HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan in a warmer world
H.E. Markus Meier1,2
1Research Department, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological
Institute
2Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University
E-mail: [email protected]
Content
Results of the ECOSUPPORT project Discussion of limitations of the approach Recommendations for future research
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Baltic Sea - how to approach the future?
COD SPRAT
Combined effects of climate change and nutrient loads
Ensemble modelling to quantify uncertainty
Decision support to policy makers
Baltic Sea - how to approach the future?
COD
11 partner institutes from 7 Baltic Sea
countries 2009-2011
Advanced modeling tool for scenarios of the Baltic Sea
ECOsystem to SUPPORT decision making
www.baltex-research.eu/ecosupport
Baltic Sea: future projections
COD SPRAT
• 4 climate projections 1961-2099
• 2 different global climate models
• A1B and A2 scenarios
• 2 realizations
• 1(2) regional climate model (RCAO, CLM)
• 1(2) hydrological models
• 3 Baltic Sea models (BALTSEM, ERGOM, RCO-SCOBI)
• 3(4) nutrient load scenarios: BSAP, (CLEG), REF, BAU
• Total: 38(58) scenario simulations
Ensemble mean volume averaged temperature and salinity
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(Source: Meier et al., 2011a)
Ensemble average changes of the annual mean biologically available total nitrogen
and phosphorus loads
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(Source: Meier et al., 2011a)
Ensemble average vertical profiles and changes between 2069–2098 and 1978–2007 in oxygen
concentration at Gotland Deep
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observations BAU
REF
BSAP
(Source: Meier et al., 2011a)
Volume averaged anoxic areas
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REF
BSAP
BAU
observations (Source: Meier et al., 2011a)
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Ensemble mean changes between 2069–2098 and 1978–2007 of a–d annual mean phytoplankton concentration (in mg Chl m-3) and e–h Secchi depth (in m)
BSAP CLEG REF BAU
(Source: Meier et al., 2012c)
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BAU REF BSAP
Primary production
Phosphorus release from the sediments
Sediment phosphorus pool
Denitrification
Ratio between release and phosphorus sediment pool
Ratio between denitrification and nitrogen supply
Nitrogen release from the sediments
Nitrogen fixation
(Source: Meier et al., 2012c)
Conclusions • In future climate, increased loads and
temperature dependent rates of biogeochemical processes may result in an overall intensification of internal nutrient cycling, including substantial increases in both primary production of organic matter and oxygen consumption for its mineralization.
Conclusions • Without drastic nutrient load abatements
hypoxic and anoxic areas are projected to increase. The BSAP does not result in an oligotrophic Baltic Sea (“prior to 1960s” roughly).
• ECOSUPPORT was a big step beyond the state-of-the-art because we used
1. transient simulations 1960-2100 (1850-2100) 2. multi-model ensemble approach
AMBIO Special Issue,
September 2012
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Conclusions Uncertainties of the projections are dominated by 1. unknown nutrient loads (bioavailability,
nutrient retention in the coastal zone, scenarios),
2. biases of the GCMs/RCMs (hydrological cycle, estuarine circulation) and
3. biases of the biogeochemical models. For instance, we found largely differing sensitivities of the models to changing nutrient loads. In addition, the northern Baltic Sea biogeochemistry seems to be less well described.
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Monthly mean 2m air temperature at Gotland Deep for 1980-2006 (RCA with 50km)
(Source: Meier et al. 2011b)
Water temperature
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SST changes versus air temperature changes for winter and summer
(Source: Meier et al., 2004c)
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2013-02-07
Seasonal SST changes (°C) RCAO/HadCM3 A1B (upper) and RCAO/ECHAM5 A1B (lower) 2089-2060 minus 1970-1999
DJF MAM JJA SON
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2013-02-07
Seasonal SST changes (°C) RCAO/HadCM3 A1B (upper) and RCAO/ECHAM5 A1B (lower) 2089-2060 minus 1970-1999
DJF MAM JJA SON
Northern Baltic amplification confirmed by satellite data
Salinity
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Ensemble mean volume averaged temperature and salinity
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(Source: Meier et al., 2011a)
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Relative changes in precipitation (in percent) for the period 2090–2099, relative to 1980–1999. Values are
multi-model averages based on the SRES A1B scenario for December to February (left) and June to August
(right).
White areas are where less than 66% of the models agree in the sign of the change and stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the
change.
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Relative changes in precipitation (in percent) for the period 2090–2099, relative to 1980–1999. Values are
multi-model averages based on the SRES A1B scenario for December to February (left) and June to August
(right).
White areas are where less than 66% of the models agree in the sign of the change and stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the
change.
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2013
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Median profiles of salinity at monitoring station BY15 for present climate 1961-1990 (black solid line, shaded areas indicate the +/- 2 standard deviation band calculated from two-daily values for 1903-1998) and in projections for 2071-2100 (colored lines). In (a) only effects from wind changes are considered whereas in (b) projections based upon wind and freshwater inflow changes are shown. Numbers in the legend correspond to the different scenario runs. (Source: Meier et al. 2006)
Salinity at Gotland Deep
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Kattegat
Baltic proper
Bothnian Sea
Bothnian Bay
Gulf of Riga
Gulf of Finland
Total
Runoff
Source: Meier et al. (2012b)
27 Sensitivity of salinity to the freshwater supply
sensitivity experiments
scenarios
natural variability
present climate
(Source: Meier and Kauker, 2003b)
Recommendations for future research
1.New scenario simulations are needed based upon IPCC AR5 (sea ice, hydrological cycle, larger ensemble, saltwater inflows, sea level rise)
2.Climate - land use – socioeconomy interaction/feedback
3.More plausible nutrient load scenarios consistent with large-scale developments
4.Multi-stressor approach (warming, de-oxygenation, eutrophication, overfishing, invasive species, pollutants)
5.Cost-effective implementation strategies of the BSAP will be developed based upon the information from spatially and temporally highly resolved modelling.
BALTEX and BSAP 7th Study Conference on BALTEX Borgholm, Island of Öland, Sweden, 10 to 14 June 2013 Changes in Energy, Water and Matter Cycles - 20 Years of
BALTEX Research Building Regional Earth System Knowledge - A future
programme for the Baltic Sea region
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Vision: Open international and interdisciplinary collaboration network providing service to society in the respect that thematic assessments (like BACC) provide an overview over knowledge gaps which need to be filled (e.g. by funded projects).
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Thank you for your attention!
Cyanobacteria
bloom 2008
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