Modelling food and physical activity behaviours
Philippe J. Giabbanelli
PJ Giabbanelli Modelling food and physical activity behaviours 1
Themes addressed
Why would you use computational models?
Novel ways to support public health modelling
Modelling from physiology to social determinants
PJ Giabbanelli 2
Why?
Tell me what people will do in the future!
Modelling food and physical activity behaviours
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Why?
Epstein (JASS 11(4):12) gives 16 reasons other than prediction to build models.
Explaining
Modelling food and physical activity behaviours
To simulate far into the future, you need to understand what you have now and how it changes.
2013 2023 2043
1 - Explain 2 - Predict
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Why?
Epstein (JASS 11(4):12) gives 16 reasons other than prediction to build models.
Explaining
“Electrostatics explains lightning,
but we cannot predict when or where the next bolt will strike.”
Modelling food and physical activity behaviours
A chaotic view of behavior change: a quantum leap for health promotionResnicow & Vaughan, IJBNPA 2006
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Why?
Epstein (JASS 11(4):12) gives 16 reasons other than prediction to build models.
Illuminate core dynamics
We all have assumptions based on our personal experience.
Models will make these assumptions explicit and can check for inconsistencies.
Modelling food and physical activity behaviours
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Why?
Epstein (JASS 11(4):12) gives 16 reasons other than prediction to build models.
« What if »
Imagine that you want to intervene on the built environment. Would you try to change
it and see whether it was a good idea?
Using the computer, you create a virtual environment and see how virtual people react to
changes.
Modelling food and physical activity behaviours
And load up on antidepressants
?!
7
Food intake Exercise
Peer behaviour
Stress
Obesity stigma
SES
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From physiology to social determinants
“There is increasing evidence that social influence and social network structures are significant factors in obesity.”
Eating Exercising
R.A. Hammond, Current Opinion in Endocrinology, Diabetes and Obesity 17, 467 (2010)
Modelling food and physical activity behaviours
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W. Rush, et al., Tech. rep NECSI 2003
Modelling food and physical activity behaviours
From physiology to social determinants
Rule: take the state shared by the majority of your friends.
But I have only 2 friends!
Well, I have 14 friends…
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2003. Everyone has the same number of friends.
2009. Most people have few friends, few people have lots.
(cellular automaton) (complex networks)
D. Bahr, R. Browning, H. Wyatt, J. Hill, Exploiting social networks to mitigate the obesity epidemic, Obesity 17 (2009) 723-728
Modelling food and physical activity behaviours
From physiology to social determinants
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Structure ProcessHow are individuals connected?
= who interacts with who?
How do individuals interact?
= how people influence each other?
Using a social network is key for realism.
Using a majority rule would significantly oversimplify.
Modelling food and physical activity behaviours
From physiology to social determinants
Small-world Scale-free
PJ Giabbanelli 13Modelling food and physical activity behaviours
From physiology to social determinants
From physiology to social determinants
PJ Giabbanelli 14Modelling food and physical activity behaviours
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From physiology to social determinants
This example had a decent structure but modelled the process in simple ways.
How can we better represent the context that shapes food and physical activity behaviours?
Modelling food and physical activity behaviours
From physiology to social determinants
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P-valuesOdds ratio
ANOVA
Besides, studies tend to speak on associations, not causations…
???
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From physiology to social determinants
I turned to experts on obesity and asked them to evaluate the strength of these causations.
I built an expert system based on their feedback.
Modelling food and physical activity behaviours
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+
From physiology to social determinants
Modelling food and physical activity behaviours
To be expanded thanks to funding of $46K from the Provincial Health Services Authority
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From physiology to social determinants
Modelling food and physical activity behaviours
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Initialization Matching Simulation
James
Marko
Pablo
Ali
Nick
From physiology to social determinants
Modelling food and physical activity behaviours
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SimulationInitialization Matching
Influencing Influenced
From physiology to social determinants
James
Marko
Pablo
Ali
Nick
Modelling food and physical activity behaviours
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Initialization Matching Simulation
From physiology to social determinants
James
Marko
Pablo
Ali
Nick
Modelling food and physical activity behaviours
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From physiology to social determinants
Modelling food and physical activity behaviours
Focusing on knowledge sharing…
Comparing food labels Cooking
healthy meals
…are you better off following your friends or random people?
From physiology to social determinants
←probability of passing on knowledge→
↑Intensity of obesity
↓
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From physiology to social determinants
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What about behavioural responses to price fluctuations in food?
What about the cost-effectiveness of interventions?
From physiology to social determinants
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Individuals
Socio-demographic variables Decision making
age gender education location
beliefs price
taste
accessibility
Influencability by peers
Food advertisement
peers
FAB Social network theory
Pasadena, CA (USA)
Parameter
Data sources
From physiology to social determinants
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Junk tax
www.spaplay.com
Novel ways to support public health modelling
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Game activities
Recommender System
Practitioner’s office
Interacting with peers
Data about relevant psycho-social factors
Data about similar peers
provides
improves
Suggesting relevant questions
Suggesting similar peersincreases
increases
Conducting a targetted psycho-social assessment of patients queries
refines
Patients’ information
amel
iora
tes
providesCompleting surveys
contributes to
Self monitoring
Builds on an evidence base to offer
Improving health management
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Getting data
Choosing a type of model
Creating a conceptual model
Creating & calibraing a computational model
Analysing simulations
Translate findings to stakeholders
Novel ways to support public health modelling
PJ Giabbanelli 30Modelling food and physical activity behaviours
Getting data
Choosing a type of model
Creating a conceptual model
Creating & calibraing a computational model
Analysing simulations
Translate findings to stakeholders
Novel ways to support public health modelling
PJ Giabbanelli 31Modelling food and physical activity behaviours
Getting data
Choosing a type of model
Creating a conceptual model
Creating & calibraing a computational model
Analysing simulations
Translate findings to stakeholders
? ? ?
The support for modelling decreases as you progress to the more advanced stages
We need to see how existing tools support this process, and develop
guidelines to fill in the gaps
Novel ways to support public health modelling
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1. PJ Giabbanelli, T Torsney-Weir, VK Mago. A fuzzy cognitive map of the psychosocial determinants of obesity. Applied Soft Computing 12(12):3711-3724, 2012.
2. PJ Giabbanelli, A Alimadad, V Dabbaghian, DT Finegood. Modeling the influence of social networks and environment on energy balance and obesity. Journal of Computational Science 3, 17-27, 2012.
3. PJ Giabbanelli, P Jackson, DT Finegood. Modeling the joint effect of social determinants and peers on obesity. Intelligent Systems Reference Library (Springer) 52, 2013.
4. PJ Giabbanelli, P Deck, L Andres, T Schiphorst, DT Finegood. Supporting a participant-centric management of obesity via a self-improving health game. Digital Human Modeling and Applications in Health, Safety, Ergonomics and Risk Management, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 8025: 189-196, 2013.
5. PJ Giabbanelli. A novel framework for complex networks and chronic diseases. Studies in Computational Intelligence 424:207-215, 2013.
Dr Alimadad, Provincial Health Services Authority (CAN)
Dr MagoTroy University (USA)
Dr Jackson Simon Fraser U (CAN)
Dr Finegood, President & CEOMichael Smith Foundation For
Health Research (CAN)
Dr CrutzenMaastricht U (Netherlands)
PJ Giabbanelli Modelling food and physical activity behaviours
We know:
We do not know: • One’s threshold of influence to trigger changes
• The structure of the population
• By how much one’s food consumption can change
• By how much population weight changes in a year
PJ Giabbanelli
Simulating interventions on food intake and exercise for different cases of obese patients.
From physiology to social determinants
Modelling food and physical activity behaviours
PJ Giabbanelli Modelling food and physical activity behaviours
PJ Giabbanelli Modelling food and physical activity behaviours
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