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Expanding Environmental Prediction Capabilities for the
Chesapeake Bay: Collaborative Development for Ecological
Forecasting Applications
Expanding Environmental Prediction Capabilities for the
Chesapeake Bay: Collaborative Development for Ecological
Forecasting ApplicationsLouis W. Uccellini; Marie C. Colton;
David S. Green and W. Douglas Wilson
NOAA National Weather Service, National Ocean Service & Chesapeake Bay Office
2009 CRC Regional Conference
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Outline
• Drivers• Regional Capabilities • Collaborative
Development Center• Expanding System
Components• Opportunities for
Chesapeake Pilot Program
• Proposed Next Steps
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DriversDrivers
• Addressing User need for expanding environmental prediction as a tool for informed decision making– Linking weather, water and ecological research,
assessment, and monitoring activities at a regional scale
– Delivering essential forecast products and services through regional collaboration
– Increasing outreach and education, and enhancing socio-economic benefits
• NOAA initiative to focus its expertise, resources , and capabilities in the broader context of Ecosystem Based Management– Formal operational ecological forecasting entity for
the Region
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Regional Capabilities: CurrentRegional Capabilities: Current
• Observation– Extensive observation systems and monitoring programs in the
Chesapeake Bay and tidal tributaries
• Modeling• Regional Ocean Models• Hydrodynamic, biogeochemical and biology models
(transport, nutrients, contaminants, populations, vulnerability)
• Water circulation models for the bay• Species population dynamics and disease models
• Research – Quasi-operational ecological forecasting and assessment of
ecosystem indicators backed by NOAA infrastructure and regional partnerships
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Regional Capabilities: Future State
Regional Capabilities: Future State
• Products: – Warnings, watches, advisories, and information bulletins– Scenarios and outlooks
• Purpose– Scaleable to inform decisions for local to regional
management– Build on operational weather and water forecast
infrastructure and ecosystem research– Transition research results to applications and drive
research from operational feedback
• Comprehensive and integrated environmental forecast products & decision support services– Effective, reliable and quality controlled– Regional mitigation, adaptation, restoration and
recovery– Collaborative and community-based research,
operations, and sustainment
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Centers Ready to CollaborateCenters Ready to Collaborate
• National Centers for Environmental Prediction (EMC, CPC, OPC) and University of Maryland
• Capabilities:– Observation and Monitoring– Data Assimilation and Modeling– Dissemination– Education & Outreach– Research to Applications
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ObservationsObservations
Environmental Environmental ModelingModeling
ResearchResearch
Ecological Ecological ForecastingForecasting
Products for Products for Users and Users and
StakeholdersStakeholders
Expanding System Components
Expanding System Components
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Expanding System Components: Tools
Expanding System Components: Tools
• Observations– Continuum over spatial and temporal scales
• Atmospheric-Ocean, Estuaries, Near-shore• River flow and flux, beaches and wetlands, watersheds• Land-surface biophysics • Weather and climate variables • Biogeochemistry and multiple species
– In situ, remote sampling, and process studies. • Models
– Heuristic and numerical – Regional ocean models– Linked physical, biogeochemical, and ecosystem
• Decision Support Services– Forecasts and Warnings, Bulletins and Outlooks– Forecast probabilities and uncertainties– Long-term Scenarios and Assessments– Decision support and adaptive tools,
• geospatial and interactive Maps
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Opportunities for Chesapeake Bay
Opportunities for Chesapeake Bay
• Regional Ecological Forecast System
• Chesapeake Bay Pilot Forecasts*– Beach/Water Quality– Living Resource Distribution– Dissolved Oxygen [DO} Predictions– Harmful Algal Bloom (Chlorophyll)– Disease Pathogen Progression
(Climate Change) *Pre-planning meeting for Chesapeake Ecological WorkshopAnnapolis, Feb 27, 2009
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Opportunities for Chesapeake Bay
Opportunities for Chesapeake Bay
• Can only be done through a multi-disciplinary approach – building off the existing operational prediction and product delivery infrastructure
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Proposed Next StepsProposed Next Steps
• Seek AA recognition/approval across NOAA• Establish Regional Collaborative Pilot Office at
University of Maryland– Extend multi-agency, academic, and regional
participation– Engage with user community in developing forecast and
management framework– Strengthen regional observation and data systems
• Deliver operational forecast products and tools– Integration of a suite of hydrodynamic and biological
models– Forecast products for living resource distributions,
hypoxic conditions, water quality, beach closures, algal blooms and pathogens
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AppendixAppendix
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Beach/Water QualityMonitoring & Forecast System
Beach/Water QualityMonitoring & Forecast System
• Issue: Water quality is at risk due to microbial and chemical contamination and a threat to human and ecosystem health and economics
• Solution: Water (beach) quality guidance
• Operational Concept: Routinely generate forecasts and warnings daily, weekly, seasonal (including lead times) using hydrologic, waves, precipitation, circulation, transport turbidity, nutrients, waste, watershed and land models
• Collaborators: Include state and local managers, scientists, health workers, and regulators
• Output Product: Maps and decision support tools showing water (beach) quality index, bacterial content, water temperature, beach closures, water turbidity, categorical risk assessment
• Dissemination: Online and Media
• Outcome: Actions taken to improve Bay and public health, clean water, and promote improved land and resource management
Indicators and Indices http://www.eco-check.org/reportcard/chesapeake/2007/
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Living Resource Distribution/Oyster
Monitoring & Forecast System
Living Resource Distribution/Oyster
Monitoring & Forecast System
Chesapeake Bay Oyster Larvae Tracker (CBOLT)http://csc.noaa.gov/cbolt/
• Issue: Oyster populations are at low levels and productivity varies depending on salinity, water quality, habitat conditions, and disease.
• Solution: Annual forecast of oyster biomass including harvests and other related mortality/disease information
• Operational Concept: Routinely generate forecasts and outlooks using data from hydrodynamic, circulation, watershed, water quality, atmospheric and ecosystem models
• Collaborators: Include state managers, scientists and fishers
• Output Product: Maps and decision support tools showing habitat suitability, stock assessments, management and larvae tracking
• Dissemination: Online and Media
• Outcome: Actions taken to promote oyster restoration and disease research
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Oyster Larvae Tracker System Architecture
Oyster Larvae Tracker System Architecture
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Disolved Oxygen [DO]Monitoring & Forecast System
Disolved Oxygen [DO]Monitoring & Forecast System
• Issue: Some areas of the Bay have low oxygen levels threatening survival of species.
• Solution: Predictions and forecasts of hypoxia, including uncertainty related to nutrient loading and river flow
• Operational Concept: Routinely generate predictions and forecasts on synoptic to seasonal scales using data from hydrodynamic, circulation, watershed, atmospheric and water quality models
• Collaborators: Include state managers, scientists and fishers
• Output Product: Maps and decision support tools showing concentration and dead zones, habitat suitability, and marine assessments
• Dissemination: Online and Media
• Outcome: Regional actions taken to promote restoration and recovery
http://www.eco-check.org/forecast/chesapeake/overview/
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Harmful Algal Bloom (Chlorophyll)Monitoring & Forecast System
Harmful Algal Bloom (Chlorophyll)Monitoring & Forecast System
• Issue: HABs threaten human health and natural resources
• Solution: Predict nature, extent, development and movement of HAB species in Bay and its tidal tributaries.
• Operational Concept: Routinely generate forecasts using data from hydrodynamic computer models and NOAA satellites.
• Collaborators: Include state natural resource partners
• Output Product: Near-real time maps showing when and where to expect initiation and landfall
• Dissemination: Online and Media
• Outcome: Actions taken to monitor and mitigate HAB effects.
Nowcast of K.veneficum abundance (Experimental product)
http://155.206.18.162/cbay_hab/
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HAB Forecast System Transition to OperationsHAB Forecast System
Transition to Operations
User Requirements
State, Federal, other management agencies (State Depts. of Health, Fisheries; Nat'l Marine Sanctuaries, Protected Species)
Develop concepts, models, sensors
Research(separate program)
OperationsPre-operationsTransition(Development)
Validation
Product types,
Training matl,Analysts
Data integration,
Data access
Forecast development
Transfer models
Forecasts (bulletins),Respond to
users,Access and
run data sets,User
interaction
Forecast evaluation,
Product usefulness,
Product effectiveness,Annual User
feedback
Various researchers (NOAA, NASA, NSF)
Technical Oversight Group (NOAA)Researchers
NOAA and State partners NOAA and
State partners NOAA andTechnical Oversight GroupKey Users GroupKey Users Group
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Disease Pathogen ProgressionMonitoring & Forecast SystemDisease Pathogen ProgressionMonitoring & Forecast System
• Issue: Bacterial and viral pathogens – microorganisms capable of causing disease - threaten shellfish, fish species and human health
• Solution: Predict nature, extent, and spatially dependence of pathogens, including virulence probabilities in Bay and tidal tributaries
• Operational Concept: Routinely generate short- and long-term predictions using data from hydrodynamic and climate models, temperature and salinity, vibrio and multiple species, pathogen models and remote sensing data. Near-real-time maps of V. cholerae likelihood
Experimental product http://155.206.18.162/pathogens/
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Disease Pathogen ProgressionMonitoring & Forecast SystemDisease Pathogen ProgressionMonitoring & Forecast System
• Collaborators: Include water quality and resource mangers, environmental, health and safety planners, and health officials
• Output Product: Near-real time predictions and maps showing when and where to expect outbreaks or likelihood of occurrence, and long-term scenarios
• Dissemination: Online, Factsheets and Media
• Outcome: Actions taken to monitor and mitigate impacts of pathogens
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