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HCM 2010 PRINCIPLESWORKSHOPJuly 29, 20071
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AGENDA
Purpose of the HCM
Delivery Format
Research Products
Chapter Contents Other Issues
Reaffirmation of Motions 2001+
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I. PURPOSEOFTHEHCM
Target Audience
Purpose
Objectives
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PURPOSEOFHCM 2000
To provide transportation practitioners and
researchers with a consistent system of techniques
for the evaluation of the quality of service on
highway and street facilities
(Ch. 1)
Quality of serviceA performance indicator of a
travelers perceived satisfaction with the trip. (Ch. 5)
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NCHRP 3-92 PURPOSE
The manual will provide a comprehensive set of
methodologies for quantifying congestion and
overall facility performance and an integrated
systems analysis approach for sizing facilities and
for determining geometric design parameters.
The approach will be applicable to automobile, truck,
bus, bicycle, and pedestrian travel on a highway, street
facility, sidewalk, or shared-use path in the public street
or highway right-of-way.
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OPTIONS?
Is HCM the tool to assess current and future multimodal
traffic performance for given geometry, control,
demand?
Is HCM the tool to find the best geometry that delivers a
target performance for given demand and control? Is HCM the tool to find best control for given demand
and geometry?
All of the above?
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II. FORMATFORDELIVERYOFHCM 2010
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II. FORMATFORDELIVERYOFHCM 2010
Multiple Documents, Single Document?
Paper or Web-based (or both)?
MUTCD/HCMAG examples
Maintenance of HCM
WebBoard
Errata, Chapter updates
Integration with
HCMAG, MUTCD, AASHTO 8
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III. DESIREDRESEARCHPRODUCTS
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III. DESIREDRESEARCHPRODUCTS
Draft chapter
One clean copy
One redline/strikeout copy
Software engine
for testing method.
Validation Memo
comparing accuracy of current to proposed method.
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VALIDATIONMEMO
A real world validation data set comparing the
accuracy of the current HCM method and the
proposed method against field measured results.
A simulation model may be used to generate the real
world results, only if the model has been properlycalibrated and validated to the specific conditions of the
simulated real world problem.
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ACCEPTANCEOFNEWMETHODS
Any new or refined method must demonstrate that it
is more accurate, more sensitive, or more cost-
effective than the current HCM method for
predicting capacity and/or performance.
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IV. HCM PRINCIPLES
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HCM 2000 (TEPLY) LOS PRINCIPLES
LOS A to E included will be defined by a single
measure of effectiveness (MOE) for each facility
type.
This single MOE will be related to the users
perception of the quality of service.
LOS F shall be defined to occur when either the
user perceived MOE exceeds some pre-defined
threshold, or when demand exceeds capacity.
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TEPLYSMOE PRINCIPLES
MOE's are those performance measures that lead
to LOS determination.
Ideally, these MOE's will have the following
attributes:
be perceivable by the facility user,
be measurable or can be derived using measurable
factors,
can be well defined for HCM users,
be sensitive to changes in traffic, roadway, and controlconditions.
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TEPLY: PERFORMANCEMEASURES
In addition to MOEs, each chapter should include
performance measures that link to environmental,
economic, safety analyses, and demand
forecasting.
Analysis period will be an input parameter.
One of the performance measures shall be a time-
dimension related measure, such as travel time,
speed, or delay.
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TEPLY: TREATMENTOFDEMAND
The committee recognizes that the quality of
operation at a facility influences demand.
Nevertheless, modeling of demand changes due to
operating conditions is outside the scope of the
HCM.
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V. ISSUESFOR2010ANDBEYOND
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V. ISSUESFOR2010ANDBEYOND
Definition of Capacity
Travel Time Reliability
The Question of LOS
Duration (Static vs Dynamic analysis) Uncertainty, Sensitivity, Accuracy & Defaults
Interfacing with Outside Software
Planning and Preliminary Engineering
Part IV Corridor and Areawide Analysis
Part V
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CAPACITYDEFINED
HCM 2000
The maximum sustainable flow rate at which vehicles
or persons reasonably can be expected to traverse a
point or uniform segment of a lane or roadway during a
specified time period under given roadway, geometric,traffic, environmental, and control conditions
Issues
Variability of capacity
Measurement Task Force formed 1/2007
Lily Elefteriadou
Identify research needs 20
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TRAVELTIMERELIABILITY
Should HCM address travel time reliability?
If so, How to address it?
How to define it?
How to predict it?
Task Force formed 1/2007
Lily Elefteriadou
Identify research needs
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THEQUESTIONOFLOS
What is it?
letter grades, not performance
Should we keep it?
If so, in same or modified form?
Should we go beyond LOS F?
If so, how?
Should we get into Duration?
If so, how?
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DURATIONOFCONGESTION
HCM has traditionally been static analysis
Peak 15 minutes of hour
To deal with duration, we need dynamic analysis Onset of congestion
Dissipation of congestion.
Time slice data and analysis
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UNCERTAINTY, SENSITIVITY, ACCURACY
Should information on the uncertainty of HCM
results be provided to users?
How about the impacts of using defaults? Sensitivity to different inputs.
If so, what is best way to convey the info?
Qualitatively? Numerically?
95% Confidence intervals?
Standard error, elasticities?
Where do we get the information?24
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INTERFACEWITHOUTSIDESOFTWARE
Do we want to better interface with outsiders?
Options
Tags in webHCM to support outside software help calls Programming Guide Appendices for chapters
Flow charts, allowable input ranges, treatment of exceptions
Software validation data sets
Others?
Promotion of Orphan Chapters?
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PLANNING& PRELIMENGINEERINGINHCM
Motion #05-08: The Committee adopts the following
Desirable Characteristics of Planning Applications
as guidelines for the development of planning
applications within the HCM.
The planning application(s) should be able to produceestimates of Level of Service for the entire facility,
section, segment or control point.
Additional Planning Application(s) should be provided (if
necessary) for estimating mean travel time and/or delay
for facilities, segments, and points., or as needed to
effectively determine size and configuration of these
elements.
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PLANNINGINTHEHCM #2
Planning application(s) that produce level of service
results should produce an estimate of the hourly
demand to hourly capacity ratio to quantify the degree
of oversaturation.
Planning application(s) that produce level of serviceresults should get the same Level of Service as
operations analysis when using the same input data,
assumptions and defaults.
Planning Applications should require the use of
minimum basic input data necessary to providemeaningful results in a given procedure, such as: facility
type, area type, general terrain type, hourly demand,
basic geometric configuration, segment lengths,
interchange spacing or number of intersection control
points, and type of control.
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PLANNINGINTHEHCM #3
Defaults should be developed to represent a range
of values to include minimum, average, and ideal
conditions, and should also include representative
values of model inputs depicting a variety of input
conditions. Guidance should also be provided onmethods for estimating input values, the
appropriate use of default values, and other
simplifying assumptions.
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PARTIVCORRIDORANDAREAWIDE
ANALYSIS
Still germane in light of Part V?
Do we keep? Do we separate?
Do we spin off portions into a Planning Guide?
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PARTV
What is purpose of Part V?
What is name of Part V?
Why should an HCM user read Part V?
When would they read it?
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VI. REAFFIRMATIONOFMOTIONS
2001-07-01: The committee reaffirms the principle
that service measures should reflect traveler's
perception of qualify of service. (Strong, McLeod)
2001-07-02 : The committee desires research to
identify the appropriate performance measures forquantifying traveler's perception of quality of
service. (Harwood, Vandehey)
2001-07-03 : The Committee recognizes there are
significant issues with the current Level of Servicestructure (as identified in Session 7 of the 2001
Midyear Meeting) and encourages investigations to
address these issues. (Strong, Flannery) 31
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Motion 2002-6: to support the effort of exploring
uncertainty and its handling in the HCM. The
expected outcome of these activities is a suggested
framework for handling uncertainty in future
versions of the HCM. (Tarko, Rouphail) MOTION 2002-06-8: To direct the signalized and
unsignalized intersection subcommittees to
consider additional performance measures
including Ped Delay, Ped LOS, Bike Delay and BikeLOS on worksheets for their respective application
chapters in future versions of the HCM. (Virkler,
McLeod.) 32
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MOTION 2002-06-10: To direct each subcommittee
responsible for a computational procedure to
present for approval at the Committee Meeting in
January 2003 its plan and timetable for
demonstrating the intended computational results ofexercising its methodology across the domain of
inputs to which it is intended to apply. (List, Kyte)
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Motion 2003-07-01: The HCM should NOT provide
detailed descriptions of specific simulation models.
(Bloomberg, List)
Motion 2003-07-02: The HCM should provide a
typology of other models. (List, Ruehr)
Motion 2003-07-03: The HCM should provide a list
of other references and web sites available
regarding other models, excluding manual of
specific software packages. (Elefteriadou,Marcuson)
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Motion 05-3 (Creasey ,Bryson) The Planning and
Preliminary Engineering subcommittee is directed
to work with each of the operational chapter
subcommittees to a) assess current deficiencies if
any, in the current deployment of planning andpreliminary engineering applications in the Highway
Capacity Manual, and the applicability and form of
the planning and preliminary engineering
applications to be used in conjunction with theoperational procedures, and b) determine
appropriate defaults, assumptions and
simplifications to be used in planning and
preliminary engineering applications and provide
id f th i li ti d
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