I have $5 Million to spend onGearbox Maintenance this year.How should I spend it?Sentient Science Webinar Series
04/15/2023
Presenter
Stephen SteenHead of Industrial Internet Services
04/15/2023
How Should I Spend It?
How do I spend money to insure energy availability?
How to I balance spending for both immediate GBX availability and long term fleet value?
How do I get the best pricing on GBX replacement inventory?
How to I make sure I won’t break the bank – spending above OPEX ceilings?
How do I engage financial managers when budgeting uses historic O&M data instead of future projections?
What’s a Manager to Do?
I have $5 Million to Spend on Gearbox Maintenance this Year. How Should I Spend
it?
04/15/2023
How Should I Spend It?
• Planned preventative maintenance (PPM) costs versus Predictive health maintenance (PHM)
• What’s the needed planning horizon?
PPM vs. PHM
Past
DIAGONSTICS
Future
PROGNOSTICS
• Diagnostics versus Prognostics
• Discussion regarding risk using Prognostics
04/15/2023
How Should I Spend It?
Time
Con
diti
on
First visible detection (vibration, borescope, heat, etc.)DigitalClone Detection
DigitalClone Life Extension Decision Support
Failure/Crack Progression
Non-Visible Non-Visible Non-Visible Visible
How Does DigitalClone Work on Gearboxes?Predict Earlier & More Accurately
Not Visible Not Visible Not Visible Visible
04/15/2023
How Should I Spend It?
Worlds Most Tested Products
Products with the Lowest Cost of Operation
Where Else Is Prognostics Being Applied?
04/15/2023
How Should I Spend It?
• Region with 8-10 sites• One major wind-turbine brand
plus assorted others (acquisitions)
• Likely 600+ GBX• Majority of fleet is off-
warrantee• CBM mix in place• Starting to see increasing
number of GBX failures • Strong management pressure
(and bonus) on maintaining or reducing ANNUAL OPEX spend
• Use DigitalClone® Live as the prognostics IT system
Assumptions to Start With:
04/15/2023
How Should I Spend It?
Step 1 Develop a PHM-powered list of GBX to replace over the next 3 years,
where and when
SENTIENT SCIENCEBuffalo, NY
SENTIENT SCIENCE
04/15/2023
How Should I Spend It?
For impending damage units, De-rate 40 units and do oil changes to extend their life and get them to a planned up-tower replacement schedule
Step 2
04/15/2023
How Should I Spend It?
• Borescope those 40 machines to confirm prognostics
• Damage first noticed in Dec, 2014
• Spalling and pitting on main shaft DW tapered roller bearings, seems to be progressing
• No gear damage
Step 3
04/15/2023
How Should I Spend It?
Do 20 up-tower component replacements on units that provide the greatest ROI benefit
Step 4
04/15/2023
How Should I Spend It?
Do 8 gearbox exchanges with “upgraded” units containing upgraded bearings
Step 5
“To Be”“As Is”
04/15/2023
How Should I Spend It?
Develop upgraded energy plan to optimize energy output against extending fleet life beyond 20 years
Step 6
04/15/2023
How Should I Spend It?
Action Cost
1 Develop a PHM-powered list of GBX and components to replace over the next 3 years, where and when.
$150,000
2 De-rate 40 units and do oil changes to extend their life and get them to a planned up-tower replacement schedule.
$1,070,000
3 Borescope those 40 machines to confirm prognostics. $100,000
4 Do 20 up-tower component replacements. $1,060,000
5 Do 8 gearbox replacements with upgraded bearings. $2,070,000
6 Develop upgraded energy plan to optimize energy output against extending fleet life beyond 20 years.
$25,000
7 Cover headcount and operation. $500,000
8 Go to island for vacation. $25,000
ALL IN $5,000,000
Summary:
04/15/2023
How Should I Spend It?
• Its now possible to plan for up-tower component repairs instead of full gearbox replacement with a multi-year plan of where, when, and how many components should be replaced. Dramatic reduction in the cost of full GBX replacements
• Its now possible to plan gearbox replacement, inventory, and supply chain planning with a 10-year horizon. Better pricing and inventory availability on supplier contracts
• Its now possible to maintain a fleet using prognostics (going forward planning) instead of PPM and diagnostics only input. Better, more reliable multi-year budget planning
• Prognostics can help extend the RUL of components and gearboxes, provide better input planning, and reduce your O&M budget. Better balance between short term repair spend and long term
asset value
What Can We Learn Here?
04/15/2023
How Should I Spend It?
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