarization, Terrorism
Climate Change
Unrestrained market forces increase risk of conflict (erosion of
ethical & moral values underpinning civilization)
Chaos, Break-downConflict, rivalry and
competition for
resources overwhelm all
efforts to impose order
Fortress WorldLocal, regional & global groups
protect their interests within enclaves
How will we cope with such a
world?
Barbarization: We need MCGs to avoid this risky future
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
12/95
M I N D
THE WAY FORWARD
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
13/95
M I N D
Asset crisis: have we learnt from experience?Are we not returning to business as usual?
2009
FinancialSector
JoblessPoor
2010-11
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
14/95
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
15/95
M I N D
Better Use of the Momentum for Change
1.Build for long term. Make Development MoreSustainable -- with balanced consideration ofsustainable development triangle (economic,
social and environmental elements). Transcendconventional boundaries using innovative,holistic, integrative approaches.
2.Transform global governance structure. Reformmarket regulation. Make UN system more effective& responsive. Make IMF/World Bank more
inclusive. Give more weight to G20 (with advicefrom B20, C20, etc.)
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
16/95
M I N D
Global Economic Balance Shifting
Towards Emerging EconomiesFor the past decade, emerging and developingeconomies have grown over 5% faster thanadvanced economies. The global balance ofeconomic momentum has shifted.
US, Europe and Japan are still struggling to comeout of the financial crisis, and facing major issuesincluding low growth and high debts.
Emerging economies like China, India and Brazilare forging ahead after only minor initial downturns in growth.
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
17/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
Way Forward - A Long Term Vision of SD: 1Levels
Main
Issues
(surface)
Indicators
Poverty, Inequity, Exclusion,
Resource Conflicts, Harm to
Environment (including CC)
Human Interventions
High risk from unrestrained,
myopic market forces (Washington
consensus, globalisation etc.)
Reactive: piecemeal - mainly govt.
Source: Munasinghe (2007), IPCC, MA, GTI
Now
Time
Business-as-usual poses unacceptablerisks for the future
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
18/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
Way Forward - A Long Term Vision of SD: 2Levels
Main
Issues
(surface)
Immediate
Drivers
(sub-surface)
Indicators
Poverty, Inequity, Exclusion,
Resource Conflicts, Harm to
Environment (including CC)
Consumption Patterns
Production/Technology
Population
Governance
Human Interventions
High risk from unrestrained,
myopic market forces (Washington
consensus, globalisation etc.)
Reactive: piecemeal - mainly govt.
Making development moresustainable (MDMS) with
systematic policy reform to manage
market forces (Sustainomics)
Proactive: integrated, harmonious
approach - govt., business, civil soc.
Source: Munasinghe (2007), IPCC, MA, GTI
Now
Transition
Time
The SD transition requires integratedsolutions to multiple problems
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
19/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
Way Forward - A Long Term Vision of SD: 3Levels
Main
Issues
(surface)
Immediate
Drivers
(sub-surface)
Underlying
Pressures(deep)
Indicators
Poverty, Inequity, Exclusion,
Resource Conflicts, Harm to
Environment (including CC)
Consumption Patterns
Production/Technology
Population
Governance
Basic Needs
Social Power Structure
Values, Perceptions, Choices
Knowledge Base
Human Interventions
High risk from unrestrained,
myopic market forces (Washington
consensus, globalisation etc.)
Reactive: piecemeal - mainly govt.
Making development moresustainable (MDMS) with
systematic policy reform to manage
market forces (Sustainomics)
Proactive: integrated, harmonious
approach - govt., business, civil soc.
Fundamental global sustainable
dev. transition catalysed by grass
roots citizens movements, & driven
by social justice, ethics and equity,innovative leadership, policies, info.
flows, tech. (new SD paradigm)
Proactive: civil soc., business, govt.
Source: Munasinghe (2007), IPCC, MA, GTI
Now
Transition
Long Term
Time
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
20/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
Way Forward - A Long Term Vision of SD: 4Levels
Immediate
Drivers
(sub-surface)
Indicators
Consumption Patterns
Production/Technology
Population
Governance
Making development moresustainable (MDMS) with
systematic policy reform to manage
market forces (Sustainomics)
Proactive: integrated, harmonious
approach - govt., business, civil soc.
Source: Munasinghe (2007), IPCC, MA, GTI
Transition
Time Human Interventions
We need integrated policies addressingmany issues within national SD strategy
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
21/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
WHY ?
HOW ?
is business-as-usual risky for humanity
We face multiple economic, environmental andsocial threats, while responses are inadequate
can we move forward to transform dangerouscurrent trends into a safer and better future
Start the transition by making development more
sustainable (MDMS)
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
22/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
HOW DO WE GET THERE ?
Addressing Complex, Multiple,Interlinked Sustainable Development
issues within the IntegratedSUSTAINOMICS Framework
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
23/95
M I N D
Core Concept 1: Make Development More Sustainable
with EMPOWERMENT, ACTION & FORESIGHTThere are many definitions of sustainable development, and its
precise meaning still remains elusive (and perhaps unreachable).
PRACTICAL TEST FOR HUMAN ACTIONS:Does the activity make development more (or less) sustainable?
Making development more sustainable (MDMS) is a more practical
incremental strategy that is easiersimpler implement because manyunsustainable activities are easier to recognize and eliminate.
Parallel track strategy:
1. Short to medium term make development more sustainable
(apply best practice).2. Long term - aim for ideal goal of sustainable development
(identify next practice).
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
24/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
Lets move forward NOW!! If
we climb uphill, we will
reach the peak eventually
We cannot see the peak!!
Lets stop to discuss &
analyze how to reach it.
Sustainable DevelopmentPeak including climate
change (covered by clouds)
Many obviously unsustainable practices exist today.MDMS encourages us to eliminate them NOW! Examplesinclude energy wastage and deforestation.
EMPOWERED to Make Development More
Sustainable (MDMS) BEST PRACTICEANALYSING SD and CC
NEXT PRACTICE
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
25/95
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
26/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
MDMS: Producers & Corporate
Social Responsibility (CSR) Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) is a concept whereby
companies voluntarily cater to the interests of societybytaking responsibility for the impact of their activities oncustomers, suppliers, employees, shareholders, communitiesand the environment in all aspects of their operations.
This obligation is seen to extend beyond the statutory andconventional obligation to comply with legislation and seek
profits.
This approach is becoming formalized through sustainabilityaccounting and reporting that focuses on the triple bottomline (financial, social and environmental).
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
27/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
Development- Sectors (Agriculture, Energy, Industry,
Transport, Health, etc.)- Systems (Environmental, ecological, etc.)
- Communities (Poor, Vulnerable, etc.)
Sustai
nableDe
v.
(Social,Economic,Environmen
tal)
Env
ironment
(natura
lvariability)
SCP
MDMS: Govt.-National Level IntegrationMake decision makers see climate change as a key element
of the national sustainable development strategy
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
28/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
Ecosystem
Ecological
Services
SolarEnergy Radi
ated
Energ
y
The capacity of the ecosystem may become overloaded by the growing
socio-economic subsystem (broken lines).
Nat.Res.Energy Was
tes
Pollutio
n
Socioeconomic
Subsystem
MDMS: Global restructuring (not reduction)
of development and growth - 1
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
29/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
MDMS: Global restructuring (not reduction)
of development and growth - 2(integrating CC into SD - rounding the rectangle)
Socioeconomic
Subsystem
Socioeconomic
Subsystem
Unsustainable Sustainable
Ecosystem Ecosystem
C C 2 H i h SD T i l f
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
30/95
M I N DMunasinghe Institute for Development
Economic
Social empowerment/governance
inclusion/consultation
institutions/values
Environmental resilience/biodiversity
natural resources
pollution
Sustainable Development Triangle harmonising key elements andinterconnections (corners, sides and centre) Source: Munasinghe [1992], Rio Earth Summit
growthefficiency
stability
Core Concept 2: Harmonise the SD Triangle forBALANCE & INTEGRATION - 1
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
31/95
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
32/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
ENERGY
Supply technology-oriented, energy analysis, technical efficiency,thermodynamic laws, etc.
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
33/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
ENERGYECONOMY
Supply technology-oriented, energy analysis, technical efficiency,thermodynamic laws, etc.
Supply-demand balance, price and income elasticity of demand,cost-benefit analysis, least cost investment planning, demandmanagement, long run marginal cost pricing, etc.
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
34/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
ENERGYECONOMY
Supply technology-oriented, energy analysis, technical efficiency,thermodynamic laws, etc.
Supply-demand balance, price and income elasticity of demand,cost-benefit analysis, least cost investment planning, demandmanagement, long run marginal cost pricing, etc.
Poverty, equity, basic energy needs, affordability, social assessment
SOCIETY
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
35/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
ENERGYECONOMY
ENVIRON
-MENT
Supply technology-oriented, energy analysis, technical efficiency,thermodynamic laws, etc.
Supply-demand balance, price and income elasticity of demand,cost-benefit analysis, least cost investment planning, demandmanagement, long run marginal cost pricing, etc.
Poverty, equity, basic energy needs, affordability, social assessment
Environmental and social assessment, valuation, extended CBA,multi-criteria analysis, integrated national energy planning andpricing, multi-sector macro-models, etc.
SOCIETY
SED F k i t i t
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
36/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
Economic
Social empowerment
inclusion/consultation
institutions/governance
Environmental resilience/biodiversity
natural resources
pollution
intr
a-generational
equity
basic
needs/liv
eliho
ods
inter-generational equity values/culture
valu
ation/in
ternalisatio
n
inciden
ceofim
pacts
Sustainable
Energy
Development
(SED)
Poverty-Equity
Sustainable Development Triangle - key elements and interconnections
(corners, sides and centre) Source: Munasinghe [1992], Rio Earth Summit
growth
efficiency
stability
SED Framework society, economy, environment
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
37/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
Assets for Sustainable Consumption & Production
Social
Capital
Human Made
Capital
Natural
CapitalSocial Capital
Human
Cultural
Sustainable
EnergyDevelopment
Source: Munasinghe (1992), Rio Earth Summit
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
38/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
Key role played by Social Capital embedded in
Civil Society: ignored, undervalued, invisible
At individual level: is built on personal networksthat help us enormously in our private and
professional lives.
At community and national levels: is the invisibleglue that binds society together involving values-ethics, culture, behaviour, and social linkages.
Indigenous knowledge and culture is often animportant but unrecognised source of social capital.
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
39/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
Core Concept 3: Transcend Boundaries with
INNOVATION & FRESH IDEAS
Values replace unsustainable, unethical values Disciplinary complex issues need all disciplines
Space spans local to global scales
Time spans days to centuries Stakeholder need to include all stakeholders
Operational full cycle from data to application
Unsustainable Elements in SD Triangle
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
40/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
Unsustainable Elements in SD Triangle
Social
Capital
Economic Debt
Unsustainable
borrowing to
support
consumption
Environmental
Debt
Unsustainable
cons. & prod,depleted NR
Social Values
Greed, Selfish
Individualism,
Elitism
Drivers of
UnsustainableDevelopment
Source: Adapted from Munasinghe (1992), Rio Earth Summit
T di U t i bl V l
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
41/95
M I N DMunasinghe Institute for Development Sustainable Consumption Institute SCI
University of Manchester
Build essential ethical and moral values
(especially among youth)
Greed and selfishness are unsustainable
Selflessness, altruism, enlightened self-
interest, and respect for nature will makedevelopment more sustainable
Transcending Unsustainable Values
Ethical Dimensions of Climate Change 2006
Interfaith Declaration on Climate Change 2009
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
42/95
M I N DMunasinghe Institute for Development
Transcending Stakeholder Boundaries to Build
Cooperation for Sustainable Development
Social
Capital
Business
Govern-
ment
Civil
Society
Coalition forSustainable
Development
Promote positive interactions among government, civil society andbusiness to strengthen local, national and global governance
Source: Munasinghe (1992), Rio Earth Summit
Transcending Operational Barriers
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
43/95
M I N D
Transcending Operational Barriers
Needs Better Stakeholder Cooperation Global
Regional National
Local
Community
Individual
Pragmatic balance between subsidiarity andintegration is essential
Integration
Subsidiarity
Top Down
Bottom upSpecificProjects
Strategy-Policy
Core Concept 4: Full cycle application of integrative
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
44/95
M I N DMunasinghe Institute for Development
There are many practical analytical
tools and policy options to integrate CCresponses into SD strategy (from global
to local levels)
There are many available case studies
and best practice examples involving
sustainomics applications
Core Concept 4: Full cycle application of integrative
tools, from data gathering to practical policy
IMPLEMENTATION
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
45/95
M I N DMunasinghe Institute for Development
Choosing Appropriate SD Indicators- Social
- Environmental- Economic
- Institutional
many indicators are available; thus correct
choice is critical for specific task at hand
I t ti l ti l t l d ti l li ti
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
46/95
M I N DMunasinghe Institute for DevelopmentMunasinghe Institute for Development
M I N D
Integrative Analytical Tools
1. Restructuring Growth to Make
Development More Sustainable (MDMS)
2. Optimisation and Durability
3. SD Analysis (Macro Level)
4. Action Impact Matrix (AIM)
5. Green Accounting (SEEA-SNA)
6. Integrated Models (IAM, CGE, etc.)
7. SD Analysis (Micro Level)
8. Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA), Cost-Benefit
Analysis (CBA) and Economic Valuation
9. SD Indicators
Application
LevelsA. Global-
transnational
B. National-
macroeconomic
C. Subnational-sectoral
D. Local-project
Integrative analytical tools and practical applications
(linking across global, national and local levels)
Linkag
esAcrossLevels
WHY ? i b i l i k f h it
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
47/95
M I N DMunasinghe Institute for Development
WHY ?
WHAT ?
HOW ?
examples exist of integrated responses to issues
Many tools & best practice applications alreadyexist worldwide: SCP and MCG are key tools
is business-as-usual risky for humanity
We face multiple economic, environmental andsocial threats, while responses are inadequate
can we move forward to transform dangerouscurrent trends into a safer and better future
Start the transition by making development more
sustainable (MDMS)
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
48/95
M I N DMunasinghe Institute for Development
Global Application: CopenhagenCOP15 (Dec. 2009) Challenge
Making Development More
Sustainable via Tunneling:
Potential Post-Kyoto Framework
for Jointly Managing ClimateRisk & Right to Develop
Climate Justice Equitable Allocation
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
49/95
M I N D
Climate Justice Equitable Allocation
of Per Capita Carbon Emissions
Adaptation Burden & Equity: CC SDAd t ti i th fi t i it f d l i t i th t
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
50/95
M I N DMunasinghe Institute for Development
Adaptation is the first priority of developing countries that
are most vulnerable to climate change. Help is also crucial. Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately
upon the poorest countries and the poorest personswithin all countries, exacerbating inequities in health status
and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources. Net economic effects will be negative in most developing
countries
Impacts will be worse - many areas are already flood anddrought prone, and economic sectors are climate sensitive
Lower capacity to adaptbecause of a lack of financial,institutional and technological capacity, and access toknowledge
Per capita GHG emissions and population 2004
Mitigation Responsibility & Equity: SD CC
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
51/95
M I N DMunasinghe Institute for Development
p p pg p y q yMitigation leadership is the main responsibil ity of industrial
countries with high per capita GHG emissions
Annex 1 avg.
Non-Annex I avg.
MDMS via Tunneling & global cooperation to
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
52/95
M I N DMunasinghe Institute for Development
ClimateRisk
(e.g.percapitaGHG
emis
sions)
Development Level (e.g. per capita income)
manage Climate Risk & Right to Develop - 1
Source: M. Munasinghe (1995) "Making Growth More Sustainable,"Ecological Economics, 15:121-4.
Poor
Middle Income
Rich Today
MDMS via Tunneling: global cooperation to
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
53/95
M I N DMunasinghe Institute for Development
ClimateRisk
(e.g.percapitaGHG
emis
sions)
Development Level (e.g. per capita income)
manage Climate Risk & Right to Develop - Step 2
Source: M. Munasinghe (1995) "Making Growth More Sustainable,"Ecological Economics, 15:121-4.
Poor
Middle Income
Rich
Incentives/resources for developing countries1. Adaptation fund (safety net) for poorest and
most vulnerable.
Transform -
Decarbonise
MDMS via Tunneling: global cooperation to
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
54/95
M I N DMunasinghe Institute for DevelopmentMunasinghe Institute for Development
ClimateRisk
(e.g.percapitaGHG
emis
sions)
Development Level (e.g. per capita income)
manage Climate Risk & Right to Develop - Step 3
Source: M. Munasinghe (1995) "Making Growth More Sustainable,"Ecological Economics, 15:121-4.
Poor
Middle Income
Rich
Incentives/resources for developing countries1. Adaptation fund (safety net) for poorest and
most vulnerable.2. Technology cooperation/support to leapfrog
Leapfrog
Transform -
Decarbonise
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
55/95
M I N D
Sustainable Consumption &
Production Pathway (SCP) toSustainable Development (SD)
Millennium Consumption Goals(MCG) are important tool
Sustainable Consumption & ProductionPath to Sustainable Development
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
56/95
M I N D
Consumers, business and climatechange
Principal authors:Mohan Munasinghe, Partha Dasgupta, Dale Southerton,Alice Bows, Andrew McMeekin
Editor: Gabrielle Walker
Path to Sustainable Development
SCI Launch Meeting in London Oct. 2009Report endorsed by participants including: CEO Forum: Heads of f irms like TESCO, Coca Cola, Unilever, Reckitt-Benckiser, Johnson SC, Nestle, Danone, and others ~ one tril lion $ of annual sales
Senior Political Figures (including David Cameron, UK Prime Minister) Leading Academics and Environmental NGOs
Paper
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
57/95
M I N D
WHY WE URGENTLY
NEED MILLENNIUMCONSUMPTION GOALS
(MCGs)
www.millenniumconsumptiongoals.org
No. of Earths to meet Human ConsumptionI 2010 d 1 5 th b 2030 l t 2 E th
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
58/95
M I N D
Num
berofEarths
Sustainable
BAU
In 2010 we need 1.5 earths; by 2030 almost 2 Earths
Unsustainable
oneearth
2010 2030
Unfair World Income Distribution 2000Ch Gl
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
59/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
Champagne GlassThe richest fifth of theWorlds Population receives83% of the Worlds Income
One fifth of the
Worlds Population
The poorest fifth of the WorldsPopulation receives 1.4% of total
World Income
Ratio of 60:1between
highest and
lowest 20% !!
83%
Addressing Issues of Poverty and Wealth:Sustainable Consumption & Production
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
60/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
ClimateRisk
(e.g.percapitaGHG
emissions)
Development Level (e.g. per capita income)
Sustainable Consumption & Production
Source: M. Munasinghe (1995) "Making Growth More Sustainable,"Ecological Economics, 15:121-4.
Poor
Middle Income
Rich
Incentives/resources for developing countries1. Adaptation safety net for poorest and most
vulnerable.2. Technology cooperation/support for mitigation
Transform -
Decarbonise
Leapfrog
Food for a Week:
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
61/95
M I N D
Food for a Week:Affluent FamilyUnsustainable musttransform/decarbonize
towards sustainablity:MillenniumConsumption Goals
Source:Source: MenzelMenzel, 2005, 2005
Poor FamilyUnsustainable/Unethical must leapfrog/tunnel toprosperity: Millennium
Development Goals
Economic Goal in the SD Triangle is Crowding Out
Social and Environmental Goals Unsustainable!
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
62/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
Social
Capital
Economic Goal
(Growth of MaterialOutput and Consumption
by the Rich)
Environmental
Goal (Protect
Nature)
Social Goal
(Protect the Poor
and Weakest)
Source: Munasinghe (1992), Rio Earth Summit
Social and Environmental Goals Unsustainable!
The consumption of the rich is destroying theglobal natural resource base and crowding out
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
63/95
M I N D
global natural resource base and crowding out
development prospects of the poor.As resources (like energy, water and food)become scarce, the market solution is for
prices to rise but this will simply rationresources in favour of the rich and deprive thepoor of even their basic needs. Recent world
events show that deprivation leads to violence
We can protect the poor, preserve nature andpromote prosperity by complementing the MDGswith Millennium Consumption Goals to make the
rich consume more sustainably.
Millennium Consumption Goals
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
64/95
M I N D
1.Target group:Top 20% percentile of global income earners
2. Main MCGs aim to reduce:Carbon emissionsEnergy useWater usePollution & Waste (air, water, solid and toxic waste)Land use and Biodiversity
3. Other MCGs:
Food, diet and health, lifestyles, livelihoods and work,financial system, long term fundamental shifts in behaviour
Basic Concepts
Millennium Consumption Goals (MCG):Advantages of New Pathway to Sustainability
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
65/95
M I N D
g y y
1. Targeted: 20% of richest percentile (1.4 billion people) account for >80% ofconsumption. Small changes towards sustainable consumption can reduceburden on environment
2. Soft Multilevel Strategy Bottom Up & Top Down: Seeks to influence voluntarybehaviour at individual, community, city, enterprise, regional, and country
levels. Complements top-down policy, global targets (UN, govt.). Middle levelpolicymakers (mayors, CEOs, etc.) play key bridging role.
3. Complements MDG: Builds MCG-MDG links & protects consumption of poor
4. Fractal and Subsidiary: Basic concept unchanged (like snowflake) and effective
implementation possible at finer levels of detail.
5. Faster Response: Provides quicker results compared to top down governmentpolicies and long term industrial investments. Momentum build up over time.
6. Transnational: Cuts across national boundaries and avoids self-interest based
approach of governments and interest groups
7. Motivation: Rich are key stakeholders acting with enlightened self-interest,
better education, more influence and resources
8. Integrates Sustainable Consumption and Production: Links with producers and
global supply chains
MCG Path to SCP, GE and SD
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
66/95
M I N D
MCG
Sust. Cons.& Prod.
Green Econ.
Sust.
Dev.
Agreed &VoluntaryMCG
BuildingBlocks
Rooms Castle
,
Millennium Consumption GoalsInitiative (MCGI) & Network (MCGN)
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
67/95
M I N D
The Millennium Consumption Goals Initiative (MCGI) was launched tomove this idea forward. It is being pursued by a broad coalition ofstakeholders - the MCG Network (MCGN). It is action-oriented, multi-level, pluralistic and transnational. The MCGI seeks to be as inclusive aspossible, and follows aflexible, multi-track approach. It is movingforward in the UN. Meanwhile, action is being taken NOW by individuals,families, communities, enterprises, cit ies, regions and countries. Thesepioneers are already developing their own specific versions of MCG,
implementing them, and monitoring and reporting progress - there is noneed to wait for broad multilateral agreements at the UN-global level!Thus, MCG is being pursued by the will ing, at whatever level theychoose, and focusing on the goals they prefer carbon emissions isthe favourite, but energy and water are also attractive. A broaderenabling framework of goals and policies will emerge gradually fromdiscussions at UN/govt. level. Support MCGI, Set Voluntary MCG !
Initiative (MCGI) & Network (MCGN)
Pioneering Voluntary MCG
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
68/95
M I N D
Cities and CommunitiesCity of Munich, Germany1. By 2030, to halve per capita CO2 emissions in relation to 1990.2. By 2025, to meet all Munichs electr icity demand from renewable energy.
Naestved Community, DenmarkBy 2030, reduce carbon emissions by 50%.
BusinessNovozymes, Denmark
By 2015, reduce CO2 emissions by 75 million tonnes through customers
application of Novozymes products relating to bioenergy, agriculture,household care and industrial processes
Academic and ResearchMunasinghe Institute for Development, Sri Lanka
From 2011 onwards, become 100% carbon neutral
Civil SocietyA number of individuals have declared their personal MCG targets.
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
69/95
M I N D
UN Agenda
1. Proposal Jan. 2011 at UNCSD 2012 PrepCom
2. Launch meeting at CSD19 sessions May 2011
3. Invited speech to Ministers at High Level
sessions at CSD19 May 20114. Workshop at UNDPI, Bonn Sept. 2011
5. To be discussed at UNCSD 2012 (Rio+20 Earth
Summit)
Top Down and Bottom Up
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
70/95
M I N D
Chapeau paragraph summarizing MCG idea
UN mandate (Rio+20) endorsed by Governments
8-10 broad areas suitable for MCGs
General outline by consensus (inputs from experts)
Specific goals and moniterable targets
Start with voluntary MCGs by cities, communities andcompanies, followed by formal govt. commitments
approaches can go in parallel
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
71/95
Sustainable Consumption empowers householdsInfluence peoples behaviour to promote sustainable change
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
72/95
M I N D
Empower and motivate using prices, labelsinformation, psychology and advertising.
Change values, habits and socio-cultural
contexts to shift to low-carbon products and
behaviour. Eg., public attitude to smoking
Adapt material and physical elements of
production - goods and infrastructures are
inter-connected
Using MCGs, social capital embedded within individuals andcommunities, can be better mobil ized, organized, and empowered
to work synergistically with business and influence government, tomake development more sustainable (MDMS)!
Individual
Community
Producer
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
73/95
M I N D
Take charge of your life!Better if you define meaningfulconsumption rather than letting
meaningless consumptiondefine you
Sustainable Production: Insights fromWorkshops on Business & Sustainability for
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
74/95
M I N D
p y
Senior Managers of Leading Multinationals
Recent Examples: BASF, Germany (Chemicals)
TESCO, UK (Supermarkets)
Unilever, Coca Cola, Reckit-Benkeiser, Johnson SC,Danone, Nestle (Retail)
Petrobras, Brazil (Energy, Oil and Gas) OPEC (energy, oil and gas)
Sime Darby, Malaysia (Plantations Conglomerate)
Novozymes, Denmark (Biotechnology)
Vale, Brazil (Mining) Siemens, Shanghai Electric Group (Heavy Industry)
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
75/95
PRODUCTION - Life cycle analysis of carbon
emission hot spots along the supply/value chain: 2
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
76/95
M I N D
p g pp y
Source: Adapted from Munasinghe et al. (2009)
0%1%5%47%19%28%Orange Juice (Brazil freshly squeezed 1L)
1%95%1%1%2%Light bulb (UK 11W)
Recycling
&
disposal
Cons-
umer
use
Ret-
ail
Logistics
distribution
transport
Manuf-
acture &
processing
Raw
material
production
PRODUCTION - Life cycle analysis of carbon
emission hot spots along the supply/value chain: 3
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
77/95
M I N DSource: Adapted from Munasinghe et al. (2009)
1%3%10%4%5%76%Milk (UK, National Tesco)
0%1%5%47%19%28%Orange Juice (Brazil freshly squeezed 1L)
1%95%1%1%2%Light bulb (UK 11W)
Recycling
&
disposal
Cons-
umer
use
Ret-
ail
Logistics
distribution
transport
Manuf-
acture &
processing
Raw
material
production
Bringing Sustainable Consumers & Producers Together: 1Sustainability Culture - Making Development More Sustainable (MDMS)
Sustainability leadership by a few consumers and producers
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
78/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
Sustainable
Consumers
Sustainable
Producers
CivilSociety
Busi-ness
y p y p
Bringing Sustainable Consumers & Producers Together: 2Sustainability Culture - Making Development More Sustainable (MDMS)
Sustainable behaviour spreads throughout the country
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
79/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
Other
Sustainable
Consumers
Sustainable
Consumers
Sustainable
Producers
Other
Sustainable
ProducersMCG
Govt.
CivilSociety
Busi-ness
p g y
Working with Responsible Media
in Making Development More Sustainable
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
80/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
Social
Capital
Business
Govern-
ment
Civil
Society
Dissemination
Ethical Media
Media must play greater role in disseminating correct information tostrengthen civil society and business in supporting and influencing
government to move towards a more sustainable development path.
Source: Munasinghe (1992), Rio Earth Summit
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
81/95
Mildly optimistic final message for the World
Multiple global problems pose a serious challenge to us all
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
82/95
M I N D
the economic crisis, poverty, resource scarcities, ecosystemharm, climate change, etc. are interlinked.Although the issues are complex and serious, these problemscan be solved together, provided we begin now.
We know enough already to take the first steps towardsmaking development more sustainable (MDMS), that willtransform the risky business-as-usual scenario into a saferand more secure future.
Values and governance systems (at all levels) must be changedto deal with multiple crises in an integrated way.Business and civil society can help government in mobilisingresources, identifying issues and implementing solutions.
MCG & SCP can play key roles in implementing new 21stcentury models of sustainable development
Alternative to Optimism is UNTHINKABLE !
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
83/95
M I N D
Four horsemen of the Apocalypse: famine, plague, war, death
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
84/95
DEVO VASSATU KALENA
Ancient Pali Blessing (Sri Lanka)
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
85/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
SASSA SAMPATTI HETU CAPHITO BHAVATU LOKO CARAJA BHAVATU DHAMMIKO
May the rains come in time,May the harvests be bountifulMay the people be happy & contended
May the king be righteous
Even in ancient times, a favourable environment,economic prosperity, social stability (and goodgovernance), were clearly identified as key pre-requisites for making development more sustainable.
Environmental:Economic:
Social:
Environment
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
86/95
M I N D
M I N D
Society Economy
Munasinghe Institute for Development"making development more sustainable - MDMS
10/1 De Fonseka Place, Colombo 5, Sri Lanka
Phone: +9411-255-1208; Fax: +9411-255-1608
E-mail: ; Web:
MIND PROGRAMMES
A d
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
87/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
AwardsResearch fellowships, Scholarships, MINDSustainable Support Service (MS3), Book donations
Dissemination & ResearchDissemination & Training workshops
Expert meetings & conferences
Applied research studies and evaluations
UN Centre of Excellence for Asia in the ClimateChange Capacity Development (C3D) network of the
United Nations Institute for Training and Research(UNITAR).
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
88/95
M I N D
MIND CC-SD Training Course, CMA, Beijing, July-Aug, 2006
270 Senior Chinese Officials
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
89/95
M I N D
MIND SD Course, Delhi, Feb. 2007
25 Senior Indian Civil Service Officers
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
90/95
The University of Manchester
Sustainable Consumption Institute (SCI)
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
91/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
Leading research into sustainable consumption
Suggestions for Further Information
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
92/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
1. Munasinghe, M. (2010)Making Development More
Sustainable Development, Second Edition, MIND Press, Sri
Lanka Translated into Chinese.
2. Munasinghe, M. (2009) Sustainable Development in Practice
Sustainomics Methodology and Applications, Cambridge
University Press, UK.
3. Munasinghe, M., and Swart, R. (2005)Primer on ClimateChange and Sustainable Development, Cambridge University
Press, UK Translated into Chinese.
4. Website URL:
MIND PressBook:
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
93/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
Book:650 pages
SecondEditionPublished inApril 2010
Cambridge
University
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
94/95
M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
UniversityPress Book:650 pages
Published inMay 2009
8/13/2019 Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity
95/95
M I N D
Thank youvery much
Top Related