Global Trends in Transport Fuels and the implications for Australian policyRussell CaplanChairman, Shell Companies in Australia
Bureau for Transport and Regional Economics ColloquiumCanberra, 15 June 2006
Global trends Continuing use of conventional fuels Cleaner transport fuels Fuel and engine efficiency Price pressures Refinery location & capacity Self-sufficiency vs economic growth
World energy demand 1971-2030IEA 2004 (reference case)billion tonnes oil equivalentother renewableshydronuclearbiomass & wastecoalgasoil
Demand for Oil to 2030From Akmal and Riwoe (2005), per AIP submission to the Inquiry into Future Oil Supply and Alternative Transport Fuels (2006)
Chart2
47.64.4273.1
50.54.933.93.1
55.16.250.93.3
OECD
Transition Economies
Developing Countries
International Bunkers
mbbl per day
Sheet1
World Primary Energy Demand in the IEA Reference Scenario (Mtoe)
200320102030Growth 2003-2030% of total% of total% of total
Coal2582286037241.4%24.1%23.1%22.9%
Oil3785443155461.4%35.3%35.8%34.1%
Gas2244266039422.1%20.9%21.5%24.2%
Nuclear6877797670.4%6.4%6.3%4.7%
Hydro2272783681.8%2.1%2.2%2.3%
Biomass & waste1143127316531.4%10.7%10.3%10.2%
Other renewables541072726.2%0.5%0.9%1.7%
Total1072212388162721.6%100.0%100.0%100.0%
World Oil Demand in IEA reference Scenario (mbbl per day)
2004201020302004-2030
OECD47.650.555.10.6%
Transition Economies4.44.96.21.3%
Developing Countries2733.950.92.5%
International Bunkers3.13.13.30.3%
Total82.192.4115.51.3%
Sheet1
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & waste
Other renewables
Mtoe
Sheet2
OECD
Transition Economies
Developing Countries
International Bunkers
mbbl per day
Sheet3
050100150200250300200020202040206020802100Heavy OilDiesel / GasolineElectricityGasHydrogenData sourceWEC; with modificationSynthetic fueland biofuelsLiquid FuelsGaseous FuelsEnergy Demand x1018 J Forecast global automotive fuel demand to 2100
Global trends Continuing use of conventional fuels Cleaner transport fuelsClean fuels - unleaded, lower sulphurSynthetic fuels GtL, CtLBiofuels Fuel and engine efficiency Price pressures Refinery location & capacity Self-sufficiency vs economic growth
Identical products from gas, coal and biomass Range of feedstock optionsSynthetic Fuels ContinuumNatural GasBiomassFischer-Tropsch processIdentical ProductsGTL SyngasBTLCTLCoalShell Gasification ProcessShell Coal Gasification ProcessGasifier
BiofuelsBio-Gasoline 4%Bio-Diesel 3%XTL Diesel 4%050010001500200025003000350040004500500020052010201520202025KBPDShell Global Road Transport Fuel Volume Base CaseDiesel 45%Gasoline 44%Conventional gasoline and diesel = 89%Bio-fuels: ~ 7 %CO2 reduction from bio-fuel: ~ 3 MT 2005~ 17 MT 2025Source: IEA, PX, DXF
Global trends Continuing use of conventional fuels Cleaner transport fuels Fuel and engine efficiencySmaller cars, hybridsMore dieselMore efficient engine technologyDriver education Price pressures Refinery location & capacity Self-sufficiency vs economic growth
Global trends Continuing use of conventional fuels Cleaner transport fuels Fuel and engine efficiency Price pressuresDemand side factorsSupply side factors Refinery location & capacity Self-sufficiency vs economic growth
Global trends Continuing use of conventional fuels Cleaner transport fuels Fuel and engine efficiency Price pressures Refinery location & capacity Construction of mega-refineriesLocated in Asia or Middle EastRising finished product imports into Australia Self-sufficiency vs economic growth
Asian Refining
Global trends Continuing use of conventional fuels Cleaner transport fuels Fuel and engine efficiency Price pressures Refinery location & capacity Self-sufficiency vs economic growth
Determining a vision for transport fuels in 2050 Should we have a long term transport energy vision? What fuels are present in the vision? Where do our fuels come from? What is the interplay between transport fuels and generation fuels? What environmental footprint will the fuels of the future have? What do we need to do today to set ourselves up to achieve the vision?
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