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International Futures (IFs)
An Overview of Structural Design
March 2004 Barry Hughes
University of Denver
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Outline: An Overview of Structural Design
1. Foundations: Motivation, Purposes, Assumptions
2. Design Drivers: Desired Characteristics
3. Design Decisions and Elements: Generic
4. Design Details: Issue-Area/Module Specific
5. Vision for Evolution
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Foundations: Motivation and Purposes
1. Tool for understanding long-term global change
Education
Insight
2. Tool for exploring human leverage in pursuit of keyvalues/goals:
Freedom and Human
Development Humans as Individuals
Social Capacity forPeace/Justice Humans with Each Other
Sustainable Material Well-
Being Humans with Environment
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Design Drivers: Desired Characteristics
1. Global (With Regional and
Country Detail)
2. Integrated, Multi-Issue
3. Long-Term
4. Data and Theory-Based
1. Interventions Possible
2. User-Friendly
3. Accessible/Available
4. Transparent/Open
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Design Decisions/Elements I:Modules, Example Links
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Design Decisions/Elements II: Components
Components Explanation Implications (Good; Bad)
Key Dynamics
Equilibrium-seeking
and disequilibrium-
causing
Non-linear behavior producible;
Analysis and tuning necessary
Dominant
Relationships
Agent-class
behavior by
households,
governments, firms
when possible;
aggregate when not
Leverage points accessible;
Eclectic, evolving formulations
necessary (estimations,
stylized facts, algorithmic)
Accounting
System
Foundations:
Stocks and Flows
Population; Land;Capital;
Goods/Services;
Assets/Liabilities;
Materials;
Knowledge
Intervention consequences
meaningfully tracked;
Data/structure intensive
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Design Details I: Demographics
Components Demographics Implementation Details
Key Dynamics
No equilibration stabilizes
population. Long-term
fertility rates, life
expectancy, and peaks of
HIV/AIDS are uncertain.
Base patterns adjusted to
UN forecasts; scenarios
used for uncertain patterns.
Dominant Relationships
Fertility rate primary.
Life expectancy secondary.
HIV/AIDS a wildcard.
Fertility and mortality (lifeexpectancy) are cross-
sectionally estimated
functions of GDP/capita with
additional time-shift terms;
need to extend driver set
(e.g education level).
HIV/AIDS is algorithmic,
using approach of UNAIDS.
Accounting System
Foundations: Stocks and
Flows
Cohort-component age-
sex structure with births,
deaths, migration.
22 age-sex cohorts to age
100+. Separate age-sex,
fertility and mortality
distributions.
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Design Details II: Goods and Services Production
Components
Goods and Services
Production Implementation Details
Key Dynamics
Mostly a positive feedback
loop driven by other
modules/models, including
demographic, government
spending, energy..
Human capital growth can
accelerate economic growth;
energy constraints can
dampen it; interstate
technology flow can diffuse it
Dominant Relationships
Growth of multifactor
productivity.
Algorithmic, multi-
component representation of
endogenous productivity
growth, with inputs from
human capital (education,
health), social capital
(economic freedom),
physical capital quality(energy prices), global
technology diffusion.
Accounting System
Foundations: Stocks and
Flows
Multi-sector production,
driven by capital and labor
stocks, accumulated
productivity .
Cobb-Douglas production
function, using disembodied
multifactor productivity.
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Design Details III: Goods and Services Market
Components
Goods and Services
Markets Implementation Details
Key Dynamics
General equilibrium model
(GEM) structure pursues
target inventory levels;
changes in prices provide
signals to production,
consumption, trade, and
investment.
Equilibration uses PID
controller and is not tuned to
create standard cycles.
Dominant Relationships
Production from detailed
formulation. Sectoral
consumption function is
price responsive. Trade is
price, exchange-rate
responsive.
Division of consumption
uses LES. Trade uses
pooled, not dyadic
approach.
Accounting System
Foundations: Stocks and
Flows
Multi-sector supply and
demand, using inventories
as balancing stocks;
production and imports
increment stocks while
consumption and exports
decrement them.
Six sectors using dynamic
IO matrix.
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Design Details IV: Finance
Components Finance Implementation Details
Key Dynamics
Domestic equilibration arounddebt levels of government.
International equilibration, usingexchange rate indices, aroundinternational debt levels.
No equilibration around householddebt or wealth.
Dominant Relationships
Government expenditure levelsand patterns. Division ofhousehold income betweenconsumption and savings.World Bank flows acrosscountries and to various targetuses.
Government expenditure levelsrespond to GDP/capita; patternsof use respond to many forces.Division of income is a function ofGDP/capita (should addpermanent income overlay);structure should move tohousehold utility with time-budgetsincluding leisure.
Accounting System Foundations:Stocks and Flows
Social Accounting Matrices(SAMs) for flows, tied tounderlying asset/liability stockrepresentations.
Representations of households(skilled/unskilled), governments,
firms and rest of world (ROW).ROW representations, balancedglobally, include FDI, equity, aid,and IFI flows.
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Design Details V: Energy Resources
Components Energy Resouces Implementation Details
Key Dynamics
Resource exhaustion
ultimately constrains
replenishment of fossil fuel
reserves.
Dominant Relationships
Rates of discovery and
rates of production.
Algorithmic formulations
determine discovery rates
and larger module
determines production.
Accounting SystemFoundations: Stocks and
Flows
Non-renewable resources
use "McKelvey's Box" with
discoveries/extensions
increasing reserves (astock) and production
decrementing them.
Fossil fuels are oil, gas,
coal.
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Design Details VI: Energy Production
Components Energy Production Implementation Details
Key Dynamics
Reserve depletion constrains
production of fossil fuels, whiletechnology change drivesrenewable costs andproduction.
Reserve/production ratiominimums implement reserveconstraint.
Dominant Relationships
For non-renewable energyforms, capital-output ratios fallwith technology assumptionsand rise as reserve/productionratios fall. For renewable
energy forms capital-outputratios fall with technolgocicalassumptions. Investment
levels respond to price/profitsignals.
Largely algorithmic formulations.Technological assumptions
mostly exogenous, but somelearning by doing.
Accounting SystemFoundations: Stocks andFlows
Capital stocks andcapital/output ratios drive
production of energy, by type.
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Design Details VII: Energy Markets
Components Energy Markets Details
Key Dynamics
Partial equilibrium model,
driving price changes
fundamentally by capital costs
of energy, marked up by
market-clearing signals from
inventory/stock levels.
Physical production,
consumption and trade override
monetary calculations in goods
and services submodel.
Dominant Relationships
Production depends on capital
stock levels and capital/output
ratios. Demand responds to
economy size, income levels,
and price signals. Trade
responds to local
demand/supply balances and
price signals.
Reserve and capital dynamics
determine fossil production.
Capital dynamics determine
nonrenewable production. For
elasticities on demand side, look
to other literature. Trade is
algorithmic.
Accounting System
Foundations: Stocks and Flows
Inventory stocks drive price
changes and signals for
equilibration.
Multi-energy-type model with
production capacities by energy
type and aggregated energy
demand and trade. Fossil fuels
are oil, gas, coal. Renewables
are nuclear, hydro, and other
renewables.
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Design Details VIII: Land Use
Components Land Use Details
Key Dynamics
Cropland costs increase
as more is developed.
Forest land area is
derivative from agricultural
and urban use patterns.
Dominant Relationships
(De)development of cropland driven by investment
in agriculture and relative
costs of increased yield
and land conversion.
Increased
urban/developed land
driven by population,
income. Algorithmic formulations
Accounting System
Foundations: Stocks and
Flows
Total land allocated
across categories.
Categories are crop,
grazing, forest,
urban/developed, other.
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Design Details IX: Food Production
Components Food Production Implementation Details
Key Dynamics
Maximum yield
specification constrains
yield, while technology
change drives it upward.
Ideally should tie maximum
yields to biological
(photosynthetic) maximums.
Dominant Relationships
Short-term production
responds to profit signals
dependent on equilibrating
prices relative to production
costs. Investment levels
respond to price/profit
signals.
Largely algorithmic
formulations. Technological
assumptions exogenous.
Accounting System
Foundations: Stocks and
Flows
Capital stocks, agriculturallabor supply, and
technoology drive crop
yields. Livestock herds
drive meat production.
Yield has Cobb-Douglas form
with accumulated,disembodied technology
term. Total production
requires multiplication by
land.
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Design Details X: Food/Agriculture Markets
Components Food/Agriculture Markets Details
Key Dynamics
Partial equilibrium model,driving price changesfundamentally by capital costsof production, marked up bymarket-clearing signals frominventory/stock levels.
Physical production, consumptionand trade override monetarycalculations in goods andservices sub-model.
Dominant Relationships
Production from its ownmodule. Demand responds to
population size, income levels,and price signals.
Demand for food ultimatelyderived from calorie demand. Percapita calorie demand related toGDP per capita by cross-sectionalestimation and is also priceresponsive. Some calories frommeat, also related to GDP per
capita, but additionally to initial(cultural) patterns.
Accounting System Foundations:Stocks and Flows
Multiple types of food type withproduction capacities, demand,and trade by type. Inventory
stocks drive price changes andsignals for equilibration.
Crops and meat are primarydistinction, but fish also tracked.
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Design Details XI: Environment (CO2)
Components Environment: CO2 Details
Key DynamicsFully determined by
accounting calculations.
Dominant Relationships
Flows of CO2 from
carbon fuels and
de/reforestation.
Energy submodel
determines fossil fuel use
and land module of
agricultural submodel
determines forest
changes.
Accounting System
Foundations: Stocks
and Flows
Atmospheric CO2 stock
is augmented ordecremented by
releases from fossil fuel
use, deforestation, and
uptake by oceans/land.
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Design Details XII: Environment (Water)
Components Environment: Water Details
Key Dynamics
There are none - feedbacks
from a comparison of water
demand with freshwater
supply (exogenously given)
could be developed.
Dominant Relationships
Agricultural production and
GDP/capita level determine
water demand.
Accounting System
Foundations: Stocks and
Flows
There is no stock
accounting of water, but
there could/should be one
involving aquifers.
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Design Details XIII: Values/Culture
Components. Values/Culture Details
Key DynamicsChange tends to be mostly
monotonic and gradual
Dominant Relationships
Value change is driven by
GDP per capita.
Cross-sectional estimations
and inertial elements are
used.
Accounting SystemFoundations: Stocks and
Flows
Cultural value patterns of
older generations are
treated as relatively stable
stock and values formed bycoming-of-age generation as
flow.
Two orthogonal value
dimensions and one
aggregate dimension of WVS
project are used. In
computing values for non-
surveyed states in
preprocessor, cultural region
is used along withGDP/capita and economic
structure.
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Design Details XIV: Education
Components Education Details
Key Dynamics
Similar to population
dynamics, but driven heavily
by governmental spending
on education. Differentiation
into three levels of education
with specification of years in
each leads to saturation oftotal years of education at
highest levels.
Dominant Relationships
Incremental educational
years as functions of drop-
out rates and of educational
expenditures.
Drop-out rates and basic
educational expenditures
estimated cross-sectionally.
Accounting System
Foundations: Stocks and
Flows
Stocks of the educated, byyears of education, parallel
age-sex distribution of
population; incremental
flows are tracked by year of
education and decremental
flows through death.
Currently gender
differentiations are not
maintained, but they will be
added.
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Design Details XV: Democracy
Components Democracy Details
Key Dynamics
Determined by underlying
variables, all of which tend to
change slowly and usually
monotonically. Drivers and
therefore democracy saturate.
Dominant Relationships
Democracy driven by some
combination of GDP/capita,
survival/self-expression, and
education years.
Use Polity and Freedom House
measures of
democracy. Estimations are
cross-sectional.
Accounting System
Foundations: Stocks and
Flows Not stock based.
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Design Details XVI: Human Development
Components Human Development Details
Key Dynamics
That of underlying
indicator components
Dominant Relationships Standard index calculation
Components for index come
from assorted sub-models.
Accounting System
Foundations: Stocks and
Flows
Derivative from life
expectancy, education,
GDP per capita. Only
education is directly stock-
based.
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Design Details XVII: State Failure
Components State Failure Details
Key Dynamics
That of underlying drivers,
mostly slowly,
monotonically changing.
Dominant Relationships
State failure, by type, is a
function of some
combination of infantmortality, democracy, trade
openness, education
levels, and GDP per
capita.
Cross-sectional estimation
with attention to longitudinal
patterns
Accounting System
Foundations: Stocks and
Flows
No stock character, but
formulation uses initial
values as inertial
foundation for change.
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Design Details XVIII: Interstate Threaat
Components Interstate Threat Details
Key Dynamics
That of underlying drivers,
mostly slowly changing.
Dominant Relationships
Interstate threat driven by
contiguity, power
relationships, democracylevels, alliance patterns,
territorial dispute
existence, trade levels.
An algorithmic formulation is
based on stylized facts fromother estimations,
buttressed by some
estimations for the project.
Accounting System
Foundations: Stocks and
Flows
No stock character, but
formulation uses initial
values as inertial
foundation for change.
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Vision for Evolution of World Modelingfor Long-Range Analysis
1. Data foundations
Extend data import
techniques to formal links to
multiple databases (create
meta-database)
2. Formulations
Extend transparency and
openness into on-line,
collective development with
libraries of formulations,
modules
3. Institutionalization of team
Kernel updates
1. Accessibility
Web-based
2. User-Friendly
Simplified interface withbuilding-blocks for scenarios
and packaged scenarios
3. Strategy-Search Tools
CARS/IFs
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