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UK & German Monthly Hotel Market Forecast

November Highlights

Presented byE-forecasting.com


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Monthly Hotel Forecasts

Launched in 2013, e−forecasting.com released market Monthly Hotel Forecasts of key UK and German markets using HotStats historical data

More markets in Europe and MENA to follow in the coming months


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Current Forecast Markets

Berlin Birmingham Bristol Cardiff Frankfurt Glasgow Liverpool London Manchester Munich Newcastle Provincial UK Total UK


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4Monthly Hotel Forecast

Reports Historic hotel market data from powerful HotStats database 24 month forecast, 8 quarters out, 2 years out Key metrics: occupancy, ADR, RevPAR Proprietary hotel metrics:

– HIP - hotel industry pulse– HIL - hotel industry leading indicator– FTLI – foreign travel leading indicator– Monthly GDP

Additional econometric insights:– Labor market conditions– Inflation– Exchange and interest rates– Energy prices– Special events


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5Monthly Hotel Forecast

Reports – UPDATED FEATURE

‘myhotel’ add-on customization provides property level forecasts

Properties individual data is analyzed within market forecasts and each month clients receive these forecasts in addition to market level details


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6UK Hotel Market Forecast

November Report Highlights

UK countrywide 2 year forecast:– Increase 2.3% in 2014 and 2.4% in 2015– Long term economic growth = 2.2%

Monetary policy: Euro Zone policy change in previous month, all other key rates on hold

Oil prices: WTI & Brent prices lowering Financial futures: US dollar up while

British Pound down


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7UK Hotel Market Forecast November Data Highlights

UK HIP – down 2% UK HIL – flat Probability of upcoming recession: 21.3% UK Monthly GDP – up 0.2% UK FTLI up 0.2% Consumer prices up 2.2% Unemployment rate at 7.5% Consumer confidence up Business executives more optimistic Builders showing higher expectations


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8UK Hotel Forecast Highlights

NovemberMarket 2014 RevPAR

Forecast2015 RevPAR

ForecastBirmingham 2% 3.9%

Bristol (0.2%) 0%

Cardiff 1.2% 0.9%

Glasgow 2.9% (2.7%)

Liverpool 1.9% 3.3%

London 4.9% 3%

Manchester 0.7% (3.8%)

Newcastle 6.6% 3.3%

Provincial UK 1% (1.3%)

Total UK 1% 0.4%


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9German Hotel Market ForecastNovember Report Highlights

German countrywide 2 year forecast:– Increase 1.7% in 2014 and 2% in 2015– Long term economic growth = 1.7%

Monetary policy: Euro Zone policy changes in previous month, all other key rates on hold

Oil prices: WTI & Brent prices lowering Financial futures: US dollar and Euro

increasing


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10German Hotel Market Forecast

November Data Highlights German HIP – flat German HIL – up 0.1% Probability of upcoming recession: 16% German Monthly GDP – up 0.2% German FTLI up 0.2% Consumer prices up 1.2% Unemployment rate at 5.2% Consumer confidence up Business executives less optimistic Builders showing higher expectations


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11German Hotel Forecast

November Report HighlightsMarket 2014 RevPAR

Forecast2015 RevPAR

ForecastBerlin (4%) (1.1%)

Frankfurt 0.6% (3.5%)

Munich (1.3%) 4.8%


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For More Information

Monthly hotel forecast highlights were taken from the November issue of Monthly Hotel Forecasts, please visit:– http://www.e-forecasting.com or email

[email protected] for subscription rates and queries on additional markets

http://www.e-forecasting.com/

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