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Measurement of Transport CO2 Emissions: ForFITS Model
Madan B. Regmi, DEng Transport Division UNESCAP, Bangkok
2nd Carbon Footprint Workshop 20 May 2014, Kunming
Outline
! Introduction to ESCAP and UN mandates
! State of transport and emissions in Asia
! ForFITS Model
! Mitigation policy options
UN Mandates
! Global " Rio+20, focus on three pillars of
sustainability ! Economic ! Social ! Environmental
" Millennium Development Goals, 8 " Sustainable Development Goals (beyond
2015) " Kyoto Protocol – new protocol
! Regional " Regional Action Programme for
Transport Development, 2012-2016 (Ministerial Conference on Transport, 2012) ! Sustainable transport development ! Interisland shipping (10 Thematic Areas)
Rio+20 Outcome (Transport)
! Transport and mobility are key to Sustainable Development
! Efficient movement of goods and people ! Energy efficient multimodal transport system ! Clean fuels and vehicles ! Integrated approach to planning ! Affordable and sustainable transport ! Sustainable transit transport- need of landlocked and
transit countries ! Capacity development
Post 2015 Development Agenda
! Sustainable Development Goals ! Open Working Group ! Inclusion of Transport in SDG: Sustainable transport that enables universal
access to safe, clean, and affordable mobility " Increase access to mass transportation " Reduce urban air pollution " Increase efficiency of vehicle fleet " Reduce road fatalities
! Work in progress to define SDGs, targets and indicators in 16 Focus Areas
! SDG agreed by September. 2015
7
Growth of railways, road and vehicles
Pattern of Investment in Transport
! Railway and water transport are more environmental friendly than roads ! Majority of investment is in roads ! Rail and Urban transport investment increasing ! Limited investment aviation, inland water transport and coastal shipping
(ESCAP, 2013)
Energy consumption
! World-236.2 mil TOE ! ESCAP-64.8 mil TOE
(27.4% of world) ! Road- 81% ! Avaition-13% ! Rail- 4% ! Others- 2%
Transport emissions by modes, ESCAP
Share of emissions in selected countries
Major industrialized Asian countries- China, India, Japan, South Korea- 31% of CO2 emissions
Road transport- major share of CO2 emissions in Asia-54-99%
Emission Assessment Model
! Global Review of emissions models, data, mitigation policies ! Develop a freely available emission assessment model capable
to evaluate various policy options to reduce transport CO2 emissions
! Assist countries and policy makers: " in making informed decision for planning for sustainable transport
development " in the selection of the most appropriate and effective mitigation
measures ! Enhance cooperation among countries ! Raise awareness about the need to measure transport
emissions
Joint UNDA project among –Five UN Regional Commissions, UNECE leading
ForFITS: Model requirements
Key model requirements • Freely available software • Allow the estimation/assessment of emissions in transport • Allow the evaluation of transport policies for CO2 emission mitigation
Model converts information on transport activity into fuel consumption and CO2 emissions considering the influence of the socio-economic parameters and policy levers • Sectoral transport model, not including feedback on economic growth • Local, national, international applications are possible • The model is flexible with respect to data needs
ForFITS model Coverage
• Passenger and freight transport services • Two different areas (e.g. to define the transport systems: urban, non-urban, non-
spec.) • Nine transport modes:
• non-motorized transport, • two wheelers, • three wheelers, • light road vehicles, • medium and heavy road vehicles, • rail, • Navigation
• inland, • short-sea • deep-sea/maritime,
• Air • pipelines
Maritime sector
! Vessel types (Passenger) " A-Personal boats (non-specified) " B- Outboard motorboats " C- Inboard motorboats (cabin cruisers) " D- Inboard motorboats (yachts) " E-Ferries " F- Vessels for public transport (other / non-specified)
! Vessel types (Freight) " A-Inland navigation (carrying capacity ≤ 3000 t) " B-Short sea shipping (3000 t < carrying capacity ≤ 7500 t) " C-Maritime (7500 t < carrying capacity ≤ 33750 t) " D-Maritime (33750 t < carrying capacity ≤ 60000 t) " E-Maritime (carrying capacity > 60000 t) " F-Maritime (non-specified)
Different vehicle subsets within each mode (organized in six vehicle classes – A to F
• 31 powertrain technologies (e.g. internal combustion engines, hydraulic hybrids, electric hybrids, plug-ins, fuel cell, electric)
• 10 fuel blends, some of which are associated with specific modes and/or powertrains
Emission assessment
• ASIF Approach
Emission= Σ Activity (pkm or tkm ) X Structure (mode share) X Fuel Intensity (fuel consumption per vkm by vehicle type) X Emission Factor (of fuel used in vehicle type)
Transport ac+vity (pkm, tkm, vkm) and vehicle stock
New vehicle registra+ons by age and by powertrain
Energy use
CO2 emissions
ForFITS model: Key modelling steps
Four key modelling steps • Generation of transport activity (pkm, tkm, vkm) and vehicle stock • Evaluation of new vehicle registrations by powertrain and characterization of the vehicles by age • Calculation of the energy use • Estimation of CO2 emissions
Emission factors
Energy consumptio
n per km Vehicle price
by powertrain
GDP, population, structure of the transport system
Vehicle scrappage
Fuel price
ForFITS model: Simplified structure
Passenger transport demand genera7on module
Freight transport demand genera7on module
Transport ac+vity (pkm, tkm, vkm) and vehicle stock
New vehicle registra+ons by age and by powertrain
Energy use
CO2 emissions
Vehicle characteris7cs (vehicle price, technology cost, fuel consump7on, performance) by powertrain
Fuel characteris7cs (emission factors)
Gross Domes7c Product Popula7on (base year and projec7ons)
Passenger transport system characteris7cs Base year: vehicles, travel and loads Projec7ons: structural informa7on
Policy inputs ASIF
extended ASIF
ASIF
Fuel characteris7cs (cost and taxes)
Freight transport system characteris7cs Base year: vehicles, travel and loads Projec7ons: structural informa7on
• the characterization of the transport system in the base year (historical inputs) • the definition of the context in which the transport system should evolve (projections) • Information on the initial and final times, the characterization of the areas, and the
selection of the modelling approach for the powertrain choice (exogenous or endogenous),
Historical inputs • GDP, population • Vehicle stock: number of vehicles by
powertrain, average travel and loads, average fuel consumption
• New vehicle registrations: same detail used for stocks needed for the base year, 5 and 10 years earlier (data in between are taken into account with linear interpolations)
Minimum data requirements: Projections • GDP and population • Fuel prices (cost and taxation) • Vehicle shares between two and three
wheelers • Pkm shares for different public transport
modes (e.g. due to the construction of urban rail)
• Modal shares of light road freight vehicles • Evolution of the network extension for pipelines • With endogenous powertrain selection
(optional), discount rate and powertrain shares
ForFITS model: Data requirements
Need for coherence for inputs on each AREA, SERVICE, MODE, VEHICLE CLASS and POWERTRAIN
ForFITS model: XLS file Selection section Inputs entered in the database section are activated here
Database section Data for new scenarios shall be entered here
Example of input tables in the XLS file
• Extracting tables in .txt files, readable and editable in Excel The visualisation as graphs and table is possible for each of the model variables Comparative results on multiple runs (e.g. to different scenarios, before and after one or more policy interventions) can also be visualized in graphs and tables
ForFITS model Results
Results can be visualized in several ways: • Using the “output” views of the VPM file • With a graphical interface in the VPM file (up to 16 variables, including subscripts)
• As a table in the VPM file (any amount of subscripts and variables)
ForFITS Model:Dissemination and Advocacy ! International Review and Expert Meeting, April 2012, Geneva ! Global Review of emissions models, data, mitigation policies ! Model and User Manual available through project website:
http://www.unece.org/trans/theme_forfits.html ! Capacity building workshop/Pilot national workshops:
" ECLAC, Chile, 26-29 August 2013 " ECE, Geneva, 13 September 2013 " ESCAP, Thailand 23-24 September 2013 " ESCAP, Regional, 26-27 September 2013 " ECE, Geneva, 8-10 October 2013 " ESCWA, Tunisia, 4-5 December 2013
ForFITS Links Model, user manual, pilo7ng workshops
Model download/UNDA project page hLp://www.unece.org/trans/theme_forfits.html User manual, including methodological informa7on hLp://www.unece.org/trans/forfits_user_manual.html
ESCAP recent and planned activities on Sustainable Transport
! Expert Meeting on Policy options for Sustainable transport development, November 2013 " Maritime sector- technology, efficiency
! Workshops on emissions measurement and mitigation policies, September 2013
! Regional/National Workshops on sustainable and inclusive transport development, 2014-15
Planning Implementation Monitoring Self-evaluation and Improvement
# Procedure # Measures
$ Optimum trim /ballast $ Improved cargo handling
$ Improved voyage planning $ Just in time $ Optimum propeller and propeller inflow considerations $ Optimum use of rudder and heading control
systems(autopilot) $ Waste heat recovery $ Propulsion system $ Fuel Type $ Other measures
$ Improved fleet management
$ Energy management
$ Speed optimization $ Optimized shaft power
$ Weather routing
$ Propulsion system maintenance $ Hull maintenance
% IMO SEEMP GUIDELINES (MEPC 213(63), 2012) entered into force on 1 January 2013.
% IMO leads CO2 emission reduction through voluntary effort of ship company.
Mitigation policy options - Reduction of GHG emissions from ocean-
going shipping - Reduction of GHG emissions from port
operations and development - Reduction of GHG emissions from hinterland
transport - Enhancement of the use renewable energy - Development and auditing of CO2 inventories
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