Growth SolutionsStrategies and Asset Classes Well-Positioned for
Capital Appreciation
Derek Peterson - ModeratorSenior Vice President, Walton Int’l Group
J. David KelseyManaging Principal, Hamilton Point Investments
Bill LehewDirector of Strategic Accounts, Hines
H. Michael SchwartzChairman & CEO, Strategic Storage
Key Trends Population Growth Drives Demand for Development
U.S. Population Growth Trend1
Current United States population: 316 million3
Population growth projected at approximately 3 million per year4
1915 1967 2006 20502
Population(Millions) 100 200 300 400
Concentration of Growth
1 U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, August 14, 2008.2 U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Projections of the Population and Components of Change for the US - 2015-20163 Census.gov, Population Clock, August 8, 2013.4 National Association of Realtors, June 17, 2009, Presentation to Real Estate Caucus of U.S. Congress.5 Metropolitan Institute Census Report Series, Census Report 05:01, “Beyond Megalopolis: Exploring America’s new ‘ Megapolitan’ Geography” (Virginia Tech, May 2005)
Over 70% of the United States population is projected to live in one of ten regions known as megapolitans by 2040.5
Key Trends
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*201
30
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Th
ou
san
ds
Home starts dropped to unprecedented levelsMulti-Family Starts2 Single-Family Starts2
• 3 million more people each year• 1 to 1.4 million household formations
• need to account for 300,000 demolitions• need 1.3 to 1.7 million new units1
*Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economics and Mortgage Market Analysis, October 10, 2013.1 National Association of Realtors, June 17, 2009; Presentation to Real Estate Caucus of U.S. Congress. 2 U.S. Census Bureau, New Residential Construction, January 2011 and January 2013.
1.3
Key Trends
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*201
30
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1,000
1,500
2,000
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Th
ou
san
ds
Home starts dropped to unprecedented levels
• 3 million more people each year• 1 to 1.4 million household formations
• need to account for 300,000 demolitions• need 1.3 to 1.7 million new units1
*Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economics and Mortgage Market Analysis, October 10, 2013.1 National Association of Realtors, June 17, 2009; Presentation to Real Estate Caucus of U.S. Congress. 2 U.S. Census Bureau, New Residential Construction, January 2011 and January 2013.
1.3
Multi-Family Starts2 Single-Family Starts2
Key Trends
1 U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, State Population Estimates 2000 – 2010, February 2011. U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Historical National Population 1900 - 1999, revised June 28, 2000. 2 U.S. Census Bureau, National Housing Starts Annual Data 1959 – 2010.* Represents new privately owned housing units.
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U.S. Population Housing Starts
72% decrease in housing starts* from peak of 2.1
million to 587,000
7% increase in U.S. Population since 2003 from
290 million to 309 million
Population1
(000s)
Housing Starts2
(000s)
Key Trends
LANDABSORPTION
PERMITS
PEOPLE
JOBS
Determining Future Demand for Development
Top U.S. Employment Marketsby Job Growth from 2000-2012
1 Houston 440,800
2 Washington D.C. 361,000
3 Dallas-Fort Worth 255,000
4 Phoenix-Tucson 178,6005 Inland Empire 163,2006 New York 157,0007 Austin 150,5008 San Antonio 132,7009 Orlando 130,800
10 Las Vegas 125,90011 Miami 120,30012 Nashville 88,00013 Raleigh-Durham 85,30014 Charlotte 80,30015 Salt Lake City 75,40016 Edinburg 71,90017 Baltimore 67,50018 San Diego 65,00019 Seattle 63,10020 Indianapolis 60,300
PERMITSPEOPLEJOBS
LAND ABSORPTION
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, MSA Employment Ranking, 2000-2012
Walton Target Markets
Historical Trends: Job Growth
Top U.S. MSAs by Net Domestic Migration (2000-2012)
#1 Phoenix-Tucson 586,019
#2 Inland Empire 489,209
#3 Atlanta 465,246
#4 Dallas-Fort Worth 408,416
#5 Las Vegas 316,937
#6 Houston 305,492
#7 Austin 295,232
#8 Tampa 293,491
#9 Charlotte 282,638
#10 Orlando 258,381
#11 Raleigh-Durham 220,584
#12 San Antonio 217,874
#13 Nashville 147,457
#14 Sacramento 145,242
#15 Portland 144,313
#16 Fort Myers 143,853
#17 Jacksonville 136,469
#18 Sarasota 115,912
#19 Denver 108,262
#20 Boise 91,577
Walton Target Markets
Historical Trends: Net Domestic Migration
Source: U.S Census Bureau – Estimates of the Components of Population Change for Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas: April 1, 2000– July 1, 2009; July 1, 2010 – July 1, 2011; July 1, 2011 – July 1, 2012 Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, Net Domestic Migration by MSA, April 2009-April 2010
Top U.S. MSAs by Population GrowthFrom 2000-2012
1 Dallas-Fort Worth 1,504,8032 New York 1,479,1153 Houston 1,437,6214 Atlanta 1,175,9265 Inland Empire 1,072,5186 Phoenix-Tucson 1,050,8737 Washington D.C 1,039,3118 Charlotte 956,1529 Miami 736,911
10 Sarasota 720,04211 Los Angeles 653,97112 Las Vegas 607,38913 Austin 568,58814 Orlando 566,83915 San Antonio 514,74116 Seattle 499,77817 Denver 451,18718 Minneapolis 440,64819 Tampa 438,60520 Nashville 409,113
PERMITSPEOPLEJOBS
LAND ABSORPTION
Walton Target Markets
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates for MSA 2000-2009; US Census Bureau, Population Estimates for MSA 2010-2012.
Historical Trends: Population Growth
Top U.S. MSA by Average Annual U.S. Single-Family Permits Issued (2000-2012)
1 Houston 450,992 2 Atlanta 443,398 3 Dallas-Fort Worth 398,359 4 Phoenix-Tucson 380,671 5 Chicago 278,009 6 Inland Empire 270,410 7 Washington D.C. 250,775 8 Las Vegas 220,526 9 New York 215,559
10 Orlando 186,429 11 Tampa 167,723 12 Charlotte 167,289 13 Seattle 156,213 14 Miami 152,687 15 Denver 152,483 16 Minneapolis 149,539 17 Philadelphia 149,351 18 Los Angeles 147,911 19 Austin 141,370 20 Detroit 131,726
Walton Target Markets
Source: US Census Bureau, Building Permits by Metropolitan Statistical Area – Annualized 2000-2012.
PERMITSPEOPLEJOBS
LAND ABSORPTION
Historical Trends: Single Family Permits
Real Estate Life Cycle
Most competitive
capital
Least competitive
capital
MultiFamilyMultifamily Fundamentals Are Solid
Jan-99
May-00
Sep-01
Jan-03
May-04
Sep-05
Jan-07
May-08
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Jan-11
May-12
Sep-13
0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%
30-year Mortgage Rate
Source: REIS Reports Source: Freddie Mac
HAMILTON POINT I N V E S T M E N T S
MultiFamily
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500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
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U.S. Household Formation
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2014
P
0
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U.S. Multifamily Unit Completions
Source: US Census Bureau Source: US Census Bureau
HAMILTON POINT I N V E S T M E N T S
Overall U.S. Supply/Demand in Equilibrium
MultiFamilyIndividual Markets Still Hold Opportunity!
Source: Moody’s/RCA CPPI
Source:: CoStar Group, Inc.
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0
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Moody's/RCA Apartment Value Index
HAMILTON POINT I N V E S T M E N T S
Storage Self Storage Market Trends
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Presentation – Self Storage: the State of the Industry
H. Michael SchwartzPresident, CEO
Self Storage Supply Growth
H. Michael SchwartzPresident, CEO
Derek Peterson - ModeratorSenior Vice President, Walton Int’l Group
J. David KelseyManaging Principal, Hamilton Point Investments
Bill LehewDirector of Strategic Accounts, Hines
H. Michael SchwartzChairman & CEO, Strategic Storage
Growth Solutions
QUESTIONS ?
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