Has Idaho Bitten Off More Than It Can Chew?
Climate Change Impacts in the Snake River Basin
Nathan VanRheenen and Richard N. Palmer
Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
-University of Washington-
www.tag.washington.edu
CIG Seminar - May 27, 2004
Politically Incorrect Title:
Future Streamflow Scenarios and System Management in the Face of:
Dwindling fish stocks Thirsty farmers
Demanding energy users Effective lobbyists
Government “solutions” Climate change
Tragically slow decision-making processes
In the beginning …
Colsim, Alan Hamlet Developed to investigate climate change impacts on Columbia River Basin water resources
Fish, Power, Irrigation, M&I Very effective for Col R
main stem
Major Drawback Snake River Basin
inadequately represented Most significant tributary 427 TAF Flow Aug. rule
Our Goal (Palmer, Lettenmaier, VanRheenen, Hamlet)
Develop a well-represented Snake River model of similar scale and usefulness of Colsim
Goals of Research
What are the long-range impacts of climate change on the managed system? Goal: Develop a model that incorporates
current and future operating rules and management strategies
Simulation Model of Snake River Basin (SnakeSim)
How can the potential impacts of climate change be mitigated? Goal: Develop a model that provides the
“best” management strategy for SRB users Optimization Model of SRB (SnakeOpt)
Background – Snake River Basin
Snake River – 1000 miles long 20 major reservoirs 14 MAF storage 17 MAF demands/water rights 700 MW hydropower capacity Brief history
Snake River Basin to Brownlee
Snake River Plain Aquifer
Political Landscape
Many users Many opinions Scientific controversy Established positions Political activism
Political Landscape
No More Ignoring the Obvious – Idaho Sucks Itself Dry – HCN, 2/95
“The department has handed out water rights and groundwater permits as if there’s no tomorrow."
"The fish were there first, but they didn’t fill out the (water rights) forms."
Political Landscape
1995 – BOR agrees to provide 427 TAF/yr for flow augmentation Goal likely to be met 80% of years Irrigation shortages that result
72 TAF in ave years, 335 TAF in dry years 427 TAF goal unmet in last 3 yrs due to
drought
“Flow augmentation is a failed experiment that has been scientifically discredited and should be dropped.” - Water Coalition President, Oct 2003
Political Landscape
Snake River water right moratorium ends, but permits will not be processed – DOE, 7/99
To Breach or Not to Breach – HCN, 2/00 Salmon Plan Calls for Sacrifices, Federal
Remedies Contain Something for All Sides to Criticize – SSR, 7/00
Dredging Plans Stall on the Snake River – HCN, 3/03
Andrus says Dams a Problem, but Breaching is Impractical – SSR, 9/03
Calls for “Dramatically revamping river management policies”
Political Landscape
Advocates file suit to help protect fish
– SSR, 1/17/04 Fish Lobby: “Operation of the bureau's upper
Snake projects has a profound impact on the survival of Snake River salmon, and even affects fish downstream in the Columbia.”
Water Coalition Lobby: “It's an unfortunate reality that they're fixated on trying to secure Idaho water and send it downriver for a failed experiment.”
Political Landscape
Snake River Basin Adjudication May 15, 2004 - ID, BOR reach agreement with
Nez Perce after 10 years of negotiations Agreement
Tribe 50 taf water right for tribal lands, dated 1855 $23M for new sewer and water system $50M trust for land/water acquisition + $7M land
200 taf of Dworshak storage for summer flow aug 427 taf Flow Augmentation Rule nearly “guaranteed”
Snake River Models
SnakeSim
VICHydrology Model
Changes in Mean Temperature and
Precipitation or Bias Corrected Output
from GCMs
Jackson
Palisades
IslandPark
Ririe
Blackfoot
LakeWalcott
AmericanFalls
MilnerCJ Strike
Owyhee
Brownlee
Hell’sCanyon
Dworshak
Anderson
Cascade/Deadwood
Arrowrock/Lucky Peak
Release
Release
Release
Isp2
Henry’sFork Jackson
Release
ReleaseBlackfoot
Ririe
ReleaseReleaseRelease
Release
Release
Release
Release
Release
Anderson
Cascade
DworshakRelease
Release
ShoshoneTwin Falls
HagermanKing Hill
DikeWileyBliss
Upper Salmon A&B
Swan Falls
Owyhee
JSK
Oxbow
Reservoir
Node
Power Plant
Reach
Fish Target
Flood Target
Irrigation District
Delivery
WD01
WD27
WD27-1
WD65
WD63
Release
ISP
PAL
PAL5AMFMIL2
AND
ALP
CDW
CJS2
CJS3
BRN
DWR
DWR3
Clarkston
Legend
WD02
WD01-1
WD01-3
WD01-2
WD01-4
WD01-5
WD01-7
WD01-6
Rir2
Pal3
PAL
WD01-8
WD01-9
Pal2
WD01-10
WD01-11
WD01-12WD01-13WD01-14WD01-15WD01-16
WD01-17
WD63-1
WD63-2
WD63-3
WD02-1WD02-2
Cjs
ALP
Cdw2
WD65-1
WD65-2
Dwr2
Dwr3
Dwr4
Pal5
Pal4
Mil2
Cjs2
Cjs3
SnakeOpt
PNW Climate Change ScenariosDelta T, 2020s
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
J F M A M J J A S O N D
De
gre
es
C
hadCM2
hadCM3
PCM3
ECHAM4
mean
Delta T, 2040s
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
J F M A M J J A S O N D
De
gre
es
C
hadCM2
hadCM3
PCM3
ECHAM4
mean
Precipitation Fraction, 2020s
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Frac
tion
hadCM2
hadCM3
PCM3
ECHAM4
mean
Precipitation Fraction, 2040s
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Fra
ctio
nhadCM2
hadCM3
PCM3
ECHAM4
mean
~ + 1.7 C ~ + 2.5 C
Somewhat wetter winters and perhaps somewhat dryer summers
Snake System Flows – Jackson Lk
Flow at Jackson Lake
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Septh
ou
sa
nd
ac
re-f
ee
t
base
comp2020
comp2040
Snake System Flows – Milner
Flow at Milner
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
tho
us
an
d a
cre
-fe
et
base
comp2020
comp2040
Snake System Flows – Boise/Payette
Flows into Boise and Payette Rivers
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Septh
ou
sa
nd
ac
re-f
ee
t
base
comp2020
comp2040
Snake System Flows – Dworshak R.
Flow at Dworshak
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Septh
ou
sa
nd
ac
re-f
ee
t
base
comp2020
comp2040
Snake System Flows – Clarkston
Flow at Clarkston
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Septh
ou
sa
nd
ac
re-f
ee
t
base
comp2020
comp2040
Overall Streamflow Trends - comp2020
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Oct
Dec
Feb Apr
Jun
Aug
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%O
ct
De
c
Fe
b
Ap
r
Jun
Au
g
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Oct
De
c
Fe
b
Ap
r
Jun
Au
g
-60%
-30%
0%
30%
60%
90%
120%
Oct
De
c
Fe
b
Ap
r
Jun
Au
g
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
Oct
De
c
Fe
b
Ap
r
Jun
Au
g
SnakeSim Operations Model
SnakeSim Operations Model
Purpose: Measure the projected impacts of climate change on SRB water resources
Considers Major surface water features Accepted management practices/rules System uses
e.g., flood control, irrigation, fish, hydropower Groundwater/Surface water interactions
SnakeSim – Upper Snake Storage
Upper Snake Storage
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Septh
ou
sa
nd
ac
re-f
ee
t
base
comp2020
comp2040
SnakeSim – Middle Snake Storage
Middle Snake Storage
800
1200
1600
2000
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Septh
ou
sa
nd
ac
re-f
ee
t
base
comp2020
comp2040
SnakeSim – Boise/Payette Storage
Boise/Payette Storage
600
1000
1400
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Septh
ou
sa
nd
ac
re-f
ee
t
base
comp2020
comp2040
SnakeSim – Dworshak Storage
Dworshak Storage
1800
2200
2600
3000
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Septh
ou
sa
nd
ac
re-f
ee
t
base
comp2020
comp2040
SnakeSim – Snake System Storage
Total Snake Storage
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
tho
us
an
d a
cre
-fe
et
base
comp2020
comp2040
Overall Storage Trends - comp2020
% Change in STO - Upper Snake
-15%
-5%
5%
Oct
De
c
Fe
b
Ap
r
Jun
Au
g% Change in STO - Middle Snake
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Oct
Dec
Feb Apr
Jun
Aug
% Change in STO - SRB Storage
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
Oct
Dec
Feb Apr
Jun
Aug
SnakeSim – Groundwater Response
Recharge/discharge change as irrigation patterns change
Decreases in irrigation result in decreases in recharge and discharge
BOR estimates SRPA elev decreases 40 feet in next 50 years due to irrig. restrictions
Impacts of mgmt likely far greater than impacts of climate change on gw
Flow at Milner
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
tho
us
an
d a
cre
-fe
et
base
comp2020
comp2040
SRP Aquifer Discharge to Snake River
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Ch
an
ge
fro
m B
as
e C
as
e (
taf)
comp2020
comp2040
Snake River Plain Aquifer
SnakeSim – Implications
Nature of flow shifts due to climate change are significant…
Water quality and fish implications System operations implications Need to investigate impacts on water rights
system and conjunctive uses Managed recharge as a cc mitigation strategy
But, “best” mitigation techniques aren’t known
SnakeOpt
Purpose: Develop a model that provides the “best” management strategy for SRB users
Considers Major surface water features System uses
e.g., flood control, irrigation, fish, hydropower Groundwater impacts 5 Major Irrigation Districts
Economic Objective Function
Jackson
Palisades
IslandPark
Ririe
Blackfoot
LakeWalcott
AmericanFalls
MilnerCJ Strike
Owyhee
Brownlee
Hell’sCanyon
Dworshak
Anderson
Cascade/Deadwood
Arrowrock/Lucky Peak
Release
Release
Release
Isp2
Henry’sFork Jackson
Release
ReleaseBlackfoot
Ririe
ReleaseReleaseRelease
Release
Release
Release
Release
Release
Anderson
Cascade
DworshakRelease
Release
ShoshoneTwin Falls
HagermanKing Hill
DikeWileyBliss
Upper Salmon A&B
Swan Falls
Owyhee
JSK
Oxbow
Reservoir
Node
Power Plant
Reach
Fish Target
Flood Target
Irrigation District
Delivery
WD01
WD27
WD27-1
WD65
WD63
Release
ISP
PAL
PAL5AMFMIL2
AND
ALP
CDW
CJS2
CJS3
BRN
DWR
DWR3
Clarkston
Legend
WD02
WD01-1
WD01-3
WD01-2
WD01-4
WD01-5
WD01-7
WD01-6
Rir2
Pal3
PAL
WD01-8
WD01-9
Pal2
WD01-10
WD01-11
WD01-12WD01-13WD01-14WD01-15WD01-16
WD01-17
WD63-1
WD63-2
WD63-3
WD02-1WD02-2
Cjs
ALP
Cdw2
WD65-1
WD65-2
Dwr2
Dwr3
Dwr4
Pal5
Pal4
Mil2
Cjs2
Cjs3
SnakeOpt - Approach
LP/SLP Decomposition Objective Function
5-year Model Maximize
Z = Flood control benefit+ Environ. benefit+ Farming profit+ Hydropower profit
Subject to Inflows, PET, Precip,
Crop values and costs, Energy demand, Groundwater
Year
Etc.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 .. n
5-yr Model Optimum
Redefine constraints,Add Value Judgments
1-yr Model Optimum
Redefine constraints
SnakeOpt - Approach
LP/SLP Decomposition
Objective Function 1-year Model
Redefine constraints with 5-year model month 12 conditions
Add value judgments to obj fn components
Year
Etc.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 .. n
5-yr Model Optimum
Redefine constraints,Add Value Judgments
1-yr Model Optimum
Redefine constraints
SnakeOpt - Approach
2 Applications1. Long-Range Planning
20-40 yrs to planning horizon
Evaluate long-term optimal system operation strategies
2. Annual Planning Given 3-5 year forecast
and predicted ENSO/PDO states
How much water can irrigators, utilities, and fish get in the next year to ensure a sustainable future?
Year
Etc.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 .. n
5-yr Model Optimum
Redefine constraints,Add Value Judgments
1-yr Model Optimum
Redefine constraints
SnakeOpt – 1st Cut (no hydropower)
427 TAF met
SnakeOpt - Demonstration
No hydropower due to running SLP time No flood control costs/benefits
Loose Flow/Storage constraints No environmental costs/benefits
Min flow target constraints
Integrated SnakeSim/SnakeOpt Framework
Purpose To test optimal management strategies in
the simulated system and evaluate their “true” effectiveness
Approach Perform rigorous sensitivity analysis in
SnakeSim around optimal values to generate tradeoff curves for management
Integrated SnakeSim/SnakeOpt Framework
Preliminary feedback from IDWR as to the general approach and purpose “Potentially of tremendous value” Allow first glimpses into impacts of “shifting
uses” Adaptation of approach to other
regional water suppliers
SRB Modeling Effort - Horizon
End June Complete SnakeOpt and integrated
SnakeSim/SnakeOpt model Mid June
Incorporate 85-year streamflows into SnakeSim and SnakeOpt
Improved ET calculation June, July
Interview ID water users for value judgment data
Meet with IDWR to discuss results, etc.
Top Related