Israel and the Palestinians: Challenges and Opportunities Teleconference March 2009
2
Militarized PL State
Foreign forces using PL
Terrorism and Rocket fire
IL Leaves: Security Threat
Logic: Stay
Israel’s Palestinian Dilemmas
Demographic Burden
Erosion of 2SS
Logic of Implosion
IL Stays: Political Threat
Logic: Leave
3
Continuing Rocket Fire
Gilad Shalit in Captivity
Int’l Pressure to Open Crossings
Erosion of Quartet 3 Demands
War against Hamas:Was Operation Cast Lead a Corrective
Experience? Hamas Infrastructure Destroyed
Hamas Leadership Weakened
Hundreds of Terrorists Killed
Why cant Israel Win ?
January 2009
March 2009
4
The Dilemmas Hamas poses to Israel
No moderate alternative
Rockets on Tel Aviv later ?
Fear of renewed IL responsibility
Toppling Hamas
Undermines Abbas’ position
No Organizing Idea vs. Hamas
Weakens Palestinian Address
Hudna with Hamas Erodes int’l boycott on Hamas
4
5
Political Process:Permanent Status or Statebuilding?
Negotiations over PSA
(Package Approach)
‘All or Nothing’ Dynamic
Statebuilding
Moment of Truth Dangerous:Statebuilding Essential
First PSA, then State
Strengthen PL Address
First State, then PSA
6
Structural Obstacles to PSA
PSA currently Unlikely
Israeli Institutional Weakness
No ZOPA
Palestinian Constitutional
Crisis
Permanent Status Agreement
7
Statebuilding
Gestures
Institutions and Capacity Building
Upgrading the PA
Strengthening the moderate factions
Strengthening PA institutions and capacities within existing
agreements
Upgrading the PA: Statebuilding beyond existing agreements
8
Upgrading the PA
Security
Territory
Political
Economic
Sovereign State
Current PA
Embassies
UN / WTO Membership
Strengthening PA
Forces
Sept 2000 LinesCustoms
Palestinian Currency Area B
9
The Catch 22 of a PL Unity Govt.
Unity Government
No Agreement
Yes Address
Ramallah-Based Government
Yes Agreement
No Address
10
Consequences of FailureThe Erosion / Collapse of the Two State
Solution
Collapse of PA
Return to ‘Resistance’
IL blamed in Int’l Community
Towards Pariah Status
Palestinian Inversion to 2SS
Int’l Inversion to 2SS
11
What Could break the Ice?
Imposing the “Clinton Ideas”
“Economic Peace” + Political Component
NATANZ for NATAN(Aluf Benn)
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