IAM contribution to the global stock take
Detlef van Vuuren
with input from: Keywan Riahi, Volker Krey, Heleen van Soest, Elmar Kriegler, Jae Edmonds
The Paris Agreement of 2015
• Adopted by consensus on 12 December 2015; (Entered into force 4 November 2016)
• A global goal: “Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels”
• But the (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) form main mean of implementation
Article 14“The Conference of the Parties … shall periodically take stock of the implementation of this Agreement to assess the collective progress towards achieving the purpose of this Agreement and its long-term goals (referred to as the ‘global stocktake’)”
Source: http://www.carbon‐m
echanisms.de/en/introduction/the‐
paris‐agreement‐and‐article‐6/
• First “test” stocktake in 2018… Talanoa dialogue• For 1,5 deg C difference 2018 – 2023 is crucial• Countries are now formulating their mid-century strategies
First Global Stocktake in 2023 and every five years thereafter; they will assesss progress towards achieving the overall objectives. • Inform Parties in updating and enhancing their NDCs• Intended to increase ambition
• Oriented around three questions:• Where are we?• Where do we want to go?• How do we get there?
• Input 1.5 deg C report and evidence via the portal (stocktake gets IPCC AR report)• Intention stimulate to further enhance ambition, no name calling• Integrated assessment models can contribute to this process
National low‐carbon developmentpathways
Global transformationpathways
Talanoa dialogueCD‐LINKS – Funded under EU Horizon 2020 (Global and national teams)COMMIT – Funded by DG Climate (Global and national teams)Stocktake activities coordinated by ClimateWorksRIPPLES – Funded under EU Horizon 2020 (oriented mostly at European Countries)UNEP – Gap report….
Obviously not a new question…..
Source: Fawcett, et al. Science, 2015.
How can we contribute
• Global pathways consistent with the overall objective (where do want to go?)
• Assessment of the total contribution of national policies, NDCs and MCSs (where are we?)
• Assessment of the gap (where are we?)• Comparison of work at the global and national level (where are we?)
• Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?)
…..
How can we contribute• Global pathways consistent with the overall objective (where do want to go?)
Peak in 2020
Steepemissionsreduction
Carbon neutrality Net CO2
removal
Re‐directing investmentsfrom fossils to low carbonand efficiency solutions
Power sector decarbonizationCoal phase‐out
Carbon neutral economyElectrification of end usesChallenges: • Freight transport,
aviation, shipping• Heavy industry
Compensate residual emissions(incl. agricultural N2O emissions)Compensate budget overshoot
Luderer et al. (2018) Residual fossil CO emissions in 1.5–2oC pathways. Nature Climate Change
How can we contribute
• Global pathways consistent with the overall objective (where do want to go?)
• Assessment of the total contribution of national policies, NDCs and MCSs (where are we?)
• Assessment of the gap (where are we?)• Comparison of work at the global and national level (where are we?)
• Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?)
…..
How can we contribute• Assessment of the total contribution of national policies, NDCs and MCSs
(where are we?)
Climate Policy Database• www.climatepolicydatabase.org
• Aim: open, collaborative platform to gather all climate-related policies, with full geographical and sectoral coverage.
• Platform: Semantic Media Wiki, an open-source, database driven extension of MediaWiki
• Niklas Höhne: [email protected] [email protected]
How can we contribute• Assessment of the total contribution of national policies, NDCs and MCSs
(where are we?)
20
40
60
2020 20302010
Baseline
Current policies
NDCs
1.5 °C
2 °C
‐6%
‐17%
‐40%
‐50%
Emissions (G
tCO2‐eq
)
• Assessment of the gap (where are we?)
• Current policies reduce GHGs by 3.5 GtCO2‐eq [2.0 to 5.5]
• Policies fall short of NDCs: 11.2 [7.0‐7.0] GtCO2eq.
• Gap with : • 2°C : 23.7 [9.0‐37.4]
GtCO2eq. • 1.5°C : 30.3 [17.1 to 43.0]
GtCO2eq.
How can we contribute
• Global pathways consistent with the overall objective (where do want to go?)
• Assessment of the total contribution of national policies, NDCs and MCSs (where are we?)
• Assessment of the gap (where are we?)• Comparison of work at the global and national level (where are we?)
• Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?)
…..
How can we contribute• Comparison of work at the global and national level (where are we?)
Regional carbon budgets (2010-2050)
In all regions large gap between 1.5/2 and current policies
Further strengthening needed in all countries
Some countries close to meeting NDC, but those have larger gaps with Paris target scenarios
How can we contribute• Comparison of work at the global and national level (where are we?)
How can we contribute
• Global pathways consistent with the overall objective (where do want to go?)
• Assessment of the total contribution of national policies, NDCs and MCSs (where are we?)
• Assessment of the gap (where are we?)• Comparison of work at the global and national level (where are we?)
• Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?)
…..
How can we contribute• Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?)
2oC pathways
2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
Gt C
O2/
year
NDCs Good Practice Net Zero Cost−effective pricing
Kriegler et al. (2018) Short term policies to keep the door open for Paris climate goals. Env. Res. Lett.
Policy packages include• Renewable energy quotas
• Restrictions on new coal and gas power plants w/o CCS
• Energy efficiency improvements in industry and buildings
• Upscaling of industry CCS
• Fuel efficiency improvements in road transport and aviation
• Increase of electric vehicle share
• More efficient use of nitrogen in agriculture
• Eliminating deforestation and 10 mio ha/yr afforestation
• Moderate carbon pricing
How can we contribute• Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?)
Kriegler et al. (2018) Short term policies to keep the door open for Paris climate goals. Env. Res. Lett.
How can we contribute• Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?)
How can we contribute• Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?)
USA EU Japan Russia
BrazilIndiaChina
Van den Berg et al., under embargo
How can we contribute• Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?)
co-benefitadverse effect
Krey et al. (submitted) – under embargo, do not citeMitigation risks
Mitigation co-benefits
http://www.cd-links.org
How to strengthen this role?
• Dialogue workshops between IAM modellers and policy makers and otherstakeholders
• Cooperation with other research communities (transition sciences)• Service scenarios (annual updates)• Focus more on the opportunities/obstacles at the national level
This project has received funding from the European Union’sHorizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grantagreement No 642147 (CD‐LINKS).
ClimateWorks and UMD
• Starting to explore the idea of an independent Global Stocktake
• 1st scoping workshop in Bonn, May 9 of 2018
• Initial meetings focus on assessing interest
• Multiple interests and sensitivities
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