Local Employment Dynamics:Partnership, Employment,
and Public-Use Data
Earlene Dowell and Heath HaywardLEHD Program
Center for Economic StudiesU.S. Census Bureau
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Outline
Welcome and Introduction to LED Basics of LED Data: LODES and QWI QWI Explorer (Demo and Example Scenarios) OnTheMap (Demo and Example Scenarios) Advanced Scenarios/Coming Soon/Questions
and Feedback
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Local Employment DynamicsPartnership
Then: Begun in late 1990s with a few states Goal to generate new labor market statistics from
existing records (UI and firm info) Now:
53 partner states/territories 3 data products 4 web-based data tools A culture of innovation and cost savings
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What’s In a Partnership?
Sharing of costs (and data) Breadth of expertise Diversity of ideas and needs National scale and local knowledge But it requires commitment and
maintenance…
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Building on State Inputs We combine state records with other
admin/census/survey data from the Census Bureau and other Federal agencies
We can then create public statistics on: Firms & Establishments Jobs & Workers By Firm and Person Characteristics
Without new respondent burden
Admin. Records & LED Infrastructure
QCEW*
Economic Survey Data
Business Register
UI* Wage Records
Federal Records
Demographic Census/Survey
Data
OPM*
Public-UseData Products…
QCEW = Quarterly Census of Employment and WagesUI = Unemployment InsuranceOPM = Office of Personnel Management
Linked National Jobs Data
Firm DataJobs Data
Person Data
• Job data cover over 95% of private employment and most state, local, and federal jobs
• Data availability: 1990-2014, start year varies by state, rolling end date
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Person Data
Protecting Personal Information
Some records enter the Census Bureau with SSNs, some with other personally identifiable information
First, the SSN is replaced with a “protected identification key” (PIK).
The PIK is used for all further matching.
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LED Data Products Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI)
Employment, Job Creation, Job Destruction, Hires, Separations, Turnover, Earnings
By industry, county, and worker characteristics LEHD Origin Destination Employment Statistics
(LODES) Employment and Workplace-Residence Connections Detailed geography + firm/worker characteristics
Job-to-Job Flows (Beta) Data being released over coming months
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Data Product Infrastructure – Primary Unit of Analysis: Job
Association of: Worker–Employer–Year–Quarter Workers can have multiple jobs within a quarter
“Primary Job” (greatest earnings) - not defined separately in QWI, but is in LODES/OnTheMap
In contrast, most other surveys and censuses are: Household-based (ACS, CPS, Decennial), or Employer-based (QCEW, Current Employment Statistics)
Advantage of job-based frame – can produce tabulations by both worker and firm characteristics
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Core Data Input: UI Earnings Records
UI = Unemployment Insurance Record of individual earnings for covered jobs
Administrative wage records, not UI claims data Collected for operation of state UI program
UI benefits are based on historical earnings Includes:
Total quarterly earnings for each job Firm identifier = State UI account number (SEIN) Worker identifier = Protected Identification Key (PIK)
Census identifier based on SSN
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Job Coverage in UI Earnings Data Most private sector jobs covered
For-profit and not-for-profit classified together (as per QCEW standard)
State and local government also in system, though some reporting inconsistencies
Federal worker data from Office of Personnel Management (OPM) not yet available in QWI (have been incorporated into LODES/OnTheMap)
Self-employed not available Massachusetts data not available yet
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Additional Data Inputs
UI wage records are linked to a variety of other data sources
Sources of establishment information: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS)
Sources of demographic information: Decennial Census Federal Tax Records Social Security Administration Records Other census and administrative records
This additional information enables tabulations by detailed worker and firm characteristics
Creating LODES Data: Sources
Confidential Data Sources: UI Wage Records QCEW Other Censuses and Surveys StARS
Public Use Data Sources 2000 Decennial (SF1, CTPP) TIGER/Line Shapefiles Previous year of OnTheMap
LEDInfrastructure
Files
Creating LODES Data: Processing
Unlike QWI, much of the processing is performed at the national level, starting with the definition of Primary/Dominant Job.
Also unlike QWI, data for previous years are not reproduced with every production cycle – LODES is constrained by a “confidentiality budget”
One year is processed at a time because of the requirement of a previous year of data for the synthetic method.
Creating LODES Data: Confidentiality Protection
Two main processes are taking place to protect OnTheMap data: Noise Infusion – Applied to
workplace totals. Synthetic Data Methods – Applied
to residential locations.
For more information, see: http://lehd.ces.census.gov/led/datatools/doc/OTMSyntheticData%2005262009-jma.pdfhttp://lehd.ces.census.gov/led/datatools/doc/SyntheticDataDiagram%2006082009_JMA.pdf
Releasing LODES Data Public Data Release has two file types: OD
Connects a home block with a work block. Gives one count of jobs for each home-work block
pair and for each combination of year, job type, and segment variables.
RAC/WAC Provides totals on residence/workplace side only. Gives one total for each worker/job characteristic
for each combination of year, job type, and segment variables.
Releasing LODES DataJobs are classified by:
Whether the job is a worker’s primary/dominant job.
Whether the job is in the private sector. Whether the job is sourced from OPM*.
The six Job Types are: All Jobs, Primary Jobs, All Private Jobs, Private
Primary Jobs, All Federal Jobs*, and Federal Primary Jobs.*
* The Federal Job Types are only broken out in the raw LODES data. Only four Job Types are available in OnTheMap
Note: A job in LODES are defined as Beginning of Quarter Employment, which means the worker was employed by the same employer in both the current (2nd) and previous (1st) quarter.
Releasing LODES Data Labor Market Segment
Jobs are aggregated by 10 “segments” determined by a worker’s/firm’s characteristics.
The 10 segments are: All Workers Workers by Age (29 or younger; 30-54; 55 or older) Workers by Earnings ($1,250/mo or less; $1,251/mo to
$3,333/mo; greater than $3,333/mo) Workers by Firm’s Industry (Goods Producing; Trade,
Transportation, and Utilities; All Other Services)
OD Data is reported for each segment. Segments are similar to but not the same as
characteristics.
Releasing LODES Data:A note about the Industry segments
Industry Segments are build from NAICS Industry Sectors* (“2-digit”) Goods Producing:
NAICS 11, 21, 23, 33-33 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities:
NAICS 22, 42, 44-45, 48-49 All Other Services
NAICS 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 61, 62, 71, 72, 81, 92
* See http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/ for more info.
Releasing LODES Data
Characteristics: (available only in RACAC d 3 Age Characteristics – Comparable to Age
Segments 3 Earnings Characteristics – Comparable to
Earnings Segments 20 Industry Characteristics (NAICS Sectors) 6 Race Characteristics 2 Ethnicity Characteristics 4 Educational Attainment Characteristics 2 Sex Characteristics
Releasing LODES Data:Downloadable Data
Main vs. Aux To make it easier for users to limit the
amount of data they need to download, the files have been split by state of employment and state of residence.
Main: Jobs of workers who are employed in the state and reside in the state.
Aux: Jobs of workers who are employed in the state and reside out of state.
Releasing LODES Data:Downloadable Data
Releasing LODES Data:Downloadable Data
LODES data is available on the LED website: http://lehd.ces.census.gov/data/#lodes
LODES data is also available for bulk download through the following http site: http://lehd.ces.census.gov/data/lodes/
See OnTheMap Data Technical Document (http://lehd.ces.census.gov/data/lodes/LODES7/LODESTechDoc7.0.pdf) for more detail.
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QWI Measures 32 indicators on:
Employment Counts of jobs (Individual) Hiring and Separation counts and rates (Individual) Job Creation and Destruction (Firm)
Earnings Average earnings for selected job histories Total earnings
Some indicators are special-purpose measures used in calculation of various rates
Files and applications organized by state
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QWI Aggregation Levels: Firm
Firm-level characteristics: Based on national-level firm, sourced from Business
Dynamics Statistics (BDS) Firm Age (years)
0-1, 2-3, 4-5, 6-10, 11+ Firm Size (employees)
0-19, 20-49, 50-249, 250-499, 500+
Firm Age and Size available only for private ownership Reduced detail on geography/industry tabulations (3-
and 4- digit NAICS are only available for state-level totals)
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QWI Aggregation Levels: Establishment
Establishment-level characteristics: Geography
State totals County, Metro, Workforce Investment Board (WIB) areas
Industry All industries NAICS Sectors, Sub-sectors (3-digit), Industry groups (4-digit)
Ownership All (Public + private) Private-only
All crossings of these characteristics reported (with a few exceptions for firm age and firm size)
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QWI Aggregation Levels: Employee Age/Sex
Age (years) 14-18, 19-21, 22-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-99
Sex Male, Female
We use the age categories specified in the Workforce Investment Act (WIA)
Data comes from a variety of sources (Decennial Census, surveys and administrative records)
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QWI Aggregation Levels: Employee Education
Education categories: Less than high school High school or equivalent, no college Some college or Associate degree Bachelor’s degree or advanced degree Educational Attainment Not Available (age 24 or younger)
Valid only for individuals age 25 and up Reflects person’s maximum education level
Crossed by Sex in QWI tabulations Sourced from decennial census where available;
otherwise, imputed using multinomial logit model
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QWI Aggregation Levels: Employee Race/Ethnicity
Tabulated according to categories defined by the Office of Management and Budget: Race
White alone African-American or Black alone Asian or Pacific alone Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander alone American Indian or Alaska Native alone Two or More Races
Ethnicity Hispanic or Latino Not Hispanic or Latino
Race and Ethnicity are cross-tabulated in public QWI data Use data from Decennial Census where available; otherwise, impute using
Census file provided from Social Security Administration (SSA)
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Concept: Employment History Jobs are linked across time Diagram illustration:
Diagram Legend:
Reference quarter t Earlier quarters (-), Later quarters (+)
RED: positive earning BLACK: zero earning COMBINED: earning in ANY ONE of the quarter GREY: quarters not referenced
Measure -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 t +1 +2 +3 +4 +5
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Overview: Employment MeasuresMeasure -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 t +1 +2 +3 +4 +5
Count of Jobs (Flow Employment)EmpTotal
Beginning-of-quarter EmploymentEmp
End-of-quarter EmploymentEmpEnd
Full-quarter (Stable) EmploymentEmpS
Full-quarter (Stable) Employment, previous quarterEmpSpv
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Overview: Earnings Measures for Employment Counts
Measure -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 t +1 +2 +3 +4 +5
Average Monthly Earnings for Beginning-of-quarter JobsEarnBeg $
Average Monthly Earnings for Full-quarter JobsEarnS $
Total Reported EarningsPayroll $
All income amounts reported for UI wages Mix of full-time and part-time jobs (not adjusted for
hours) Average earnings are based on quarterly wage record,
divided by 3 (monthly estimate)
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Overview: Worker Flows Measures – Accessions
Measure -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 t +1 +2 +3 +4 +5
All Hires (Accessions)HirA
New HiresHirN
RecallsHirR
End-of-quarter HiresHirAEnd
Full-quarter HiresHirAS
New Hires into Full-quarter EmploymentHirNS
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Overview: Worker Flows Measures – Separations
Measure -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 t +1 +2 +3 +4 +5
SeparationsSep
Beginning-of-quarter SeparationsSepBeg
Separations from Full-quarter EmploymentSepS
Separations from Full-quarter Employment, next quarterSepSnx
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Overview: Earnings for Worker Flow Measures
Measure -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 t +1 +2 +3 +4 +5
Average Monthly Earnings for Hires to Full-Quarter EmploymentEarnHirAS $
Average Monthly Earnings for New Hires to Full-Quarter EmploymentEarnHirNS $
Average Monthly Earnings for Separations from Full-Quarter EmploymentEarnSepS $
All are based full-quarter counts, which are less biased by jobs that began or ended part-way through the quarter
Average earnings are based on quarterly wage record, divided by 3 (monthly estimate)
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Hiring Rate End-of-Quarter hires divided by the average of Beginning-of-
Quarter and End-of-Quarter employment
HirAEndRt =
Bounded by 0% and 200% How can I use this?
“What fraction of the workforce are starting or returning to new jobs?”
Measure -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 t +1 +2 +3 +4 +5
HirAEndEmp
EmpEnd
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Separation Rate Beginning-of-Quarter separations divided by the average
of Beginning-of-Quarter and End-of-Quarter employment
SepBegRt =
Bounded by 0% and 200% How can I use this?
“What fraction of the workforce are leaving their jobs?”Measure -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 t +1 +2 +3 +4 +5
EmpEmpEnd
SepBeg
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Turnover Rate Measure of worker reallocation (“churn”) Measure of employment volatility
Incorporates both hires and separations
TurnOvrSt= If a firm of 100 individuals has 10 separations, and replaces
them with 10 hires => 10% turnover How can I use this?
“Which age group has the most employment volatility?” “Which industry has the highest employment churning?”
Measure -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 t +1 +2 +3 +4 +5
HirAS
SepSnx
EmpS
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Overview: Firm-Based Measures:Flows, Creations, Destructions
Measure Description Category
FrmJbGn Job Creation (Gain)Creations
FrmJbGnS Full-quarter Job Creation
FrmJbLs Job Destruction (Loss)Destructions
FrmJbLsS Full-quarter Job Destruction
FrmJbC Net Job Flows
FlowsFrmJbCS Net Full-quarter Job Flows
HirAEndRepl Replacement Hires
HirAEndReplR Replacement Hire Rate
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Measuring Firm-Level Worker Flows Firm job flows display dynamics at the
establishment level Job creation
Establishments that grow over the quarter Establishment births
Job destruction Establishments that shrink over the quarter Establishment deaths
Net Job Change = Job Creation – Job Destruction
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Firm Job Flow Measures (1 of 2) Calculated at establishment level
Job Gain (FrmJbGn) Difference between End-of-quarter and Beginning-of-quarter employment
(EmpEnd - Emp) zero if negative
Job Loss (FrmJbLs) Difference between Beginning-of-quarter and End-of-quarter employment (Emp -
EmpEnd) zero if negative
Net Job Flows (FrmJbC) Difference between End-of-quarter and Beginning-of-quarter employment
(EmpEnd - Emp) Can be positive (net job creation) or negative (net job destruction)
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 t +1 +2 +3 +4 +5
Emp
EmpEnd
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Firm Job Flow Measures (2 of 2) Full-Quarter measures are defined similarly:
Full-Quarter Job Creation (FrmJbGnS) Difference between Full-Quarter employment (EmpS - EmpSpv)
zero if negative
Full-Quarter Job Destruction (FrmJbLsS) Difference between Full-Quarter employment (EmpSpv - EmpS)
zero if negative
Full-Quarter Net Job Flows (FrmJbCS) Difference between Full-Quarter employment (EmpS - EmpSpv)
Can be positive (net job growth) or negative (net job destruction)-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 t +1 +2 +3 +4 +5
EmpSpv
EmpS
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Replacement Hiring Hiring and Job Creation are not necessarily equal:
Job Creation means more end-of-quarter employment than beginning-of-quarter employment at a firm But – there may be high levels of “churn” at firms, even without net
employment growth
To capture this, we define replacement hires: Replacement Hires (HirAEndRepl) are hires in excess of job
creation:HirAEndRepl = HirAEnd – FrmJbGn
The Replacement Hiring Rate (HirAEndReplR) is replacement hires as a percentage of average employment:
HirAEndReplR =
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QWI Estimates:Source of Replacement Hires
Y200
6Q1
Y200
6Q2
Y200
6Q3
Y200
6Q4
Y200
7Q1
Y200
7Q2
Y200
7Q3
Y200
7Q4
Y200
8Q1
Y200
8Q2
Y200
8Q3
Y200
8Q4
Y200
9Q1
Y200
9Q2
Y200
9Q3
Y200
9Q4
Y201
0Q1
Y201
0Q2
Y201
0Q3
Y201
0Q4
Y201
1Q1
Y201
1Q2
Y201
1Q3
Y201
1Q4
Y201
2Q1
Y201
2Q2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Job creation End-of-quarter hires
Empl
oym
ent (
Mill
ions
)
Replacement Hires
Data: QWI pooled across all available states
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Choosing Among LED Data Products
Data Product
Why Choose It? Potential Drawbacks
QWI You need employment, hires, separations, turnover, or earnings by detailed industry or person characteristics, quarterly time resolution, or a relatively short data lag
No geography below county; no residential information
LODES You need employment for detailed or customized geography, or you need the residential patterns of the workforce
Annual time resolution; less detailed firm/person characteristics; significant data lag (temporary)
J2J You need to understand transitions of workers among jobs
Data product still under development*
*But feedback is welcome.
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Choosing Data 1When should I be interested in using LED data compared to other available statistics?
Suppose I’m primarily interested in Employment
Do I need the latest national estimate available?
• Current Employment Statistics (CES) • Employment by industry - ‘the payroll survey’
• Current Population Survey (CPS)• Employment status and demographics - ‘the
household survey’
Some sub-state geographies are available concurrently through Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
?
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But suppose I need either sub-national employment data or statistics by detailed industry:
Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)• Employment by detailed industry, sub-state geography
and better employment coverage (6-month lag)Quarterly Workforce Statistics (QWI)
• Employment by detailed industry, sub-state geography, and worker demographics (age, sex, education, race) and fewer cell suppressions than the QCEW (9-month lag)
American Community Survey (ACS)• Employment status by more sub-state geographies than
CPS/LAUS (9-month lag)LODES/OnTheMap
• Employment at the block-level (>1 year lag)County Business Patterns (CBP)
• Employment at the zipcode-level (>1 year lag)
Choosing Data 2
?
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Suppose I’m primarily interested in Hires/Separations/Turnover
Do I need the most current national data (1 month lag) or do I want to differentiate between quits and layoffs?• Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
(JOLTS)
Do I need sub-national data (state/county), data by worker demographics, or for detailed industries?• Quarterly Workforce Statistics (QWI)
Choosing Data 3
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Suppose I’m primarily interested in Wages
State and Regional Wage Information by Occupation?• Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)
Wages by Detailed Industry and Geography? • Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)
Wages by Detailed Industry and Geography and by Worker Demographics? Starting Wages for New Hires by Industry and Geography?• Quarterly Workforce Statistics (QWI)
Choosing Data 4
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Choosing Data 5Suppose I’m primarily interested in Commuting
Transportation mode, time to work, work at home?• American Community Survey (ACS) Commuting Data
Commuting for Detailed/Custom Areas or Multiple Jobholders? • LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES)
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Enough Slides!
Let’s open up the LED Applications and get our hands on the data
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Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI)
• Detailed workforce dynamics, by worker characteristics and firm characteristics
• Popular uses: • Local workforce
demographics• Local industry workforce
trends• Workforce turnover, job
creation and destruction
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2002Q2
2003Q1
2003Q4
2004Q3
2005Q2
2006Q1
2006Q4
2007Q3
2008Q2
2009Q1
2009Q4
2010Q3
2011Q2
2012Q145%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
Actual
Constant 2002 Industry Shares
Percentage of Female Workers at New Firms, 2002 - 2012
Note: "New Firms" are firms of age 0 or 1. "Actual" is the percentage of female workers at new firms observed in the data. "Constant 2002 Industry Shares" measures the hypothetical percentage of female workers at new firms, assuming that the distribution of new firms across industries remained constant at their 2002Q2 levels. Data is for privately-owned firms and excludes workers in the following states: AZ, AR, DC, MA, MS & NH. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies, Quarterly Workforce Indicators, 2013 Q3 Release
• Can see workforce composition by detailed firm characteristics
• Such as what share of the workforce at startup firms is female?
Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI)
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Job-to-Job Flows Types of questions that can be answered:
How did the growth and decline in construction jobs in the last decade impact the ability of low-wage workers to move to better jobs?
Where are North Dakota’s oil boom workers coming from?
Download data from http://lehd.ces.census.gov/data/j2j_beta.html
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Job-to-Job flows
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Job-to-Job flows
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QWI: Combining More than One Indicator to Create New Insights
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QWI: Combining More than One Indicator to Create New Insights
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QWI: Combining More than One Indicator to Create New Insights
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Public Data Tools
All tools are free and available 24/7. Live Demonstrations of
QWI Explorer LED Extraction Tool (QWI) OnTheMap OnTheMap for Emergency Management
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Web Addresses for Tools
QWI Explorer http://qwiexplorer.ces.census.gov/
LED Extraction Tool http://ledextract.ces.census.gov/
OnTheMap http://onthemap.ces.census.gov/
OnTheMap for Emergency Management http://onthemap.ces.census.gov/em.html
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What Questions Can LED Answer?
Which industries in my region are hiring older workers?
Younger workers?
Workers without a high school diploma?
What do these jobs pay?
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Questions
Where do the workers employed downtown live?
What share of workers employed in my community also live there?
What share of workers with a short commute have a college degree?
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Questions
Where did ND’s oil and gas workers come from (industry/geography)?
Where did MI’s auto workers go to (industry/geography)?
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QWI Explorer 32 Quarterly Workforce
Indicators Flexible Pivot Table/Chart
interface Data on detailed interactions
between firms and workers include employment, employment change (individual and firm), and earnings
Analyze/report by worker demographics: age, earnings, race, ethnicity, educational attainment, and sex
Analyze/report by firm
characteristics: NAICS
classification (sector, 3, 4), firm
age, and firm size Quarterly data very current
(9-12 months old) 49 states available (plus DC,
MA coming soon)
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OnTheMap: Where workers live, and where they work
• This map shows LODES data of where residents of Vancouver, Washington work
• Popular uses: • local economic
development• business site
selection• emergency planning
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OnTheMap
Where do workers live? Where do residents work? What are the commuter flows
of a particular area? Analyze/report by worker
demographics: age, earnings, race, ethnicity, educational attainment, and sex
Analyze/report by firm characteristics: NAICS Sector, firm age, and firm size
2002-2011 annual data 49 states available (plus DC,
MA coming soon) User-selected areas Based on Census Blocks Disclosure protection Flexible Inputs/Outputs
Recognized by United Nations as a major U.S. statistical innovation
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OnTheMap: Block-level employment detail
Hurricanes, Floods,Winter Storms
Disaster Areas
Wildfires
Demographic & Economic Data
• Comprehensive Reports
• Real-time Data Updates
• Easy-to-use & Interoperable
• Historical Event Archive
• Flexible Analyses & Visualizations
New Public Data Service for Emergency Preparedness & Response
OnTheMap for Emergency Management
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Hurricane Sandy - October 25, 2012
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Real World Examples
Some brief examples of from our users…
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LODES: An Examination of Maryland Enterprise Zones
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LODES: An Examination of Maryland Enterprise Zones
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QWI: Education and Employment in Utah
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QWI: A Comparison of I-95 and I-270 Corridors
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Kansas City, MO – Earnings Tax
Civic Council of Greater Kansas City 1% Earnings Tax on gross compensation for all
those living or working in KCMO In 2010 & 2011, ballot challenges to the tax
were brought to voters LODES and QWI from LED helped the
community focus on “issues and outcomes” and showed “tax and benefits are shared with non-KCMO residents.”
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Takeaways
The LED Partnership provides unique data products and tools at a relatively low cost
LED data products (QWI, LODES, J2J) can give insight into local and regional economies and labor markets
LED’s web tools provide free, 24/7 access to a basic analytical platform for the data
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Thank You! Local Employment Dynamics
lehd.ces.census.gov Contact
[email protected] [email protected]
Tools QWIExplorer.ces.census.gov LEDExtract.ces.census.gov OnTheMap.ces.census.gov OnTheMap.ces.census.gov/em.html
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