LABORATORY FOR MARITIME TRANSPORT
SCHOOL OF NAVAL ARCHITECTURE AND MARINE ENGINEERING
NATIONAL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF ATHENS
Nikolaos P. Ventikos
Exploring fire incidents/accidentsonboard cruise
and passenger ships
MASSEP 2013, Athens, 30 & 31 May, 2013
The work presented herein was partially supported by the EC-funded project “Probabilistic Framework for Onboard Safety” (FIREPROOF), SCP7-GA-2008-218761, coordinated by the University of Strathclyde, Department of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering – The Ship Stability Research Centre (SSRC)
Acknowledgments
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships
I would like to thank and acknowledge the substantial role of Ms. M. Petsou and Mr. G. Papamichalis (they are both naval architects and marine engineers from NTUA) in the development and conclusion of this high level statistical analysis of fire/ignition events onboard passenger/cruise vessels
The Set-Up of the Presentation
Sections
Section 1
Section 2
Section 3
Section 4
Section 5
Section 6
Objectives of the Research
Literature Review (indicative)
Methodology: Database and Elements
Results (from multi level analysis)
Discussion
(Instead of ) Conclusions
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships
Objectives of the Research
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships
Section 1
Compilation of a comprehensive database on maritime fire accidents
The database would help identify statistical data on some significant aspects that would serve to provide priori probabilities for the ignition models
Objectives of the Research
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships
Develop a method for generating fire scenarios according to their probability of incidence
Section 1
Section 2
Section 3
Section 4
Section 5
Section 6
Literature Review
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships
Section 2
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships
Literature Review
Indicative List of Relative Publications
Da Veiga et al.
(1999)
Darbra & Casal
(2004)
Vlaun et al.
(2001)Ventikos
et al. (2007)
Gruarin et al.
(2007)
Nikolaou & Spyrou (2010)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Oikonomou & Ventikos
(2010)
Themeliset al.
(2011)
Soares & Texeira (2001)
Section 1
Section 2
Section 3
Section 4
Section 5
Section 6
Mendiola et al.
(2010)
Hakkarainen et al.
(2009)
Galea et al.(2012)
Methodology: Database and Elements
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships
Section 3
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships
Methodology: Database and Elements
DB Identity and Fields
Section 1
Section 2
Section 3
Section 4
Section 5
Section 6
• Incident Date and Time• Location of the vessel• Weather Contribution• Onboard Location + SOLAS Cat.• Detection• Adjacent Detector Activated• Suppression means• Time to detect (mins)• Time to extinguish (mins)• Ventilation status
• Fire Door status• Space Occupied• Crew Presence• Boundary Cooling status• Human Factor Contribution• Emergency Response Failure• Containment Failure• Ignition in Adjacent Spaces• Severity • Source Ignition
Ignitions and Fires on cruise and passenger ships – period: 2003–2010 – with 1521 records (provided by operators)
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships
Methodology: Database and Elements
SOLAS Space Categories
Section 1
Section 2
Section 3
Section 4
Section 5
Section 6
The 14 spaces defined by SOLAS were adopted so that every further proposition for fire safety regulation could be easily adapted with minimum confusion
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships
Methodology: Database and Elements
Why is this Database Interesting?
Section 1
Section 2
Section 3
Section 4
Section 5
Section 6
Ignitions and Fires on cruise and passenger shipsperiod: 2003–2010 with 1521 records(provided by operators)
Fires&Explosions for any type of passenger vessel (incl. cruise ships) period: 1999–2009 with 63 records(provided by a commercial database)
UNDERRPORTING!!
Results (from statistical analysis)
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships
Section 4
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships
Results
Distribution of Records per SOLAS Space Category
Section 1
Section 2
Section 3
Section 4
Section 5
Section 6
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships
Results
Distribution of whether the Fire was Detected or not
Section 1
Section 2
Section 3
Section 4
Section 5
Section 6
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships
Results
Distribution of Records per Ignition Source
Section 1
Section 2
Section 3
Section 4
Section 5
Section 6
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships
Results
Distribution of Records per Severity Category
Section 1
Section 2
Section 3
Section 4
Section 5
Section 6
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships
Results
Activation or not of the Detector of an Adjacent Space
Section 1
Section 2
Section 3
Section 4
Section 5
Section 6
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships
Results
Analysis of Ignition Sources for Fires on Passenger Ships
Section 1
Section 2
Section 3
Section 4
Section 5
Section 6
Ignition Sources n % P-value
Electrical 458 30.11Hot surface / Electrical other than static charges 0.039
Cigarettes 339 22.29
Hot surface 187 12.29Burning/Welding/ Cutting / Cigarettes, Matches etc 0.007
Spontaneous Combustion 219 14.40
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships
Results
Frequency Rates for Fires (all vs. severe events)
Section 1
Section 2
Section 3
Section 4
Section 5
Section 6
Average Frequency / ship-year 3.284
Average fleet size / year 125
Expected number of events / year 410.52
Average Frequency / ship-year 4x10-3
Average fleet size / year 125Expected number of events / year 5.4x10-1
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships
Results
Frequency Rate per SOLAS Space Category (all fires)
Section 1
Section 2
Section 3
Section 4
Section 5
Section 6
SOLAS SPACE CATEGORY
SOLAS Space Category No5
SOLAS Space Category No7
SOLAS Space Category No8
SOLAS Space Category No9
SOLAS Space Category No12
SOLAS Space Category No13
Number of Fire Incidents (all incidents) for each SOLAS space category
72 319 192 55 642 126
Average Frequency / ship-year 1.6x10-1 6.9x10-1 4.1x10-1 1.2x10-1 1.39 2.7x10-1
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships
Results
Time Evolution of Frequency Rates per Ignition Source
Section 1
Section 2
Section 3
Section 4
Section 5
Section 6
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships
Results
Tests for Statistical Significance
Section 1
Section 2
Section 3
Section 4
Section 5
Section 6
Discussion
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships
Section 5
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships
Discussion
Frequency Rates for Fires (commercial vs. developed dbs )
Fleet at risk (ship-years) 40,707
Average Frequency / ship-year (serious) 0.001
Average Frequency / ship-year (total losses) 0.00027
Average Frequency / ship-year (severe) 4x10-3
Average Frequency / ship-year (significant+severe) 0.030
Average Frequency / ship-year (all records) 3.284
Section 1
Section 2
Section 3
Section 4
Section 5
Section 6
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships
Discussion
Frequency Rate for FX (SURSHIP-FIRE vs. developed dbs )
Section 1
Section 2
Section 3
Section 4
Section 5
Section 6
(Instead of) Conclusions
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships
Section 6
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships
(Instead of) Conclusions
UNDERREPORTING
Ignitions and Fires on cruise and passenger shipsperiod: 2003–2010 with 1521 records(provided by operators)
Fires&Explosions for any type of passenger vessel (incl. cruise ships) period: 1999–2009 with 63 records(provided by a commercial database)
This might be a problem for all types of marine accidents ; however it is mainly recorded in the case of fires
Section 1
Section 2
Section 3
Section 4
Section 5
Section 6
Nikolaos P. Ventikos
LABORATORY FOR MARITIME TRANSPORT
SCHOOL OF NAVAL ARCHITECTURE AND MARINE ENGINEERING
NATIONAL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF ATHENS
Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships THANK YOU VERY
MUCH FOR YOUR ATTENTION
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