www.hldi.org
Insurance Analyses of Crash Avoidance Systems and Implications for Consumer Information TestingSAE 2012 Government/Industry MeetingWashington, DC ● January 25, 2012Matthew Moore
www.hldi.org
The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, founded in 1959, is an independent, nonprofit, scientific, and educational organization dedicated to reducing the losses — deaths, injuries, and property damage — from crashes on the nation's highways.
The Highway Loss Data Institute, founded in 1972, shares and supports this mission through scientific studies of insurance data representing the human and economic losses resulting from the ownership and operation of different types of vehicles and by publishing insurance loss results by vehicle make and model.
Both organizations are wholly supported by auto insurers.
www.hldi.org
HLDI data providers• 21st Century
• AAA Northern California, Nevada & Utah
• Allstate
• American Family
• Amica
• ANPAC
• Auto Club Group
• Automobile Insurers Bureau of Mass.
• Chubb
• COUNTRY
• Erie
• Farm Bureau Financial Services (Iowa Farm Bureau)
• Farmers
• Foremost
• GEICO
• GMAC
• The Hartford
• High Point a Plymouth Rock Company
• Kentucky Farm Bureau
• Liberty Mutual
• MetLife
• Nationwide
• PEMCO
• Progressive
• Rockingham
• Safeco
• Secura Insurance
• State Farm
• Tennessee Farm Bureau
• Travelers
• Unitrin
• USAA
www.hldi.org
Volvo City Safety research overview
covariatescalendar year, vehicle series and model year,
rated driver age, rated driver gender, rated driver marital status, rated driver risk, state, registered vehicle density, deductible
model years 2009-10
calendar years 2009-10
collision exposure (in
years)
11,641 (Volvo XC60)472,243 (All other midsize luxury SUVs)
60,227 (All other Volvos)
collision claims
628 (Volvo XC60)32,563 (All other midsize luxury SUVs)
3,988 (All other Volvos)
www.hldi.org
Measures of loss
exposureExposure is expressed in insured vehicle years. One year of
exposure is defined as 1 vehicle insured for 1 year.
claim frequency Calculated by dividing claims by exposure.
claim severityMeasured in dollars.
Claim amounts are summed and divided by the number of claims.
overall loss Obtained by dividing the money spent on claims by the exposure.
www.hldi.org
Volvo City Safety
www.hldi.org
Volvo
XC60
all o
ther
s
Land
Rov
er L
R2
BMW
X5
Saab
9-7X
Volvo
XC90
BMW
X6
Acura
ZDX
Infin
iti FX35
Linco
ln M
KX
Lexu
s RX 4
50H h
ybrid
Acura
MDX
Lexu
s RX 3
50
Cadilla
c SRX
Mer
cede
s M
clas
s
Mer
cede
s G
LK
Infin
iti FX50
Acura
RDX
Linco
ln M
KT
BMW
X3
Audi Q
5 qu
attro
Infin
iti EX35
Mer
cede
s M
clas
s hy
brid
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Property damage liability claim frequencies for 2010 Volvo XC60With City Safety vs. other 2009-10 midsize luxury SUVs
www.hldi.org
Property damage liability claim frequencies for 2010 Volvo XC60With City Safety vs. other 2009-10 Volvos
XC60 all others
XC90 S40 V70 V50 S60 S80 C30 XC70 C700
1
2
3
4
www.hldi.org
Volvo XC60 City Safety
vs. other Volvos claimfrequency
claimseverity
overalllosses
property damage liability -24.5% -19.2% -13.7% $488 $646 $794 -$5 $2 $7
bodily injury -62.3% -49.2% -31.4%
collision -20.2% -16.7% -13.0% -$362 -$147 $58 -$72 -$53 -$36
vs. other midsize luxury SUVs
claimfrequency
claimseverity
overalllosses
property damage liability -29.3% -26.6% -23.9% $174 $270 $362 -$21 -$166 -$125
bodily injury -58.9% -51.1% -41.8%
collision -23.8% -22.0% -20.1% -$645 -$517 -$392 -$109 -$98 -$86
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Property damage liability claim frequencies by size of claimVolvo XC60 vs. other midsize luxury SUVs
$0-$1,499 $1,500-$6,999 $7,000+0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
Volvo XC60
all other midsize luxury SUVs
www.hldi.org
Collision claim frequencies by size of claimVolvo XC60 vs. other midsize luxury SUVs
< $2,000 $2,000-$4,999 $5,000-$11,999 $12,000+0
1
2
3
4
Volvo XC60
all other midsize luxury SUVs
www.hldi.org
Percent of claims and average damage amountBy point of impact and coverage, 2005-07 models
27.9$4,658
9.8$3,726
3.6$3,031
2.7$3,615
2.8$2,687
6.5$2,687
20.0$2,204
6.0$2,289
3.0$3,098
10.5$3,650
3.5$2,588
3.6$3,519
collisionN= 1,526,416 ($3,367)
FRONT
13.5$3,070
6.5$2,596
3.3$2,186
3.0$2,505
3.4$1,938
7.1$1,753
44.5$1,714
5.3$1,840
2.3$2,268
5.7$2,588
2.7$1,973
2.8$2,520
PDLN= 690,929 ($2,103)
FRONT
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IIHS – HLDI evaluations of crash avoidance systems
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Preliminary summary VIN based analyses of insurance data
• Adaptive cruise control and forward collision warning with/withoutcollision mitigation systems associated with lower crash frequency
• Adaptive front lighting systems associated with lower crash frequency
– Although reductions seem too large
• Blind spot monitor systems associated with lower crash frequency
• No indication that lane departure warning systems lower crash frequency
• Some parking systems associated with lower crash frequency
www.hldi.org
Availability of featuresfor automobiles
www.hldi.org
New vehicle series with driver frontal airbagBy model year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
standard optional not available
www.hldi.org
Registered vehicles with driver frontal airbagBy calendar year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
standard optional not available
www.hldi.org
1984
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Registered vehicles with driver frontal airbag,actual and predictedBy calendar year
predicted
actual
www.hldi.org
New vehicle series with electronic stability controlBy model year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
standard optional not available
www.hldi.org
Registered vehicles with electronic stability controlBy calendar year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
standard optional not available
www.hldi.org
Registered vehicles with electronic stability control,actual and predictedBy calendar year
1995
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
predicted
actual
www.hldi.org
New vehicle series with forward collision warningBy model year
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
standard optional not available
www.hldi.org
Registered vehicles with forward collision warningBy calendar year
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
standard optional not available
www.hldi.org
Registered vehicles with forward collision warning,actual and predictedBy calendar year
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
predicted
actual
www.iihs.org
IIHS evaluations of crash avoidance systems
www.iihs.org
Vehicle to stationary target tests
www.iihs.org
Vehicle to moving target testing
www.iihs.org
Also conducting vehicle to pedestrian testing
www.iihs.org
Lessons learnedComparison testing is complicated
• Target fidelity to what it represents
– Depends on sensors
– Depends on algorithms
• Test surface coefficient of friction
– DRI GST incapable of 0.6 g braking at IIHS despite working at home
– Likely to affect measured auto-braking response
• Crash avoidance system error codes
– Can they be avoided?
– Do they affect system response?
– Can they be reset?
www.hldi.orgSource of insurance loss statistics on mostcar, SUV, pickup, and motorcycle modelson the road
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