Jean-Raphael ChaponnièreMarc Lautier
Export catching-up in the Mediterranean Countries
The weakness : The Textile-Clothing industrie in the MC
X % manuf
Employment % manuf
X-M/ PIB
Morocco 49% 32% 2.7%
Tunisia 52% 32% 5.4%
Egypt 35% 23% 0.5%
Syria 30% 25%
Turkey 25% 25% 4.3%
The problem : Chinese Competition
k kjkik
jk
k
ik
ij
EE
EECos
22 *
* Chinese potential competition in the Textiles-Clothing Ind.
To compare export structures of countries « i » and « j », we use their export vectors (structures) Eik et Ejk (k=1,...,n ). The “ distance ” between these vectors (structures) is given by the cosinus of their angle; varying from 0 (absolute difference) à 1 (absolute similitude).
2 Chinese export structures are calculated:
Direct (China) : Structure of EU Import; with quota
Undirect (Chine *) : structure of Japan Imports; quota-free
0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1
Turquie
Tunisie
Maroc
Egypte
Syrie
Chine *
Chine
Textiles-Clothing Export Structures calculated for 236 products.
The solution : Increase the Quality of Manufacturing Exports
How to measure the « quality » of an export structure ?
1) ECU : The indicator of Export Catching-Up
2) Results
3) Analysis of manufacturing export niches
1) ECU : Method
The idea : A manufacturing export is more advanced the higher the average income of its exporter.
ECU measures the gap between the overall quality of a country’s exports and the quality level of the most advanced country.
ECU is calculated in three steps : (i) We calculate a product quality index for each product
as the weighted average of the GDP per capita of the exporting countries.
We term it GDPproduct i :
GDPproduct i = Σ (GDP per capita country j * Xij/Xiw)
(With Xij, country “j” exports of product “i”, and Xiw the total (world)
exports of product “i”.)
(ii) We computes a ECU value for each country “j” :
ECUj value = Σ (GDPproduct i * Xij/Xtj)
(With Xtj the total exports of country “j”.)
(iii) We obtain ECU country j by calculating an index that ranks each country between 0 and 1 :
ECU country j = [ECUj value – Min ECU value] / [Max ECU value – Min ECU value]
(With “Min ECU value” as the lowest level of ECU value in the world, and “Max ECU value” as the highest.)
Implications
ECU is an indicator of the “quality” gap between two countries export structures (The larger the gap with the leading country, the more backward the export structure)
In the long run, ECU changes measures the speed of the catching up process of the country’s exports.
-
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
0,70
0,80
0,90
1,00
1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998
Mexique
Argentine
Brésil
Chili
2) Results
-
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
0,70
0,80
1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
NPI 1
NPI 2
Chine
Inde
-
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
0,70
0,80
0,90
1,00
1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998
Egypte
Israël
Maroc
Tunisie
Turquie
NPI 2
Regional trends
-
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1 967 1 970 1 973 1 976 1 979 1 982 1 985 1 988 1 991 1 994 1 997 2 000 2 003
Asie
PM
PM hor Turquie
AL
Chine
IRX
South-Korea
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
1967
1988
2003
2000
ECU
Manuf Export / GDP
G6 : South-Korea, Export intensity and Exports Quality
0,0
0,1
0,1
0,2
0,2
0,3
0,3
0,4
0,4
0,5
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
2003
1967
1999
IRX
X manuf /PIB
« Quantity » and « Quality » of Exports diverge in the MC
NICs 2 Tunisia
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
IRX
X manuf /PIB
3) Share of Export Niches in Manufacturing exports
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Algérie
Egypte
Israël
Jordanie
Maroc
Syrie
Tunisie
Turquie
2003
1994
Exports Niches Dynamic
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150%
Egypte
Maroc
Tunisie
Turquie
Nouvelles niches Renforcementdisparus et diminués
Niches Export Growth :
• Consolidation of the existing niches, no creation of new niches.
• Concentrated on:
- a limited number of products (50% from 2 products in Morocco, from 5 products in
Tunisia).
- The UE market.
Where the demand is not dynamic
No change No (trade) future !
• Export growth, but low quality of exports
• No process of export diversification
• Increase of Asian Competition in the EU