Michigan Department of CorrectionsMichigan Department of Corrections
Updated Prison Bed Space Updated Prison Bed Space ProjectionsProjections
Impact from Probation, Community Impact from Probation, Community Corrections, Parole and the MPRICorrections, Parole and the MPRI
Presentation to the Senate Appropriations Presentation to the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on CorrectionsSubcommittee on Corrections
May 12, 2009May 12, 2009
22
Projection Model & MethodologyProjection Model & Methodology
Projections issued in 2005 were 99.6% accurateOnly 205 prisoners higher than actual
Projections issued in 2006 were 96.9% accurate1,540 prisoners lower than actual – due to the criminal justice system response to highly publicized crimes in February 2006
Projections issued in 2007 were 95.0% accurate2,625 prisoners higher than actual — due to record paroles, 33% fewer parole failures, and reduced prison admissions
Projections issued in 2008 were 94.7% accurate2,708 prisoners higher than actual — Past-ERD Reduction Strategy produced 3rd highest number of paroles, fewer parole failures, and less than expected prison admissions
33
Actual Population versus Net Operating CapacityActual Population versus Net Operating Capacity
Michigan Department of Corrections
CAPACITY AND POPULATION HISTORY: 1/1995 - 1/2009
37,000
38,000
39,000
40,000
41,000
42,000
43,000
44,000
45,000
46,000
47,000
48,000
49,000
50,000
51,000
52,000
53,000
Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
End of Month
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Actual Prison & Camp Population Net Operating Capacity
44
Evidenced Based PracticesEvidenced Based Practices Reducing Crime by Focusing on What WorksReducing Crime by Focusing on What Works
• Studies show there is little direct relationship between crime and Studies show there is little direct relationship between crime and incarceration and that the cost benefit of imprisonment is not the best incarceration and that the cost benefit of imprisonment is not the best way to reduce crime.way to reduce crime.
• Return to prison rates for former prisoners who serve one, two, three, Return to prison rates for former prisoners who serve one, two, three, four or five years in prison are nearly the same. four or five years in prison are nearly the same.
• The rising cost of the corrections budget is not driven by increases in The rising cost of the corrections budget is not driven by increases in crime, it is driven by the sheer size of the prison system.crime, it is driven by the sheer size of the prison system.
• Dollar for dollar, investments in effective police practices reduce crime Dollar for dollar, investments in effective police practices reduce crime more than imprisonment.more than imprisonment.
• Employment is a critical dimension of successful offender rehabilitation Employment is a critical dimension of successful offender rehabilitation and is associated with lower rates of re-offending; higher wages are and is associated with lower rates of re-offending; higher wages are associated with lower rates of criminal activity.associated with lower rates of criminal activity.
• Educational and training programs that address fundamental abilities Educational and training programs that address fundamental abilities
and teach skills directly applicable to the job market contribute to and teach skills directly applicable to the job market contribute to successful reintegration of offenders into society and reduce successful reintegration of offenders into society and reduce recidivism.recidivism.
55
Evidence Based PracticesEvidence Based PracticesMichigan Prisoner ReEntry InitiativeMichigan Prisoner ReEntry Initiative
• Implemented statewide in FY 2008 with expansion to up-to-Implemented statewide in FY 2008 with expansion to up-to-scale possible in FY2009scale possible in FY2009
• Focus on MPRI has provided improved resources to Parole Focus on MPRI has provided improved resources to Parole Board including better training and more sophisticated Board including better training and more sophisticated assessment instrumentsassessment instruments
• Annual parole revocations are down by 42% since record high Annual parole revocations are down by 42% since record high year of 2002, despite a 40% increase in size of parole year of 2002, despite a 40% increase in size of parole populationpopulation
• Successful MPRI process mitigates and controls risk - raises Successful MPRI process mitigates and controls risk - raises Parole Board confidence in parole plans and outcomes, Parole Board confidence in parole plans and outcomes, enabling higher parole approval rates across the boardenabling higher parole approval rates across the board
• Improved parole guidelines are being developed as a way to Improved parole guidelines are being developed as a way to sustain and expand the impact of these improvementssustain and expand the impact of these improvements
66
Projection AssumptionsProjection AssumptionsSuccessful Approaches to Controlling Prison GrowthSuccessful Approaches to Controlling Prison Growth
Front End Impacts on Prison GrowthFront End Impacts on Prison Growth Comprehensive Planning through the Community Corrections Act Comprehensive Planning through the Community Corrections Act
continues to keep prison admission rate lower than other statescontinues to keep prison admission rate lower than other states Graduated sanctions and services for probationers respond to Graduated sanctions and services for probationers respond to
probationer risk and need – less than 7% fail and go to prisonprobationer risk and need – less than 7% fail and go to prison Residential substance abuse treatment programs are effectiveResidential substance abuse treatment programs are effective
Efforts to Affect Length of Stay, Releases and ReturnsEfforts to Affect Length of Stay, Releases and Returns MPRI statewide expansion includes every county in the stateMPRI statewide expansion includes every county in the state Improved Parole Board risk and need assessment strategiesImproved Parole Board risk and need assessment strategies Focus on special populations: Mentally Ill, Youthful Offenders, SAI, Focus on special populations: Mentally Ill, Youthful Offenders, SAI,
Female OffendersFemale Offenders Continue Aggressive Review of Past ERD Prisoner PopulationContinue Aggressive Review of Past ERD Prisoner Population
Cross System Efforts Driven by MPRI FocusCross System Efforts Driven by MPRI Focus More sophisticated risk and need assessment approachesMore sophisticated risk and need assessment approaches Offender based accountability plansOffender based accountability plans Collaborative Case Management approachesCollaborative Case Management approaches Focus on employment as primary offender needFocus on employment as primary offender need
77
Michigan Department of Corrections
PROJECTED PRISON POPULATION & NET OPERATING CAPACITY REDUCTION
43,000
44,000
45,000
46,000
47,000
48,000
49,000
50,000
51,000
52,000
53,000
Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
End of Month
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Actual Prison & Camp Population Historical Net Operating Capacity
Future Net Operating Capacity 12/08 Base Projection w/ SAI-Prison Increase
12/08 Scenario w/ Past ERD Reduction Strategy 12/08 Alternate Forecast w/ SAI-Prison Sunset on 9/30/2009
88
Michigan Department of Corrections
UPDATED POPULATION PROJECTION: CSG Options & Stronger Past ERD Reduction: APRIL 30 STATUS
40,000
41,000
42,000
43,000
44,000
45,000
46,000
47,000
48,000
49,000
50,000
51,000
52,000
53,000
Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
End of Month
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Actual Prison & Camp Population Historical Net Operating Capacity
Future Net Operating Capacity 2/09 Projection Update - 120% Cap, Short PVT, Max Parole, Less Past ERD
99
Recent TrendsRecent Trends
Through April 30, 2009Through April 30, 2009 • Current actual population is within 926 of the projection through April Current actual population is within 926 of the projection through April
(98.0% accurate).(98.0% accurate).
• Male population is 961 higher than the forecast, while female Male population is 961 higher than the forecast, while female population is 35 lower than the forecast.population is 35 lower than the forecast.
• In terms of bed space, actual net operating capacity at the end of April In terms of bed space, actual net operating capacity at the end of April was slightly higher than forecast due primarily to the opening of the was slightly higher than forecast due primarily to the opening of the Maxey Facility and the beds added at Macomb Correctional Facility for Maxey Facility and the beds added at Macomb Correctional Facility for male mental health treatment.male mental health treatment.
• All trends in the key corrections data indicators continue to point to an All trends in the key corrections data indicators continue to point to an accelerating prison population reduction over the coming months.accelerating prison population reduction over the coming months.
• The Council of State Governments Justice Reinvestment Work Group The Council of State Governments Justice Reinvestment Work Group Recommendations, originally expected to take effect by April 1, 2009, Recommendations, originally expected to take effect by April 1, 2009, have not yet been taken up by the Legislature.have not yet been taken up by the Legislature.
• The expansion of the Parole Board from 10 to 15 members has been The expansion of the Parole Board from 10 to 15 members has been accomplished and increased numbers of reviews will result in accomplished and increased numbers of reviews will result in additional paroles.additional paroles.
1010
Front End ImpactFront End Impact: Felony court dispositions have declined in 2008 after 8 : Felony court dispositions have declined in 2008 after 8 consecutive years of growthconsecutive years of growth
Michigan Department of Corrections
Total Felony Court Dispositions (Offenders)
38,805 38,749 39,340 40,016
38,178 38,359
41,835
45,147
47,22948,263
49,467
52,031 52,719
50,693
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1111
Front End ImpactFront End Impact: Prison intake decreased due to reduced dispositions, and : Prison intake decreased due to reduced dispositions, and improved community corrections and probation practices – lowest since 2001improved community corrections and probation practices – lowest since 2001
Michigan Department of Corrections
Prison Intake
8,6679,169
9,584 9,424
8,809 8,922
9,610
11,050
10,3119,811
10,241
11,09410,713
9,715
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
*Includes new court commitments, probation violators (technical or new sentence), parole violators new sentence, and escapee new sentence.
1212
Michigan Department of Corrections
Parole Approval Rate
55.0%
57.9%
55.3%
51.3% 51.5%
47.3% 47.7% 48.4%
51.8% 51.5%
54.7%
51.7% 52.5%
58.1%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Impact on Length of StayImpact on Length of Stay: Parole approval rate reached highest level since : Parole approval rate reached highest level since 1993 due to MPRI and Parole Board efforts to improve risk & need assessment1993 due to MPRI and Parole Board efforts to improve risk & need assessment
1313
Impact on ReleasesImpact on Releases: The number of moves to parole in 2008 was the 3: The number of moves to parole in 2008 was the 3rdrd highest in history due to MPRI and improvements by the Parole Boardhighest in history due to MPRI and improvements by the Parole Board
Michigan Department of Corrections
Moves to Parole
9,0789,465
8,758
10,506
9,682
9,133
10,001
10,697
11,75211,344
10,284 10,240
12,429
11,557
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1414
Michigan Department of Corrections
Discharges on the Maximum Sentence
851
969
1,051
1,174
1,299
1,449
1,6291,699 1,714
1,925 1,929
1,7811,713
1,654
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Impact on ReleasesImpact on Releases: Max outs have steadily declined due to the MPRI : Max outs have steadily declined due to the MPRI after a decade of annual increasesafter a decade of annual increases
1515
Michigan Department of Corrections
Parole Violator New Sentence Intake
890
1,033
1,2881,345
1,2591,166 1,195
1,441
1,644
1,8021,879
2,020 1,993 2,027
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Impact on ReturnsImpact on Returns:: Parole violator new sentence admissions to prison have Parole violator new sentence admissions to prison have been stable for 3 years - despite about 3,000 more offenders on parole- due to been stable for 3 years - despite about 3,000 more offenders on parole- due to
MPRI and improved parole supervision approachesMPRI and improved parole supervision approaches
1616
Michigan Department of Corrections
Parole Technical Violator Returns to Prison
1,916
2,5772,668
3,1103,186
3,1113,236 3,289
2,161
3,0132,859
3,158
2,095
1,893
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Note: Historically 70% have involved new criminal activity
Impact on ReturnsImpact on Returns: Parole violator technical returns to prison decreased: Parole violator technical returns to prison decreased to the lowest number since 1992 - despite a record high parole population – to the lowest number since 1992 - despite a record high parole population –
due to MPRI and improved parole supervision approachesdue to MPRI and improved parole supervision approaches
1717
The Council of State Governments /Justice Reinvestment Work GroupThe Council of State Governments /Justice Reinvestment Work GroupData-Informed, Policy Driven RecommendationsData-Informed, Policy Driven Recommendations
Recommendations that Affect Prison AdmissionsRecommendations that Affect Prison Admissions
Probationers with high risk and need factors have high Probationers with high risk and need factors have high rearrest rates and need intensive supervision, health rearrest rates and need intensive supervision, health
services, education and other supports. services, education and other supports. The Justice Reinvestment Work Group recommends:The Justice Reinvestment Work Group recommends:
• Amend the Community Corrections Act (CCA) to eliminate the Amend the Community Corrections Act (CCA) to eliminate the restriction to only allow targeting of non-assaultive offenders and to restriction to only allow targeting of non-assaultive offenders and to require the use of validated risk and need assessmentrequire the use of validated risk and need assessment
• Target High Risk probationers under the CCA and measure impact of Target High Risk probationers under the CCA and measure impact of evidence based practices on reducing rearrest.evidence based practices on reducing rearrest.
• Expand graduated sanctions and services for probationers including Expand graduated sanctions and services for probationers including the use of short jail stays as sanctions and, in the service area, the use of short jail stays as sanctions and, in the service area, improved approaches for employment improved approaches for employment
• Demonstrate the quality of the programs funded under the CCADemonstrate the quality of the programs funded under the CCA
1818
The Council of State Governments /Justice Reinvestment Work GroupThe Council of State Governments /Justice Reinvestment Work GroupData-Informed, Policy Driven RecommendationsData-Informed, Policy Driven Recommendations
Recommendations that Affect Length of StayRecommendations that Affect Length of Stay
2007 prison releases to parole served an average 2007 prison releases to parole served an average 127% of their court-imposed minimum sentence. 127% of their court-imposed minimum sentence.
The Justice Reinvestment Work Group recommends:The Justice Reinvestment Work Group recommends:
• Legislation to require that the Parole Board release prisoners Legislation to require that the Parole Board release prisoners after serving between 100-120% of their court-imposed after serving between 100-120% of their court-imposed minimum sentence – with limited exceptionsminimum sentence – with limited exceptions
• Legislation to require that the Parole Board revoke parole for Legislation to require that the Parole Board revoke parole for no more than 9 months for first time revocations related to no more than 9 months for first time revocations related to condition violationscondition violations
• Legislation to require that the Parole Board, with only few Legislation to require that the Parole Board, with only few exceptions, provide at least 9 months of parole supervision for exceptions, provide at least 9 months of parole supervision for prisoners who otherwise would have served their entire prisoners who otherwise would have served their entire maximum sentence (no “max outs”, with few exceptions)maximum sentence (no “max outs”, with few exceptions)
1919
New Prison Population ProjectionsNew Prison Population Projections
Expand Front End Impacts on Prison Growth under the Expand Front End Impacts on Prison Growth under the Community Corrections ActCommunity Corrections Act
Amend the Community Corrections Act (CCA) and increase Amend the Community Corrections Act (CCA) and increase diversionsdiversions
Implement demonstrations of impact when targeting higher risk Implement demonstrations of impact when targeting higher risk probationers and measure impact of evidence based practicesprobationers and measure impact of evidence based practices
Use COMPAS for risk and need assessments of probationers and Use COMPAS for risk and need assessments of probationers and improve case planning and case management effortsimprove case planning and case management efforts
Expand graduated sanctions and services for probationers – Expand graduated sanctions and services for probationers – including short stays in jail when possibleincluding short stays in jail when possible
Improve the use of the County Jail Reimbursement Program for Improve the use of the County Jail Reimbursement Program for diversionsdiversions
Reduce Length of Stay, Increase Releases and Reduce Reduce Length of Stay, Increase Releases and Reduce Returns to Prison under the MPRIReturns to Prison under the MPRI
Take MPRI up-to-scale in FY 2009 – NO EARLY RELEASESTake MPRI up-to-scale in FY 2009 – NO EARLY RELEASES Expand efforts to work with mentally ill prisonersExpand efforts to work with mentally ill prisoners Expand Review of Past ERD Prisoner Population by adding 5 new Expand Review of Past ERD Prisoner Population by adding 5 new
parole board members and increase number of parolesparole board members and increase number of paroles Implement CSG work group recommendations for parole reforms Implement CSG work group recommendations for parole reforms
immediately and decrease length of stay of prisonersimmediately and decrease length of stay of prisoners
2020
New Bed Space ProjectionsNew Bed Space ProjectionsPast ERD Prisoner Reduction StrategyPast ERD Prisoner Reduction Strategy
Experience over the past five years with MPRI and the Experience over the past five years with MPRI and the capability to focus on special populations statewide allow capability to focus on special populations statewide allow for greater attention to prisoners who have served time for greater attention to prisoners who have served time
beyond their Earliest Release Date (ERD)beyond their Earliest Release Date (ERD)
Number of prisoners past their ERD was over 17,000 in 2003Number of prisoners past their ERD was over 17,000 in 2003
From 2003 to 2008, number was slowly reduced to 15,000From 2003 to 2008, number was slowly reduced to 15,000
Beginning in June 2008 with statewide presence of MPRI and Beginning in June 2008 with statewide presence of MPRI and improved parole board resources, number has reduced to improved parole board resources, number has reduced to approximately 12,000 – allowing several prison closings in 2009approximately 12,000 – allowing several prison closings in 2009
Focus in 2009 is to further reduce past ERD population by another Focus in 2009 is to further reduce past ERD population by another several thousandseveral thousand
In addition, prison admission reduction efforts will be expandedIn addition, prison admission reduction efforts will be expanded
2121
Michigan Department of Corrections
UPDATED POPULATION PROJECTION: CSG Options & Stronger Past ERD Reduction: APRIL 30 STATUS
40,000
41,000
42,000
43,000
44,000
45,000
46,000
47,000
48,000
49,000
50,000
51,000
52,000
53,000
Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
End of Month
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Actual Prison & Camp Population Historical Net Operating Capacity
Future Net Operating Capacity 2/09 Projection Update - 120% Cap, Short PVT, Max Parole, Less Past ERD
2222
New Bed Space ProjectionsNew Bed Space ProjectionsImpact and ReinvestmentsImpact and Reinvestments
Reduced Need for PrisonsReduced Need for Prisons Trends in community efforts to keep prison admissions lowTrends in community efforts to keep prison admissions low Increased paroles for past ERD prisoners – NO EARLY RELEASESIncreased paroles for past ERD prisoners – NO EARLY RELEASES Reduced technical violations and parolee failuresReduced technical violations and parolee failures Reassessment of classification approaches for prisoners will allow Reassessment of classification approaches for prisoners will allow
re-configuration of prison systemre-configuration of prison system As prison space becomes available, prison closings will be assessedAs prison space becomes available, prison closings will be assessed
Reinvestments on the Front EndReinvestments on the Front End Expand use of sophisticated risk and need assessment approachesExpand use of sophisticated risk and need assessment approaches Improved offender based accountability plansImproved offender based accountability plans Improved comprehensive planning under PA 511Improved comprehensive planning under PA 511 Improved Collaborative Case Management approachesImproved Collaborative Case Management approaches Focus on offender employment using Stimulus fundsFocus on offender employment using Stimulus funds
Reinvestments on the Back EndReinvestments on the Back End $20M for MPRI and Parole Supervision expansion in FY 2009$20M for MPRI and Parole Supervision expansion in FY 2009 $24.2M more for parole services in FY 2010$24.2M more for parole services in FY 2010 $22.7M more for MPRI in FY 2010$22.7M more for MPRI in FY 2010 Improvements in prisoner education & academic trainingImprovements in prisoner education & academic training
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