Impacts of Czech brown coal mines enlargement: assessment by energy model TIMES-CZ
69TH SEMI-ANNUAL ETSAP MEETING
Lukáš Rečka [email protected]
Cork, 30th May, 2016
Agenda
• Motivation
• TIMES-CZ model
• Model Structure
• Scenarios
• Results
• Sensitivity analysis
• Conclusions
• Planned extension of the model
Motivation
Gross electricity production by resource and gross electricity consumption in
the Czech Republic in 1993-2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
TW
h
Wind
Biogas
Solar
Hydro
Biomass
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Other
Brown coal/lignite
Hard coal
Gross electricity consumption
Source: Eurostat
Assess the impacts of possible extension of Czech brown coal mines on Czech energy system
• 4 scenarios to assess the ‘breaking’ of the territorial ecological limits (TEL)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PJ
Planned mining of Brown coal
TEL4
TEL3
TEL2
TEL1
Source: Eurostat
TIMES-CZ
Model of the Czech Energy System including the whole energy ballance
• based on Czech region of TIMES-PanEU
• Updated from 2010 to 2012 data
• ETS sectors disagreated on plant level (except Iron and Steel industry)
• Non-ETS sectors as in TIMES-PanEU
• time horizon 2012-2050
• 5 year periods
• ETS sectors: plant-level data of fuel use, emissions and electricity/heat generated
• District heating partly regionalized
• RES potentials based on State Energy Policy (SEP)
• Reserves of brown coal according to 4 variants of territorial ecological limits
• Capital costs of new technologies based on DIW (2013)
• Fuel cost base on World Energy Outlook 2014
PES
BC reserves
BC Imp./Exp.
Ele
ctr
icit
y
Co
ke
Dis
tric
t h
ea
t
Naft
a
Ga
so
lin
e
Ga
s
Ste
am
Households
BC heating
Gas heating
BM heating
ELC heating
Gas water boiler
District heating
Elc. water boiler
Elc. heat pump
Oil reserves
Oil Import
HC reserves
HC Imp./Exp.
Gas reserves
Gas Import
Biomass
potential
PV, CSP &
thermosolar
potential
Conversion
Sector
Coal processing
Refinery
Heat & Power
generation
Individual ETS sources
Residual heat plants
Nuclear power plants
Residual autoproducers
RES
Electrolysis
Gasisfication Liquefication
Gas processing
Ga
s
Bio
ma
ss
HC
BC
Oil
Win
d
Wa
rm w
ate
r
Ro
om
he
at
Wa
rm w
ate
r
Ro
om
he
at
Pro
ce
s. h
ea
t
LH
2
Commercial Room heat boilers
Process heat boilers
Warm water boilers
Industry
Transport Road
Road - freight
Rail - passanger
Rail - freight
Wind
potential
TIMES-CZ Structure
Scenarios 1) 4 scenarios based on SEP to assess the ‘breaking’ of the
territorial ecological limits (TEL) only
• Main trends according to State Energy Policy (SEP)
• Electricity production, RES, Nuclear, price of EU ETS - up to 40€/CO2t
2) + Relax assuption on Nuclear
3) + Relax assuption on RES
• RES potentials increased according to RES Chamber
Wind Biomas PV Water Geothermal Total
Twh 18.3 22 12.7 2.7 9.7 66
1) Results – Brown coal consumption & mining
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PJ
TEL 3&4 Domestic demand
TEL 2 Domestic demand
TEL 1 Domestic demand
TEL4
TEL3
TEL2
TEL1
1) Results – Electricity production by source
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
100 0002
01
5
20
25
20
35
20
45
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
15
20
25
20
35
20
45
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
TEL 1 TEL 2 TEL 3 TEL 4
GW
h
Nuclear
RES
Gas
Brown coal
Hard coal
Other
2) Results – Electricity production by source
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
100 0002
01
5
20
25
20
35
20
45
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
15
20
25
20
35
20
45
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
TEL 1 TEL 2 TEL 3 TEL 4
GW
h
Nuclear
RES
Gas
Brown coal
Hard coal
Other
3) Results – Electricity production by source
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
100 0002
01
5
20
25
20
35
20
45
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
15
20
25
20
35
20
45
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
TEL 1 TEL 2 TEL 3 TEL 4
GW
h
Nuclear
RES
Gas
Brown coal
Hard coal
Other
Sensitivity analysis
• TEL 2 – the selected ‚breaking‘ of TEL
• 3 fuel price assumption sets, 4 EUA price scenarios
• 3 scenarios of nuclear development
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Ha
rd c
oa
l
Na
tura
l ga
s
Oil
Bro
wn
co
al - C
zech
Bro
wn
co
al - im
po
rt
Ha
rd c
oa
l
Na
tura
l ga
s
Oil
Bro
wn
co
al - C
zech
Bro
wn
co
al - im
po
rt
Ha
rd c
oa
l
Na
tura
l ga
s
Oil
Bro
wn
co
al - C
zech
Bro
wn
co
al - im
po
rt
WEO-450 Weighted WEO-Cur-pol.
€/G
J
Fuel price assumptions €/GJ
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
€/tC
O2
EUA price scenarios
SEP
WEO-Cur-pol.
WEO-450
Low
Sensitivity analysis – share of electricity a) Nuclear, Brown coal, Water, Wind and PV
Nuclear as SEP
Nuclar - phase out Dukovany 2027
Nuclear - no new PP
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Lignite SEP Water Wind
Lignite WEO-450 Lignite WEO-Cur.Policy Lignite Cur.Policy-low
Lignite EUA-low Lignite Cur.Pol-NoNew PV
Lignite Cur.Pol-NoNew+DU Lignite SEP-NoNew Lignite SEP-NoNew+DU
Sensitivity analysis – share of electricity b) Nuclear as in SEP – Hard coal, Nature gas and Biomas
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Hardcoal SEP Natral gas SEP Bimass & Biogas SEP
Hardcoal WEO-450 Natral gas WEO-450 Bimass & Biogas WEO-450
Hardcoal WEO-Cur.Policy Natral gas WEO-Cur.Policy Bimass & Biogas WEO-Cur.Policy
Hardcoal Cur.Policy-low Natral gas Cur.Policy-low Bimass & Biogas Cur.Policy-low
Hardcoal EUA-low Natral gas EUA-low Bimass & Biogas EUA-low
Sensitivity analysis – share of electricity c) No new Nuclear – Hard coal, Nature gas and Biomas
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Hardcoal Cur.Pol-NoNew Natral gas Cur.Pol-NoNew
Bimass & Biogas Cur.Pol-NoNew Hardcoal Cur.Pol-NoNew+DU
Natral gas Cur.Pol-NoNew+DU Bimass & Biogas Cur.Pol-NoNew+DU
Hardcoal SEP-NoNew Natral gas SEP-NoNew
Bimass & Biogas SEP-NoNew Hardcoal SEP-NoNew+DU
Natral gas SEP-NoNew+DU Bimass & Biogas SEP-NoNew+DU
Conclusions
• ‘breaking’ of the territorial ecological limits does not have significant affect of Czech energy system
• If SEP assuptions are fullfilled
• If higher installlation of RES is allowed - according to
Czech RES chamber assuption
• Approximately 3 mil. t of brown coal would need to be
imported in case of not ‘breaking’ of the territorial ecological limits
• RES are at least competetive with nuclear sources at EUA price at 40€
• Sensitivity analysis shows fuel switch btw Hard coal and Natural gas
Planned extension of the model
Disaggregate Steel and Iron industry on EU ETS plant level
Elasticity of demand
Load curve with higher time resolution - up to hourly profiles
Electricity storage
Better regionalization of heat supply and demand
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