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CONTENTS NOVEMBER ‘14
5 From The Publisher
7 The Teaser
Topics that titillate the racing mind.
12 Back to Night School
Approaching a Day at the Races is our archive subject from the online national fan education program.
16 Winter in Nawlins
Brian W. Spencer provides insight into racing at Fair Grounds.
21 Questions for Caton
Caton Bredar has anchored down at Gulfstream for the winter.
25 Here Comes the Sun
Brian Nadeau offers what to look for (and how to bet) at Gulfstream.
30 Oaklawn Unveiling
Jerry Shottenkirk previews the upcoming season in Hot Springs.
35 Santa Anita Preview
SoCal’s post-Christmas present attracts Jeremy Plonk’s attention.
39 New Meadowlands
Inaugural Season at Success Ken Warkentin looks back at 2014 in the Big M’s new digs.
43 Who Pays Attention
to Quarter Horse Racing? You Should. Denis Blake gives you the cross-over from TBs to QHs.
47 December Calendar
Stakes, key dates, Race of Month
52 Galloping Out
Jeremy Plonk provides 14 things we learned in 2014.
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From the Publisher
Statistically speaking, I’ve seen a spike in many good handicappers during
the winter months of racing. We track every win and loss among our Horse Player NOW team, and I do the same for my personal play. I’m not exactly sure what it is, perhaps it’s as simple as the tracks that are running, but winter seems to be a hot time of year to play.
Our team has you dialed in for the premier race meetings of winter this month. From Gulfstream to Santa Anita to Fair Grounds and Oaklawn, we’ll preview a quartet of the biggest meets in the game. And while this doesn’t sum up all of winter’s gems – lest we forget Aqueduct and Tampa Bay Downs’ significant handle chunks – these are the meets at which we focus most of our attention and have had historically the most success.
It’s been a wonderful first season of Horse Player NOW Mag. If there are any ways we can improve the publication in 2015, please email me [email protected].
- JP
Horse Player NOW Magazine Copyright 2014
Horse Player NOW All Rights Reseved
Editor, Publisher, Designer Jeremy Plonk
Contributing Writers Caton Bredar Denis Blake
Jerry Shottenkirk Brian Nadeau
Brian W. Spencer Ken Warkentin
Photography Chief Enzina Mastrippolito (Photosbyz)
Contributing Photographers Coady Photography / Oaklawn
Hodges Photography / Fair Grounds
Adam Coglianese / NYRA Michael Lisa / Meadowlands
Dustin Orona / Remington Park
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THE TEASER:
From new light on a.m. works to foolish fantasies to Japanese snubs, eventually it will all make sense.
Working Out Workouts
Ever wonder how a first-time starter with a single reported workout contained in a past performance line could be ready to run against (and defeat) foes that have numerous breeze times listed below their names? Teaser does all the time.
And whenever one of those first-timers with just one (or even two) listed works beats him, he just shakes his head like an overworked inner-city cop as vandals shatter windows in an abandoned building. Don‟t sweat the small stuff.
The operative word in this workout nonsense is „reported,‟ and while a runner may have had just one of
those, he probably also has had several „unreported‟ breezes.
Now, before you get all hot and bothered and jump on the Internet to wail about how crooked the races are, realize this: This has been going on forever! And you are still alive. Imagine that.
It‟s understood that „official‟ clockers don‟t time horses at training centers. Why? Because no one pays to make that happen. Workout times at these facilities are reported based on the honor system. Until now, that is.
Bruno De Julio, an independent published clocker, horse owner, bloodstock agent and syndication manager, recently was denied admittance to Palm Beach Downs, a training center in Del Ray Beach.
Teaser, definition: A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion. Also, perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe.
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One thing led to another and this whole issue of „reported‟ workouts caught a good breeze in its sails and picked up some momentum. As per a Horseraceinsider.com story, the folks at Gulfstream Park have taken the baton and run with it. The Hallandale track has hired a clocker to work Palm Beach Downs and intends to hire another to time works at Payson Park, as well. These workouts will be published in past performance data.
So, there you have it: Possible full disclosure of workout information from two popular Florida training centers. Happy? Teaser‟s not.
Used to be when one of those one-work wonders flattened Teaser‟s tickets, he had a built-in excuse: “No way I can play a horse with one workout showing! Crooks!”
Now, when one of those Palm Beach or Payson runners knocks him out of the Rainbow Six, he‟ll have no one to blame but himself…and Bruno De Julio.
Fantasy Fulfilled
Can‟t do something you want to in real life? That‟s okay; you can probably do it in a fantasy world instead. Or at least have the decency to call it a fantasy world. That‟s where Monmouth Park and New Jersey are headed in a quest to legalize sports wagering.
A federal judge recently told them they can‟t take sports bets in order to boost a struggling horse racing product and to aid failing casinos; instead
Monmouth has announced it will offer fantasy sports betting.
So far, it‟s not entirely clear what „fantasy sports betting‟ might entail exactly, but if it‟s in line with what we‟ve come to know and love as „geek gambling,‟ count me in.
Traditional „fantasy sports‟ usually involve players selecting or drafting a fictional roster of professional athletes which then competes against other fictional rosters of
So far, it’s not entirely clear what ‘fantasy
sports betting’ might entail exactly, but if it’s in line with what we’ve come to know and love
as ‘geek gambling,’ count me in.
8
professional athletes on a yearly, monthly or even daily basis. Wins and losses then are established according to the amount of points scored by each roster member in real-world sporting events. Team owners pay entry or registration fees to compete and prizes to winners come in cold, hard cash.
Professional sports leagues and the NCAA are behind the federal gambling ban, but they support and sometimes even operate „fantasy sports‟ leagues.
Teaser wants to make sure he‟s got this one straight: It‟s illegal in New Jersey (and in most other states) to win or lose money based on what happens during an actual sporting event. However, it‟s also simultaneously legal to win or lose money based on what happens in an actual sporting event, as long as it involves fantasy teams composed of real players.
Say what?
Guess that‟s why there isn‟t widespread interest in fantasy
horse racing. Unlike other sports, gamblers can wager on horse racing for real!
World Super Jockeys Series…sort of
The World Super Jockeys Series, an international event launched by the Japan Racing Association in 1987, attracts top caliber jockeys from Europe, North America, Oceania and Asia for a captivating two-day, four-race series enjoyed
by fans in Japan and around the world.
The jockeys, selected for outstanding performances through the
season, ride on Japanese mounts chosen randomly by drawing. Points are awarded for each race and the jockey with the most points at the end of the second day wins. This year we welcome eight top-class jockeys from Canada, Ireland, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Australia and Hong Kong to join eight outstanding Japanese jockeys to claim this year‟s title.
So says the publicity release promoting the event.
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In the first place, Teaser hates jockey challenges. They don‟t prove a thing. While jocks are brave, incredible athletes, the sport‟s called „horse racing‟ and not „jockey racing‟ for a reason. Jocks get way too much praise when horses win and way too much blame when they lose. The little fellas are paid 10% of the purse and, according to capitalism, that‟s what the job‟s worth.
Still, this Japanese World Super Jockeys Series has Teaser bent out of shape because not one US-based jockey is involved. That‟s right, zero, zilch, nada. How is that possible? What got lost in translation?
Cash Asmussen won the inaugural event in 1987 and Jerry Bailey scored best in 1996. The top prize is $30,000 in US currency, with $20k to second and $10k to third. Sounds like a decent payday.
Perhaps no top US jock was interested in giving up stateside mounts for the weekend Nov. 29-30. After all, there are plenty ofstakes races on both coasts immediately following Thanks-giving. Maybe Series riders mainly include those who are conveniently in town for the Japan Cup?
For Teaser it‟s most palatable to imagine top US jocks declining an invitation than to think none was offered. It‟s just not right to call something the World Super Jockeys Series without including at least one Yank in the irons. - HPN
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This month’s topic of review:
DAILY APPROACH
Since 2011, Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races. Through live chats, videos and radio simulcasts, the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers. In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine, we go “Back to Night School” with a look at some of the high points of past lessons.
“Approaching a Day at the Races” has been a topic over the years in Night School and one that gets a lot of follow-up interest from both novice and more-serious players. What measures should you take in the lead up to a race and raceday? We’ll examine that and more.
All Night School archives on any subject remain available free to read, listen and view. In this “Back to Night School” edition, we’ll sample some of the best moments from the past three seasons as we have discussed “Approaching a Day at the Races.
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Let’s take a look at a few archive videos on the subject as well as a highlight from our full, 90-minute session with HRTV’s Aaron Vercruysse. Videos feature Jeremy Plonk, Tom Hammond and Bob Neumeier of NBC Sports. Click either video to view now.
Aaron Vercruysse (HRTV): Replays are a big key to success. I am also a big fan of watching trouble horses in bad races get overbet. I am old school, I love the newspaper DRF, not downloaded PPs … I’m like Linus and his blanket. I try and get my work done before I get to the races. This makes me more comfortable about the day; it is all in the attitude. Everyone that handicaps before the track has "one" horse they love. I always try to "end" a multi-race wager with my horse; it keeps you from having to play more. Racing is like fashion ... less is more. How many big bets lose and little bets win?
FULL 2011 chat transcript.
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15
As Thanksgiving approached, the
third-oldest racetrack in the
country opened its doors again
when Fair Grounds Race Course &
Slots kicked off its 143rd season of
Thoroughbred racing.
The biggest news coming into
the season was the
bombshell announcement
made by Rosie Napravnik
(pictured) that she would
not be returning to the
saddle in New Orleans, or
anywhere, for the
foreseeable future. Expecting
a child with trainer Joe Sharp and
placing family first, she opened the
door for another rider to claim top
honors this season, ending her 4-
year reign atop the standings.
Napravnik had won a third of all
graded stakes at Fair Grounds over
the last 4 years, opening up high-
end wins for the rest of the colony.
Fair Grounds always hosts a deep
jockey colony, but with the
absence of Napravnik, Shaun
Bridgmohan, and Leandro
Goncalves, there are
roughly 200 wins from
last season now up for
grabs. James Graham,
second behind
Napravnik the last three
seasons, figures to pick
up a handful of her more
lucrative mounts from Tom Amoss.
Richard Eramia rates as another
capable contender for the top spot
with his business firmly cemented
amongst the Louisiana horsemen.
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Apprentice Andre Ramgeet, barely
more than 400 rides into his
career, has been turning heads
with intelligent rides in the early
stages of the meet and could
continue to make his presence felt.
There has not been much
movement in the trainer race as
nearly all of the
big names are
back with
similarly sized
strings as years
past. Tom Amoss
and Steve
Asmussen may
once again do
battle for leading
trainer, with a roster of capable
trainers lined up to win a handful
of races as well. Louisiana-based
Eddie Johnston has a really classy
stable of nice horses who should
make plenty of noise in the
Louisiana-bred ranks.
One trainer who produced a
favorite angle of mine last season
is Wes Hawley – and it’s a timely
note given the date of publication
of this article. Last season,
Hawley’s horses looked fairly
competitive on paper in their first
starts of the meet, but it was when
his runners got around to making
their second start at the stand that
they really woke up. It felt like his
second-out runners were winning
almost by default daily, and often
at square prices. Hawley tends to
freshen his
horses for
roughly two
months prior
to the Fair
Grounds meet,
and that first
start of the
season allows
them to shake
off just enough rust to fire big
shots in December.
Many improvements have been
made throughout the facility with
extensive upgrades on the
backstretch coupled with the
replacement of nearly 1,700 feet of
drainage pipes underneath the turf
course. While those improvements
were cause for cautious optimism
for the upcoming meet, there is
still a place at Fair Grounds where
One trainer who produced a
favorite angle of mine last
season is Wes Hawley – and it’s
a timely note given the date of
publication of this article.
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hope always springs eternal – the
road to the Louisiana Derby.
Improving 3-year olds will get a
chance to go long in allowance
company in late December to
prove their worthiness to take a
shot in the Grade III Lecomte on
January 17. The Grade II Risen
Star on February 21 provides a
final local chance to punch a ticket
into the $750,000 Grade II
Louisiana Derby to be held on the
penultimate day of the meet,
March 28. The lesson may have
been learned by the public by now,
but pay attention to whether or not
trainer Dallas Stewart sends a
Louisiana Derby also-ran to the
Kentucky Derby. Two years in a
row such a horse has crashed the
exacta behind the victorious race
favorite: Golden Soul, second to
Orb at 34-1 in 2013, and
Commanding Curve, second to
California Chrome at 37-1 this year.
While the boys will get most of the
publicity with clear Kentucky Derby
implications, perhaps the most
important race in determining
future success over the years has
been the Grade II Fair Grounds
Oaks. With six of the last 10 Fair
Grounds Oaks winners having gone
on to glory in the Kentucky Oaks,
there has not been a more
productive or important Oaks prep
race in the entire country over the
last dozen years. Producing
superstars such as Rachel
Alexandra, Untapable, Ashado and
Proud Spell just since 2004, the
Fair Grounds Oaks is the place to
start when handicapping on Derby
Road to the Derby
and Oaks
January 17
Lecomte
Silverbulletday
February 21
Risen Star
Rachel Alexandra
March 28
Louisiana Derby
Fair Grounds Oaks
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Eve at Churchill Downs.
There is an incredible amount of
history at Fair Grounds, but from a
contemporary standpoint, it still
remains one of the most intriguing
and challenging handicapping
puzzles in the country owing to a
fair-playing main track and an
almost impossibly long stretch run.
Horizontal or multi-race players can
feast on generous payoffs in the
pick four due to solid fields and a
competitive Louisiana-bred racing
program that provides some
opportunities for big bombs.
In a city celebrated for its unique
culture, irresistible eats, and
round-the-clock opportunities for
revelers, there is a reason Fair
Grounds has stood the test of time
in New Orleans – and for the 143rd
time it will again play the part of a
beautiful winter getaway for those
spending their afternoons shivering
in colder climates up North.
We'll try to send some sunshine
your way. - HPN
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AND SUBSCRIBE TO THE Q-RACING
JOURNAL TO FOLLOW AMERICA’S
FASTEST ATHLETES!
Pose your questions each week in Night School – or by emailing [email protected]!
Each issue, we’ll take your questions for Caton Bredar, Horse Player NOW analyst, Night School co-host and noted reporter for HRTV.
What's the difference between Gulfstream Park and
Gulfstream Park West?
Very simply, they are two different tracks being run by the same ownership/management team. Gulfstream Park is the same track as always, located in Hallandale, FL and owned and operated by The Stronach Group.
Gulfstream Park West is the track formerly known as Calder, located near Opa Locka, FL and operated since October 2014 by The Stronach Group. The Calder property has been owned by Churchill Downs Inc., which still operates the casino located adjacent to the track and grandstand.
For the most part, the horses and horsemen competing (and the caliber of competition) at GP during the summer months and GPW in October and November are
essentially the same. The names and quality will begin a gradual change upward when racing restarts at Gulfstream Park on December 6 with the arrival of many Midwest and Northern/East Coast horsemen, jockeys and horses.
When you handicap the GP races, it's going to be important to note any differences in running lines for horses based in Florida year-round as the two track surfaces are very different even though the people and horses are often the same. GPW remains a deeper track that some horses really take to and others struggle over; going back to GP can make a big difference.
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Pose your questions each week in Night School – or by emailing [email protected]!
Can anyone besides Todd Pletcher make a case for leading trainer at Gulfstream's
Championship Meet?
There's strength in numbers, and Pletcher, who has led the standings at GP for the past decade, is tough to get past. Since the winter of 2004, no trainer has won more races--or purse money--than the Toddster. That said, the changing dynamics of racing in South Florida, combined with a change in Pletcher's base of operations (for the first time he'll train and stable at Palm Beach Downs training center), leave the door open a crack for another conditioner to step to the forefront.
Away from Palm Meadows (which is owned by Gulfstream Park), Pletcher will be under zero pressure to run at Gulfstream as opposed to any other winter racing venue; at the same time, it remains to be seen how effective horses shipping in from Palm Beach Downs will be, as opposed to those shipping in from other venues. I’m not saying Pletcher won't win the title again, but with some powerful outfits gearing up
more than ever for the winter and simultaneously having horses based down in Florida year-‘round, it's possible someone other than Pletcher could assume a lead role.
What do you most look forward to, for the Gulfstream 2015 Championship Meeting?
Everything! Even if you didn't have some of the best weather in the nation and didn't have the Atlantic Ocean and the beach in the background of the shot from the quarter-pole camera, the racing would be enough to make you look forward to Gulfstream every year as much as a child looks forward to Santa Claus.
The quality of the jockey colony is superb with an unbelievable quantity of jockeys to go along with the quality, making the race-riding as competitive as any place you'll find.
Two very different turf courses every racing day make for interesting and contentious grass racing. And the Rainbow 6 with a 20-cent minimum means every day you can, on a limited budget,
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Pose your questions each week in Night School – or by emailing [email protected]!
swing for the fences and, at the same time, possibly hit for a decent score. The 3-year-old program is second to none. So chances are, if you don't see the next Kentucky Derby winner (like Animal Kingdom pictured below), you will at least see some of the major players in the Triple Crown picture (i.e. Tonalist in 2014). If standing out in the sunshine,
breathing in salty beach air as the horses run and the palm trees sway isn't enough, you can always finish the day off with a steak dinner at Christine Lee's on the third floor of the clubhouse, or a rum cocktail at the bar in the Village, just a stone's throw from the walking ring. You can celebrate or drown your losses, and you don't even have to leave the track! What's not to look forward to?
Follow me @CBredar
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By Brian Nadeau
fter the obvious lull
that is the post-
Breeders’ Cup portion of the
racing calendar, the opening of the
Gulfstream Park winter meet
December 6 offers horseplayers a
chance to dive back into the action
and wager on what, undoubtedly,
ranks as the winter’s best racing
product.
Large fields, turf racing and
expansive horizontal wagers make
Gulfstream an attractive
handicapping destination. So, let’s
take a look at the meet as a whole,
along with a few important nuggets
that I’ve picked up along the way
that might help pad your wagering
bankroll.
Speed Kills
If the old Keeneland main track
was known as a paved highway
then the Gulfstream Park main
track should now be known as the
old Keeneland. Quite simply, speed
is a must when you’re dealing with
the main track at Gulfstream. And,
yes, I know speed is always good
to have, no matter where they run
the races, but at Gulfstream it’s
almost a necessity.
Last year, 28% of the main track
races were won in wire-to-wire
fashion. Add in another 16% that
were won by pace pressers (those
within a half-length at the pace
A
25
call) and it means that 44% of the
main track races run at Gulfstream
were won by horses within a half-
length or closer to the lead. And
we’re talking about a sample of
well over 400 races, so this is a
tried and true scenario over the
course of my research, which went
from December through the last
weekend of March.
Conversely, only 15% of the dirt
races were won by closers, so if
you’re backing a horse with little
speed, you better get a fair price
before taking the plunge. The only
sample that is left is the stalkers,
which won 41% of the time, so
simple math tells us that 85% of
the main track races run at
Gulfstream Park over a four-month
span were won by horses within 4
lengths of the lead. When you’re
constructing your tickets and
you’ve got to decide between a
runner with tactical speed and one
without it, it should be a pretty
easy choice.
But you should also do your due
diligence when watching the races
and take note of a winning closer
or a horse that made a sustained
run from the back to run into the
number. While it might not prove
fruitful at Gulfstream, these are the
types of overlaid horses that pop
up at Aqueduct and Belmont in the
spring and can often fire at big
prices over race tracks that play
much, much fairer.
Todd is God
Me telling you Todd Pletcher
(pictured) is going to win a lot of
races at Gulfstream isn’t exactly
the equivalent of splitting the
atom.
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The country’s most prolific trainer
sends out an assembly line of
good-looking 3-year-olds every
winter in South Florida that go on
to make waves in their respected
sophomore divisions. In the
“damned if you do, damned if you
don’t” world of wagering, “To Todd
or not to Todd” is often a tough
question. But just how lethal is
Pletcher?
The question got me to thinking,
so I did some research, knowing
the stats would be impressive, but
they even surprised me. In the
past three years (at Gulfstream
only), Pletcher has sent out 33
first-time starters in 3-year-old
maiden special weight races (for
colts and fillies) on dirt that went
off at 2-1 or lower. He’s won with a
gaudy 55% of them, for an ROI
that sits at $2.29. If you’re an
exotics player, 74% of them ran in
the money. If you want to take it a
step further, 12 of the 33 have
been odds-on and eight of them
have won, for an ROI of $2.26.
So what does it all mean? It’s
pretty clear actually. Don’t play
against any Pletcher first-time
starter at Gulfstream that gets
bet. Of course, I know you’re
saying “Well, I’m certainly not
betting on some horse that has
never run and is 4-5!” And I
completely concur. But Gulfstream
has a large and expansive
wagering menu, filled with two pick
fours, a pick five and the Rainbow
6 (more on that later), so taking a
potential free square on a Pletcher
firster would give you a huge leg
up on your competition. And, as
hard as it is to believe, a lot of
people won’t be thinking the same
way, as they are often scared to
single in races loaded with young,
inexperienced horses, many of
which have never started before.
That universal good thing might be
4-5 on the board, but he/she could
be 5-2 in the horizontal exotics,
and that’s something you should
be taking advantage of.
What to Watch?
The 3-year-olds, of Course!
While the February 7 Grade I Donn
Handicap for older horses will
garner a lot of attention,
Gulfstream has forged its niche as
a Mecca for 3-year-olds and a
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pivotal proving
ground on the
road to the
Kentucky Derby.
The maiden and
allowance races
in December and
early January
funnel several
horses into the
lucrative graded
stakes in late
January,
February and
March, when the Grade I Florida
Derby is run on the 28th.
The Holy Bull (January 24,
pictured above in Barbaro’s
2008 win) and Fountain of Youth
(February 21) will begin to give us
an idea of just how strong the
South Florida 3-year-olds are this
year, but do your homework before
those key stakes to get an even
better idea. I’ll be paying close
attention to the aforementioned
maiden and allowance races
leading up to those two stakes, as
you can often unearth several live
contenders at overlaid odds. As
always, trip handicapping is one of
the last handicapping stones that is
virtually unturned, so take some
detailed notes to get a good handle
on the competition.
And to take it one step further
while revisiting what I mentioned
above, winning from off the pace
isn’t easy at Gulfstream, but a
long-striding 3-year-old that is able
to overcome the track profile and
make headway in the stakes races
might be worth a long look as he
continues down the path to the
first Saturday in May.
Chasing That Rainbow
If you’ve followed me on
Xpressbet’s website through my
weekly blogs, or in our online
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chats, you know by now I’m a big
proponent of Gulfstream’s
Rainbow 6 wager. Simply, it’s a
$0.20 base wager that pays out the
full pool only if there is one single
winner. If there isn’t one single
winner, the majority of the pool
carries over and the rest is divided
among the multiple winners who
did hit all six races. It grows in a
hurry and, at such a small base
wager, allows for the little guy to
join in on the fun and
get a ton of bang for
their wagering buck.
I don’t get involved
until the pool gets well
above $100,000 and starts to
attract national attention. When
this is the case, it offers daily
opportunities to hit a relatively
formful sequence and still get paid
handsomely. I’ll offer one caveat,
and it may be an odd one: I’m not
trying to be the single winner.
Frankly, I’m not that good, not that
naïve and not that wealthy that I
can throw thousands of dollars at
the bet on a daily basis, hoping for
that one monumental score. I like
to play for anywhere from $20-
$80, in the hopes of turning that
into $800-$5,000. And don’t forget,
with a $0.20 base play you can
have a ton of coverage on a ticket
that falls within my range. What I
like to try and do is identify one or
two races in the sequence that
could offer chaos and use as many
horses with a hint of form that I
can. I’ll also always look for one
single – a horse I can hang my hat
on and be okay with
losing should he/she
do the same. The
beauty of a minimal
play is that you don’t
have to pull your hair
out if a 5-2 single goes down in
flames (you didn’t have that much
tied into said horse).
With my budget, I don’t want to be
getting involved in a sequence that
looks impossible, because I know I
have no chance and will simply be
throwing my money down the
wagering drain. When that’s the
case, I just pass knowing there’s a
great chance no one will have a
single winning ticket anyway, and I
will just look to tomorrow.
There’s always tomorrow. – HPN
29
Oaklawn
Unveiling By Jerry Shottenkirk
When Danza streaked along the
rail and captured the Arkansas
Derby (pictured), it meant the
end of a captivating 2014 Oaklawn
Park racing season.
Before Danza was even pulled up,
the wheels were in motion for
2015, and Oaklawn has given
plenty of reasons to look forward
to the season that starts on Jan. 9
and ends on April 11.
The most significant change is an
incentives program for Lasix-free
horses. Oaklawn owner Charles
Cella has called the incentives
experimental and his track is
offering a 10-percent bonus of a
winner’s share for horses that run
and win.
Incentives available up to a total of
$1.4 million for the season will be
available. That means a possibility
of a $1,080 bonus for the lowest
level and up to $60,000 for the
Arkansas Derby.
30
It may be a step in the right
direction, but it doesn’t make
handicapping any easier.
Perhaps horses can run to their par
or even better without Lasix. Over
this track and during this season,
it’s going to take a start to find out.
It puts a wrinkle in a handicapper’s
approach to gauging if Lasix is a
necessity for certain horses.
Handicapping at
Oaklawn is
challenging,
particularly in
the first part of
the season.
Some horses
come into the
season after time
away from the races; many others
come in from tracks in the Mid-
South region and hit Hot Springs,
Ark., running.
A good number of horses-for-
courses become common. No less
than 15 runners won 3 or more
times last season. If they adapt to
the track, they often continue the
success, and with that, they often
continue that success at other
ports. The best example from last
year was Moonshine Mullin.
After setting for third in an optional
claiming race in his first outing of
the season, he reeled off wins in
an $80,000 claiming race and a
couple of optional claimers. He
went on to Churchill Downs, where
he beat the heavy hitters in the G2
Alysheba and G1 Stephen Foster.
He outlasted Will
Take Charge,
Departing and
Revolutionary,
among others.
He was claimed
during the ’13
fall season at
Remington Park,
and owner Randy Patterson and
trainer Randy Morse enjoyed the
Moonshine magic often during the
Oaklawn season.
Oaklawn was home to a few other
horses that developed into some of
the country’s best. Work All Week
won a sprint to start off the year at
Oaklawn and Don’t Tell Sophia
worked her way into the elite after
developing into a great runner over
the OP strip.
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There is no reason to believe the
talent in 2015 cannot be on par
with last year. In fact, it might be
better. Work All Week, who went
on to win the Breeders’ Cup Sprint,
is expected to run. Graded winner
Don’t Tell Sophia is expected to
battle in the track’s lucrative stakes
program, and Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile Fillies champ Take Charge
Brandi, Moonshine Mullin, and the
Steve Asmussen-trained duo of
Tapiture and Breeders’ Cup Distaff
heroine Untapable are expected to
compete later in the season.
Oaklawn has its usual pair of G1
races in the $1 million Arkansas
Derby (April 11)
and the $600,000
Apple Blossom
(April 10). The G2
Rebel Stakes
(March 14) offers
$750,000, the G3
Fantasy Stakes
(April 4) is worth
$400,000, the G3
Count Fleet (April
9) brings a purse
of $300,000 and
the G2 Oaklawn
Handicap (April 11) offers
$600,000.
While the stakes program is as
lucrative as any in the country, the
daily cards bring quality and have
been a showcase for many trainers
whose horses are ready to go once
they begin racing at the Spa, which
opened in 1904.
It’s never a surprise when
Asmussen wins a training title, but
he was particularly dominant in
2014 and will return with his usual
strong cast of characters.
Asmussen-trained horses won 22
percent of their races and more
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than $1.8 million in purses – nearly
twice the amount of nearest
competitor D. Wayne Lukas.
However, while the “power” stables
have done well, they haven’t been
alone. One of the most notable is
the stable of Federico Villafranco,
who has trained a powerful string
for owner Danny Caldwell over the
past few years. In 2014, Villafranco
trainees won 25 of
82 races for 30-
percent success.
Some of the
country’s most
successful
conditioners pop up on a daily
basis. Kenny McPeek, Mark Casse,
Wayne Catalano, Tony Dutrow,
Bret Calhoun, Chris Richard and
Donnie Von Hemel are regulars
here, and J.R. Caldwell and Cody
Autrey and many others will have
their stables ready to go.
As one would expect, Asmussen’s
first-call rider in this area – Ricardo
Santana, Jr. – dominated. He won
59 races and his mounts earned in
excess of $2.5 million. Norberto
Arroyo, Jr. won 31 races and $1.1
million in mount earnings, and
Channing Hill won 18 races and
just over $1 million in mount
earnings. Jon Court captured 26
races and his mounts earnings
were $990,000. Court comes in off
a renaissance Fall Meet at
Churchill. The outstanding,
regional-based Cliff Berry always is
in the top 10 and gets his share of
“live” mounts as well, as does
journeyman Luis
Quinonez.
Trainers who
frequent Churchill
Downs, Fair Grounds,
Remington Park,
Hawthorne, Turfway and Delta
Downs often fill much of the card
to start off the season, but once
the big-money races begin, New
Yorkers, Floridians and Californians
will make their presence felt.
Oaklawn often works best for
speed horses, but it’s certainly
possible to get it done off the pace.
The short stretch of mile races,
which begin and end at the
sixteenth-pole, often make it
difficult to run down the speed. But
more times than not, it is a fair-
playing track. - HPN
Oaklawn often works
best for speed horses,
but it’s certainly possible
to get it done off the
pace.
33
SANTA ANITA
PREVIEW By Jeremy Plonk
he defined seasons of
Southern California racing
have taken a noticeable
turn of late. When you’ve balanced
the annual turkey dinner at
Thanksgiving with both the Detroit
Lions and Del Mar racing action,
you know things have changed.
But there’s something about Dec.
26 that still rings true on this
circuit. Opening day at Santa Anita
for the winter meeting (no matter
how long it now lasts), still feels
like a kickoff to the New Year.
After three consecutive SA years
that culminated with Breeders’ Cup
bids, the 2014-’15 campaign at the
Great Race Place will have a
different feel as the championships
move to Keeneland in the autumn.
Perhaps once again, Santa Anita’s
prized stakes schedule can resume
more of its historical atmosphere
T
35
and become less of a stopping-off
point for the Breeders’ Cup.
In all, eight Grade 1 races will be
run at the upcoming winter meet,
which concludes April 19 before
rebranding and reloading with a
spring meet April 25-June 28.
For me, the Santa Anita winter
meet always has been about two
of those premier Grade 1s – the
March 7 Santa Anita Handicap and
the April 9 Santa
Anita Derby. With
all due respect to
the other divisions,
it’s those marquee
races for the top
colts and geldings
on the west coast
that rev my motor. There’s
something about the ‘Big Cap that
tugs at my sense of importance like
no other handicap race in the
country. It’s not always a showcase
of Hall of Famers-to-be, but it pulls
you in like it could be. That’s the
sign of a great race.
The same can be said about the
Santa Anita Derby. In any given
year, the west coast could pop THE
horse for the Triple Crown trail.
Recent runners like I’ll Have
Another and California Chrome
have proven that, and the Santa
Anita Derby historically has
produced as many ‘wow’ moments
as any 3-year-old spring stakes
that I can recall. Think Mister
Frisky. Think Winning Colors. Think
Sunday Silence. Think Point Given.
The Daily Approach
No doubt the weekend stakes
menu at Santa Anita
stacks up with any
locale in America. But
the four-day race
week (Thursday-
Sunday) that has
become the norm in
Arcadia provides a
significantly different product from
a wagering standpoint.
Last year’s 69-day winter meeting
saw handle grow 4% over the
same dates the season prior.
But as has been a national problem
with a shrunken foal crop since
2008, the average field size during
the winter meeting dropped from
8.08 starters per race in 2013 to
7.66 last season.
The player’s pick five,
the first five races on the
card, remains one of the
circuit’s best bets with
just a 14% takeout.
36
Betting Southern California requires
horseplayers to compound value
via the multi-race wagers given the
field-size issues. Consider that a
series of 6-horse fields in a pick
three still offers 216 combinations
vs. the 120 possibilities for an
intra-race trifecta in those same 6-
horse fields. String together a
quintet of 7-horse line-ups in a pick
five and you have 16,849 combos
and a reasonable way to turn $30
into $1,500 without
tapping your inner-
Powerball supply of
luck. The player’s
pick five, the first
five races on the
card, remains one
of the circuit’s best
bets with just a 14% takeout.
Who’s Hot, Who’s Not?
Jerry Hollendorfer, John Sadler and
Bob Baffert all finished within a
single victory for the leading trainer
title at last year’s winter meet and
all won at a 20% rate or more. If
you go back two seasons, only
three wins separated that power
trio atop the standings. Nothing on
the landscape has changed to think
those three won’t be players once
again. So how do you separate?
Baffert went just 3-for-16 with
first-time starters at last year’s
winter meet, while Sadler was 3-
for-8 with more limited strikes.
Hollendorfer went 1-for-7 in debuts
at the meet.
On turf, the advantage also went
to Sadler with 16 grass wins at the
meet – Hollendorfer had 10,
Baffert just 2. Both
Sadler and the ‘Dorf
scored at 19% on the
green.
The trio also led the
colony in stakes wins,
paced by Sadler’s 8
(31% wins), Baffert (22%) and
Hollendorfer (12%) each had 7.
Because Del Mar has replaced
Hollywood as the circuit’s lead-in,
it’s worth nothing that early in the
Dmr stand, Baffert has started
about half as many runners as
Hollendorfer and Sadler, and may
have more horses with more
conditions to attack for the start of
the Santa Anita meeting. Don’t be
surprised if the white-haired one
Don’t be surprised if the
white-haired one gets
off to a flying start at
the SA stand with more
bullets to fire.
37
gets off to a flying start at the SA
stand with more bullets to fire.
Rafael Bejarano (pictured)
annihilated the rider’s standings
during the last winter meet. And
his autumn return to the top during
the former Oak Tree timeframe
indicates that his summer Santa
Anita swoon this year was an
aberration.
Bejarano nearly doubled-up any
other rider in turf wins last winter
at SA, winning exactly as many
times as No. 2 and 3-rated grass
riders Joe Talamo and Corey
Nakatani combined.
When it came to the money races,
it was no surprise to see veterans
Mike Smith (10 winners, 18%) and
Gary Stevens (9 winners, 25%)
atop the stakes mix last SA winter.
Bejarano (9 winners, 15%) and
Nakatani (9 winners, 22%) also
were in high demand in stakes.
-HPN
38
New Meadowlands Inaugural Season a Success
By Ken Warkentin
The inaugural season at the New Meadowlands began on November 23, 2013 when a sparkling, state-of-the-art grandstand was unveiled opposite the original building. The great Foiled Again, the richest pacer of all time, joined the sport’s first $4 million pacer and now-retired Gallo Blue Chip to help launch the grand opening. They were photographed side-by-side in a very special winner’s circle presentation (pictured right) and a new era was underway.
Foiled Again wrapped up his third straight division title in the inaugural TVG FFA Pace. The 10-year-old passed the $6 million mark, and symbolized the dominance of Yannick Gingras, who won his third straight driving title, and leading trainer Ron Burke, who passed his own astounding earnings record in 2014.
Typically, several stars of the sport, such as Sweet Lou, Trixton, JK Endofanera and Always B Miki kick-started their campaigns at the Big M, but one of the biggest stories of the meet was the arrival of European super trotter Sebastian K and his Swedish trainer/driver Ake Svanstedt, who unleashed his eight-year-old barefoot wonder on May 10. Sebastian K’s first American start was an astounding world record- equaling 1:50.1. What a way to say hello!
39
Sebastion K came right back the following week to set a stakes record of 1:50.2 in the Arthur J. Cutler Memorial. He would then become the fastest trotter in history with a 1:49 mile at Pocono Downs, and later equaled the mile-track world record of 1:50 in the John Cashman, Jr. Memorial. Ake Svanstedt would also fuel his Hambletonian dreams by winning the Peter Haughton Memorial with Centurion ATM in a world record-equaling 1:53.2.
On the pacing side, Sweet Lou certainly did his share to grab the spotlight in 2014 with an amazing streak of his own. The five-year-old Ron Burke trainee reeled off 10 straight wins, all with Hall of Famer Ron Pierce in the sulky, including a record six sub-1:48 miles, and major wins in the William Haughton Memorial in 1:47.1 and the US Pacing Championship in 1:47.2, while
pushing past $3 million. Other Ron Burke stable highlights came with world champion trotting filly and Merrie Annabelle winner Mission Brief, and double millionaire pacing mare Rocklamation, who won the Golden Girls and Lady Liberty.
Going into the season, Hall of Fame trainer Jimmy Takter had a lock on the Hambletonian
with a titanic trio of Father
Patrick, Nuncio and Trixton. World champion Father Patrick went into the big dance on a 15-race winning streak, and fresh off a
1:51.3 victory over his stablemates in the Stanley Dancer Memorial. But when the big favorite made a break from post 10, and Nuncio took on heavy pressure, Takter himself had Trixton poised to pounce and won the second-fastest Hambo ever in 1:50.3. Takter also captured the Hambletonian Oaks with Lifetime Pursuit in a world
40
record of 1:50.4, one of five stakes wins on the day for superstar driver Yannick Gingras.
Trainer Tony Alagna continued to produce a string of young stars like the outstanding Artspeak, the follow-up to triple millionaire Captaintreacherous, a freshman son of Western Ideal who won his first seven starts, including the NJSS Final, and part of a successful Top 5 first season at the Meadowlands for rising star catch driver Scott Zeron.
The 2014 Meadowlands Pace once again produced drama and excitement, and a $3,000 bargain, He’s Watching, and Tim Tetrick exploded to equal the all-time fastest race mile of 1:46.4. It was the Bionic Man’s fourth Pace trophy, and sparked a rousing celebration for Canadian trainer Dave Menary (pictured).
The New Meadowlands also was center stage for the track’s all-time leading driver, John Campbell, who won a NJSS Final with Doo Wop Hanover and was second in his 28th
Hambo appearance with Nuncio.
Brothers Ray and Larry Remmen, the track’s all time leading stable at $30 million, won the Mistletoe Shalee with Sandbetweenurtoes.
Stacy Chiodo enjoyed her own memorable moment. New Jersey’s sweetheart became the first female driver to break 1:50 with her 11-year-old pacer Mighty Young Joe in 1:49.3.
Newcomers like Brett Miller, Dan Rawlings, Nancy Johansson, Tyler Smith and Vinnie Ginsberg all made their mark during the first season in front of the fabulous new building.
Overall, the first season at the New Meadowlands yielded promising results, strong handles, positive feedback about the stunning venue and its amenities, customer service from a proud team, nightly fan-friendly promotions and world-class harness racing, capped by a blockbuster Hambletonian Day.
The tradition of attracting top stars with great events, staging classic moments and creating modern day success continues into a bright future at Meadowlands Racing and Entertainment!
-HPN
41
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42
Who Pays Attention to
Quarter Horse Racing?
You Should. By Denis Blake
I used to think about American Quarter Horse racing in the same way many of you probably do. In other words, I didn’t. Yes, I was aware that it existed…but betting on it? No.
As a horseplayer, I had learned to stick to what I knew, and I didn’t know much about Quarter Horse racing. Then one day at Canterbury Park, the Quarter Horses demanded that I stand up and take notice of them. At the time I was a handicapper for Daily Racing Form, and my normal routine in the press box was to pay close attention to the Thoroughbred races and then start to handicap the next day’s races when the Quarter Horse races started (usually the last two or three races).
That particular day was no different. I played the Thoroughbred races, and then turned my attention to next day’s handicapping puzzle. I didn’t pay much attention to the two Quarter Horse races but did notice that one jockey had swept both races.
I had all but forgotten about that by the time the next day’s races came around. But then the same rider won the first Quarter Horse race of the card on a 6-1 shot. Despite the track announcer mentioning the rider’s hot streak, he went off at 10-1 in the next race on a horse that looked solid and promptly ran his streak to four. In the final race of the day, he was on a contender. Once more, despite many reminders of his hot streak by the announcer, the public
43
did not seem to notice, and he won again at 4-1.
I started to realize that I may have uncovered something – no one was paying much attention to the Quarter Horses. I started out slowly, but after a little practice and research, I improved my Quarter Horse handicapping skills and started to turn a profit. It seemed that the public did not really know how to handicap the breed. I also found that it was easier to make money betting on them, and not because favorites win at a higher rate.
I usually avoid chalk, and although favorites do win more often in Quarter Horse racing, it seems overlays are also easier to spot. Besides being oblivious to the previously mentioned jockey streak, the betting public often does not adapt their Thoroughbred handicapping skills to Quarter Horse racing. And while the nation’s premier Quarter Horse tracks, such as Los Alamitos and Remington Park, certainly do have dedicated and knowledgeable handicappers playing their races, at many other tracks with Quarter
Horse racing (especially those that are primarily Thoroughbred venues) most of the money wagered comes from simulcast/online outlets where players are accustomed to Thoroughbred racing.
So how do you adjust your Thoroughbred skills to play Quarter Horses? Much is the same, but there are differences. When it
comes to distances, keep in mind that because of the shorter races for Quarter Horses, an ideal distance may not be much different than a not-so-ideal distance.
Obviously the difference between an 870-yard race (about four furlongs) and a 350-yard sprint (a little more than 1 ½ furlongs) is easy to understand, but even the difference between 400 and 440 yards can be significant.
Some Quarter Horses excel in those final 40 yards while others tire and fade. Just because a horse can win going 4 00 does not necessarily mean he can go 440. That is often ignored by the betting public.
So how do you adjust
your Thoroughbred skills
to play Quarter Horses?
Much is the same, but
there are differences.
44
One pitfall to look out for is the “finish position trap.” When you are glancing through a Quarter Horse’s past performances, don’t give too much credence to his position in the order of finish. Instead, keep your eyes on how far back he was with respect to the winner (in addition to his final time and speed rating). It is not uncommon for a Quarter Horse to finish fifth by a length or less. Was such a horse a contender? Quite possibly. Maybe he was just the victim of a closely-matched field with a blanket finish. Or perhaps a bump out of the gate hurt his chances.
If a Thoroughbred finishes fifth, was he in contention at the end? Probably not. My point is this – if you see a Thoroughbred that has finished in the middle of the pack, he’s was probably outrun. But for a Quarter Horse, that may not always be the case. On the flip side, be sure to keep the beaten lengths in perspective for the two breeds. A Thoroughbred who finished four lengths behind the winner likely ran a respectable
race, but a Quarter Horse beaten by four lengths was likely outrun.
Handicapping trouble is another area that can be vastly different. A slow break or some bumping out of the gate in a one-mile race is generally no big deal, but for a Quarter Horse it can be devastating. I am much more forgiving when it comes to
completely throwing out a Quarter Horse’s poor performance. Even if he broke just a half-length back or got bumped out of the gate, either could have cost him a chance to
win, and an off-the-board finish after a little trouble will always help the odds next time out. Just be careful of horses with chronic, self-inflicted problems at the gate. Also, watch for a horse that might get “pulled” to a better-than-expected effort. If there is a clear-cut winner, give the horses to his immediate inside and outside an extra look. Sometimes those horses will jump up and run a big race as they chase, or seem to get “pulled,” by a superior runner (as opposed to keeping pace with
45
another horse who might not be a factor in the race).
Another thing to keep in mind for those on the fence about wagering on Quarter Horses is that the abundance Thoroughbred handicapping information has eliminated many overlays that used to exist for that breed. Today’s elite handicappers have more available information than ever, and for the most part, they do not bet on Quarter Horses. Would you rather enter a pari-mutuel battle against a group that includes seasoned pros, or one that includes bettors who do not fully understand Quarter Horse racing yet are happy to put their money into the pool?
Just as the early pioneers of Thoroughbred speed figures enjoyed great success, so can those who take the time and effort to handicap Quarter Horse racing. We all know that one of the keys to winning at pari-mutuel wagering is being smarter and better informed than your competition. That is a tall order regardless of what breed you are betting, but it’s not quite so daunting a task in Quarter Horse racing.
Denis Blake is one of the American Quarter Horse Association’s Racing Aces and is also editor of American Racehorse and The Horsemen’s Journal magazines.
Will History be Made at Los Alamitos?
If you are curious to try your hand at Quarter Horse racing, check out the card at Los Alamitos on December 14 when Heza Dasha Fire is scheduled to race in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Two Million Futurity. The gelding has a perfect six-for-six record and would earn the $1 million Los Alamitos Cash Bonanza with a victory to complete a sweep of the track’s three major futurities. He would become the first horse ever to win the bonus, and it would put him within striking distance of Quarter Horse racing’s all-time earnings mark of nearly $2.8 million set by Ochoa.
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Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (8:30 pm ET) in Night School!
Point Given / Photos By Z
DECEMBER 2014 6 Claiming Crown (GP), 8 stakes Jennings (Lrl), 3&up, 8F Marylander (Lrl), 2yo, 7F Willa on the Move (Lrl), f/m, 6F Gin Talking (Lrl), 2yof, 7F Kingarvie (WO), 2yo, 8.5F Garland of Roses (Aqu), f/m, 6F Inaugural (Tam), 2yo, 6F Sandpiper (Tam), 2yof, 6F PA Nursery (Prx), 2yo, 7F Holiday Inaugural (TP), f/m, 6F Gold Rush (GG), 2yo, 8F Lightning Jet (Haw), 3&up, 6F Powerless (Haw), f/m, 6F Arizona Breeders (TuP), 4 stakes KLAQ (Sun), 3&up, 5.5F
7 Valedictory (WO), 3&up, 14F Soviet Problem (LA), 2yof, 7F Jamison (Sun), 3&up, 6.5F NM Commission (Sun), f/m, 6F
12 Magic City (FG), 3&up, 1m70y Kudzu (FG), 2yo, 5.5F
13 Starlet (LA), 2yof, 8.5F LA Champions Day (FG), 8 stakes Sugar Swirl (GP), f/m, 6F El Prado (GP), 3&up, 7.5F-T South Beach (GP), f/m, 7.5F-T Harlan’s Holiday (GP), 3&up, 8.5F IL Futurity (Haw), 2yo, 8.5F IL Debutante (Haw), 2yof, 8.5F
14 Springboard Mile (RP), 2yo, 8F Trapeze (RP), 2yof, 8F Useeit (RP), 3yof, 8F Jim Thorpe (RP), 3yo, 8F She’s All In (RP), f/m, 8.5F King Glorious (LA), 2yo, 7F Damon Runyon (Aqu), 2yo, 1m70y East View (Aqu), 2yof, 1m70y Enchantress (Sun), 2yof, 8F OR Showcase (PM), 7 stakes
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19 Lookout (DeD), f/m, 7.5F
20 Los Al Futurity (LA), 2yo, 8.5F Trpcl Prk Derby (GP), 3yo, 8.5F-T Trpcl Prk Oaks (GP), 3yof, 8.5F-T Sugar Bowl (FG), 2yo, 6F Letellier (FG), 2yof, 6F Prairie Bayou (TP), 3&up, 8.5F B-Connected (DeD), 3&up, 7.5F Bold Ego (Sun), f/m, 5.5F Hank Mills (TuP), 3&up, 8F-T Kachina (TuP), f/m, 8F-T Eleanor Casey (CT), 2yof, 7F
21 KHEY Sprint (Sun), 3yo, 6.5F
23 Gift of the Magi (Prx), 3&up, 7F Mistletoe (Prx), f/m, 6F
26 Malibu (SA), 3yo, 7F La Brea (SA), 3yof, 7F Mathis Bros Mile (SA), 3yo, 8F-T MD Juv Filly Champ (Lrl), 2yof, 7F Gravesend (Aqu), 3&up, 6F
27 Midnight Lute (SA), 3&up, 6.5F Bobby Frankel (SA), f/m, 9F-T
Eddie Logan (SA), 2yo, 8F-T Pago Hop (FG), 3yof, 8F-T Woodchopper (FG), 3yo, 8F-T McKnight (GP), 3&up, 12F-T La Prevoyante (GP), f/m, 12F-T Mr. Prospector (GP), 3&up, 6F MD Juvenile Champ (Lrl), 2yo, 7F Pasco (Tam), 2yo, 7F Gasparilla (Tam), 2yof, 7F Red Hedeman Mile (Sun), 2yo, 8F Lost in the Fog (TuP), 2yo, 6.5F AZ Juvenile Fillies (TuP), 2yof, 6.5F
28 Daytona (SA), 3&up, 6.5F-T Kalookan Queen (SA), f/m, 6.5F-T NY Stallion Series (Aqu), 2 stakes Dominguez (Sun), 3&up, 8.5F
30 Auld Lang Syne (Prx), 3&up, 1m70y Valley Forge (Prx), 3&up, 6F
31 Luke Kruytbosch (TuP), 3yo, 8.5F (pictured right)
LA Futurity (FG), 2 stakes Bay Ridge (Aqu), f/m, 8.5F Alex Robb (Aqu), 3&up, 8.5F
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Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (8:30 pm ET) in Night School!
Dec 2 – Online: Night SchoolDec 3 – Online: Woodbine Chat Dec 3 – AQHA national poll Dec 4 – Los Alamitos (TB) opens Dec 4 – Turfway Park opens Dec 5 – Online: Remington chat Dec 5 – Sunland Park opens Dec 5 – Finger Lakes closes Dec 6 – Gulfstream winter opens Dec 7 – Woodbine closes Dec 10 – AQHA national poll Dec 12 – Online: Remington chat Dec 14 – Online: Remington chat Dec 14 – Remington Park closes Dec 14 – Golden Gate closes Dec 17 – AQHA national poll Dec 21 – Los Alamitos (TB) closes Dec 23 – AQHA national poll Dec 26 – Santa Anita opens Dec 27 – Online: Saturday Social Dec 31 – AQHA national poll
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KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE MALIBU: Sprinters have had far more success than routers turning back in distance in the season’s final G1 for the 3-year-olds. The last true router to win this race – and last ‘name’ 3YO from the Triple Crown trail – was Rock Hard Ten in ’04. Also don’t be afraid of a layoff, nor a bounce-back from a poor effort. Eight of the last 10 winners finished 3rd or worse in their most-recent prep before Malibu success.
MOST RECENT RENEWAL: The ‘other’ Baffert, Shakin It Up, upset 9/5 favorite and stablemate Flashback in a complete pace meltdown. The win was jockey David Flores’ 3rd in the last 7 years.
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPER’S AIDES:
Last 10 Winners – Full History ’13 Shakin It Up B. Baffert D. Flores
’12 Jimmy Creed R. Mandella G. Gomez ’11 The Factor B. Baffert M. Garcia
’10 Twirling Candy J. Sadler J. Rosario
‘09 M One Rifle B. Headley M. Smith
’08 Bob Black Jack J. Kasparoff D. Flores
’07 Johnny Eves J. Robbins D. Flores ’06 Latent Heat B. Frankel E. Prado
’05 Proud Tower Too S. Gonzalez D. Cohen
’04 Rock Hard Ten R. Mandella G. Stevens
Last 10 Winners’ Preps ’13 Shakin It Up 4th, Sunland Derby (Sun) ’12 Jimmy Creed 9th, Breeders’ Cup Sprint (SA)
’11 The Factor 8th, Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (CD) ’10 Twirling Candy 4th, Goodwood (Hol)
‘09 M One Rifle 3rd, allowance (Hol)
’08 Bob Black Jack 5th, Underwood (Hol) ’07 Johnny Eves 1st, allowance (Hol)
’06 Latent Heat 9th, Perryville (Kee) ’05 Proud Tower Too 1st, On Trust Hcp (Hol)
’04 Rock Hard Ten 6th, Haskell (Mth)
MALIBU STAKES
December 26, 2014 SANTA ANITA PARK
DECEMBER RACE OF THE MONTH
Shakin It Up scored a 17/1 surprise last year over Central Banker. Click video to watch the replay!
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1 RACETRACK DRIVE • E. RUTHERFORD, NJ • PLAYMEADOWLANDS.COM
FRIDAYS & SATURDAYS • FIRST POST 7:15 PM
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14 Things We Learned in ‘14.
The older you get, the smarter you get. It’s something oh so true, but oh so infuriating to hear when you’re young and think you have the world at your fingertips. It’s only with age that we learn that we still have a lot to learn. The year 2014 gave the sage a few more things to gather.
1. They can still run out west.California Chrome & Bayern proved a watered-down, daily, west-coast scene can still bring a big horse. 2. Dan’s still the man. Even atage 7, Wise Dan ran the table at 4-for-4 with colic surgery in-between. 3. In Graham we trust. Our bestturf trainer Graham Motion pitched a perfect game with import Main Sequence and trumped the Euros. 4. Poly means ‘many’ for areason. The dirt racing at Keeneland was high-end superb during the Fall, but field sizes suffered without the Polytrack. 5. Gary’s a gamer. Kneereplacement surgery couldn’t keep Stevens out of the saddle for long. 6. Rainbow bright. Someonelikes the Rainbow Six at Gulfstream, a surprise to this eye.
7. Worldwide Ward. Wesleyproved more than a 2yo sprint ace. 8. Paltry Pletcher veterans. NoTAP starters over age 2 in BC. 9. Three blind mice. See howthey miss a Classic disqualification. 10. Mainstream misfires. TheEsquire TV show Horseplayers was solid racing viewing, but a Nielsen bust, and canceled after 1 season. 11. Hot young gun. The new faceof the tournament game might be Matt Bernier, 24, and it will be interesting to see how this sharpie handles his success. 12. Twins Spires to GoldenDome. Churchill Downs became the Notre Dame of horse racing, providing a historic culture second to none once again, also spurring an opposition force like no other. 13. Rosie in bloom. Napravnik’sabrupt retirement to start a family came before she could shut up the last of the chauvinists still questioning her superior skills. 14. Life’s too short. Rest inpeace, young man. Juan Saez, 17.
– JP
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