Download - KDD Analytics 2014 - Experts in Marketing Analytics

www.kddanalytics.com

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� Click to edit Master subtitle styleAn introduction to our capabilities…


Who are we?

� A team of statisticians, economists, business and industry subject matter experts;

� Specialists in database marketing analytics (market sizing; market simulation; segmentation; predictive prospect, campaign and churn scoring; etc), with extensive experience in the B2B space;

� Data junkies who love to get their hands dirty integrating, cleaning, modeling and visualizing client and 3rd party databases;

� Experienced professionals with particularly deep experience in the telecom, IT and energy industries.


Who do we serve?

� Our clients range from large providers of B2B marketing data to small consulting groups;

� We typically wholesale our services but can and have worked directly with end users.


What do we do?

� Simply put, we help you help your clients make more informed decisions via data analytics:

Statistical Modeling Data Modeling

•Prospect/Campaign Scoring

•Customer Churn Scoring

•Forecasting

•Segmentation

•Survey Sample Design

•Demand/Price Elasticity Estimation

•Market Sizing

•Market Simulation

•Market Opportunity Mapping

•Data Integration

•Customer Profiling

•Data Visualization

Cross pollination

What do we know?

How can weorganize it?

Can we predictwhat will happen?


Statistical Modeling

� Scoring…

What you want to

find

Attributes

Modeling

Target Population

Using model identifies more

prospects than using no model = “lift”

Target list scored from most likely prospect to

least.

ID PERCENTILE

105343236 6

138021163 8

147116482 16

201002390 17

101047263 19

202075210 19

123136008 19

105639354 21

106080974 24

111180060 24

134079517 28

144439822 29

207068360 36

114185643 37

124073515 37

143104099 40

138019692 40

134110988 46

144390826 49

132020465 57

134107700 62

120017332 71

141080328 73

133209000 74

136196993 75

144430916 77

118052109 81

110296359 84

207093595 86

207057547 97

Best customers

Churners

Buyers

Responders

Competitors

Predictive modeling is all about finding more of those you wish to find.

Target Population



� Customer Churn…

Internal Validation - Lift Analysis

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0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Decile

Lif

t

Cum Lift Lift Baseline

Top decile 2.3

times average

predicted churn

potential

External Validation - Lift Analysis

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0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Decile

Lift

Cum Lift Lift Baseline

Top decile 1.6

times average

predicted churn

potential

Models should be validated on data external to the modeling sample; such as the ~1,400 additional accounts which churned in the month

following the model build.

Churn Likelihood

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Tenure (days)

Ch

urn

Pro

ba

bilit

y

FULL CARE BDM PAM

Mean Tenure

Median Tenure



� Segmentation…

Segment

Customers

(sites) Percent

Market

(CiTDB) Percent Penetration Segment

Total IT

Spend ($M):

Customers

Average IT

Spend per

Employee:

Customers

Total IT

Spend ($M):

Non-

Customers

Average IT

Spend per

Employee:

Non-

Customers

1 404 4.1% 33,362 0.9% 1.2% 1 18$ 1,367$ 836$ 1,331$

2 381 3.9% 92,016 2.6% 0.4% 2 16$ 1,535$ 2,379$ 1,652$

3 374 3.8% 40,582 1.1% 0.9% 3 58$ 5,293$ 3,825$ 5,271$

4 327 3.3% 52,166 1.5% 0.6% 4 51$ 4,658$ 4,065$ 4,164$

5 259 2.6% 55,559 1.5% 0.5% 5 32$ 4,582$ 4,112$ 4,334$

6 608 6.2% 119,341 3.3% 0.5% 6 62$ 3,304$ 7,716$ 3,228$

7 444 4.5% 104,702 2.9% 0.4% 7 59$ 4,583$ 6,880$ 4,151$

8 404 4.1% 96,113 2.7% 0.4% 8 7$ 571$ 1,391$ 776$

9 378 3.9% 135,668 3.8% 0.3% 9 18$ 1,539$ 3,853$ 1,538$

10 367 3.8% 11,703 0.3% 3.1% 10 232$ 3,492$ 6,787$ 3,413$

11 270 2.8% 49,856 1.4% 0.5% 11 97$ 13,180$ 9,447$ 11,408$

12 227 2.3% 119,048 3.3% 0.2% 12 179$ 27,050$ 35,355$ 21,043$

13 454 4.6% 143,270 4.0% 0.3% 13 104$ 6,168$ 13,294$ 4,044$

14 400 4.1% 190,813 5.3% 0.2% 14 13$ 938$ 3,453$ 855$

15 366 3.7% 232,119 6.5% 0.2% 15 13$ 1,158$ 5,600$ 1,249$

16 285 2.9% 16,929 0.5% 1.7% 16 351$ 6,207$ 11,710$ 3,730$

17 285 2.9% 88,629 2.5% 0.3% 17 145$ 15,373$ 23,923$ 14,720$

18 235 2.4% 83,420 2.3% 0.3% 18 77$ 8,721$ 12,574$ 6,504$

19 197 2.0% 24,242 0.7% 0.8% 19 41$ 1,044$ 3,986$ 919$

20 195 2.0% 27,189 0.8% 0.7% 20 124$ 24,045$ 9,523$ 19,618$

21 173 1.8% 59,592 1.7% 0.3% 21 19$ 3,298$ 4,056$ 3,176$

22 169 1.7% 6,974 0.2% 2.4% 22 806$ 24,558$ 24,195$ 19,278$

23 151 1.5% 79,154 2.2% 0.2% 23 14$ 2,831$ 3,864$ 2,355$

Total 9,780 100.0% 3,593,931 100.0% 0.3% Total 5,147$ 4,647$ 507,689$ 4,110$

Segments 7,353 1,862,447 0.4% Segments 2,536$ 6,460$ 202,824$ 4,501$

Customer segmentation enhanced with

opportunity mapping…

Customer segmentation can be made actionable by enhancing with opportunity mapping.

12

3

45

6

7

89

10

11

12

13

1415

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

Market Penetration

Average IT

Spend (Gap)

Average

Average

High

Spend/High

Penetration

Low

Spend/High

Penetration

High

Spend/Low

Penetration

Low

Spend/Low

Penetration



� Forecasting…Non-Dynamic Simulation: 3 AR Model Average

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0.80

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1.40

1.60

11/6

/200

52/

6/200

65/

6/200

68/

6/200

611

/6/2

006

2/6/

2007

5/6/

2007

8/6/

2007

11/6

/200

72/

6/200

85/

6/200

88/

6/200

811

/6/2

008

2/6/

2009

5/6/

2009

8/6/

2009

11/6

/200

92/

6/201

05/

6/201

08/

6/201

011

/6/2

010

2/6/

2011

Actual Average Predicted MIN LC MAX UC

37,000,000

38,000,000

39,000,000

40,000,000

41,000,000

42,000,000

43,000,000

44,000,000

2014Q1 2014Q3 2015Q1 2015Q3 2016Q1 2016Q3

CRAF_FC ± 2 S.E.

Hold Out Test (18 Months)

25,000,000

26,000,000

27,000,000

28,000,000

29,000,000

30,000,000

31,000,000

32,000,000

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2010

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2011

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

Actual

18_F_ARIMA(114)

18_F_LOG_ARIMA(112)

18_F_LOG_ARIMA(214)

Time series and econometric forecast

modeling.

Risk Signature

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2011

Q4

2012

Q2

2012

Q4

2013

Q2

2013

Q4

2014

Q2

2014

Q4

2015

Q2

2015

Q4

2016

Q2

2016

Q4

2017

Q2

2017

Q4

2018

Q2

2018

Q4

2019

Q2

2019

Q4

2020

Q2

2020

Q4

2021

Q2

2021

Q4

2022

Q2

2022

Q4

18_F_ARIMA(114)

18_F_LOG_ARIMA(112)

18_F_LOG_ARIMA(214)

12_F_ARIMA(214)12_F_LOG_ARIMA(110)

6_F_LOG_ARIMA(211)6_F_LOG_ARIMA(114)_GARCH(01)



� Survey sample design… 280 cell design to yield representative sample of US business sites with overall

1.3% sampling error.


Data Modeling

� Data Integration… CensusDept.

ClientCustomer orMarketingDatabase

CommerceDept.

10K Reports

IndustryAnalystReports

Gov’tAgencyBudgetReports

Private 3rd

Party Data

…to eliminate database whitespace or append a new field, such as sales revenue or IT spend, to a particular business site or

customer.

BureauLaborStats

Factors(e.g. $/employee)


2008

Total Spend (m) Accounts Spend per Account

Agriculture 9,744$ 703,477 13,852$

Education 9,993$ 135,989 73,485$

Education Other 21,469$ 175,066 122,636$

F-I-RE 68,695$ 1,527,733 44,966$

Health Services 21,173$ 932,780 22,698$

Health Services Other 7,429$ 26,686 278,398$

Manufacturing 31,836$ 803,147 39,639$

Manufacturing Other 3,391$ 34,903 97,154$

Mining/Construction 23,622$ 1,509,277 15,651$

Public Administration 24,263$ 293,066 82,790$

Retail 58,709$ 2,965,485 19,797$

Services Other 129,777$ 1,480,184 87,676$

Services-Personal 78,797$ 4,366,790 18,045$

Transportation/Telecom 25,721$ 737,019 34,899$

Wholesale 32,207$ 866,932 37,151$

Total 546,828$ 16,558,534 33,024$

Market Potential

2008

Market Size (m)

Client Bookings

(m) Client Share

Agriculture 9,744$ 75$ 0.8%

Education 9,993$ 250$ 2.5%

Education Other 21,469$ 200$ 0.9%

F-I-RE 68,695$ 6,800$ 9.9%

Health Services 21,173$ 3,000$ 14.2%

Health Services Other 7,429$ 575$ 7.7%

Manufacturing 31,836$ 1,200$ 3.8%

Manufacturing Other 3,391$ 250$ 7.4%

Mining/Construction 23,622$ 2,900$ 12.3%

Public Administration 24,263$ 12,000$ 49.5%

Retail 58,709$ 5,000$ 8.5%

Services Other 129,777$ 10,000$ 7.7%

Services-Personal 78,797$ 8,000$ 10.2%

Transportation/Telecom 25,721$ 11,500$ 44.7%

Wholesale 32,207$ 2,750$ 8.5%

Total 546,828$ 64,500$ 11.8%

Data Modeling

� Market Sizing…

Accounts Value (m) Value per Account

F-I-RE 3,636 23,503$ 6,464,684$

Transportation/Telecom 2,360 10,375$ 4,395,409$

Services Other 2,679 3,435$ 1,282,042$

Education 5,605 6,388$ 1,139,616$

Health Services Other 6,042 6,500$ 1,075,787$

Manufacturing Other 2,173 1,746$ 803,341$

Public Administration 5,956 3,879$ 651,282$

Manufacturing 36,961 13,051$ 353,097$

Health Services 10,735 2,742$ 255,387$

Wholesale 6,654 1,546$ 232,377$

Mining/Construction 6,714 1,362$ 202,822$

Education Other 16,407 2,713$ 165,362$

Services-Personal 19,466 2,569$ 131,958$

Agriculture 1,571 153$ 97,141$

Retail 33,408 627$ 18,758$

Total 160,369 80,588$ 502,515$

Gap

Market size + Customer Sales => Market Gap (how many $ left on the table)


Data Modeling

� Market Simulation… Excel based models allowing user to conduct “what if”analyses by changing values

of model parameters.


Data Modeling

� Data Visualization…Interactive Tableau dashboards…see



Data ModelingSegmentation and prioritization solution driven by:

* Clients’ customer data* 3rd party enrichment

data* KDD Analytics

Three components:* MarketPoint Profile =>

“What”?* MarketPoint Opportunity =>

“Where”?* MarketPoint Prospect =>

“Who”?

Deliverables* Static and interactive

dashboards/Excel workbooks* Scored and ranked prospecting

lists

� KDD MarketPoint…

Segmentation and prioritization solution driven by:

* Clients’ customer data* 3rd party enrichment data* KDD Analytics

Three components:* MP Profile => “What”?* MP Opportunity => “Where”?* MP Prospect => “Who”?

Deliverables* Static and interactive

dashboards/Excel workbooks* Scored and ranked prospecting

lists

See www.kddanalytics.com.


Contact Info

� Let us know how we can help you:

[email protected]
