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Page 1: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

The 2012 Update of Our Future World

Global Megatrends

Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist

Stefan Hajkowicz

Page 2: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 2

“Imagination is

more important

than knowledge”

- Albert Einstein

Source: Wikimedia Commons

Page 3: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Different Types of Futures

Source: Voros (2003) adapted this diagram from Hancock and Bezold (1994) in the Healthcare Forum Journal

Now Probable

Plausible

Possible

The Future

Page 4: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

More Than Forecasting

Lynch, 2002. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance.

Actual oil price (other

lines show predictions)

Page 5: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Megatrends

Page 6: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

It suddenly struck me that that tiny pea, pretty and blue, was the Earth. I put

up my thumb and shut one eye, and my thumb blotted out the planet Earth.

I didn't feel like a giant. I felt very, very small.

- Neil Armstrong

1. More From Less

Page 7: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

More From Less World Population Growth

The world population is forecast to

grow from

7.2 billion persons today

to

8.1 billion in 2025

and

9.6 billion by 2050

Source: United Nations

Page 8: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

More From Less Food Price Movements

Source: World Bank

-

50

100

150

200

250

19

90

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91

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92

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93

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20

13

2007/08

Price Spike Between 75 - 130

million people

became

malnourished

(Headey, 2011).

Feb 2011

Highest

on record

From 2003 to 2007, the number

of undernourished people

increased from some 848 million

to 923 million, largely because of

the food-price crisis during this

period (FAO, 2008).

Page 9: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

More From Less

Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 9

More From Less Agricultural Land

Estimated that 12 million

hectares of productive

agricultural land, capable of

producing 20 million tonnes of

grain, lost each year to land

degradation (United Nations,

2011).

Image Source: NASA Terra Satellite

Page 10: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

More From Less The best remedy for high food prices might be high food prices?

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

0

50

100

150

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250

300

0

5

10

15

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25

30

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90

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00

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10

20

11

Glo

bal

Cer

eals

Pri

ce In

dex

Au

stra

lian

Wh

eat

Pro

du

ctio

n (

mill

ion

s o

f to

nn

es)

Australian Wheat Production (Millions of Tonnes)

Global Cereal Price Index

Wheat Production Trendline

Cereal Price Trendline

Page 11: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

250199

0

199

2

199

4

199

6

199

8

200

0

20

02

20

04

200

6

200

8

201

0

World C

rude O

il P

rice(U

SD

per

Barr

el,

Weig

hte

d b

y e

xport

volu

me)

FA

O F

ood P

rice Index

Food Price

Crude Oil Price

More From Less Oil Prices and Food Prices

Page 12: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

More From Less Oil Prices and Food Prices

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

US

Do

llars

Per

Bar

rel

Average Crude Oil Price(US$/bbl)

Page 13: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

More From Less Energy

Data source: International Energy Agency, 2011

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy Otherrenewables

Wo

rld

En

ergy

Use

age

(Mto

e)

2009

Current Policies 2035

Page 14: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

More From Less Water Scarcity

Page 15: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

More From Less Gold Ore Grade

Data Source: United Nations Environment Program 2011, Metal Recycling Report

2010 1990 1970 1950 1930 1910 1890 1870 1850 1835

50

40

30

20

10

Go

ld O

re G

rad

e (

g/t

Au

)

Page 16: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

More From Less Extent of Mineral Resources in Emerging Economies

Data Source: United States Geological Survey (2012)

Page 17: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

2. Going, Going … Gone?

Page 18: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

The fate of biological diversity for the next 10 million years will almost certainly be determined during the next 50–100 years by the activities of a single species.

Paul Ehrlich and Robert Pringle, PNAS 2008.

Going, Going… Gone?

Page 19: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Going, Going … Gone?

Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010

Page 20: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Going, Going … Gone? Red List

Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 20

Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010

Red List Extinction

Risk Index

1 = No concern

0 = Extinct

Page 21: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Going, Going ... Gone? Staying Put

Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010

Page 22: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

3. The Silk Highway

Page 23: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

The Silk Highway The Last 10 Years Have Been Good Down Under

Source: World Bank

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

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3

4

5

20

01

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02

20

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08

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09

20

10

20

11GD

P G

row

th R

ate

(%)

OECD members

Australia

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

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9

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01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

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20

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09

20

10

20

11

Un

emp

loym

ent

(%)

OECD members

Australia

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

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20

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20

09

20

10

20

11

Deb

t to

GD

P (

%) OECD members Australia

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

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20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

Exch

ange

Rat

e

Page 24: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

The Silk Highway A Shifting World Economy

Source: Quah, 2011; Global Policy

Page 25: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

The Silk Highway Making Cities in 20 Years What Took Europe 400 Years

Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 25 Image source: (c) The Chinese UPLA urban planning network, http://www.upla.cn

Statistic derived from analysis of the United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision Population Database

Page 26: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

The Silk Highway An Economy in Transition?

Source: The Reserve Bank of Australia

Page 27: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

More From Less From selling ingots to selling ideas

Source: Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society; Treado (2009)

0

2

4

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8

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20

Chicago Pittsburgh Detroit Cleveland

Shar

e o

f U

S To

tal i

n 2

00

3 (

per

cen

t)

Share of Steel Making Capacity

Share of Steel Technology Firms

Page 28: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

4. Forever Young

As you grow older, you will discover that you have two hands, one for helping yourself, the other for helping others.

- Audrey Hepburn

Page 29: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Forever Young The Ageing Population – Australia

Data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Today we’re some 14% over 65 yrs old

It will be 25% by 2050

Page 30: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Forever Young The Ageing Population in Japan

By 2050

Japan’s

population will

be 40% over

70 years old

Page 31: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Forever Young Retirement Savings Gap – Tapered Retirement

Source: Rice Warner

Page 32: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Forever Young The Rise of Chronic Illness

In 2002 59% of

deaths

worldwide were

from non-

communicable

illness.

It will be 69% in

2030.

Source: Mathers and Loncar, 2006.

Page 33: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

Forever Young Diabetes and Overweight Projections

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f to

tal p

op

ula

tio

n

ove

rwei

ght

USA England

Spain

Austria

France

Australia

Canada

Korea

Italy

Page 34: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Data Source: World Masters Association

Forever Young Wanting to Stay Active and Engaged

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013

Toronto, Canada

Aalborg, Aarhus &

Herning Denmark

Brisbane,

Australia

Portland,

Oregon,

USA

Melbourne,

Australia

Edmonton,

Canada

Sydney,

Australia

Num

ber

of C

om

petito

rs

Page 35: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

5. Virtually Here

Page 36: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

In 2009 United Airlines denied a damages claim made by a guitarist. He subsequently uploaded a song on youtube “United Breaks Guitars”. It was viewed over 12 million times. As it went viral the airline’s stock dropped 10% costing US$180 million. Data source: World Economic Forum, Global Risk Reports

Image source: Wikimedia

Virtually Here The New Public Relations Challenge

Page 37: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Virtually Here The Growth of Online Retail

Online as a Percentage

of Total Retail Sales

2012 2015

10 % 15%

National Australia Bank report a 29% increase in online retail sales in 2011.

Reta

il S

ale

s V

olu

me

Source: Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Australian Bureau of Statistics

Page 38: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Virtually Here Catch me if you can – New models of retail

Image Source: Flickr.com and The Age

Tescos Virtual Grocery Walls,

South Korea, 2011

Woolworths Virtual Grocery

Walls, Sydney, 2012

The Age

Page 39: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Virtually Here The Work (Live?) Anywhere City

In Queensland 58% of employees (1.1 million people) have a flexible work arrangement

of some type. This includes 13.3% (253,000 people) working from home.

Page 40: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Virtually Here The Offshoring Trend

Data Source: BCG, OECD, NASSCOM

Page 41: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Virtually Here The Offshoring Trend

In Australia they

cost $10,000 to

$20,000 per month

Page 42: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Virtually Here Automation Outside

the Factory

Image Source:

Wikipedia Commons

Page 43: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

6. Great

Expectations Now, I return to this young fellow.

And the communication I have got to

make is, that he has great

expectations.

- Charles Dickens

Page 44: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Great Expectations Maslow’s Hierarchy

Esteem – confidence, achievement, respect of others, respect by others

Love and belonging – Friendships, family, partnering

Safety – Shelter, personal security, productive employment, health, property

Physiological Needs – Eating, Sleeping, Breathing, Drinking

Self

Actualization -

Morality, creativity, spontaneity, problem

solving, lack of prejudice, acceptance of facts

Page 45: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Great Expectations Declining Material Consumption

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

16

17

18

19

20

21

1980 1990 2000 2008

Ave

rage

GD

P P

er C

apit

a fo

r G

8

Co

un

trie

s (e

xclu

din

g R

uss

ia)

in

20

00

USD

Mat

eria

l Co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

met

ric

ton

nes

per

cap

ita)

Domestic Material Consumption

Income (GDP Per Capita)

Data Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

Page 46: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Great Expectations Relative Decoupling

Data Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

Ratio of materials to GDP

Page 47: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Published studies showing materialism is detrimental to well being:

1985 - Journal of Consumer Research

1992 - Journal of Consumer Research

1993 - Journal of Consumer Satisfaction, Dissatisfaction, and Complaining Behavior

1993 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

2003 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

2007 - Family and Consumer Sciences Research Journal

2007 - Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology

2009 - The Journal of Positive Psychology

Published studies showing buying life-experiences improves well being

2010 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

2009 - The Journal of Positive Psychology

2009 - Journal of Research in Personality

2003 – Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

Great Expectations The Jury is out - Experiences make us happier

Page 48: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Great Expectations Utility - A non-linear relationship

Beers (schooners)

Happiness

(utility)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

K

Not likely

More likely

Page 49: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Experiencing the Experience Economy Joseph Pine and James Gilmore

Page 50: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Great Expectations Increasing Importance of the “Whole Package”

Source: Fair Trade Australia and New Zealand

Fair Trade Logo Sales Revenue – The Moral Dimension

Page 51: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Great Expectations Social Interaction

Page 52: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Basic Expectations

24% < US$1.25/day (47% in 1990)

33% of people in urban slums

15.5 percent of the world’s population (1 billion) hungry

United Nations, 2012

Page 53: Global Megatrends - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC€¦ · Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz . Presentation title | Presenter name | Page

Thank you Dr Stefan Hajkowicz

Principal Scientist

t +61 7 3833 5540 e [email protected] w www.csiro.au

CSIRO FUTURES