NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC
Islanded Grid Wind Diesel Conference March 6, 2015 Anchorage, AK Brian Hirsch, PhD Senior Project Leader NaEonal Renewable Energy Laboratory www.nrel.gov [email protected] SuEyo Siswanto Senior Manager for Hydro Energy New and Renewable Energy Division PT PLN (Persero) Head Office Milosz Mogilnicki Resident Advisor to PLN U.S. Department of the Treasury Office of Technical Assistance
Indonesia Energy Overview / Market Opportunities
Total Hydro 3,523 MW Geothermal 439 MW Steam-turbine
12,386 MW
Combined Cycle
7,704 MW
Gas-turbine 3,224 MW Diesel 3,268 MW Others 39 MW IPP 5,427 MW TOTAL 36,010 MW
Java-Bali Hydro 2,399 MW Geo 375 MW Steam-turbine
10,880 MW
Combined Cycle
6,786 MW
Gas turbine 2,114 MW Diesel 120 MW IPP 4,185 MW TOTAL 26,859 MW
NTB Diesel 141 MW Hydro 1 MW TOTAL 142 MW
NTT Diesel 53 MW Geothermal 4 MW Hydro 1 MW TOTAL 58 MW
Papua Diesel 266 MW Hydro 4 MW TOTAL 270 MW
Maluku Diesel 198 MW TOTAL 198 MW
Sulawesi Hydro 220 MW Geothermal
60 MW
Steam-turbine
100 MW
Gas-turbine
123 MW
Diesel 567 MW IPP 357 MW TOTAL 1,422 MW
Kalimantan Hydro 32 MW
Steam-turbine
201 MW
Combined Cycle
60 MW
Gas-turbine
113 MW
Diesel 969 MW Others 39 MW IPP 56 MW TOTAL 1,470 MW
Sumatera Hydro 867 MW Geothermal 0 MW Steam-turbine
1,175 MW
Combined Cycle
858 MW
Gas-turbine 874 MW Diesel 953 MW IPP 829 MW TOTAL 5,556 MW
PLN has an extensive generaHon porIolio with total installed capacity of 30,583 MW across Indonesia. PLN purchases 5,427 MW from IPPs on top of its own capacity.
Sumatera Kalimantan
Sulawesi
Maluku Papua
NTT NTB Java-‐Bali
PLN GeneraHon Network
PLN Cost of GeneraHon
Sumatera Kalimantan
Sulawesi
Maluku Papua
NTT NTB Java-‐Bali
$0.30/kWh
$0.34/kWh
$0.27/kWh
$0.28/kWh
$0.33/kWh
$0.38/kWh
Average cost of generaHon $0.12 / kWh Average electricity price $0.072 / kWh Cost of generaHon in insolated areas can be up to $0.45/kWh
$9.7 Billion Electricity Subsidy
$0.40/kWh
OpportuniHes -‐ Cost Savings
Other Benefits: • Scalability -‐ RE systems are scalable thus applicable for use as
distribuHve generaHon for remote and isolated grids, where convenHonal energy is too expensive (diesel) or too big (coal)
• Power security -‐ lower dependence on oil
Cost of GeneraHon in remote area $0.35 LCOE for RE systems* $0.07-‐$0.25 Cost of GeneraHon Savings $$$
* Based on GOI FiT and other incenHves
OpportuniHes -‐ Resources
Renewable Energy Resources PotenHal PLN Planned Capacity
1
Hydro
75 GW
624 MW
Mini -‐ Hydro 418 MW
Micro -‐ Hydro 186 MW
2 Solar Pv 4,80 kWh/m2/day 22 MW
3 Wind 3 – 6 m/s 1.87 MW
4 Ocean 49 GW 0,01 MW
6 Geothermal 29 GW 1.2 GW
7 Biomass/Biogass 49 GW 500 MW
ICED’s Project Pipeline Sites (as of December 2013)
SERIG Project Broad ObjecHves
ü Demonstrate the value of RE/EE technology soluEons that enable economically sustainable energy market alternaEves
ü Support the development of a naEonal-‐level policy framework to foster private investment in RE throughout remote areas
ü Mobilize private investment in RE and EE projects, parEcularly by working to foster market potenEal for companies
ü Leverage and promote further engagement with exisEng clean energy efforts in Indonesia
ü Develop a replicaEon plan for accelerated RE and EE deployment across hundreds of other remote grids in Indonesia.
Demonstrate business cases for high-‐penetraEon renewable energy and energy efficient technologies to replace diesel generaEon on selected islands and remote
grids
Project RaHonale and ObjecHves
Ra#onale: § High cost of diesel powered electricity esp. for remote island grids and
relaEvely low levels of electrificaEon § Clean energy and energy efficiency and GHG goals § Rapidly expanding market potenEal for clean energy technologies § Access to renewable energy resources § Significant internaEonal investment in RE and EE
A few of the challenges: § NaEonal subsidies for diesel fuel § Detailed site-‐specific resource data § RE technology supply chain and experEse in remote locaEons § Capacity building – operaEon and maintenance of RE systems § Accessibility of island grids
Indonesia
Indonesia has the 4th largest popula>on in the world, and a rapidly expanding economy with na>onal goals and policies to increase access to electricity while also increasing usage of renewable energy.
Site Selection
Diesel Plant Sites Throughout Indonesia
(~900 sites)
PLN's 4 Preferred Provinces (~200 sites)
Desktop Study (19 sites)
Stakeholder ConsultaEon (10 sites)
Site Visits
(5 sites)
Final SelecEon (2-‐3 Sites)
Selection Process
2 provinces selected for Feasibility Analysis: Central Kalimantan and East Nusa Tenggara
Sample Criteria: 1. Cost of electricity 2. Local government
support 3. PotenEal for replicaEon 4. ElectrificaEon RaEo
SelecEon Process: 1. PLN prioriEes 2. Regional desktop study (data availability) 3. Stakeholder consultaEon 4. Site visit/survey
Lamandau – Central Kalimantan
Population: 70,000
Electrification Ratio: 36.4%
Diesel Consumption (PLTD AMP): 4.8 Million Litres/yr
RE resources: solar/hydro/bioenergy
Sabu Island – East Nusa Tenggara Population: 67,000
Electrification Ratio: 41.7%
Diesel Consumption: 1.3 Million Litres/yr
Primary RE resources: wind/solar Substantial off-grid PV
SUMBA – Iconic Island IniHaHve
Financing OpHon Overview Technology Ownership ExecuEon Method Financing SERIG LocaEon Key Comments
Solar PV Private Sector Requires tender from PLN
Equity (developer or private) and debt (Banks)
Lamandau and Sabu Island
• Requires PLN to issue tender • Private developers are likely only
interested in large projects • Development bank loans could be
possible for large projects also.
Solar PV PLN PLN investment afer request from regional office
PLN budget or development bank loan
Lamandau and Sabu Island
• Obtaining budget from PLN for large solar projects appears unlikely
• Development bank loan for solar already underway and requires a large (~$100M) transacHon
Biogas Private Sector Standard power purchase agreement (PPA)
Palm Oil Mills (if they own the project) Developer Owned-‐ Equity (developer or private) and debt (Banks)
Lamandau
• Likely strong financial return based on other studies
• Mature industry in Malaysia • Will require coordinaHon between
Mills, local government, and PLN
Wind Private Sector Standard PPA Equity (developer or private) and debt (Banks)
Sabu Island • InstallaHon and maintenance
challenges due to remote locaHon / lack of local capacity
Power lines PLN Likely a tender afer funding is obtained and PLN approves
Could be local government, PLN, grant, or developer but will need to be operated by PLN
Lamandau and Sabu Island
• Required for biogas and wind projects as resources are far from the exisHng grids
• No clear mechanism to fund these components
Hybrid system components PLN
Likely a tender afer funding is obtained and PLN approves
Could be local government, PLN, grant, or developer. Needs to be operated by PLN
Lamandau and Sabu Island
• Will be required for some renewable energy diesel hybrid systems No clear mechanism to fund these components.
Off-‐grid systems Village Coordinate with district and village governments
Grant from central government ministry or donor organizaHon
Lamandau and Sabu Island
• Appears to be a large need here but not clear if this fits with project and repeatability would be limited since it would be grant dependent
Opportunities & Challenges
OpportuniEes:
• Infrastructure needs to support rapid economic growth.
• High electricity demand growth of about 8.5 % annually.
• Abundant Renewable energy potenHal: 13 GW new RE plants planned through 2021; 47% expected to be developed by IPPs.
Challenges: • RegulaHons and permits • Funding • Planning and Pricing policy • Environment and social issues • Grid stability issues • HR -‐ Capacity building
Thank you
Brian Hirsch, PhD Senior Project Leader
NaHonal Renewable Energy Laboratory [email protected]
907-‐299-‐0268
www.nrel.gov
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