Evaluation of pollution levels of lead and PCB-153 over Central Asian (CA) countries within CAPACT
project (preliminary results)
Ilia Ilyin, EMEP/MSC-E
EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Expected results
Evaluation of air concentrations and total depositions of lead and PCBs over CA countries
Contributions of regions of the Northern Hemisphere to pollution of CA countries by PCBs and contribution of CA countries to the pollution of other regions. Вклады различных регионов
Evaluation of transboundary pollution of CA countries by lead
EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan
EMEP reion
Regional model Extent – EMEP region Resolution – 50×50 км2
Hemispheric model Extent – Northern
Hemisphere Resolution – 2.5°×2.5°
Model versions
EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Multicompartment MSCE-POP model
Atmosphere
Underlying surface
Gusev A., Mantseva E., Shatalov V., and Strukov B. 2005. Regional Multicompartment Model MSCE-POP 5/2005
Detailed desription:
EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Emissions of PCB-153 in 2005
Breivik et al, 2007., Science of the Total Environ., 377, p. 296-307.
Input data
EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan
PCB-153 emissions in different regions of the Northern Hemisphere in 2005
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Eu
rop
e
Am
eri
cas
Ru
ssia
So
uth
-Ea
st. A
sia
Afr
ica
So
urt
h-W
est
. A
sia
Ce
ntr
al A
sia
t /
y
Input data
America
Africa
Russia
Europe
South-Eastern Asia
South-Western
AsiaКазахстан
EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Annual mean air concentrations of PCB-153 in 2005
Model results
EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Depositions of PCB-153 in 2005
Model results
EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Planned: evaluation of transboundary pollution for each of Central Asia countries
Transboundary pollution of Kazakhstan by PCB-153
America
Africa
Russia
Europe
South-Eastern Asia
South-Western
AsiaКазахстан
America4% Africa
1%South-
West. Asia15%
Kazahstan21%
Russia1%
South-East. Asia
26%
Europe32%
EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Main processes in MSCE-HM model
Processes:
• Advection • Turbulent diffusion• Wet removal• Dry depositions• Chemical transformations in the atmosphere (Hg)• Wind re-suspension
Detailed description:Travnikov O. and Ilyin I., 2005. Regional model MSCE-HM of heavy metaltransboundary air pollution in Europe. EMEP/MSC-E Technical report 6/2005
EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Uzbekistan
Turkmenistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
1 1111
135
EMEP calculation domain
EMEP domain
EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Extension of EMEP calculation domain to cover CA countries within CAPACT
1 1591
135
Extended calculation domain Preparation
of input data:
•Land-cover
•Meteorology
•EmissionsKazakhstan
Uzbekistan
Turkmenistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Emissions of lead in Europe and Central Asia in 2005
Region Data sourceAdditional assumptions
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan
TNO’2005Interpolation between 2000 and 2010
Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan
GEIA (1990)Reduction rate from 1990 to 2005 - as for Russia
EuropeOfficial EMEP data of TNO estimates
Remaining Asia and Africa
GEIA (1990)Reduction rate from 1990 to 2005 - as for Turkey
Input data
EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Total emission of lead in Central Asian countries in 2005
Input data
EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
EM
EP
(wit
ho
ut
Re
ma
inin
gA
sia
Ru
ss
ia
Ka
zak
hs
tan
Uzb
ek
ista
n
Ta
jik
ista
n
Tu
rkm
en
ista
n
Ky
rgy
zsta
n
t/y
Spatial distribution of lead emissions in 2005
Input data
EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Wind re-suspension Anthropogenic emissions
~ 970 t/y ~ 840 t/y
Comparison of emissions from anthropogenic sources and wind re-
suspension in Central Asian countries (Pb)
Input data
EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Annual mean concentrations of lead in air in 2005
Modelling results
EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Air concentrations of lead
Total emissions of lead (anthrop. and
wind re-suspension)
Modelling results
EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Total depositions of lead in 2005
Modelling results
EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Transboundary pollution in Central Asia
Contributions of different sources to depositions in Kazakhstan
Modelling results
EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Transboundary pollution in Central Asia
Contributions of different sources to depositions in Kyrgyzstan
Modelling results
EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Transboundary pollution in Central Asia
Contributions of different sources to depositions in Tajikistan
Modelling results
EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Transboundary pollution in Central Asia
Contributions of different sources to depositions in Turkmenistan
Modelling results
EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Transboundary pollution in Central Asia
Contributions of different sources to depositions in Uzbekistan
Modelling results
EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Modification of MSCE-HM model to include Central Asian countries into modelling domain
Completed
Preparation of input data for the modified MSCE-HM model
Completed
Calculations of mean annual concentrations of lead and depositions for 2005
Preliminary results
Estimation of annual transboundary transport of lead within CA region for 2005
Preliminary results
EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Current status and future plans
Evaluation of mean annual concentrations of PCB-153 in air and total annual depositions over CA region for 2005
Preliminary results
Evaluation of annual transboundary transport of PCB-153 within CA region in 2005
Preliminary results for Kazakhstan
Report in Russian and English; Publishing in the Internet at MSC-E site (www.msceast.org)
September 15
EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan
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