Page 1
Training on Quantifying Urban Transport GHG Emissions, 18 - 19 May 2014
Urda Eichhorst
Introducing tools for emissions quantification
Page 2 Climate change, transport & emissions calculation 18/05/2014
What tools….
Methodologies / Guides
Databases / Statistics
Transport models
Spreadsheet tools Emission models
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Why do you quantify emissions?
Page 4 18/05/2014
Drivers for emissions quantifications
Project monitoring
GHG inventory
UNFCCC NatComs
Policy evaluation
Scenario development
…
Accessing Climate Finance
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What we can do with models and tools
Page 6 Source: TREMOD/Ifeu, 2012 18/05/2014
German transport inventory (TREMOD) GHG inventory
Total German transport CO2 emissions
NOx emissions
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Linking emissions calculation with transport demand data at street level (HBEFA)
Identify emission hot spots
Sources: SenStadt Berlin, HLUG, Infras.
Berlin NOx emissions 2002
Switzerland (freight)
Page 8 Source: Öko-Institut 18/05/2014
GHG emissions by mode and fuel
Baseline scenario: GHG emissions of passenger cars reduced by 31 million tons (20%) – share is reduced from nearly 90% to about 85%.
Climate protection scenario: GHG emissions of passenger cars reduced by 50% – share decreases to 80%. Highest increase of aviation share: from 7% to 14%.
Renewbility – National Scenario Germany Mitigation Scenarios
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
baseline 2005
baseline 2030
scenario 2030
GHG
emission
s [m t/a]
avia<on
rail
bus
PC-‐electric
PC-‐diesel
PC-‐gasoline
GH
G em
issions (Mt/year)
Baseline BAU Climate protection
Page 9 Source: ITDP 18/05/2014
E.g. Guangzhou BRT, calculated with TEEMP
Assessing emission reductions by BRT Project evaluation
Estimated CO2 emission reduction of 86,000 tons annually!
Page 10 Climate change, transport & emissions calculation 18/05/2014
Selected emission tools for transport
TREMOD
HBEFA TREMOVE COPERT
COPERT
TEEMP
TEEMP
MoMo
CHEF
MOVES
GHG Protocol
CDM
LEAP
FEEI
IVE
TRANUS
CDM
SYBIL
IVE
TRANS-TOOLS
GHG Protocol
IVE
Roadmap Model
MOBILEV
AIM
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How to select the right tool?
Page 12 Climate change, transport & emissions calculation 18/05/2014
How to find a suitable model or approach?
What is the purpose of your GHG quantification?
What is the scope of analysis?
Which types of emissions to analyse?
What transport data is needed and available?
What technical capacity is needed?
Page 13
What is the purpose of my GHG quantification?
• I want to understand and monitor the main emission sources and polluting (sub-)sectors.
• I want to understand the future trends and where emissions will come from in the future.
• I want to select the most effective mitigation actions.
• I want to monitor the impact of a policy interven- tion, an (investment) programme or a project
è Is the tool able to compute future developments/scenarios or only the status quo?
Inventory
Scenario
Scenario
Impact Assessment
Impa
ct St
atus
Page 14 Climate change, transport & emissions calculation 18/05/2014
How to Find a Suitable Model?
ü What is the purpose of your GHG quantification?
What is the scope of analysis?
Which types of emissions to analyse?
What transport data is needed and available?
What technical capacity is needed?
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What is the scope of the analysis?
• Country
• City or region
• Corridor or street
• Total population
• Companies or organisations
• Individuals
• Passenger
• Freight
• Road / Rail / Air
Mod
e A
rea
scal
e sc
ope
Emitt
er
scop
e
è Select a model that covers the desired scope. How detailed are the required input data for the ideal scope? Will I be able to attain them?
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Top-down approach
• Conversion factors based on energy content
Bottom-up
approach
Comparison
Energy based
Traffic activity based
Average values • Ø VKT • Ø emission
factors
Different aggregation levels are possible
Leve
l of d
etai
l Consistency of GHG quantification
Detailed values • VKT • emission factors
Con
sist
ency
Source: INFRAS
Page 17 Soiurce: Deutsche Bahn AG, 2014 18/05/2014
Example: individual emitter
From Frankfurt to Leipzig…
UmweltMobilCheck – Passenger Transport
Note: Low level of rail emissions is due to high share of nuclear energy in electricity mix of German rail.
Page 18 Soiurce: Deutsche Bahn AG, 2014 18/05/2014
Example: Freight routes
Eco TransIT (Ifeu, INFRAS) – Freight Transport
§ Compares energy consumption and emissions of freight transported by rail, road, ship and aircraft
§ Takes into account the intermodal transport services and the different technical standards of vehicles
www.ecotransit.org
Page 19 Climate change, transport & emissions calculation 18/05/2014
How to Find a Suitable Model?
ü
ü
What is the purpose of your GHG quantification?
What is the scope of analysis?
Which types of emissions to analyse?
What transport data is needed and available?
What technical capacity is needed?
Page 20 Climate change, transport & emissions calculation 18/05/2014
Which types of emissions to analyse?
Greenhouse Gases (relevant for transport)
• Carbon dioxide (CO2)
• Nitrous oxide (N2O) and Methane (CH4)
Regulated Pollutants
• Particulate Matter (PM10, PM2.5)
• Hydrocarbons
• Sulfur Dioxide (SO2)
• Carbon Monoxide (CO) and Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)
Cold-start?
Evaporation?
Mobile Air Con.?
Up-stream?
Construction?
Page 21 Climate change, transport & emissions calculation 18/05/2014
How to Find a Suitable Model?
ü
ü
ü
What is the purpose of your GHG quantification?
What is the scope of analysis?
Which types of emissions to analyse?
What transport data is needed and available?
What technical capacity is needed?
Pre-selection
Page 22 Climate change, transport & emissions calculation 18/05/2014
Pre-selection Additional points to consider
• What data are included in the transport model and do they fit my national context, e.g. European vs American fleet data?
• Can the tool be adapted by the user, e.g. input “personlised” fleet data?
• Which measures can be evaluated by the tool itself (e.g. changes in fleet composition)? Which external input data is required to model emission impacts of different measures, e.g. congestion effects?
• If street level-data is desired: Can the emission model easily be combined with travel demand models? (data formats)
• Is the tool freely available or does the tool need to be purchased? Does it involve a package with consultancy services of a company?
è Some expert advice might be necessary to choose the best fitting tool and understand related data requirements
Page 23 Climate change, transport & emissions calculation 18/05/2014
Selected tools and their applications
Inventory Scenario National City Street HBEFA x x (CH, SE) x x MOVES x x x x MOBILEV x x x x TEEMP x x GHG Protocol
x Policies & Actions Standard
x
CDM x x PHEM x x IVE x x x x
Page 24 Climate change, transport & emissions calculation 18/05/2014
Selected tools and their applications Inventory Scenario National City Street
HBEFA x x (CH, SE) x x MOVES x x x x MOBILEV x x x x GHG Protocol
x Policies & Actions Standard
x
TEEMP x x PHEM x x IVE x x x x COPERT x x TREMOVE x x TREMOD x x x MoMo x x LEAP x x
Page 25 Climate change, transport & emissions calculation 18/05/2014
How to Find a Suitable Model?
ü
ü
ü
What is the purpose of your GHG quantification?
What is the scope of analysis?
Which types of emissions to analyse?
What transport data is needed and available?
What technical capacity is needed?
Pre-selection
Page 26 Climate change, transport & emissions calculation 18/05/2014
What transport data is available?
• Is a transport demand model available for the city? Which parts of the city?
o If yes à Linkwise modeling is possible ….
o If no à aggregated calculation at chosen scale
• Is data that is available also accessible (e.g. vehicle registration data)?
• Is the data up-to-date?
• Are local or national emission factors available? What does it mean if international default values are used instead?
• Is additional data gathering necessary? Is it possible?
è Decide on an adequate, i.e. feasible and meaningful level of detail for the required purpose
è National level can support e.g. development of national emission factors, data consistency, sharing and management
Page 27 Climate change, transport & emissions calculation 18/05/2014
What transport data is available? Data items for bottom-up calculations
ASIF parameter Data requirement
Activity
• Total fuel use • Annual vehicle kilometers travelled by vehicle class • Tonnes of freight moved • Passenger numbers • Annual kms or fuel use by locomotive type
Structure • Composition of vehicle fleets • Modal shares
Intensity
• Fuel consumed per passenger km or tonne km by detailed vehicle class or locomotive type for rail
• Information on occupancy / load rates
Fuels
• The carbon content of the fuels used (i.e. petrol, diesel and CNG for road transport; diesel or electricity for rail).
Page 28 Source: Gorham, 2003 18/05/2014
Data sources
Parameter Measurement
Ideal Second best Common approach
A • Household Travel surveys • Origin-destination surveys • Commodity flow surveys
• Odometer readings • traffic counts + occupancy
observations + assumptions
• Fuel sales ÷ (assumed on-road fuel economy * number of vehicles)
S • Household travel surveys • Commodity flow surveys
• VKT + occupancy observations by mode
• Flat assumptions for modes of secondary interest
I • On-road measurements of
fuel consumed + occupancy/load-factor
• observations or surveys
• New car fuel economy test ratings + assumed or tested
• deterioration rates + occupancy/load-factor observations, surveys,
• or assumptions
• Fuel sales ÷ (VKT per vehicles * number of vehicles)
F • On-road measurements of
pollutant emissions • Emissions models, with
locally derived emissions factors and
• drive cycles
• Emissions models, with borrowed emissions factors and drive
• cycles
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Monitoring of GHG emissions on city level
Impact of measures Avoid Shift Improve Fluel
Travel activity Fleet + traffic flow Fuel types
Handbook on Emission Factors China
VKT Fleet composition
Traffic Situations
Fuel types
Average values
Disaggregated
Average values
Disaggregated
Average values
Disaggregated
Average values
Disaggregated
Modal shift measure
Reduction stop+ go
New fleet Electric vehicles
Objectives of GHG emission monitoring influences the level of detail for input data
Source: Schmied/INFRAS, 2014
Page 30 Climate change, transport & emissions calculation 18/05/2014
How to Find a Suitable Model?
ü
ü
ü
What is the purpose of your GHG quantification?
What is the scope of analysis?
Which types of emissions to analyse?
What transport data is needed and available?
What technical capacity is needed?
ü
Pre-selection
Page 31 Climate change, transport & emissions calculation 18/05/2014
What technical capacity is needed?
• Are local capacities sufficient to quantify emissions with the chosen approach?
o Yes à excellent – let`s get started!
o No à Different options:
o Develop capacities of local staff and clear guidance
o Subcontract external consultants to quantify emissions
o (Choose easier quantification approach)
Page 32 Climate change, transport & emissions calculation 18/05/2014
How to Find a Suitable Model?
ü
ü
ü
ü
What is the purpose of your GHG quantification?
What is the scope of analysis?
Which types of emissions to analyse?
What transport data is needed and available?
What technical capacity is needed?
ü
Pre-selection
Final selection
Page 33 Climate change, transport & emissions calculation 18/05/2014
Take aways
• Many models and approaches exist, but some adaptation will in most cases by necessary
• Data quality is more significant than model choice!
• A good model without good data is like a chef`s recipe with poor ingredients – the outcome will be bland
• Transparency on assumptions, shortcomings and uncertainties is important for others to interpret model/tool results carefully
• Quantification approach and methodology should be clear, before data collection and setting up data collection systems, in order to collect all the necessary data and in the necessary format for the approach chosen
• The most basic data requirements are readily achievable in most circumstances – a stepwise approach is possible
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Thank you for your attention! Urda Eichhorst
Project Manager
Low Carbon Transport Development
18/05/2014
Page 35 Soiurce: Deutsche Bahn AG, 2014 18/05/2014
Example: individual emitter
From Frankfurt to Leipzig…
UmweltMobilCheck – Passenger Transport
Note: Low level of rail emissions is due to high share of nuclear energy in electricity mix of German rail.
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Transport demand and emisison model
Transport system
Link type, volume/time
Emission model
Fleet
Traffic situation
Emission factor
Vehicle km
Emissions
Emissions = VehKm x factor
Source: PTV
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Components of bottom-up models
Vehicles fleet
è Fleet model based on fleet composition and (annual) mileages
Emission factors
è Database on fuel consumption or emissions by kilo- meter travelled for various types of vehicles
Travel activity data
è Travel survey data or travel demand models Vario
us le
vels
of d
etai
l
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