ISS 2009ISS 2009

Supporting the CTBT Radionuclide Monitoring System at the Canadian Meteorological CentreSupporting the CTBT Radionuclide Monitoring System at the Canadian Meteorological CentreSupporting the CTBT Radionuclide Monitoring System at the Canadian Meteorological Centrepp g g y gRé l D’A Nil Ek Ri h d H R é S k C li Z RSMC M t é l C di M t l i l C t D l Q éb C dRéal D’Amours, Nils Ek, Richard Hogue, René Servranckx, Calin Zaganescu, RSMC Montréal, Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, Québec, CanadaRéal D Amours, Nils Ek, Richard Hogue, René Servranckx, Calin Zaganescu, RSMC Montréal, Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, Québec, Canada

E i t l E R S ti Role of Atmospheric Transport Modeling (ATM) in CTBT Verification DPRK Nuclear Test 9 October 2006:Environmental Emergency Response Section Role of Atmospheric Transport Modeling (ATM) in CTBT Verification DPRK Nuclear Test - 9 October 2006:g y pC di M t l i l C t (E i t C d )

p p gI t t d t ti l f 15 d ( lid 24 O t b 2006)Canadian Meteorological Centre (Environment Canada)

A li i f f h i N i l W h P di i (NWP) h lIntegrated concentration values for 15 days (valid 24 October 2006) g ( )

• Application of state-of-the-science Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) technology pp ( ) gyleading to the simulation of the Earth SystemO ti l R d R&D i At h i T t d Di i M d li leading to the simulation of the Earth System Operational Response and R&D in Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modeling

• ATM-Backtracking (and forward tracking)p p p p p g

• ATM-Backtracking (and forward tracking)• Close coupling with the Treaty’s IMS-Radionuclide Technology• 24/7 Operational response activities: Close coupling with the Treaty s IMS Radionuclide Technology/7 Ope o espo se c v es:• Operational system at PTS with full 24-7 support from WMO RSMCsOperational system at PTS with full 24 7 support from WMO RSMCs

• Nuclear and radiological transport and dispersion• Nuclear and radiological transport and dispersion

ATM F d d b k d d liATM: Forward and backward modeling Release site(RSMC M t l t t CTBT t t ti l l FNEP) ATM: Forward and backward modeling Release site(RSMC Montreal, support to CTBT, support to national plan – FNEP)( , pp , pp p )

AtmosphereForward• Volcanic ash transport and dispersion (VAAC Montreal) AtmosphereForwardVolcanic ash transport and dispersion (VAAC Montreal)

Chemical• Chemical

Known or hypothetical D t tiKnown or hypothetical Detection• R&D in atmospheric transport and dispersion issuesSource

R&D in atmospheric transport and dispersion issuesSource

Yellowknife noble gas• Projects on improving capabilities to track hazardous material related to CBRN incidents e ow e ob e g smonitoring station133

• Projects on improving capabilities to track hazardous material related to CBRN incidentsAt h

monitoring stationWere there other possible sources of 133Xe?Atmosphere Were there other possible sources of Xe?C bili i d ll h d di i i

p• Capabilities towards all-hazards dispersion issues :p p

chemical biological natural hazards forest fires support to spills in water etc I f i b k dchemical, biological, natural hazards, forest fires, support to spills in water, etc. Importance of assessing backgroundp g g

Possible Detection i i f RN f iPossible DetectionB k d

emissions of RN from various sources .Source Areas BackwardSource Areas Backward

F 133X th t i t tFor 133Xe, the most important Why is ATM particularly important for the Radionuclide Technology?Why is ATM particularly important for the Radionuclide Technology?

background source is Chalk River’sI th f t h l i (SHI) it i t i htf d t l t th f t ith f i l li it d

Chalk River, background source is Chalk River s – In the waveform technologies (SHI) it is a straightforward process to geo-locate the source of events with fairly limited ? Medical isotopeg ( ) g p g y

uncertainties by generalised triangulation ? Medical isotope Production facility medical isotope production facility inuncertainties by generalised triangulation. Production facility medical isotope production facility in

I t t di lid (RN) i l i h tl diffi lt t i t ith li it d i d t th i Ontario Canada– In contrast radionuclide (RN) signals are inherently more difficult to associate with a limited region due to the ever moving Ontario, Canada( ) g y g gmedium that carries the signals: the earth’s atmospheremedium that carries the signals: the earth s atmosphere

Canadian radionuclide detection network– Geo-location of RN signals is, however, vital for fusing signals from all technologies, and therefore advanced Canadian radionuclide detection networkf g , , f f g g f g , fAt h i T t M d lli (ATM) i tili d i d t l t RN t t th t t ibl ith h t

X 133 t Y ll k if (A 2003 O t 2006)Atmospheric Transport Modelling (ATM) is utilised in order to relate RN measurements to the extent possible with what

Xenon-133 at Yellowknife (Aug. 2003 – Oct.2006)we call Field of Regards and Possible Source Regions Xenon 133 at Yellowknife (Aug. 2003 Oct.2006)h i f b k db k d

we call Field of Regards and Possible Source RegionsThe importance of background assessmentbackground assessmentThe importance of background assessmentbackground assessment…

The WMO-RSMC ATM-backtracking Response Support to The WMO-RSMC ATM-backtracking Response Support to 5]

CTBTO’s PTS m3 ]

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mBqWMO RSMCs for Emergency

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[mWMO RSMCs for Emergency

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atioBackwards mode ATM

ntraBackwards mode ATM

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cenAn ATM is run in backwards mode to reveal the origin of air that arrives at CTBTO radionuclide detection 2

nc

An ATM is run in backwards mode to reveal the origin of air that arrives at CTBTO radionuclide detection RSMC : Regional Specialized Meteorological Center

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sites. The resulting pseudo-concentrations are called Source Receptor Sensitivities (SRS).RSMC : Regional Specialized Meteorological Center

RSMC M t é l N1ty csites. The resulting pseudo concentrations are called Source Receptor Sensitivities (SRS). RSMC - Montréal N1

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T th ith th t f th it SRS b d t i f b bl

ActiTogether with the measurements from the sites, SRS can be used to infer probable sources.VI IIResponse Activities

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AVI IIBeijing,

Response Activities• 1 of 8 WMO RSMCs supporting the WMO 0

IV ExeterBeijing,Obninsk and

1 of 8 WMO RSMCs supporting the WMO(W ld M l i l O i i ) Aug-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Feb-05 Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06

Exeter and

Obninsk and Tokyo(World Meteorological Organization) g g g g

MontréalandToulous

Tokyo( g g )Collection date From Health Canada’s Radiation Protection Bureau (RPB)and Washington

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• Chairmanship of WMO Nuclear Emergency III VM lbI

• Chairmanship of WMO Nuclear Emergency MelbourneIResponse Activity Group

The attribution of any single peak depends critically upon the prevailing meteorological conditionsResponse Activity Group

The attribution of any single peak depends critically upon the prevailing meteorological conditionsAll peaks prior to 21 Oct 2006 were consistent with emissions from a known facility

WMO (World Meteorological Organization):All peaks prior to 21 Oct. 2006 were consistent with emissions from a known facility

WMO (World Meteorological Organization):

Scientific programmes and systems for Weather, Climate, F d L i d li f 2009 DPRKScientific programmes and systems for Weather, Climate, W t (WMO C ) Forward Lagrangian modeling of 2009 DPRK caseWater (WMO Congress) Forward Lagrangian modeling of 2009 DPRK case

11 UTC 16 Sept 11 UTC 13 Sept 11 UTC 10 Sept 11 UTC 07 SeptSt John’s

11 UTC 16 Sept 11 UTC 13 Sept 11 UTC 10 Sept 11 UTC 07 SeptSt. John s

Operational infrastructure for WMO Members in Weather Modeled emission started at 01 UTC 25 May 2009, with 12-hour release of 1E+15 Bq of 133Xe.The image sequence shows SRS resulting from an inverse global Lagrangian ATM run at CMC In this case theOperational infrastructure for WMO Members in Weather i d i h ld h h

Modeled emission started at 01 UTC 25 May 2009, with 12 hour release of 1E 15 Bq of Xe.The image sequence shows SRS resulting from an inverse global Lagrangian ATM run at CMC. In this case, the Forecasting and Services – The World Weather Watch

l i l fi ld k f l b l f d ladjoint source is the radionuclide detection station at St John’s Newfoundland Canada The collection stop time wasgSystem (WMO Commission for Basic System) Meteorological fields were taken from CMC global forecast model.adjoint source is the radionuclide detection station at St. John s, Newfoundland, Canada. The collection stop time was

19 UTC 19 S t 2008System (WMO Commission for Basic System) e eo o og ca e ds we e a e o C C g oba o ecas ode .19 UTC 19 Sept 2008.pResults such as these are then provided to PTS to support their assessment of possible source locations when

Global Data-Processing and forecasting System (GDPFS)Results such as these are then provided to PTS to support their assessment of possible source locations when

i i RN t d t IMS t tiGlobal Data Processing and forecasting System (GDPFS), i l di ti l t h i t t d li

suspicious RN measurements are made at IMS stations.including operational atmospheric transport modeling

pg p p p g

(ATM)(ATM)

History of CTBTO – WMO CooperationHistory of CTBTO – WMO Cooperation1990’ WMO P i i (2003 2005 CTBTO WMO E 2005 SPT1 LT 2007)1990’s: WMO Participants (2003, 2005 CTBTO-WMO Exp. 2005 SPT1, LT 2007)

C f Di t ( id 1990’ )• Conference on Disarmament (mid-1990’s)( )E l h d l t k i l di WMO i IMS R di lid t k WMO: GDPFS Centres, involved in • Early exchanges, and exploratory work, including WMO in IMS – Radionuclide network WMO: GDPFS Centres, involved in

Emergency Response Activitiesdesign and performance assessment (mid- to late 1990’s)

Emergency Response Activitiesdesign and performance assessment (mid to late 1990 s)

RSMCs: BeijingMembers of the Canadian National Authority to the CTBT : 2000’ss j g

ExeterMembers of the Canadian National Authority to the CTBT : 2000 s

b ll ( )ExeterM lb• Umbrella Agreement (2003) Melbourne• Health Canada’s Radiation Protection Bureau U g ( )

“Th W F d” j i i ATM l i i i d i i (2003) MontrealHealth Canada s Radiation Protection Bureau

• “The Way Forward” joint meeting ATM source location estimation and experimentation (2003) Obninsky j g p ( )E i t 2003 2005 2007

ObninskT k

• Natural Resources Canada’s Geological Survey of Canada • Experiments: 2003, 2005, 2007 TokyoNatural Resources Canada s Geological Survey of Canada p

• Weather forecasting support to OSI field experiment (Kazakhstan) Toulouse• Weather forecasting support to OSI field experiment (Kazakhstan) Toulouse

Washington• Environment Canada’s Environmental Emergency Response Section • CTBTO WMO adopt Joint ATM backtracking response procedures (2007) and official

Washington00 UTC 27 May 00 UTC 29 May 00 UTC 31 May 00 UTC 02 June

v o e t Ca ada s v o e ta e ge cy espo se Sect o• CTBTO, WMO adopt Joint ATM-backtracking response procedures (2007) and official

NMC Vi Off b h00 UTC 27 May 00 UTC 29 May 00 UTC 31 May 00 UTC 02 June

L d DFAIT D f F i Aff i operational status since September 2008 NMCs: Vienna, Offenbach• Lead: DFAIT - Department of Foreign Affairs operational status since September 2008PTS input from ECMWFWMO: World Meteorological Organization The top row shows hypothetical 133Xe concentration [Bq/m3] within the layer surface to 500m height

p gp

RSMC: Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (Dispersion Modelling)NDC: National Data Centre to the CTBTO Preparatory CommissionADAPTED FROM CTBTO/PTS

The top row shows hypothetical Xe concentration [Bq/m ] within the layer surface to 500m height.d I t ti l T d p yADAPTED FROM CTBTO/PTS

(2005) The bottom row shows the evolution in time of the particles which compose the plume. Lower elevations in blue, higher in red.and International Trade The bottom row shows the evolution in time of the particles which compose the plume. Lower elevations in blue, higher in red.