Integrated Status & Trend (ISTM) Project: An overview of establishing, evaluating and modifying monitoring priorities for LCR Steelhead
Jeff Rodgers (ODFW)&
Dan Rawding (WDFW)
Lower Columbia River Pilot Project
• Chum, coho, fall Chinook, late fall Chinook, spring Chinook, winter steelhead, summer steelhead – ESA listed
• Multi-jurisdictional
• State recover plans need integrated & coordinated monitoring
Five basic objectives of ISTM
1. Identify & prioritize decisions, questions, and objectives
2. Review existing programs and designs and identify gaps
3. Identify monitoring designs, sampling frames, protocols, and analytical tools
4. Use trade-off analyses to develop recommendations for monitoring
5. Recommend implementation and reporting mechanisms
Objective 1: Identify & prioritize decisions, questions, and objectives
• State Recovery Plans• Statewide Monitoring Documents• NOAA ESA Monitoring Guidance• NPCC Columbia River MERR Plan• Two workshops
Guidance
Objective 1: Identify & prioritize decisions, questions, and objectives
Winter Steelhead VSP Indicator Relative Priorities
Young
s Bay
Big Cre
ek
Clatsk
anie
Scapp
oose
Grays
Elocho
manM
ill
Clacka
mas
Sandy
L Cow
litz
U Cow
litz
Cispus
Tilton
SF Tou
tle
NF Tou
tle
Cowee
man
Kalam
a
NF Le
wis
EF Le
wis
Salmon
Was
houg
al
Lower
Gor
ge
Upper
Gor
ge
Hood
Spawner &adult recruitabundance;
adult age, sex,origin, anddistribution
JuvenileMigrants
Migration/Spawn Timing
Fry/Parr Index& Distribution
0
1
2
3
Lo
w
Mo
de
rate
H
igh
Winter Steelhead Prioritization “Filters”
Young
s Bay
Big Cre
ek
Clatsk
anie
Scapp
oose
Grays
Elocho
man
Mill
Clacka
mas
Sandy
L Cow
litz
U Cow
litz
Cispus
Tilton
SF Tou
tle
NF Tou
tle
Cowee
man
Kalam
a
NF Le
wis
EF Le
wis
Salmon
Was
houg
al
Lower
Gor
ge
Upper
Gor
ge
Hood
RecoveryPriority
CurrentNaturalOrigin
Abundance
In/OutPotential
SpecialCases
0
1
2
3
Lo
w
M
od
erat
e
Hig
h
Mark recapture being conducted
Productivity testing.
Total Species Population Score = (ΣAll indicator Scores for a Species & Population) x ((2 x Recovery Priority Score) + Current Natural Origin Abundance Score + In/Out Potential Score + Special Cases Score)/5)
Total Score for Winter Steelhead - Adults and Juveniles
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Mill
Big C
reek
Cispus
Clacka
mas
Clatsk
anie
Cowee
man
Kalam
a
NF Tout
le
U Cow
litzHoo
d
Sandy
Scapp
oose
Young
s Bay
Gra
ys
SF Tou
tle
EF Lew
is
Lower G
orge
Eloch
oman
NF Lew
is
Wash
ougal
Tilton
L Cowlitz
Upper G
orge
Salm
on
Coast Cascade Gorge
Objective 2: Review existing programs and designs and identify gaps
• Build off the indicators developed in Objective 1
• Develop criteria to assess bias and precision of indicators derived from different monitoring approaches
• Identify the monitoring gaps (difference between priority and current monitoring)
• Outline specific monitoring needs based on the gaps
Objective 2: Review existing programs and designs and identify gaps
Scoring Criteria Developed For:
Fry/parr abundance using snorkeling &/or electrofishing Abundance of juvenile migrants using mark-recapture Juvenile migrant abundance using weirs Adult recruitment based on CWT program Adult recruitment based on Columbia River fisheries monitoring Adult spawner abundance using the Petersen mark-recapture Adult spawner abundance using weirs Adult spawner abundance using the Jolly-Seber adult spawner abundance using periodic live counts area-under-the-
curve (AUC) adult spawner abundance using the peak count expansion adult spawner abundance using redd counts Age structure Migration/spawning timing Sex ratio Origin Juvenile distribution Spawner distribution
Quantitative Criteria• Unbiased estimates are important so we
emphasize assumption, selectivity, and goodness of fit testing of methods.
• Precision for abundance (CV < 15%) for adults and juveniles, except an adult CV < 25% for populations with low recovery priority. These standards are 95% CI +30% and + 50%
• Precision standards for age, origin, and sex are 95% CI + 5% for high priority recovery populations and + 10% for other populations.
0%
5%
10%
15%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Percentage
95
%C
I Ha
lf W
idth
n=50n=100n=200n=300n=400
0%
5%
10%
15%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Percentage
95%
CI
Hal
f W
idth
n=50n=100n=200n=300n=400
0%
5%
10%
15%
0 100 200 300 400 500
Sample Size
95
%C
I H
alf
Wid
th
Effect of proportionon 95% CI
• 95% CI is dome shaped• greatest uncertainty in the 95% CI is when the proportion = 50%
Effect of Sample Sizeon 95% CI
•assuming 50% of the fish are one age, sex, or origin
•need 100 biological samples to meet + 10%, and• 400 samples to meet + 5%
• difficulty in obtaining sufficient sample sizes fromsmall populations especially under high turbid water
General scoring criteria for VSP indicators and rationale used to assess alignment of monitoring
programs
Score Rationale
1.00 Precision and bias requirements are met AND there are no untested critical assumptions OR monitoring is not needed.
0.75
Precision and bias requirements appear to be met BUT there are some locally untested critical assumptions (assumption tests are available within the population domain or under similar environmental conditions)
0.50 Precision and bias requirements appear to be met BUT there are some completely untested critical assumptions (assumption tests not available)
0.25 Precision OR bias requirements not met AND assumptions may or may not be tested
0.00 Precision AND bias requirements not met AND assumptions may or may not be tested
Criteria for scoring programs that monitor the index of juvenile abundance.
Score Precision Guideline Bias Guideline
1.00 CV met, AND
Representative sample site selection throughout inference domain with abundance estimates obtained by pass-removal or mark-recapture estimates that do not violate critical assumptions.
0.75 CV met, AND
Representative sample site selection throughout inference domain and the use of the Hankin and Reeves method of obtaining abundance estimates (i.e. snorkel counts calibrated to electrofishing estimates). Critical assumptions of removal and mark/recapture estimates not violated.
0.50 CV met, AND
Representative sample site selection throughout inference domain using uncalibrated snorkel counts with quality control re-resurveys conducted to assess repeatability of counts. Critical assumptions of snorkel counts not violated.
0.25 CV met, OR
Representativeness of sample sites unknown with an uncalibrated snorkel counts with no quality control re-surveys. Critical assumptions of snorkel counts may potentially be violated.
0.00 CV not met AND No sampling or unrepresentative sample site selection.
LCR Winter Steelhead Monitoring GAPS
0
20
40
60
80M
illB
ig C
ree
kC
lats
kan
ieC
lack
am
as
U C
ow
litz
Cis
pu
sN
F T
ou
tleC
ow
ee
ma
nK
ala
ma
Yo
un
gs
Sca
pp
oo
seS
an
dy
Ho
od
Gra
ysS
F T
ou
tleE
F L
ew
isL
ow
er
Elo
cho
ma
nN
F L
ew
isW
ash
ou
ga
lT
ilto
nL
Co
wlit
zU
pp
er
Sa
lmo
n
Population
Tota
l (A
du
lt &
Ju
v) S
core
Monitoring Priorities Implemented
Fry/Parr Juvenile Migrants
Adult Recruits (Harvest) Spawners
Age Stucture
Migration/Spawn Timing Sex Origin
Fry/Parr Distribution
Spawner Distribution
Youngs Bay High 0.75 1.00 0.25 0.50 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.50Big Creek High 0.75 1.00 0.25 0.50 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.50
Clatskanie High 0.75 1.00 0.25 0.50 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.50Scappoose High 0.75 1.00 0.25 0.50 0.00 0.50 0.25 0.25 1.00 0.50Clackamas High 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.00 0.50 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50
Sandy High 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.00 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25Lower Gorge High 0.25 1.00 0.25 0.50 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.50Upper Gorge Low 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Hood High 0.00 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.25 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.25
StratumWinter Steelhead
PopulationRecovery
Priority
Abundance Diversity Distribution
Coast
Cascade
Gorge
Oregon Winter Steelhead: Scoring of Current or Planned Monitoring
• Fry/Parr abundance & distribution: Add additional 2 person crew for separate Cascade and Gorge strata inferences. Ways to distinguish StW & StS.
• Recruits: Evaluate creel designs. CWT program using local wild broodstock. CVs for harvest and release mortality rates.
• JOM: Need to reduce potential bias of Clackamas data and improve precision of Sandy and Hood data. Ways to distinguish StW & StS.
• Spawner abundance, distribution, and timing: Test assumptions on redd life, sex ratios, and observation probability. Potential spatial bias in Sandy and Clackamas (visibility and hatchery fish). More effort in Hood.
• Age, sex, origin: Develop programs in most populations, evaluate selectivity and spatial biases. Increase effort in Hood.
Needs:
Fry/Parr Juvenile Migrants
Adult Recruits (Harvest) Spawners
Age Stucture
Migration/Spawn Timing Sex Origin
Fry/Parr Distribution
Spawner Distribution
Grays High 0.00 1.00 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.25 0.50 0.25 0.00 0.25Elochoman Medium 0.00 1.00 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.25 0.50 0.25 0.00 0.25
Mill High 0.00 1.00 0.25 0.50 1.00 0.50 0.50 0.75 0.00 0.50L Cowlitz Medium 0.00 1.00 0.25 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 1.00U Cowlitz High 0.00 1.00 0.25 0.75 0.00 0.75 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.25
Cispus High 0.00 1.00 0.25 0.75 0.00 0.75 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.25Tilton Low 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
SF Toutle High 0.00 1.00 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.25 0.50 0.25 0.00 0.25NF Toutle High 0.00 1.00 0.25 0.50 1.00 0.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 0.50
Coweeman High 0.00 1.00 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.25 0.50 0.25 0.00 0.25Kalama High 0.00 1.00 0.25 0.75 1.00 0.75 1.00 0.75 0.00 0.00
NF Lewis Medium 0.00 1.00 0.25 0.25 1.00 0.25 1.00 0.50 0.00 0.25EF Lewis High 0.00 1.00 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.25 0.50 0.25 0.00 0.25
Salmon Low 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00Washougal Medium 0.00 1.00 0.50 0.25 0.50 0.25 0.50 0.25 0.00 0.25
Lower Gorge High 0.00 1.00 0.25 0.50 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.25 1.00Upper Gorge Low 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
StratumWinter Steelhead
PopulationRecovery
Priority
Abundance Diversity Distribution
Coast
Cascade
Gorge
Washington Winter Steelhead: Scoring of Current or Planned Monitoring
• Parr abundance & distribution: Develop parr monitoring program similar to ODFW.
• Spawner abundance, distribution, and timing: Explore ways to decrease variability in females per redd & redd duration to improve precision. Implement new sampling design based on redd modeling and sample frame.
•Recruits: Add periodic angler surveys for each population & collect and analyze steelhead genetic samples from spring Chinook onboard monitoring.
•Age, sex, origin: Few spawners leads to insufficient adult biological samples. Solutions are increase abundance or explore hierarchical modeling. Implement selectivity tests for bias and age sampling at Barrier Dam (Cowlitz).
Needs:
Summary & So What?
• Template that can be used to provide unbiased, repeatable, and documented identification of monitoring priorities and needs
• Graphical output easily understood and communicated
• Allows regional funding decisions to be developed under a common framework
Questions?
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