• How measure climate change in Local condition?• How should be prepared the communities for face to

Climate Change?• Local climate observation integrated to development• Weaknesses community perception of climate

change, social pressures and migration like to indirect effect to climate change.

• Local practices community perspectives and local knowledge climate risk.

• Conclusions

How measure climate change in Local condition?

• Nature observation for understand climate change for communities indigenes.

• Understand relationship between climate, productive systems and ecosystems.

• Historical memory about climate event and their impacts in livelihood.

• Change in floristic composition and wildlife.

Bioindicadores• If Thola (Parastrephia lepidophilla)

flowers early it tells first seeding begin; if it does not Flower The community don’t have first seeding.

• If it has fruit between September and October, They have good production.

• If fruit not finish their mature They have frozen or/and drought.

BIOINDICATOR

• Kariwa When flower between in October – November is meaning that is time a seeding, If it early flower there are seeding early too.

• When flower abundance and yellow is time of seeding for Good production.

• When fox finish their howl is advertence there are not good production.

• But if it not finish their howl it is stopped by stun between their howl adverting the community will have a good production.

• When fox will make their burrow in low land near the lake This meaning that not has a lot of rainfall.

Leke leke

Fox

Wild animals observations

• When this birth make a nestle in high place meaning which a lot of rainfall; But if make in lowland is sure has drought .

• When has eggs put in high point and more big and uniform meaning which better potatoes production; but when it has small point and in less density there will less production.

Pilot experience in two regions of Bolivia like and select by CBA projects.

• Two regions are mountains areas.• Both regions has different particularities in

water supply.• Theses regions has different responses of

communities.• They have high property level.• Also theses regions have problems under actual

condition and additional impact to climate changes which increasing their more properly

Landscape /EcosystemsForest /brush

Naturalgrassland

Water Resource

Soil

Biodiversity

Productive systems

Livelihoods

Familiar incoming

Agriculture

Livestoock

Others

Food security

Energy

Market

Climate change

Climate variability

Education

Health

Cultura

Vulnerability and perceptions to climate change by communities

a) Productive systems are highly dependent on climatic conditions.

b) Lack of access to technologyc) Reliant on subsistence agricultural production.d) Inter-annual and inter-decadal variability has immediate

impact on agriculture activities.e) To long term reduce opportunities in Economic Active

Population and these leave their communities.

Climate Geological Enviroment , Fires, Social

ENSO Multivariate Index with number of emergency declaration

Increased frequency and intensity of extreme events associated with climate variability

Floods, hailstorms, and Floods, hailstorms, and others event produce others event produce serious road and settlement serious road and settlement infrastructure damage infrastructure damage

a) Family incomeb) Technology accessc) Contribution of agricultural production to GDPd) Retreating glaciers and reduction of streamflows.e) Recurrent drought in micro-regions and disturbances in

in animals, plants, and ecosystemsf) Emergence of new pests and diseases in crops and

livestock.g) Increasing ecosystem vulnerability – forest fires, etc.

Proxy indicators – ecological, microclimatic changes that are readily apparent to communities

Perspectives and Local Knowledge in Climate Risk Assessment

• To assess climate change risk is not necessary only to know the behavior of climatic parameters

• One must understand the relationship of the parameter with livelihood and ecological variables that are important to the community

• Social perceptions are evaluated in participative meeting when all participant interchanges experiences – a form of social research.

Food Insecurity related with extreme climate events, temperature increase and others

• Pest and Diseases in Crop Pest and Diseases in Crop

Gorgojo de los AndesPolilla de la papa

Droughts

Hail storms

Frost

Tizón Tardío de la papa

Competition for final destination of food production

• Changes in ecosystem Changes in ecosystem configurationconfiguration

• Recurrent droughts in low lands Recurrent droughts in low lands and unusual areas of Amazoniaand unusual areas of Amazonia

Lost of BiodiversityLost of Biodiversity

Forest degradationForest degradation

TOP DOWNTOP DOWNPROCESSPROCESS

BOTTON UPBOTTON UPPROCESSPROCESS

NATIONAL NATIONAL ADAPTATION ADAPTATION MECHANISMMECHANISM(SECTORIAL) (SECTORIAL)

NATIONAL NATIONAL ADAPTATION ADAPTATION MECHANISMMECHANISM(SECTORIAL) (SECTORIAL)

COUNTIES PILOT COUNTIES PILOT ADAPTATIONADAPTATION

PROJECTSPROJECTS

COUNTIES PILOT COUNTIES PILOT ADAPTATIONADAPTATION

PROJECTSPROJECTS

Nacional

Departamental

Municipal

SaludG

estió

n de

Ries

gos

Organizaciones

de base

PNDGood to living

CBA ProjectContributing to

Adaptation measure implementation

CLIMATE CHANGE INCLUDED IN NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE INCLUDED IN NATIONAL

DEVELOPMENT PLANDEVELOPMENT PLAN

ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES POLICIES

REDUCTION OF GRENHOUSE GASES AND CARBON REDUCTION OF GRENHOUSE GASES AND CARBON SECUESTRATIONSECUESTRATION

Programa de Certificación de reducción de emisiones, secuestro y conservación.

Programa Nacional de Secuestro de Carbono.

Programa de Cambios de Matriz Energética y eficiencia energética para la Reducción de emisiones de GEI.

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

Programa de prevención de desastres en sectores vulnerables.

Programa de adaptación de sistemas de subsistencia vulnerables. Recursos Hídricos; recursos Energéticos; soberanía alimentaria.

Programas de Educación.

National Climate Change Adaptation Mechanism

Sectorial Programs

Scientific research

Strategic targests

Food SecurityWater Resources

Education, Capacitation, and public awareness

Health

Adaptation measurements Implementación

Ecosystem

CountiesPrefecturas ONGs Universitys Civil Society, comunnities organization

Human Settlement and risk Management

Anthropological aspects and ancient knowledge

Cros

s cu

tting

Pro

gram

s

Strategies Strategic liason

Legal Framework

Help sectorial iniciatives

Mainstreaming climate change

Cros

s cu

tting

Pro

gram

s

ADAPTATION PROCESSADAPTATION PROCESS

Local,Sectorial and National Planning

Implementation

Progress measurement and experiences learning

Disaster Recuperation

Emergency answers

Protection and evacuation

Hazards

DesastreDISASTER

DDEEVVEELLOOPPMMEENNTT

Science

Methods

Policies and decisions

Process

Community Participation

VULNERABILITY ASSESMENT

Strategies and Measurements Implementation

ADAPTACION

Fase I Fase II

POLICIES BUILDING

• BUILDING RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE LIVILIHOOD IMPACTS

Vulnerability Assessment for extreme events impacts and climate change sensitive diseases

Integrate focus Early warning systems development Building Capacities Public awareness raising

Develop adaptive capacity Maistreaming Increase adaptive capacity for long term Building structural scenarios Adjust policy and implmentation in national strategies. Development of concrete adaptation measures – intersectoral and multi-level

Evaluate progress and learn from experience Technological Innovation Emphasize the relationship between the biosphere and the prosperous

development of society

Present and future vulnerability identification

Present and future vulnerability identification

Proactive Behavior of rural comunity

Proactive Behavior of rural comunity

MainstreamingMainstreaming

Understand climate trend for preparing

response

Understand climate trend for preparing

response

DENGUE

SEGUNDO FACTOR DEL INDICE CLIMATICO , EL MAS RELACIONADO CON LA PRECIPITACION

VA

LOR

ES

ES

TA

ND

AR

IZA

DO

S

COMPORTAMIENTO DEL DENGUE CON RESPECTO AL SEGUNDO FACTOR DEL INDICE

CLIMATICO - YACUIBA

REZAGOS EN QUE LA LLUVIA AFECTA EL COMPORTAMIENTO DEL DENGUE. APROX. 8 SEMANAS

SEMANAS EPIDEMIOLOGICAS

CONCLUSIONES

1. Capitalizar el conocimientos ancestrales de las comunidades, es muy importante.

2. Explicar a partir de la ciencia los fenómenos observados en naturaleza.

3. Integrar a la toma de decisiones de la comunidad e incidir en políticas públicas a partir de la experiencia local.

4. Establecer un dialogo entre el saber local y los resultados de la ciencia.

5. Todo integrado a la toma de decisiones podrá garantizar la sostenibilidad