1 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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MISSION STATEMENT: “To Foster the Growth of Demand Planning,
Forecas9ng, S&OP, and the Careers of those in the Field”
2 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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• Consumers are less loyal • Short life-‐cycle products • Highly promoted products • Greater channels of distribu:on • Greater number of new products • Greater number of SKU’s (Expanding product porBolio)
• Longer lead :mes to produce goods • Greater compe::on
Today’s Challenges & Risks
3 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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Agenda For Today
4 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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• How the S&OP process works • What types of obstacles you’re likely to face with
S&OP and how to overcome them • What benefits companies have derived by
implemen:ng the S&OP process • Benchmarking Research • About the IBF and Cer:fica:on
Agenda For Today
5 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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BENCHMARKING RESEARCH
6 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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Do you have an S&OP process in place?
7 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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Does Conflict of Interest Get in the Way of Improving Planning Performance?
31%
69%
8 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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Support of TOP MANAGEMENT for S&OP?
9 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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How do you measure S&OP Effec3veness?
21%
32%
54%
57%
53%
8%
10 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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Does your company follow a one set of numbers forecast philosophy?
11 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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How o`en do you hold forecast consensus mee3ngs?
12 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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Which type of data does your company use most in preparing forecasts?
31%
71%
37%
7%
13 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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Where does the forecas3ng func3on reside within your company?
10%
19%
9%
9%
65%
6%
6%
14 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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15 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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Forecas3ng Salaries – All Industries
16 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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Forecas3ng Salaries – Academic Backgrounds
17 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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Forecas3ng Salaries – Size of Companies
18 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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Forecas3ng Salaries – So`ware Used
19 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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What IBF Does
20 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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What IBF Does
• Benchmarking Research • Journal of Business Forecasting (JBF) • Global Events & Chapters • Educational Books • Membership • Certification • Corporate Training • Assessments
21 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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22 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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23 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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24 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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ADVANCING WITH IBF
25 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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IBF CERTIFICATION VIDEO
Please watch this youtube video by the Director of Demand Planning from Estee Lauder:
hSp://youtu.be/n49R-‐8iE40c
26 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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IBF CERTIFICATION
27 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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Companies with IBF Certification (Partial List) Abbott Acuity Brands Lighting ADC Telecommunications Alberto Culver Alcatel-Lucent American Italian Pasta Company American Red Cross American Textile Company Amway Anderson Windows Andrew Corporation Anteon Corp AOL AstraZeneca Aveda Aventis Pharmaceuticals Baker Oil Tools Barnes Distribution BASF Corp Baxter Healthcare Bayer Best Buy Biomarin Black & Decker British Gypsum Brown Forman Capital One Carhartt Cartech Caterpillar Celgene Char-broil Chemtura Chevron Texaco Cisco Systems Cleco, Inc. CNH Global Con Edison Conros Corporation Continental Tire
Cooper Lighting Cordis Corning Cable Systems Coty Inc. Cummins Day Spring Cards Dealer Tire Delta Delta Faucet Deluxe Corporation Depuy Orthopaedics DePuy Spine Discover Financial Disney Dorel Juvenile Group Dorman Products Dow Corning Dupont E & J Gallo Winery Canada EAS East Penn Manufacturing Eaton Filtration GmbH Edmund Optics Eircom Elkay EMD Chemicals Emerson Process Emirates Telecommunication Cooperation Emyco ESAB FedEx Fisher Scientific Fruit of the Loom Fuji Photo Film USA Gap GE General Mills Georgia Pacific GlaxoSmithKline Globe Electric
Goodyear Graco Children's Products Grundfos Pump Corp. Hanes Brands Heineken Heinz Hewlett Packard Hollister Hypro Pumps Infosys Technologies Ltd Intuit Invitrogen Ipex Inc. John Deere Johnson & Johnson Juno Lighting Group Lafarge North America Land O'Lakes Lifescan Lilly Logitech MAC Manhattan Toy Maple Leaf Foods McCormick Mead Johnson Melaleuca Mepha Ltd. Merrill Lynch Michelin Microsoft Mine Safety Appliances Monster Cable Products Motorola Inc Nature's Path Foods Neiman Marcus Nestle Netjets Nordstrom Norfolk Southern Corporation
Noveon Novozymes Nuskin Oberto Ogio, Intl. ON Semiconductor Corp. OnStar Oracle Corporation Panasonic Pepsico Pfizer, Inc. Pharmavite Philip Morris Prevost Parts Primus Canada Procter & Gamble Quantum Corporation Rand McNally Research In Motion Revlon Rich-Sea Pak Corp Roche Diagnostics Rubbermaid Sanford Sappi Fine Paper Sara Lee Sartomer Satyam Saudi Aramco SBC Communications SC Johnson SCA Tissue Scholastic Book Fairs Scunci International Sealed Air Sears Shire Pharmaceuticals Inc Sigma Aldrich Smith & Nephew
Sony Spring Industries Standard Textile, Inc. Sun Chemical Syngenta SYSCO Food Systems TastyKake Tektronix Tennant Company Manufacturing Teva Pharmaceuticals Texas A&M University The Boeing Company The Hartz Mountain Corp The Scotts Company The Toro Company Thermatru Timberland T-Mobile Turtle Wax, Inc. Tyson Foods Under Armour Unilever UnitedHealthcare University of Notre Dame USAA USG Victoria's Secret Stores Vi-Jon Laboratories Wal-Mart Stores Walt Disney World Welch's Whirlpool Woodward World Kitchen Wrigley Wyeth Pharmaceuticals Xcel Energy Yokohama Tire Zytec
28 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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IBF Cer3fica3on
The IBF is a pioneer in developing a Demand Planning, Forecas:ng, and S&OP Cer:fica:on program that helps boost creden:als, as well as gives management greater confidence in its people. The IBF offers two levels of cer:fica:on:
1. Cer3fied Professional Forecaster (CPF®) 2. Advanced Cer3fied Professional Forecaster (ACPF®)
29 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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IBF CPF Exam Content Summary Exam 1
– Role of Forecas:ng & Planning in Decision Making – Demand Planning (Demand Sensing, Shaping, & Crea:ng) – Forecas:ng & Planning Process – Consump:on (POS Data) Based Forecas:ng & Planning – Consensus Forecas:ng & Planning – Sales & Opera:ons Planning (S&OP) Process – Collabora:ve, Planning, Forecas:ng, & Replenishment (CPFR)
Exam 2
– Data Analysis & Treatment – Fundamentals of Models & Modeling – Types of Models – Time Series Models – Model Selec:on – Metrics: Measuring Forecast Error and Performance
Exam 3
– Forecast Repor:ng & Presenta:on – Forecast Communica:on – Winning Support and Confidence of Management – Gaining Buy-‐in from Stakeholders – New Product Forecas:ng
30 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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CPF Exams
• 3 Exams –100 to 150 ques:ons • Exams Taken Individually – Objec:ve Tests, Mul:ple Choice • 2 Hours per Exam • CPF is earned when 70% or higher is scored for each exam
individually
31 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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IBF ACPF Exam Content Summary Exam 4
– Regression/ Cause & Effect Models – Types of Regression Models – Assump:ons of a Simple Regression Model – Steps to Build a Regression Model – Diagnos:c Tools for Assessing Regression Models – Development and Applica:on of Dummy Variables in Mul:ple Regression – Improving a Mul:ple Regression Model – ARIMA/Box-‐Jenkins Modeling – Assump:ons of ARIMA Modeling – ARIMA Models vs. Regression Models – Types of ARIMA Models – Steps to Build an ARIMA Model – Improving ARIMA Models
Exam 5 – Forecas:ng & Planning Technology – Forecas:ng Package vs. Forecas:ng System – Selec:ng a Forecas:ng Package – Technology Capabili:es – Scalability – Forecas:ng System Implementa:on – Worst Prac:ces in Forecas:ng & Demand Planning
32 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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ACPF Exams
• 2 Exams • Exams Taken Individually – Objec:ve Tests (Mul:ple
Choice) • 2 Hours per Exam • Must be CPF • ACPF is earned when 70% or higher is scored for each exam
individually
33 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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Study Materials Provided & Prepara3on
• Study Materials: CPF & ACPF – Fundamentals of Demand Planning & Forecas:ng Book (inclusive
of glossary)
• Prepara:on – IBF Tutorials/ Forecas:ng Academy – IBF Sta:s:cal Workshops – IBF In-‐House Seminars – IBF Online Training – IBF Cer:fica:on Review Course – Professional Experience
34 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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35 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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36 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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Cer3fica3on Period & Renewal Requirements
• Ini:al Cer:fica:on Period = 4 Years • Cer:fica:on Renewals Every 4 Years • Con:nuing Educa:on Points for Renewal without
Reexamina:on – CPF: 40 CE Points for Renewal – ACPF: 50 CE Points for Renewal
• Candidate can also choose to re-‐take exams to renew cer:fica:on
37 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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Re-‐Cer3fica3on ACTIVITY* POINTS EARNED Attend an IBF Conference/ Seminar/ Workshop/ Boot Camp 10 pts Attend IBF's In-House Training 5 pts IBF Membership per year 5 pts IBF Online education per course 3 pts Attend another forecasting & planning related conference, 1.5 days+ (Supply Chain, Analytics, Planning, etc.)
5 pts
Serve on an IBF Board or Committee 5 pts. per year of service Publish original research on forecasting & planning 10 pts per publication Publish an article or blog on forecasting & planning 5 pts. per article published Speak at a forecasting & planning conference 5 pts per presentation Speak for a forecasting & planning webinar 5 pts per presentation Be an IBF Ambassador or Volunteer 5 pts per engagement Successful completion of an academic course in forecasting & planning
3 pts per credit hour
IBF Chapter Meeting 3 pts IBF Webinar 2 pts
*One can propose other ac:vi:es that are “external” to the organiza:on that proves staying abreast with forecas:ng & planning
38 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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IBF Awards -‐ 2013 Winners
Charles W. Chase, Jr. (pictured right) Chief Industry Consultant Demand Solu3ons SAS Ins3tute
Alan Milliken (pictured le`) Senior Manager -‐ Supply Chain Educa3on BASF Corpora3on
39 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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IBF Dubai (pictured right)
IBF Sconsdale (pictured Le`)
IBF Event Photo’s
40 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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Visit the IBF’s Website: www.ibf.org
Phone: +1.516.504.7576 Email: [email protected]
Thank You -‐ Get Social with IBF
LinkedIn: hnp://bit.ly/4p52bV Twiner: hnp://twiner.com/DemandPlanning Facebook: hnp://facebook.com/DemandPlanning IBF Blog: hnp://demand-‐planning.com Google+: hnps://plus.google.com/102918104859511378565/
Anish Jain Email: [email protected] Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/in/anishkjain/
41 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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IBF BOARD OF ADVISORS
42 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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IBF Board of Advisors John Gallucci Senior Director of Planning Pinnacle Foods Group Curtis Brewer, CPF Head of Consumer Forecasting Bayer Cropscience Mark Covas Senior Director of Demand Planning Georgia-Pacific Alan Milliken, CPF Global Business Process Education Manager BASF Corporation
Dr. Larry Lapide Research Affiliate MIT Steve Tribou VP of Account Planning Carter’s/Oshkosh Richard Herrin, CPF Director of Supply Chain Georgia Gulf Corporation/ Axiall Jay Nearnberg Senior Director Global Demand Planning Novartis
43 Fostering Demand Planning, Forecas3ng, S&OP for 30+ Years!
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IBF Board of Advisors (Con3nued)
Dr. Barry Keating Professor University of Notre Dame
Max Colao Executive Director – New Products Marketing AMGEN Dr. Alex Safavi Director of Forecasting Rockwell Collins
Grant Hoffman, CPF Vice President of Supply Chain Motorola Mobility/ Google
Randy Wilp Leader of Global Commercial Forecasting Merck & Co., Inc.
Dr. Chaman L. Jain Chief Editor, Journal of Business
Forecasting (JBF) Professor, St. John’s University
(New York)
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