Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity (and Public Health) in
Taiwan Pei-Fen Lee
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North South North South Roads 36000 Km 2 68% vegetated
cover
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Elevation vs. Latitude
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Long-term Prediction and Short-term Monitoring Long-term
Species distribution database Environmental database Species
distribution models Future projection from IPCC data Change in
species distribution Short-term Alpine bird distribution (Yushan
National Park)
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Finch-billed Bulbul Finch-billed Bulbul ( ) Species
distribution data
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Species Distribution Models Logistic regression Discriminant
function analysis Artificial neural network (ANN) Cummulative
distribution function Genetic algorithm (GARP) MaxEnt
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From Occurrence to Probability White-eared Sibia
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Presence Maps Bufo melanosticus Microhyla inomata
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Climate Change Scenario RSM2 for 2100 (15 x 15 Km grid) CO 2
concentration expected to be doubled IPCC data (1 x 1 Km grid)
Species Breeding birds (117 species, 75%) Amphibians (24 species,
73%) Freshwater fishes (25 species, 42%)
202020502100 CMA - A2 Suitable Habitats for Fairy Pitta
20-25C
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Current 2020 2050 2100 Taiwan Yuhina Taiwan Yuhina: change in
distribution due to climate change Reduced suitable habitat Moving
toward higher elevation Dramatic change between 2050 and 2100
Suitable
Decreasing-distribution: Decreasing-distribution: Taiwan Yuhina
Increasing-distribution: Increasing-distribution: Taiwan Hwamei 15
species 2 species
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Breeding Birds: change in species richness CurrentUnder RSM2 In
2100
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Breeding birds: Breeding birds: change in species richness
Decrease in low- elevation & mid-elevation Increase in high-
elevation
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Amphibians: change in species richness Current RSM2
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Amphibians Amphibians: change in species richness Due to low
dispersal ability, most frog species show local contraction in
distribution Fragmentation
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Freshwater Fish: change in richness Current RSM2
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Freshwater Fish Negative impact: Low-mid elevation Positive
impact: High elevation
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Monitoring from 1922 to 2011 3100-3700 m in elevation in Yushan
National Park
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Breeding Bird Monitoring 1992, 2006 & 2009-2011
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Vegetation types Vegetation zoneElevation range (m) Climatic
zoneAnnual mean temperature range (C) Alpine
zone38003952Subarctic< 4 Juniper shrub36003800Subarctic45 Fir
forests31003600Coldtemperate58 Hemlock
forests27003100Cooltemperate810 Spruce
forests25002700Cooltemperate1011 Mixed forests23002500Temperate1112
Upper Quercus zone 20002300Temperate1214 Lower Quercus zone
15002000Warmtemperate1417 Machilus Castanopsis zone
5001500Subtropical1723
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Population density (#/ha) Population density (#/ha): 1992, 2006
and 2009 High-elevation species Mid-elevation species 13
Species199220062009Trend Alpine Accentor11.354.424.95Down
Wren58.6437.5621.90Down Vinaceus Rose Finch37.356.227.96Down
Formosan Laughing Thrush40.215.193.01Down Johustens Bush
Robin27.3611.948.66Down Formosan
Firecrest144.3781.57132.10Uncertain White-browed Bush
Robin11.9416.7111.97Uncertain Yellow-bellied Bush
Warbler20.068.9513.13Uncertain Beavans
Bullfinch0.325.091.02Uncertain Coal Tit14.905.579.93Uncertain
Streak-throated Fulvetta40.5567.2090.54Up Orange
Parrotbill0.003.9819.10Up Nuthatch0.00 5.66Up
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Population Trend Density Decreasing: 5 high-elevation species
Uncertain: 5 Increasing: 3 mid-elevation species 31 Wren Formosan
Firecrest Streak-throated Fulvetta
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Upper distribution limit (m) Species19922009Change Alpine
Accentor3602361210 Wren3438 0 Vinaceus Rose Finch3438351374
Formosan Laughing Thrush34473438-9 Johustens Bush Robin3438349254
Formosan Firecrest3338342284 White-browed Bush Robin31823454272
Yellow-bellied Bush Warbler3338343496 Beavans Bullfinch3180320020
Coal Tit3223330380 Streak-throated Fulvetta32583401143 Orange
Parrotbill3200? Nuthatch3200?
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Changes between 1992 and 2009 2009 vs. 1992 Change in mean
elevation (m)+42.9 Change in mean upper limit (m)+33.7
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Community pattern Biodiversity increase in high elevation
34
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Temperature Change Summer Winter
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Decrease in snow days 1992 40 days 2006 11 days
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Dongsha Atoll National Park South China Sea
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Climate Change Impacts Under climate change, many species are
expected to suffer a reduction in habitable area Because smaller
areas support smaller populations, species extinction risk is
expected to increase
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Climate Change Impacts Short-term change observed in Yushan
National Park is similar to those predicted in long-term
distribution trend Protected areas may turn out to be in the wrong
place in the shifting template of temperature and moisture
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Climate Change Impacts Ecological disturbance in human
dominated areas Reduced species richness More pests and unwanted
grass species Potential public health problem E.g., dengue
fever
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Dengue Trend in Southern Taiwan 2002
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Dengue and Precipitation 2002/6/1
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Dengue case distribution Only concentrated in certain
districts
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Dengue and Urban Development Older community Rural region City
and county junction Low biodiversity and potentially less managed
areas
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Bio-indicators for Climate Change Different species groups
Bird, amphibian, fish, barnacle Different ecosystems (spatial)
Urban, coastal, high mountain Different temporal scales Month,
season, year, decade,
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Barnacle distribution 21 species
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nMDS plot
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Barnacle distribution Species occurrence Abundance