Lies, Damn Lies, and A Look Back at The Election of 2000

ICTM 2004Kathleen Rapp Smith

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies and

statistics….

Benjamin Disraeli...

as attributed to Mark Twain

in his Autobiography

Why Statistics?

• What better way to relate

math to real life?• What better way to bring the media into math class?• What better source of non-routine problems?• What better way to integrate other subjects?• What could be a more useful life skill?• What better way to span the math curriculum?

An Algebra Lesson• Statement:

“Gore is up in Michigan 45% to 37%, still a statistical dead heat when considering the 4 point margin of error.” True or False?

What questions could be addressed?

• What does “margin of error” mean?• Does it apply to each candidate or to the difference between them?• What do we do with the unreported 18%?• What does “dead heat” mean?• How could we model this?• How can we engage the students with this

question?

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Random Vote Generator

BUSH GORE

DEAD HEAT 2004

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BUSH KERRY

“Gore is up in Michigan 45% to 37%, still a statistical dead heat when considering the 4 point margin of error.”

Some Additional Questions?

• How was this information obtained?• How many people need to be contacted?• How much does it cost?• What exactly is “margin of error”?• What are other sampling problems?

The worst question ever…..

Are you in favor of direct retaliatory measures against Franco’s piracy?

IS THIS THE CAUSE OF ALL THE FUSS?

McREYNOLDS’ VOTES BY COUNTY

A Look at Exit Polls• Where do they come from?

• How are they conducted?

• How are they interpreted?

• What went wrong?

• What points do we want to make with the students?

• How do we engage them with this issue?

What was the Final “Official” Vote in Florida?

• Bush 2,912,790

• Gore: 2,912,253

• A difference of 537votes!

• Why not just flip a coin?

What About the Electoral College?

• History of Electoral College• Current setup of the College• Does it need to be changed?

What you might address:

States 92-Rep-% 92-Dem-% 96-Rep-% 96-Dem-% 00-Rep- % 00-Dem-% Elec. V.Alabama 47.65 40.88 50.12 43.16 56.48 41.57 9Alaska 39.46 30.29 50.8 33.27 58.62 27.67 3Arizona 38.47 36.52 44.29 46.52 51.02 44.73 8Arkansas 35.48 53.21 36.8 53.74 51.31 45.86 6California 32.61 46.01 38.21 51.1 41.65 53.45 54Colorado 35.87 40.13 45.8 44.43 50.65 42.39 8Connecticut 35.78 42.21 34.69 52.83 38.44 55.91 8Delaware 35.31 43.51 36.58 51.82 41.9 54.96 3DC 9.1 84.64 9.34 85.19 8.95 85.16 3Florida 40.89 39 42.32 48.02 48.85 48.84 25Georgia 42.88 43.47 47.01 45.84 54.67 42.98 13Hawaii 36.7 48.09 31.64 56.93 37.46 55.79 4Idaho 42.03 28.42 52.18 33.65 67.17 27.64 4Illinois 34.34 48.58 36.81 54.31 42.58 54.6 22Indiana 42.91 36.79 47.13 41.55 56.65 41.01 12Iowa 37.27 43.29 39.92 50.26 48.22 48.54 7Kansas 38.88 33.74 54.29 36.08 58.04 37.24 6Kentucky 41.34 44.55 45.84 44.88 56.5 41.37 8Louisiana 40.97 45.58 39.94 52.01 52.55 44.88 9Maine 30.39 38.77 30.76 51.62 43.97 49.09 4Maryland 35.62 49.8 38.27 54.25 40.18 56.57 10Massachusetts 29.02 47.54 28.08 61.47 32.5 59.8 12Michigan 36.38 43.77 38.48 51.69 46.14 51.28 18Minnesota 31.85 43.48 34.96 51.1 45.5 47.91 10Mississippi 49.68 40.77 49.21 44.08 57.62 40.7 7Missouri 33.92 44.07 41.24 47.54 44.11 47.08 11Montana 35.12 37.63 44.11 41.23 58.44 33.36 3Nebraska 46.58 29.4 53.66 34.95 62.25 33.25 5Nevada 34.73 37.36 42.91 43.93 49.52 45.98 4New Hampshire 37.64 38.86 39.37 49.32 48.07 46.8 4New Jersey 40.58 42.95 35.86 53.72 40.29 56.13 15New Mexico 37.34 45.9 41.86 49.18 47.85 49.91 5

The Electoral College system tends to exaggerate the vote:

Clinton DolePopular Vote 49% 41%Electoral College 70% 30%States Won 62% 38%

Visit the Website:

www.mste.uiuc.edu/smith/ smithka@cmi.k12.il.us

And enjoy the election of 2004...

Election 2002 Websites Where we will put all the stuff you have seen today www.mste.uiuc.edu/smith  National archives has a nice informational site on the Electoral College and the 2000 election, http://www.nara.gov/fedreg/elctcoll/2000res.html  108 pages of article titles pertaining to the 2000 election. http://www.dailynews.yahoo.com/fc/us/Presidential_Election_2000/ The results of the exit polling in Florida www.abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/2000vote/general/fl_epollgridPres.html  Supreme Court of Florida: The Presidential Election Case http://www.flcourts.org http://www.flcourts.org/sct/sctdocs/ops/sc00-2431-remand.pdf  

A Note on the Voting Irregularities in Palm Beach http://www.madison.hss.cmu.edu/  The Electoral College http://www.fec.gov/pages/ecmenu2.htm  M123 -Apportionment Methods http://www.brinkley.isu.edu/~hoffjame/m123/apportion.html  Palm Beach County Election Analysis http://www.bestbookmarks.com/election/#links  Journal of Statistics Education http://www.amstat.org/pubtications/jse/secure/v8n3/gourgey.cfm