Download - Modelling)of)birch)pollen)concentra2ons)using)Enviro7HIRLAM · Modelling)of)birch)pollen)concentra2ons)using)Enviro7HIRLAM! Alexander)Kurganskiy)1,2*,)Alexander)Mahura)3,)Roman)Nuterman)1,)Alix)Rasmussen)3,)Alexander)Baklanov)3,4

Modelling of birch pollen concentra2ons using Enviro-‐HIRLAM Alexander Kurganskiy 1,2*, Alexander Mahura 3, Roman Nuterman 1, Alix Rasmussen 3, Alexander Baklanov 3,4, Sergei Smyshlyaev 2, Eigil Kaas 1

1 Niels Bohr Ins.tute of University of Copenhagen (NBI, UC), Copenhagen, Denmark 2 Russian State Hydrometeorological University (RSHU), St. Petersburg, Russia

3 Danish Meteorological Ins.tute (DMI), Copenhagen, Denmark 4 World Meteorological Organiza.on (WMO), Geneva, Switzerland

INTRODUCTION

Inves.ga.on of temporal and spa.al evolu.on of pollen has a high interest, especially from a medical point of view. Birch pollen is the most common aeroallergen. About 20% of popula.on in Europe suffers allergenic reac.ons from pollen, and this number is constantly increasing. Therefore, people suffered to allergenic diseases (such as rhini.s) need to know: where and when there will be high pollen concentra.on. For this reason, a module for forecas.ng of birch pollen concentra.ons has been developed as a part of Enviro-‐HIRLAM modeling system, and used in opera.onal mode for several years. The latest version of the model presented here includes growing degree hour parameteriza.on for start of flowering season, birch forest spa.al distribu.on, birch pollen emissions from local sources, dry and wet deposi.on processes for pollen par.cles in the atmosphere.

MODELLING DOMAINS

Figure 1. P15 domain covering a large part of Europe with Denmark in the center.

Figure 2. T15 domain covering the North-‐West Russia, a part of Finland, Sweden, Belarus and Bal.c States.

Domain T15

Horiz. resolu.on

0.135°

Grids (lon x lat) 118 x 118

Ver.cal levels 40

Domain P15

Horiz. resolu.on

0.15°

Grids (lon x lat) 154 x 148

Ver.cal levels 40

MODEL RESULTS VS. OBSERVATIONS

Figure 6. Birch pollen concentra.ons observed ( red ) v s . mode l l ed (green) at Finnish sites: Turku (60°32‘ N and 22°28‘ E) (fig. 6a), and Helsinki (60°10‘ N and 24°54‘ E) (fig. 6b).

Figure 5. Birch pollen concentra.ons observed ( r ed ) v s . mode l l ed (green) at Danish sites: Copenhagen (55°43’ N and 12°34’ E) (fig. 5a), and Viborg (56°27‘ N and 9°24’ E) (fig. 5b).

6a

6b

5a

5b Model runs performed for spring of 2006

METHODOLOGY: MODEL AND DATA Enviro-‐HIRLAM (Environment -‐ High Resolu.on Limited Area Model) is online-‐coupled numerical weather predic.on and atmospheric chemistry transport modelling system. The model includes chemical, aerosol and pollen species. Schema.c descrip.on of birch pollen forecas.ng system is shown in figure 3. Birch forest habitat maps (fig. 4) have been derived for both modelling domains (fig. 1,2). The maps are result of combining and processing of three GIS databases: Global Land Cover (GLC) (landcover.usgs.gov/glcc/), European Forest Ins.tute (EFI) (Päivinen et al. 2001), and Tree Species Inventory (TSI) (Skjøth et al. 2008). Model results are shown in fig. 5,6.

Figure 3. Enviro-‐HIRLAM birch pollen forecas.ng system.

Figure 4. Procedure of deriving birch forest maps for P15 and T15 domains.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors are thankful to Dr. Carsten Ambelas Skjøth (University of Worcester, Na.onal Pollen and Aerobiological Research Unit) for providing tree species inventory data, European Forest Ins.tute (EFI) for broadleaved forest data, Prof. Mikhail Sofiev (Finnish Meteorological Ins.tute), Dr. Annika Saarto (Aerobiological Unit at University of Turku) and Danish Asthma Allergy Associa.on for birch pollen observa.on data, Dr. Suleiman Mostamandy (RSHU) for help in gejng Met. IC/BC data.

REFERENCES Päivinen, R., Lehikoinen, M., Schuck, A., Häme, T., Väätäinen, S., Kennedy, P., and Folving, S.: Combining Earth Observa.on Data and Forest Sta.s.cs, Research Report, 14, 101 p., EFI, Joensuu and Joint Research Centre / European Commission, 2001. Skjøth, C. A., Geels, C., Hvidberg, M., Hertel, O., Brandt, J., Frohn, L. M., Hansen, K. M., Hedegaard, G. B., Christensen, J., and Moseholm, L.: An inventory of tree species in Europe -‐ an essen.al data input for air pollu.on modelling, Ecol. Model., 217, 292-‐304, 2008.

*CONTACT

Alexander Kurganskiy email: [email protected]

GIS processing P15 T15

Global Land Cover (GLC, 1x1 km)

Frac.on of birch forest in broadleaved forest (TSI, 50x50 km)

Broadleaved forest (EFI, 1x1 km)

source: edc2.usgs.gov/glcc/eurasia_img.php source: www.efi.int

Finland North – West Russia

Belarus

Bal.c States Sweden

Denmark

Germany Poland

France

UK

Spain Italy

Sweden Norway

Phenological data

Birch forest map

Met. IC/BC (ECMWF-‐IFS)

Meteorology

Emissions

Transport

Diffusion

Dry deposition

Scavenging

Birch pollen concentration Eields

INPUT DATA

Enviro-‐HIRLAM

OUTPUT