Indigenous Climate Forecasting Services for Improved Adaptation: The Case of Borana Herders,
Southern Ethiopia
Desalegn September 1-4/2014
Presentation outline 1. Title
2. Background and Justification
3. Purpose of the Research
4. Research site and Methodology
5. Findings of the research
Abiotic and Biotic climate forecasting system
Forecast information dissemination
Herders attitude to Indigenous forecasting services
Socioeconomic preparations
Background and Justification
Indigenous climate forecasting system is dynamic and is
built on observation and long years of experience
(Ziervogel et al., 2010)
Different cultures make use of biotic and or abiotic
indicators to forecast about the future climate conditions
However, studies show that in recent years the vitality of
indigenous climate forecasting mechanisms is declining
Purpose of the Research
• This research assess the nature of biotic and
abiotic Borana climate forecasting systems
• Evaluate the precision and credibility of different indigenous climate forecasting systems
Study area Cont’
Methodology Data source and method of Collection
•Interview of indigenous forecast experts,
•FGD with selected herders
•Overt observation and animal entrails Diagnose
•Survey selected households
•NMSA rainfall data
Method of analysis
• thematic content analysis was employed
•Drought assessment method that developed by Agnew
& Chappel (1999)
Abiotic and Biotic Climate Forecast indicators
In Borana climate forecast is made using
• Plant body language readings
• Animal body language readings
• Intestinal reading
• Celestial body readings
In all forecasting systems there is no special ritual
activity or any food or sexual restrictions
Mode of acquiring the Climate Forecasting Skill
• Making climate forecast based on star alignment and
intestinal reading requires exceptional observation
and interpretation skill and Knowledge
• Urgi Elaltu and Uchu teach the skill to their eldest son
as they received it from their fathers
• The skill transfer is preserve only for men
Abiotic Climate Forecasting Indicators
• Traditional astrologists are able to forecast the upcoming
rainfall onset, cessation and volume at different time
scale i.e. ranging from a week –three years Using
celestial bodies observations
• Forecasting is based on some stars (alignment, apparent
movement, size and appearance)
• The color of the sun, cloud cover, temperature and wind
Star-Moon Alignment
Astrological Alignment
Biotic Indicators :Animal body language
• A future drought is forecasted if cattle display the
following behaviors
• If they become calm, sleep in the pen very close to
one another, bulls lack interest in mating and isolate
• E.g. If they show normal sexual desire and the bull
visits many cows within a short period of time, they
lick each other’s body
Biotic Indicators :Animal body language Con’t
• The behavior of wild animals and insects such
as activities of termites and squirrel (Tuka),
seasonal migration of bees, the varying tones of
hyena screaming and bird song also used for
climate forecasting
Biotic Indicators :Plant body language
Figure 1 Tedecha (acacia) tree
Figure 2 Ret (Aloe) tree
Intestinal Reading
System of Disseminating Climate Forecasts
• The Urgi Elaltus and Uchus are in charge of
forecasting climate and disseminating
information, but do not have an obligation to
do so and are not paid
• The Urgi Elaltus and Uchus communicates
climate information to community elders and
heads of Geda who then disseminate it by
summoning people for urgent meetings
System of Disseminating Climate Forecasts Cont’
• Alternatively, information is announced in market
places, water points and village settlements
• Interested people can personally go to the houses of
experts and ask for climate information so that their
contacts can receive and transfer the same
information
• DAs and NGOs also disseminate the forecast
information
Socio-Economic Preparations in View of Expected Drought
• They stop sawing crops for a harvesting year
• Strengthen area enclosure through community bylaw
• Saving water and grass
• Storing hay
• Migrating with animals (water and pasture)
• Destocking animals
• Changing reduce expenditure and schedules for social
and cultural festivities such as wedding
• Individual and group praying
Herders attitude about ICFS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Wake feta Christian Muslim
Right practiceWrong practice
The Credibility of Traditional Climate Forecasting
• The precision and credibility of all modes of
traditional climate forecast steadily declining due to
repeated faulty predictions
• However, still there are Elaltus’ who commands
high respect among the Borana herders (e.g. Kalicha
Qoncher)
• The number of traditional climate forecaster
(experts) have decreased over time in their localities
Comparison of forecasting and level of mismatches with Recorded data drought assessment
Match Mismatch
Abiotic indicator forecast vs. instrumental record 50% 50%
Biotic indicator forecast vs. instrumental record 21.5% 78.5%
Between abiotic and biotic indicators forecasts 60.7% 39.3%
Socio-Economic Preparations in View of Expected Drought
• They stop sawing crops for a harvesting year
• Strengthen area enclosure through community bylaw
• Saving water and grass
• preparing livestock medicine
• Store hay
• Migrating with animals (water and pasture)
• Destocking animals
• Changing schedules for social and cultural festivities
such as wedding or reduce expenditure
• Individual and group praying
Recommendation
• Before traditional climate forecasting
completely disappears, a remedial action
should be carried out to prevent irreversible
loss of intangible cultural heritage
• The scientific community, the government
and other stakeholders should examine the
main causes for the declining quality of
indigenous climate forecasting practices.
Thank You !
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