Download - Hiroshi komiyama

Hiroshi Komiyama Chairman of the Institute, Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc., Japan

President emeritus, University of Tokyo

TBLI CONFERENCETM ASIA2011 15 　 September 　 2011

The Revitalization for Japan

－ The Platinum society －

Saturation of artifacts is the key concept

No. of automobiles

（ million ）

No. of automobiles per population

Japan ５８０．４５USA １３８０．４５Britain ３１０．５１France ３１０．５０Germany ４１０．４９China ３２０．０２India １３０．０１

Source ： Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications

Number of automobile ownership （ 2007 ）

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

[ton/

]一

人当

たり

セメ

ント

生産

量人

J apanChinaUSAFrance

Saturation will come in 2 ~ 10 years in China 　Production of cement per person

Pro

du

ctio

n o

f C

emen

t p

er p

erso

n [

ton

]

Source ： Production of Cement ： UN Statistical year book

Population ： UNSD Demographic Statistics

Automobile energy consumption to 1/10 at 2050

Vehicle Weight [kg]Data Source: Yahoo! Japan Autos

Fu

el C

onsu

mp

tion

[L

/km

]

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

US/European CarsJapanese Cars

Hybrid Cars

Electric & Fuel cells Cars

Energy efficiency is secondly important!

1960 1970 1980 1990Year

USDenmarkBelgiumFranceSweden

Source: Japan Cement Association

Japan

Ener

gy C

onsu

mpti

on p

er to

n

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

0

6,000(MJ/t)

theoretical value

Technology transfer can reduce emission

Cement

Investment for energy efficiency can be refunded!

Energy efficiency improvement by 3 times is feasible.

Energy　Scenario　and　CO2

a)　　19906.0G　C-ton

1.5G

b)　　2050　BAU　case

c)　　Vision　2050

d)　　After　22nd　Century

1.5G

22.0G　C-ton

3.0G

Fossil resources

Non- Fossil resources

Data: from “Vision 2050”

CO2 369　ppm

CO2 600　ppm

CO2　　460　ppm

CO2　　280　ppm

4.5G　C-ton

22nd century will be bright!

ManufacturingDaily　life

Home　

Transportation

Office

ⒸHiroshi Komiyama

Energy consumption by final use in Japan

Theoretical limit of transportation is zero!

Energy consumption in houses and offices

エネルギー・経済統計要覧 2009年版より

Air-conditioner 28%

Water　heating　 30%

others 24%

kitchen 8%

lighting 10%

Offices 50%: air-conditioner20%: lighting

Theoretical limit of air-conditioning is zero!

Houses

Water　Heater　

Heat-pump　(Ecocute)50%×4=200%　

　　　　　Fuel　cell　　(Enefarm)　　45%　elec.　+　40%　hot　water

Technology innovation in Japan

Komiyama ecohouse : using existing technologies!

81% reductionInvestment refunded in 12 years

Solar panel : 3.6 ｋ W

Heat-pump water heater

Insulation : K=1.6 W/m2K

New air-conditioner

Ⓒ 小宮山　宏

Hybrid car ： 22.6km/l

New refrigerator & lightings

ENERGY 　　　　 70% 　

FOOD 　　　 70% 　

WOOD 　　　　　 100% 　

Self-Sufficiency in Japan at 2050 　

ⒸHiroshi Komiyama

WATER 100%

Komiyama’s Proposal

Japanese goal as well as 21st model of humanity

MINERAL 　　　 70% 　

present

東京屋形船案内http://www.t-yakata.com/tyh_dkship.htm

1967

環境省　図で見る環境白書昭和５７年http://www.env.go.jp/policy/hakusyo/zu/eav11/eav110000000000.html

Japan’s experience with Sumida river

Japan’s experience with Kitakyusyu

Source ： Japan as a forerunner for addressing emerging problems in the world P27

0.2

4.9

3.4

0.8

3.1

0.7

1.4

3.3

0.2

0.6

3.2

0.8

1.2

1.4

1.6

4.0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

日本

中国

カナダ

イタリア

フランス

ドイツ

イギリス

アメリカ

SOx NOx g/ W ]発電量あたりの・発生量［ｋｈ

NOxSOx

Source:http://www.tepco.co.jp/eco/report/lcl/01_2-j.html

http://www.braincoal.info/news_images/20100206ccs_yamada.pdf

Japan ：2008

China ：2000

Others ：2005

Emission　of　Sulfur　and　Nitrogen 　from　Thermal　Power　Plants

　　　　　　　 SOx ， NOx 　［ g/kW ｈ］

U.S.

U.K.

Germany

France

Italy

Canada

Japan

China

http://www.tepco.co.jp/eco/report/lcl/01_2-j.html

Shrinking earth

Aging society

Eco houseEco applianceEco carSolar panelWind mill

Barrier free building Health monitoringSafe mobility Senses supporting

Green & silver & golden growth 　

Exploding knowledge

Structuring knowledgeStructured knowledge- baseEducationLifelong learningValue creation

ⒸHiroshi Komiyama

ecological 　

participation by all including seniors 　lifelong learning 　

abundant in job opportunities

sustainable societycreated by green, silver, gold and various innovations

Platinum society is a vision of the 21st century 　