© OECD/IEA 2014
2050 GW by 2050?An IEA Perspective
Dr. Paolo Frankl,
Head, Renewable Energy Division
International Energy Agency
WORLD HYDROPOWER CONGRESS, 19-21 May 2015, BEIJING
© OECD/IEA 2015
Power: a share reversal is needed to limit temperature increase to 2°C
Today: Fossils: 68%
Renewables: 20%
Global electricity generation by technology
2011 6DS 2DS hi-Ren
By 2050 Renewables: 65 to 80%
Fossils: 20% (and with CCS)
Sou
rce:
En
erg
yTe
chn
olo
gy
Per
spec
tive
s 2
01
4
© OECD/IEA 2015
Different optimal power mixes in different regions by 2050
Sou
rce:
En
erg
yTe
chn
olo
gy
Per
spec
tive
s 2
01
4
© OECD/IEA 2015
Vision for IEA Hydropower Roadmap
Hydropower generation will double by 2050 and reach 2 000 GW and 7 000 TWh, mostly from
large plants in emerging/developing economies© OECD/IEA 2012
China
India
AseanOther Asia Pacific
Africa M. East
OECD Europe
RussiaTransition eco.
Canada
Other LAM+Mex
Brazil
USA
Asia Pacific
Africa
Europe & Eurasia
Central & South America
North America
Middle East
16%
19%
17%
Share on total electricity generation
© OECD/IEA 2015
Renewable electricity projected to scale up by 45% from 2013 to 2020
Strong momentum for renewable electricity
Global renewable electricity production, historical and projected
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
5001 0001 5002 0002 5003 0003 5004 0004 5005 0005 5006 0006 5007 0007 500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
TWh
Hydropower Bioenergy Onshore wind
Offshore wind Solar PV Geothermal
STE/CSP Ocean % total generation (right axis)
Historical data and estimates Forecast
Natural gas 2013
Nuclear 2013
© OECD/IEA 2015
Renewable electricity increasingly competitive
Levelised cost of electricity generation continue to decrease for most renewable technologies
© OECD/IEA 2015
Growth in hydropower led by non-OECD countries
Hydropower capacity* expected to grow 225 GW by 2020 (+2.6% annual growth), lead by non-OECD countries (+203 GW)
China accounts for almost half of growth (+105 GW) driven by target (420 GW by 2020).
Non-OECD Americas and Asia should also contribute substantially by adding ~35-37 GW each by 2020
Hydropower generation* expected to reach 4670 TWh; China, alone accounts for 27%
Generation largely influenced by how China decides to use the pumped storage capacity planned to be installed by 2020.
*Includes pumped storage
Hydropower electricity generation (TWh)Hydropower capacity additions (GW)
© OECD/IEA 2015
Hydropower capacity additions declining
Annual solar PV and wind power capacity additions will increase – and more so in the enhanced case
Annual hydropower capacity additions decrease in the next five years
?
© OECD/IEA 2015
3) Increase flexibility of other power system
components
Grids Generation
Storage Demand Side
1) Foster System-friendly
RE
Increasing variable RE will require greater system flexibility
2) Better market design & operation
© OECD/IEA 2015
Drivers and Barriers for reaching 2TW
Affordability, security
Proven, reliable, local
Fostering social and economic development
Multipurpose water management
Irrigation, freshwater
Flood protection
Power generation
Navigation, recreation
Support for wind & PV
Arbitrage and services
Sustainability challenges
Safety, resettlement
Water quality, wildlife
Civil works, GHGs
Financing challenges
Large capital intensive projects, long lead times
YoY return variations
Long tenures
Flexibility under-valued
Power market design, the policy challenge
Top Related