Higher-Resolution IA Models
LEON CLARKE
November 13, 2015
Presented at the Third Mee.ng of the Commi4ee on Assessing Approaches to Upda.ng the Social Cost of Carbon
Higher-Resolution Integrated Assessment (IA) Models
! Capture interactions between complex and highly nonlinear systems
! In the context of mitigation, they
have traditionally focused on cost-effectiveness analysis
! They are increasingly being used to explore climate impacts, with a particular focus on energy-water-land interactions
! They are part of a larger stream of IA research that includes multi-model approaches to bridge scales
Human Systems
Natural Earth Systems
ENERGY
Economy Security
Settlements
Food
Health
Managed Ecosystems
TechnologyScience
TransportPopulation
Sea Ice Carbon Cycle
Earth System Models
EcosystemsOceans
Atmospheric Chemistry
Hydrology
Coastal Zones
Higher-Resolution IA Models and Teams
Model Home Ins,tu,on
AIM Asia Integrated Model
Na.onal Ins.tutes for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba Japan
GCAM Global Change Assessment Model
Joint Global Change Research Ins.tute, PNNL, College Park, MD
IGSM Integrated Global System Model
Joint Program, MIT, Cambridge, MA
IMAGE The Integrated Model to Assess the Global
Environment
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bildhoven, The
Netherlands
MESSAGE Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alterna.ves and
their General Environmental Impact
Interna.onal Ins.tute for Applied Systems Analysis; Laxenburg, Austria
REMIND Regionalized Model of Investments and Technological
Development
Potsdam Ins.tute for Climate Impacts Research; Potsdam, Germany
Japan: The Asia Integrated Model (AIM)
2000
2050
2100
structure of AIM/CGE
production factormarket
capital
laborland
Final demand sector
resource
Production sectors
produced commoditymarket
food
serviceenergy
...
tradeJapan
China...
Energy technology model: energy efficiencyAgriculture model: land productivity
...
Annual parameter change
GHGsemissions
GHGsemissions
climatechange
feedbackeg. land productivity change due to climate changescenarios: population, GDP, ...
25 http://www.mnp.nl/image
Socio-economic system: 24 / 26 world regions
Environmental system: 0.5 x 0.5 degree
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The Energy System
Agriculture and Land Use
The EconomyRegional
Labor ForceRegional GDP
Regional Labor
Productivity
Energy Demand
Technologies
Energy Demand
Regional Resource
Bases
Regional Energy
Conversion Technologies
Energy Supply
Energy Markets
Energy Production.
Transformation & Use
GHG Emissions
Demand•Crops•LivestockForests products
SupplyRegional Land Categories and Characteristics
Ag-Land Markets
Production•Crops•Livestock•Forests products•Biomass energy
Commercial Biomass
Land Use ChangeEmissions
Technology
Land Use•Crops•Livestock•Managed Forests•Unmanaged
•Crops•Livestock•Biocrops•Foresty Products
•Land rent•Crop prices•Livestock prices•Forest product prices•Biomass prices
Terrestrial Carbon Cycle
Atmospheric Composition,
Radiative Forcing, & Climate
Ocean Carbon Cycle
Geospacially explicit land use data
Geospacially energy supply data14-region GCAM aggregations
GCAM
The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM): A Higher-Resolution IA Model
283 Land Regions
32 Energy Economy Regions
233 Water Basins
! GCAM is a global integrated assessment model ! GCAM links Economic, Energy, Land-‐use, Water, and Climate systems
! Meant to analyze consequences of interdependencies between human and Earth systems
! Runs in 5-‐year ,me-‐steps. ! GCAM is a community
model ! Documenta.on available
at: wiki.umd.edu/gcam
! Socioeconomic development ! Effects of climate ! Technology and resource
developments ! Energy and other policies
Data Development System
Disaggregation Models
GCAM Core: Dynamic Integration
IA Models Have Become Increasingly Complex Over the Last 30 Years
283 Land Regions
32 Energy Economy Regions
233 Water Basins
Province-Level Energy Economy
Regions
Automation System
Reduced-Form Climate Model
EIA IEA
GTAP HYDE
SAGE OECD
FAO IMAGE
MIRCA Aquastat
USDA USGS
CDIAC IIASA
Papers: Houghton, Rogner, others
Others
Digital Map of Irrigated
Areas MODIS
Union of Concerned Scientists
Gridded Livestock of the World
Others
Papers: Friedl, Portmann, Sleeter, Radeloff, others
Inputs and Output
Scenario Outputs
! Prices and production quantities: ! Energy sectors ! Transportation ! Primary energy resources ! Agricultural products
! Land use ! Crops (by type) ! Pasture ! Unmanaged
! Water demand ! Raw demand by sector ! Response to scarcity
! Greenhouse gases ! Economic indicators
! Economic losses ! Income transfer
Scenario Assump,ons
! Socioeconomic assumptions
! Energy, land use, and water technologies
! Policies ! Resources
Closing the Climate in IA Models
9
Energy Water Land Socio-
Economics
Climate
Strategies for climate mi.ga.on
Climate effects on human systems
The Challenges of Full-Coupling in Highly-Resolved IA Research
10
Energy Water Land Socio-
Economics
Climate
Challenge 1. Spa.ally-‐ and temporally-‐resolved climate informa.on that effec.vely represents uncertainty
Challenge 2. Intermediate Responses (e.g., response surfaces for agricultural yields)
Challenge 3. “Hooks” to take on climate or intermediate informa.on in IA models, incorpora.ng higher-‐resolu.on phenomenon
A Range of Ways to Treat Climate Impacts
Process Representa,on Parameterized Impacts
Large Energy-‐Water-‐Land Focus
Producer of Damage Informa,on
Consumer of Damage Informa,on
Impact on Building Energy Expenditures
12
!100$
!50$
0$
50$
100$
150$
200$
0$ 1000$ 2000$ 3000$ 4000$ 5000$ 6000$ 7000$ 8000$2005$USD
$per$cap
ita$
million$persons$
2100$
Brazil$ Middle$East$&$N.$Afr.$ Other$Asia$
Other$La@n$America$ USA$ India$
China$ Sub!Saharan$Africa$ Pacific$OECD$
Europe$ Russia$ Canada$
!200$ !100$ 0$ 100$ 200$ 300$ 400$
USA$Canada$Russia$Europe$
Oth.$Lat.$Amer.$Brazil$
Sub!Sah.$Afr.$Mid.$E.$&$N.$Afr.$
Other$Asia$Pacific$OECD$
India$China$
Global$average$
2005$USD$per$person$
2100$
!200$ !100$ 0$ 100$ 200$ 300$ 400$
USA$Canada$Russia$Europe$
Oth.$Lat.$Amer.$Brazil$
Sub!Sah.$Afr.$Mid.$E.$&$N.$Afr.$
Other$Asia$Pacific$OECD$
India$China$
Global$average$ 2050$
Comm.$Cooling$Comm.$HeaOng$Resid.$Cooling$Resid.$HeaOng$Net$
Change in energy expenditures for heating & cooling
Climate data from CCSM A2 scenario
Impact on Building Energy Expenditures
0.00%$
0.02%$
0.04%$
0.06%$
0.08%$
0.10%$
0.12%$
0.14%$
0.16%$
0.18%$
0.20%$
0$ 1$ 2$ 3$ 4$ 5$ 6$Degrees&C&
830:$2030$
830:$2050$
830:$2075$
830:$2100$
550:$2030$
550:$2050$
550:$2075$
550:$2100$
Figure 12: Global average addi.onal expenditures per unit of income on hea.ng and cooling as a func.on of the increase in global average surface temperature from 2010.
Water Demands in GCAM
(1) Hejazi et al. (2013). Hydrological Sciences Journal (2) Kyle et al. (2013). Int. J. of Greenhouse Gas Control (3) Davies et al. (2013). Advances in Water Resources (4) Chaturvedi et al. (2013). Mitigation & Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. (5) Hejazi et al. (2014). Technological Forecasting and Social Change (6) Kim et al. (in review). Climatic Change
(4) (2,3) (1)
(5) (6)
Instream flow requirements
GCAM tracks water demands for several sectors, subsectors, and technologies, &
at various spatial scales
Transforming Climate Information to Streamflow
! Requires climate information from GCMs as inputs
! Monthly temporal scale ! 0.5x0.5 degree spatial
resolution
Major basins
Hejazi et al. 2014. Hydrology & Earth Sys. Sc.
! Global hydrologic model ! Modified River Transport
Model scheme ! 233 Basins
What are the Implications of Different Land Use and Bioenergy Pathways on Water Scarcity?
! Human system dynamics have a critical influence on future water scarcity
! The percent of global population living in grids classified as water scarce in 2095 depends substantially on the role of bioenergy in future pathways.
Δpop = -‐3.6%
Δpop = +8.4% Hejazi et al. 2014. Hydrology & Earth Sys. Sc.
Extreme biomass produc.on scenario
Limited biomass produc.on scenario
Figures show water scarcity associated with different pathways toward roughly 4 W/m2 rela.ve to a higher-‐emissions reference scenario leading to forcing of roughly 8.5 W/m2. Scarcity defined as annual water demand over annual water supply.
Linked model experiments will be a key approach for integrated assessment
17
Linking GCAM-USA, a regional Earth system model, and a coupled hydrology-water management model,
Annual county scale water deficit as a fraction of demand
Hejazi, Mohamad I., et al. "21st century United States emissions mi.ga.on could increase water stress more than the climate change it is mi.ga.ng." Proceedings of the Na.onal Academy of Sciences 112.34 (2015): 10635-‐10640.
The emerging frontier – fully coupled water supplies and demands within an integrated framework
! Adaptive decisions to water scarcity will alter agricultural and land use patterns
! Non-renewable groundwater availability and extraction costs are key determinants of withdrawal projections.
Kim et al. (accepted). Climatic Change
Percent changes in wheat production in 2100
! Question: What is the effect of climate change on agriculture and land use?
! Key Results: The inclusion of changes in climate, without CO2 fertilization, results in an expansion of cropland globally.
Climate Change Could Alter the Extent of Cropland Area Required to Feed a Growing Population
Change in Cropland Area in Response to Climate Change
Source: Redrawn from Nelson et al. (2014) Results from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison Project
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
AIM
EN
VIS
AG
E
EP
PA
FAR
M
GTE
M
MA
GN
ET
GC
AM
GLO
BIO
M
IMPA
CT
MA
gPIE
% C
hang
e fr
om R
efer
ence
IPSL - LPJmL HadGEM2 - LPJmL IPSL - DSSAT HadGEM2 - DSSAT
19
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
EJ/y
r RCP8.5 RCP6.0 RCP4.5 RCP2.6 RCP8.5, with Impacts RCP6.0, with Impacts RCP4.5, with Impacts RCP2.6, with Impacts
Agriculture Impacts
Source: Kyle, P., C. Mueller, K. Calvin and A. M. Thomson (2014). "Meeting the Radiative Forcing Targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways in a World with Agricultural Climate Impacts." Earths Future 2(2): 83-98.
Global purpose grown bioenergy production
Many More Examples of IA Impacts Analysis
Hydropower
Ocean Acidifica,on
Water Temperature and Thermal Cooling
From: Water Body Temperature Model for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Thermal Cooling, Ken Strzepek, Charles Fant, Yohannes Gebretsadik, Megan Lickley, Brent Boehlert, Steven Chapra, Eric Adams, Andrzej Strzepek and C. Adam Schlosser
21
IGSM-CAM CS3-REF
IGSM-CAM CS3-POL3.7
MIROC CS3-REF
MIROC CS3-POL3.7
Figure 13. Changes in withdrawal allowed for HUCs with once-through cooling technology in 2050.
IGSM-CAM CS3-REF
IGSM-CAM CS3-POL3.7
MIROC CS3-REF
MIROC CS3-POL3.7
Figure 14. Changes in withdrawal allowed for HUCs with recirculating cooling technology in 2050.
Challenge: Climate Variability and Extreme Events
Electricity investments need to consider the confluence of demand increasing and supply decreasing effects: • heat waves effec.ng both
supplies and demands • low wind • droughts Along with demand management, storage, infrastructure more generally
BoNom line: For IA research to explore these factors, it needs to address events taking place on the ,me scale of days to weeks to years and at local to regional scales.
Example: Electricity Impacts
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
SSP1
SSP2
SSP3
SSP4
SSP5
Popula,on SSP 3
SSP 4 SSP 2
SSP 5 SSP 1
SSP1 Fast
SSP2 Central
SSP3 Slow
SSP4 Fast/Central
SSP5 Fast
Urbaniza,on
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
GDP pe
r cap
its ($/cap
-‐PP
P)
GDP/cap
SSP 1: Sustainability
SSP 3: Fragmenta.on
SSP 4: Inequality
SSP 5: Conven.onal Development
SSP 2: Middle of the Road
SSP 3
SSP 4 SSP 2
SSP 5
SSP 1
China
Eastern Africa
La.n America
Western Europe
Working Group III contribu.on to the IPCC Fioh Assessment Report
Emissions and concentra,ons are expected to con,nue to rise despite improvements in technology.
! !
Global GHG Emissions Global GHG Concentrations
Global mean surface temperature increases in 2100 in baseline scenarios…range from 3.7°C to 4.8°C above the average for 1850–1900 for a median climate response. They range from 2.5°C to 7.8°C when including climate uncertainty (5th to 95th percentile range)
4.5°F to 14°F
The Challenges of Full-Coupling in Highly-Resolved IA Research
25
Energy Water Land Socio-
Economics
Climate
Challenge 1. Spa.ally-‐ and temporally-‐resolved climate informa.on that effec.vely represents uncertainty
Challenge 2. Intermediate Responses (e.g., response surfaces for agricultural yields)
Challenge 3. “Hooks” to take on climate or intermediate informa.on in IA models, incorpora.ng higher-‐resolu.on phenomenon
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