PAGE 2
E L E C TI ON O V E R VIE W
• Online Landscape
• Landscape: Lead-Up To The Election
• Presidential Results: What happened?
• Presidential Results: How did it happen?
• Congressional Results: What happened?
• Gubernatorial and Ballot Measure Results: What happened?
• Looking Ahead: On the Issues
PAGE 3
I N I T I AL H E A DL INE S
• Trump’s win represents a stunning upset, going against the vast majority of public polling predictions and every major political forecast.
• Clinton will likely win the national popular vote. This will be the fifth time it has happened in presidential history.
• Clinton was unable to recreate the Obama voter coalition.
• She fell significantly short of expectations across a range of demographic groups that helped elect Barack Obama in 2008 & 2012, indicating the party base was not as energized by Clinton than by Obama.
• She saw key losses in several rust belt states (OH, PA, WI) usually carried by Democrats.
Source: Cook Political Report, NPR, The Fix
PAGE 4
I N I T I AL H E A DL INE S
• Trump overwhelmingly won whites without college degrees, while maintaining the support of white college graduates.
• In the end, GOP voters lined up behind Trump.
• Trump did well among voters who really didn’t like him. Voters embraced Trump despite large misgivings about his personality and policies.
Source: Cook Political Report, NPR, The Fix
PAGE 6
T R U M P D O M IN ATED T H E O N L I NE C O N VER SATI ON L E A D I NG U P T O T H E E L E C TI ON
• Three months ahead of the election, Donald Trump had significantly more online mentions than Hillary Clinton.
• 14 days ahead of election day, there were slightly more Trump mentions online than Clinton mentions. Despite the FBI Director James Comey’s letter to Congress on Hillary Clinton’s e-mails, Trump remained the most talked about candidate ahead of election day.
Data courtesy of Brandwatch React US Presidential Election 2016
PAGE 7
T R U M P S E N TI MEN T M O R E P O S I TIV E P R I O R T O T H E E L E C TIO N
• Trump has had more positive sentiment than Hillary Clinton in online mentions of him during the the last three months and the last 14 days of the campaign.
Data courtesy of Brandwatch React US Presidential Election 2016
PAGE 8
3 0 , 0 0 0 T W E ET S I N A M I N U T E AT 3 A M
Data courtesy of Brandwatch React US Presidential Election 2016
P O P U LA R T O P ICS T H E M O R N IN G A F T ER
• P o p u l a r t o p i c s f r o m 9 : 1 5 A M -1 0 : 1 5 A M E T t h e d a y a f t e r e l e c t i o n d a y c a p t u r e s t h e e l a t i o n a n d d i s a p p o i n t m e n t o f t h e e l e c t o r a t e .
PAGE 9Data courtesy of Brandwatch React US Presidential Election 2016
PAGE 11
V O T E RS W E R E L O O K ING F O R C H A N GE
Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, November 3-5, 2016
43%
54%
Someone who will bring a steady approach to the way government operates even if it means fewer
changes to how things are now
Someone who will bring major changes to the way government operates even if it is not possible to
predict what the changes may be
In thinking about the next president that we’ll be electing, which of the following two statements comes closer to your point of view?
PAGE 12
A N D T R U M P WA S V I E W ED A S A C H A N GE A G E N T; T E L LS I T L I K E I T I S
Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll, October 14-17, 2016
Clinton24%
Trump63%
Not sure14%
Source: CBS News Poll, October 12-16, 2016
Trump ClintonYes, says what he /
she believes 59% 34%
No, says what people want to hear 37% 64%
Would change the way Washington does business
Do you think [Hillary Clinton / Donald Trump] says what [he/she] believes most of the time, or does he
say what [he/she] thinks people want to hear?
PAGE 13
M O S T N AT ION AL P O L LS & M O D E LS S AW A C L I N TO N V I C TORY
Source: HuffPost Pollster, The Upshot
CLINTON
TRUMP
Clinton led in the head to head match-up from the very start of the campaign.
PAGE 15
2 0 1 6 E L E C TI ON R E S U LTS ( S O FA R )
OR
AK
KY
NM
MN
CO
GA
NH
18
3
29
20
312
7
556
43
6
115
9
3
3
5
3
4
38
6
7
10
6
10
6
86 9 16
29
91513
11
20 11
1016
85
RI4
NJ15
CT7
DE3
MD10
DC3
MA12
Clinton228
Trump290
Party change from ‘12
VT3
NH4
1
Not yet decided(MI & NH)
PAGE 16
C L I N TON A P P EA RS P O I S ED T O W I N T H E N AT I O NAL P O P UL AR V O T E
Source Washington Post, History Channel
Clinton59,740,000
47.7%
Trump59,520,000
47.5%• Only 4 times in U.S. history has a candidate won the presidency without winning the popular
vote: (2000 Bush, 1888 Harrison, 1876 Hayes, 1824 Quincy Adams)
• It’s occurred twice in the past 16 years
PAGE 17
T H E E L E C TO RAL M A P
• Trump picked up 5 states from Obama in 2012 (Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa) (6 if Michigan is called).
A little history…
• Trump picked up 1 electoral vote out of Maine (ME-2), the first time a Republican has won anything out of the northeast in sixteen years.
• Trump has won the most electoral votes for a Republican since Reagan in 1984.
• This is the first time since 1984 that a Republican presidential candidate has won Michigan (if called), Wisconsin and Pennsylvania combined.
PAGE 18
A R E C A P O F 2 0 1 2 E L E C T ION
OR
AK
KY
NM
MN
CO
GA
NH
18
4
29
20
312
7
556
43
6
115
9
3
3
5
3
4
38
6
7
10
6
10
6
86 9 16
29
91513
11
20 11
1016
85
VT3
RI4
NJ15
CT7
DE3
MD10
DC3
MA12
NH4
Obama332
Romney206
Party change from ‘08
PAGE 19
A R E C A P O F 2 0 0 8 E L E C T ION
OR
AK
KY
NM
MN
CO
GA
20
4
31
21
311
7
555
43
5
105
9
3
3
4
3
4
38
6
7
10
7
11
6
96 9 15
27
81513
11
21 11
1017
85
VT3
RI4
NJ15
CT7
DE3
MD10
DC3
MA12
NH4
1
Obama365
McCain173
PAGE 21
T U R N OUT WA S D O W N
• 55.6% of eligible voters voted (initial estimate)
• Lowest turnout since 2000 (54.2%), the other popular vote/electoral college split year.
• Trump won with 59.4 million votes. Mitt Romney received 60.9 million votes and lost.
• 18 million fewer voters than in 2012.
PAGE 22
L A R G ES T R E C ORD ED G E N DE R G A P
Source: Exit Polls
2004 2008 2012 2016
Women +3 D +13 D +11 D +12 D
Men +11 R +1 D +7 R +12 R
Gender Gap 14-points 12-points 18-points 24-points
PAGE 23
W H I T E V O T E H A S D R O P PED S I N C E 2 0 0 4 , B U T I N T H E E N D I T D I D N ’ T M ATT ER
Source: Exit Polls
% of Electorate2004 2008 2012 2016
White 77% 74% 72% 70%Black 12% 13% 13% 12%
Hispanic/Latino 8% 8% 10% 11%
Spread2004 2008 2012 2016
White +17R +12R +20R +21RBlack +77D +91D +87D +80D
Hispanic/Latino +9D +36D +44D +36D
• Hispanic vote is a growing part of the electorate but they didn’t turn out for Clinton like they did for Obama in 2012
• African American vote slightly down, but more so in key states like North Carolina, Michigan, and Pennsylvania
PAGE 24
T R U M P O V E RWHE LMI NGLY W O N L E S S E D U CAT ED W H I T ES
Source: Exit Polls
Vote by Education and Race
Clinton Trump
White college-grad women (20%) 51% 45% +6D
White non-college women (17%) 34% 62% +28R
White college-grad men (17%) 39% 54% +15R
White non-college men (17%) 23% 72% +49R
PAGE 25
M I L L E NNIA L T U RN OUT M AT CHE D 2 0 1 2 , B U T F E L L S H O RT O F O B A M A’ S N U M BER S
Source: Exit Polls
% of Electorate2004 2008 2012 2016
18-29 17 18 19 1930-44 29 29 27 2545-64 30 37 38 4065+ 24 16 16 15
Spread2004 2008 2012 2016
18-29 +9D +34D +23D +18D30-44 +7R +6D +7D +8D45-64 +3R +1D +4R +9R65+ +8R +8R +12R +8R
The decrease in Millennial support for Clinton may be due to the increase in their support for third party candidate Gary Johnson
Millennial turnout was at the same level as previous elections –However, their support for the Democratic ticket was lower
PAGE 26
E C O N OMY V I E W ED A S M O S T I M P ORTA NT; T R UM P B E T TER A B L E T O H A N D LE I T
Source: Exit Polls
Most Important Issue Clinton Trump Margin
The Economy 52% 52% 42% +10 D
Terrorism 18% 39% 57% +18 R
Foreign Policy 13% 60% 34% +26 D
Immigration 13% 32% 64% +32 R
Trump was viewed as better able to handle the economy, 49% to 46%
PAGE 27
C L I N TON W I N S O N N E A R LY A L L T R A I TS E X C E PT T H E O N E T H AT M AT T ERE D T H E M O S T
Source: Exit Polls
Can bring change 39%
Spread
+69R
Total
Right experience
Cares about people like me
+82D
Good judgment
21%
20%
15%
+40D
+23D
PAGE 28
T R U M P W I N S V O T E RS W H O A R E A N G R Y A N D D I S S ATI SFI ED W I T H T H E F E D E R AL G O V ERN MENT
5%
24%
46%
23%
Enthusiastic
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Angry
Clinton Trump
78% 20%
75% 20%
45% 49%
18% 77%
Source: Exit Polls
PAGE 29
T R U M P P I C K ED U P M O R E L AT E- DEC IDE RS
When did you finally decide for whom to vote in the presidential election?
% Spread
Last few days 8 +2 R
Last week 6 +12 R
In October 12 +14 R
In September 13 +4 R
Before September 60 +7 D
Source: Exit Polls
PAGE 30
I F T H E Y D I D N’ T L I K E E I T H ER C A N DID ATE, T H E Y V O T ED F O R T R U M P
Among voters who view both Clinton and Trump unfavorably, Trump won nearly half of their vote.
29%
49%
ClintonTrump
Democrats: 46* Republicans: 54
*Two independents caucus with Democrats
PAGE 32
2 0 1 6 S E N ATE: P R E- ELE CTI ON – R A C E S I N P L AY
KY
GA
2016 map favored the Democrats
S E N ATE P O S T-E LEC TIO N: D E M O CRATS P I C K U P T W O S E AT S A S R E P U BL ICA NS R E TAI N C O N TR OL
OR
KY
NM
MN
CO
GA
NH
FL
PA
WI
NV
Johnson: 50.2%Feingold: 46.8%
Toomey: 48.9%McGinty: 47.2%
Rubio: 52.1%Murphy: 44.2%
Cortez Masto: 47.1%Heck: 44.7% NC
Burr: 51.1%Ross: 45.3%
Source: CNN
PAGE 33
MO
Hassan: 48.0%Ayotte: 47.9%
Blunt: 49.4%Kander: 46.2%
IN
Young: 52.2%Bayh: 42.0%
IL
Duckworth: 54.4%Kirk: 40.2%
Democrats: 48 Republicans: 51
(Louisiana votes in a run-off election)
PAGE 34
H O U S E R E S U LTS: R E P UB LIC ANS S U F F ERE D F E W L O S S ES
Source: CNN
Democrats RepublicansPre-Election 188 247Gains / Losses +5 -9Results* 193 238
*4 Seats Still Undecided
• 43 retirements heading into election (25 R, 18 D)• 7 incumbents lost (6 R, 1 D)
Democrats: 18 Republicans: 31 Independents: 1
PAGE 36
2 0 1 6 G O V E RNO RSHI PS: P R E -EL ECTI ON – R A C E S I N P L AY
KY
GA
PAGE 37
2 0 1 6 G O V E RNO RSHI PS: P O S T-E LEC TION
KY
GA
Democrats: 16 Republicans: 33 Independents: 1
Republicans: +2
PAGE 38
B A L L O T M E A SURE S 2 0 1 6 :
¨ Marijuana - Medical Marijuana: • Arkansas – Pass• Florida – Pass• Montana – Pass• North Dakota – Pass
- Recreational Marijuana• Arizona – Fail• California – Pass• Massachusetts – Pass• Maine – To Be Determined• Nevada – Pass
¨ Minimum Wage- Increase Minimum Wage• Arizona – Pass• Colorado – Pass• Maine – Pass• Washington – Pass
- Decrease Minimum Wage for those under 18• South Dakota – Fail
¨ Gun Control- Increase Background Checks• California – Pass• Maine – Fail• Nevada – Pass• Washington – Pass
PAGE 39
B A L L O T M E A SURE S 2 0 1 6 :
¨ Education - Alaska: Funding Postsecondary
Student Loans – Fail- California: Modernizing K-12, Charter,
and Vocational Schools – Pass- Georgia: State Intervention in Failing
Schools – Fail- Massachusetts: Funding New Charter
Schools – Fail- Oklahoma: State Funding for Public
Schools – Fail - Oregon: Dropout Prevention and
Career Readiness Programs in High Schools – Pass
¨ Healthcare- California: Fee on Hospitals to Fund
Coverage of Uninsured Patients –Pass
- California: Drug Price Standards –Fail
- Colorado: Assisted Suicide– Pass- Colorado: Creation of Universal
Healthcare System through taxes –Fail
- Nevada: Sales Tax Exemption of some Medical Equipment – Pass
¨ Death Penalty- California: Repealing the Death
Penalty – Fail- Oklahoma: Establishing the Death
Penalty – Pass
PAGE 41
H O T I S S U ES F O R N E W C O N GR ESS: V I E WS O F G O V E RN MENT
Source:
2004 2008 2012 2016
Government should do more to solve problems 46% 51% 43% 45%
Government is doing too many things better left to
businesses and individuals49% 43% 51% 50%
PAGE 42
H O T I S S U ES F O R N E W C O N GR ESS: I M M I GRATI ON
Source:
Clinton TrumpOffered a chance to apply
for legal status (70%) 60% 34%
Deported to the country they came from (25%) 14% 84%
Illegal immigrants working in the United States should be:
Clinton TrumpSupport (41%) 10% 86%Oppose (54%) 76% 17%
View of U.S. wall along the entire Mexican border:
PAGE 43
H O T I S S U ES F O R N E W C O N GR ESS: H E A LTH C A R E
Source:
Clinton TrumpDid not go far enough (30%) 78% 18%
Was about right (18%) 82% 10%Went to far (47%) 13% 83%
View on Obamacare:
PAGE 44
H O T I S S U ES F O R N E W C O N GR ESS: I N T E RNATI ONAL T R A DE
Source:
Clinton TrumpCreates U.S. jobs (38%) 59% 35%
Takes away U.S. jobs (42%) 31% 65%Does not affect jobs (11%) 63% 30%
Effect of international trade:
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Our in-house research team is a data and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it.
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