Presentation to the Yunnan Forestry Visiting Delegation to the Faculty of
Forestry, UBC, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, April29th, 2005
ByBy
J. P. (Hamish) KimminsJ. P. (Hamish) Kimmins
Professor of Forest EcologyProfessor of Forest Ecology
Senior Canada Research Chair in Forest Ecosystem Senior Canada Research Chair in Forest Ecosystem ModellingModelling
Faculty of Forestry, UBCFaculty of Forestry, UBC
James Peter (Hamish) Kimmins
Professor of Forest Ecology
Canada Research Chair in Forest Ecosystem Modelling
Director, Forest Ecosystem Management Simulation Laboratory,
Department of Forest Sciences
Faculty of Forestry,
Forest Sciences Center
2424 Main Mall, UBC,
Vancouver, B.C., Canada
V6T 1Z4
Member, UNESCO World Commission on the Ethics of Scientific Knowledge and
Technology (COMEST). Chair, Ethics of Energy Sub-commission. COMEST
representative on UNESCO's Task Force on Environmental Ethics
Honorary Professor, Nanjing Forestry University
Web pages: http://www.forestry.ubc.ca/forestmodels/,
http://www.forestry.ubc.ca/modelresearch/
tel: 604-822-3549, sect. 604-822-6018
fax: 604-822-9133
email: [email protected]
Ecosystem Management Ecosystem Management ModellingModelling
EcologicallyEcologically--based Decision Support Systems based Decision Support Systems
for Forestryfor Forestry
A stand-level foundation for sustainable forest
management in the face of environmental change
Hamish KimminsHamish Kimmins
Canada Research Chair in Modeling the Sustainability of ForestsCanada Research Chair in Modeling the Sustainability of Forests
Professor of Forest EcologyProfessor of Forest Ecology
Department of Forest Sciences,Department of Forest Sciences,
Faculty of ForestryFaculty of Forestry
Coastal Douglas-fir Zone –
dry, warm summers; wet, mild winters. Maritime(oceanic),
semi-Mediterranean (subtropical) climate
CanadaCanada’’s s ““banana beltbanana belt””
Douglas-fir, Grand fir,
Arbutus, Garry oak,
bigleaf maple
Low elevationLow elevation
Fire, root rots,
drought
Vancouver
Coastal Western Hemlock Zone –
wet cool winters, generally mild to warm summers.
Coastal, montane climate
CanadaCanada’’s temperate rainforests temperate rainforest
Western hemlock , Douglas-fir,
amabilis fir, western redcedar
Low to medium elevationLow to medium elevation
Wind, landslide
Mountain Hemlock Zone –
long, cool–cold winters, deep snowpack (2-10m), short warm
summers. Coastal subalpine climate
CanadaCanada’’s west coast , s west coast , ““warm warm snowpacksnowpack””subalpinesubalpine
forest. The west coast ski zoneforest. The west coast ski zone
Mountain hemlock, amabilis fir,
yellow cedar
Medium to high elevationMedium to high elevation
Avalanche, snowpress
Ponderosa Pine and Grassland Zones –
Very dry, long hot summer, relatively mild to cool winters.
Semi-arid, subcontinental climate
CanadaCanada’’s semis semi--desert forest/western grasslandsdesert forest/western grasslands
Low elevation Low elevation –– valley bottomsvalley bottoms
Ponderosa pine, Douglas fir,
juniper, sage, grass
Fire, drought, browsing
Interior Douglas-fir Zone –
Relatively short cool to cold winters; long, hot, dry
summers. Sub-continental climate
CanadaCanada’’s western savannah forests western savannah forest
Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine, ponderosa
pine, western larch, grand fir,
western birch, aspen
Low to medium elevationLow to medium elevation
Fire, insects (bark beetles,
defoliators), root rots
Montane Spruce Zone –
Long, cold, snowy winters, warm summers; relatively dry.
Subcontinental, montane climate
Medium to high elevation plateausMedium to high elevation plateaus
Interior spruce, subalpine fir, lodgepole
pine, Douglas-fir, aspen
Medium to high elevationMedium to high elevation
Fire, insects (bark
beetles, defoliators)
Engelmann Spruce Subalpine fir Zone –
Long, cold to very cold, snowy winters; short warm summers with
frequent frost, dry to humid. Continental – subcontinental
subalpine climate
The interior, cold The interior, cold snowpacksnowpack, , subalpinesubalpine forestforest
The interior ski zoneThe interior ski zone
Engelmann spruce, subalpine fir,
lodgepole pine, whitebark pine,
subalpine larch
Medium to high elevationMedium to high elevation
Fire, insects
Interior Cedar-Hemlock Zone –
wet, mild to cool winters; warm, relatively moist summers.
Subcontinental, humid climate
The interior wet belt forestThe interior wet belt forest
Western redcedar, western
hemlock, Douglas-fir,
lodgepole pine
Low to medium elevationLow to medium elevation
Fire, defoliators
Definition of ForestryDefinition of Forestry
•• The art (skill), practice, science and The art (skill), practice, science and
business of managing forest stands business of managing forest stands
and forested landscapes to sustain an and forested landscapes to sustain an
ecologically possible and socially ecologically possible and socially
desired balance of values and desired balance of values and
environmental services from that environmental services from that
landscape.landscape.
The Two Responsibilities of ForestryThe Two Responsibilities of Forestry
1.1. To change the way in which a forest is managed as the To change the way in which a forest is managed as the
desired balance of values and environmental services desired balance of values and environmental services
from that forest changes.from that forest changes.
2.2. To reject current practices and resist proposed new To reject current practices and resist proposed new
practices that are inconsistent with the ecology and practices that are inconsistent with the ecology and
sociology of the desired values and services over sociology of the desired values and services over
ecologically appropriate temporal and spatial scales.ecologically appropriate temporal and spatial scales.
How do we judge what is consistent with the How do we judge what is consistent with the
ecology of the values?ecology of the values?
Comparison between natural Comparison between natural
disturbance and silviculturedisturbance and silviculture
West coast of Vancouver Island in an West coast of Vancouver Island in an unroadedunroaded, unmanaged area, unmanaged area
Wildfire with salvage logging, near Wildfire with salvage logging, near CranbrookCranbrook, southeastern BC, southeastern BC
Cathedral Grove, Vancouver Island after the l997 windstormCathedral Grove, Vancouver Island after the l997 windstorm
Mountain pine beetle outbreak, The Flathead, southeastern BC.Mountain pine beetle outbreak, The Flathead, southeastern BC.
Paradigms for a New Forestry
•Ecosystem management
•Adaptive management
•Zonation
•Variable retention
•Natural range of variation
•Results-based vs regulation
•Monitoring/certification
All need
forecasting
tools and
decision-support
systems
Decision Support Systems in Support
of Sustainable Forestry
• Should be ecosystem-level tools – the issues in forestry are
ecosystem level, not population level or community level issues.
Levels of biological
organization
Levels of biological
integration
Ecosystem Understanding andUnderstanding and PredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPrediction EcosystemEcosystem
Community UnderstandingUnderstanding
Population UnderstandingUnderstanding
Individual UnderstandingUnderstanding and PredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPrediction IndividualIndividual
Organ systems UnderstandingUnderstanding
Organs, tissues UnderstandingUnderstanding
Cell UnderstandingUnderstanding and PredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPrediction CellCell
Sub-cellular UnderstandingUnderstanding
The need for the ecosystem level : PREDICTIONThe need for the ecosystem level : PREDICTIONThe need for the ecosystem level : PREDICTIONThe need for the ecosystem level : PREDICTION
Function of level
Tools to Forecast Succession and its
Management
• Should be ecosystem-level tools – the issues in forestry are
ecosystem level, not population level or community level issues.
• Should explicitly represent the key processes – the fundamentals
of production ecology, and key population and community
processes
Productive Capacity of EcosystemsProductive Capacity of Ecosystems
Leaf area and photosynthetic
efficiency
Net photosynthesis
Net primary production
Net biomass accumulation
Harvestable biomass/energy(Humans or other animals)Humans or other animals)
Light
Water
Nutrients
Carbon
allocation
Solar energy
Respiration
Litterfall, plant death,
root death, herbivory
Unharvested
biomass/energy
6. Tools to Forecast Succession and
its Management
• Should be ecosystem-level tools – the issues in forestry are
ecosystem level, not population level or community level issues.
• Should explicitly represent the key processes – the fundamentals
of production ecology, and key population and community
processes
• Should be cross-scale - stand-level models should be linked to
landscape models in meta-models
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM: DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM: Modelling FrameworkModelling Framework
Merchantable Merchantable
VolumeVolume
Ecosystem C Ecosystem C
StorageStorage
Snags (>25cm Snags (>25cm dbhdbh))
Early Seral Shrub Early Seral Shrub
Cover (%)Cover (%)
ProjectionProjection InterpretationInterpretation
StandStand--level Modellevel Model
(FORECAST)(FORECAST)
ForestForest--level Timber Supply Modellevel Timber Supply Model
(ATLAS)(ATLAS)Wildlife Habitat Supply ModelWildlife Habitat Supply Model
((SimForSimFor))
Visualization Visualization
SoftwareSoftware
PolygonPolygon--
BasedBasedRasterRaster--
BasedBased
What Types of Forecasting Tools?What Types of Forecasting Tools?
Stand level ecosystem management models:
AVIGATOR : FORECAST User InterfaceAVIGATOR : FORECAST User InterfaceNNFORECASTFORECAST
Non-spatial ecosystem
management stand model
Effect of Douglas-fir over-story on shrub biomass
Timber management table:
•• A management oriented, ecosystemA management oriented, ecosystem--level level modellingmodelling frameworkframework
•• Uses the hybrid simulation approach: Uses the hybrid simulation approach:
empirical historical bioassay + process simulationempirical historical bioassay + process simulation
•• Major focus is the assessment of the sustainability of a varietyMajor focus is the assessment of the sustainability of a variety of of
social and environmental values under alternative stand social and environmental values under alternative stand
management strategiesmanagement strategies
ORECASTORECASTFF
•• Site preparationSite preparation
•• Planting / Planting /
Regeneration*Regeneration*
•• Weed controlWeed control
•• Stocking controlStocking control
•• PruningPruning
•• Intermediate harvestsIntermediate harvests
•• Final harvestsFinal harvests
•• Utilization levelUtilization level
•• FertilizationFertilization
•• Nurse cropsNurse crops
•• Alternating SpeciesAlternating Species
•• Mixed speciesMixed species
•• Rotation lengthRotation length
•• Seedling size and qualitySeedling size and quality
•• Wildfire / broadcast burnWildfire / broadcast burn
•• Insect defoliationInsect defoliation
•• Wildlife browsingWildlife browsing
•• Organic waste recyclingOrganic waste recycling
•• Clearcutting / patch cutClearcutting / patch cut
•• Partial harvesting / Partial harvesting /
shelterwoodshelterwood
anagementanagement and other events which canand other events which can
be simulated:be simulated: forestry and agroforestryforestry and agroforestryMM
POSSIBLE FOREST
FUTURES:
watershed landscape
management model
LLEMSLocal Landscape Ecosystem Management Simulator
Trees Ecotone Open
* Is this a clearcut?
* What will the future
forest species composition be?
* How will Douglas-fir
compete with western
hemlock?
* Will shade tolerant
hardwoods be able to grow?
LLEMS: complex
cutblock simulator
FORCEE:
Individual tree,
complex stand model
FORECASTFORECASTNon-spatial ecosystem
management stand model
Visualization
software – stand and
landscape
What Types of Forecasting Tools?What Types of Forecasting Tools?
Landscape level ecosystem management model:
LLEMSLLEMS
Local landscape Local landscape
ecosystem ecosystem
management model management model
for complex cut block for complex cut block
design design –– under under
development: development:
NSERCNSERC-- INTERFORINTERFOR
LLEMSLLEMSLocal Landscape Ecosystem Management SimulatorLocal Landscape Ecosystem Management Simulator
TreesTrees EcotoneEcotone OpenOpen
* * Is this a Is this a clearcutclearcut??
* What will the future * What will the future
forest species composition be?forest species composition be?
* * How will DouglasHow will Douglas--fir fir
compete with western compete with western
hemlock?hemlock?
* Will shade intolerant * Will shade intolerant
hardwoods be able to grow?hardwoods be able to grow?
* * Wind, diseases?Wind, diseases?
QuestionsQuestions
What Types of Forecasting Tools?What Types of Forecasting Tools?
Landscape management scenario analysis tool for education,
extension and management gaming
POSSIBLE FOREST POSSIBLE FOREST
FUTURES:FUTURES:
Multiple value, watershed Multiple value, watershed
management scenario management scenario
analysis modelanalysis model
Based on FORECAST and Based on FORECAST and
FORWADYFORWADY
Landscape Visualization
Forest P ractices Code Scenario
Zoning Scenario
Year 25
Year 25
World Construction Set output
Arrow Lakes TSA IFPA: Lemon Creek
CALP Forester CALP Forester –– Interactive, 3Interactive, 3--D visualization toolD visualization tool
Conclusions
•We need to put biology and ecology into planning
and decision support tools in forestry
• These tools should be ecosystem-level
• They should be driven by the key determinants of
production ecology
• Landscape-level decision support tools should be
driven by stand level ecosystem management tools
Use of Such Tools in Analysis of Use of Such Tools in Analysis of
Sustainability: The Concept of Sustainability: The Concept of
Ecological RotationEcological Rotation
Ecosystem Condition
Ecosystem Condition
TimeTime
DisturbanceDisturbance
Short ecological rotationShort ecological rotation
Intermediate ecological rotation
Long ecological rotation
The Concept of Ecological RotationThe Concept of Ecological Rotation
Ecosystem Condition
Ecosystem Condition
TimeTime
1. Rotation too short1. Rotation too short
HarvestHarvestSustainable
Non-sustainable
The Concept of Ecological RotationThe Concept of Ecological Rotation
Ecosystem Condition
Ecosystem Condition
TimeTime
2. Ecosystem recovery too slow2. Ecosystem recovery too slow
HarvestHarvestSustainable
Non-sustainable
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