Global market review of automotive turbochargersand superchargers– forecasts to 2014
2008 edition
Page i
Global market review of automotive turbochargers and superchargers – forecasts to 2014 2008 edition
By William Kimberley
May 2008
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Page iv Contents
Contents
Single-user licence edition............................................................................................................. ii Copyright statement .................................................................................................................. ii Incredible ROI for your budget – single and multi-user licences............................................... ii just-auto.com membership........................................................................................................iii
Contents.......................................................................................................................................... iv
List of figures ................................................................................................................................. vi
List of tables .................................................................................................................................. vii
Chapter 1 Executive summary....................................................................................................... 1
Chapter 2 Technical review............................................................................................................ 4 What is the turbocharger?......................................................................................................... 5
The exhaust gas turbocharger.......................................................................................... 5 The mechanically-driven supercharger ............................................................................ 5 The pressure wave supercharger..................................................................................... 6
Turbocharger construction ........................................................................................................ 6 Heat issues ...............................................................................................................................7 Bearing and turbine design ....................................................................................................... 9
Bearing housing design .................................................................................................... 9 Turbine design.................................................................................................................. 9
Multistage supercharging........................................................................................................ 10 Dual-stage turbocharging ............................................................................................... 10
Dual-stage diesel turbocharging .............................................................................. 10 Dual-stage turbocharging and variable turbine geometry........................................ 11
Electronics and control devices .............................................................................................. 12 Micro turbos ............................................................................................................................ 13 Twinchargers........................................................................................................................... 13 Twin-scroll turbochargers........................................................................................................ 15 Turbo speed sensors .............................................................................................................. 15 VGT and VNT/VTG ................................................................................................................. 16 Summary................................................................................................................................. 19 Future developments .............................................................................................................. 19
Chapter 3 Geographical market analysis by region .................................................................. 21 North America ......................................................................................................................... 21 Europe..................................................................................................................................... 30 Japan ...................................................................................................................................... 33 China....................................................................................................................................... 35 India ........................................................................................................................................ 37 The rest of the world ............................................................................................................... 39 Summary................................................................................................................................. 40
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Page v Contents
Chapter 4 Principal suppliers ...................................................................................................... 44 BorgWarner Turbo & Emissions Systems............................................................................... 44 Cummins Turbo Technologies (formerly known as Holset) .................................................... 45 Eaton Corporation ................................................................................................................... 46 Honeywell Turbo Technologies............................................................................................... 47 IHI (Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries, Ltd) .................................................................... 48 Mitsubishi Heavy Industries .................................................................................................... 49
Chapter 5 Other suppliers ............................................................................................................ 50 Bosch Mahle Turbo Systems .................................................................................................. 50 Turbodyne Technologies ........................................................................................................ 50
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Page vi List of figures
List of figures
Figure 1: World oil consumption, 2001-2009 (mb/d) ......................................................................... 2
Figure 2: The BorgWarner R2S turbocharger ................................................................................. 11
Figure 3: The VW 1.4-litre TSI engine............................................................................................. 13
Figure 4: BorgWarner VTG turbocharger for passenger cars ......................................................... 16
Figure 5: BorgWarner VTG turbocharger for CVs........................................................................... 17
Figure 6: Toyota Prius hybrid powertrain ........................................................................................ 22
Figure 7: The Ecoboost................................................................................................................... 27
Figure 8: The Ecoboost 2................................................................................................................ 27
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Page vii List of tables
List of tables
Table 1: Comparison of VW Golf GT 2.0 FSI and 1.4 TSI .............................................................. 14
Table 2: North America demand for turbochargers, passenger vehicles (diesel and gasoline) and
commercial vehicles, 2008-2014 (m units) ............................................................... 29
Table 3: European installation rates for turbochargers in gasoline engines for passenger vehicles,
2008-2014................................................................................................................. 32
Table 4: European demand for turbochargers, passenger vehicles (diesel and gasoline) and
commercial vehicles, 2008-2014 (m units) ............................................................... 33
Table 5: Japanese demand for turbochargers, passenger vehicles (diesel and gasoline) and
commercial vehicles, 2008-2014 (m units) ............................................................... 35
Table 6: Chinese demand for turbochargers, passenger vehicles (diesel and gasoline) and
commercial vehicles, 2008-2014 (m units) ............................................................... 37
Table 7: Indian demand for turbochargers, passenger vehicles (diesel and gasoline) and
commercial vehicles, 2008-2014 (m units) ............................................................... 39
Table 8: Global demand for turbochargers, passenger vehicles (diesel and gasoline) and
commercial vehicles, 2008-2014 (m units) ............................................................... 43
© 2008 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
Page 1 Chapter 1 Executive summary
Chapter 1 Executive summary
Background to the global automotive market
Car manufacturers are under pressure as never before. On the one hand,
demand for the car has never been higher with new markets opening up in
China, South Asia, India, Latin America Russia and Eastern Europe offering
untold opportunities but on the other, they are having to address the near-
universal worries about climate change, emissions and the worldwide demand
for fuel. While there is some debate about just how much the internal
combustion engine contributes to polluting the environment compared to other
man-made sources, the fact is that they are seen by many governments and
legislative bodies around the world as one of the prime culprits.
These are the short- and medium-term issues that the vehicle manufacturers
are having to address, but there are also some very dark clouds looming on
the horizon that many of the vehiclemakers are acknowledging, even if they
are reluctant to talk about them publicly, and that is the threat of diminishing oil
supply.
OPEC (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) has forecast that
world energy demand will grow an average xxx% per annum between 2005
and 2030. It expects oil to remain the leading source of energy worldwide
during this 25-year period, with oil’s share of total world energy demand
declining slightly from a current xx% to xxxx%.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency has forecast that oil demand will
rise xxm barrels per day (mb/d) to xxxmb/d by 2030. The US government has
put that figure at xxxmb/d by that time.
Much of this demand is being driven by the increase in global vehicle
production. Over the next quarter-century, it has been estimated that the
emerging markets are going to drive up vehicle production far beyond anything
seen to date. By 2030, total annual global production has been forecast to be
around xxm units with China and India accounting for xxm units and xxm
units respectively. The projected xxxmb/d or xxxmb/d will simply not meet this
level of production. Some estimates have put this figure nearer to xxxmb/d as
the realistic alternative.
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Page 4 Chapter 2 Technical review
Chapter 2 Technical review
As described in the Bosch Automotive Handbook, the turbocharger is a
relatively easy and cheap way of optimising the fuel consumption of the
internal combustion engine. The principle behind it is relatively simple although
the technology has become far more sophisticated and complicated over the
years.
The principle behind the turbocharger is fairly straightforward. The exhaust
gas, which is considered lost or wasted energy, is captured and pushed or
‘blown’ back through the engine by the turbocharger. It therefore has to be
located somewhere close to the cylinder head which brings with it packaging
and heat problems. These disadvantages, together with the extra pipework
required, are generally outweighed by the benefits the device brings.
As a technology, it is not exactly new. A form of turbocharging – supercharging
(the principle of which is fresh air being blown under pressure into the cylinder
head) – has been seen on cars almost since the birth of the car. The most
well-known of them is perhaps the so-called Blower Bentley that raced at Le
Mans in the late 1920s. While not an official Bentley modification, the big,
green racing machine with straps on the bonnet and a large device sticking out
from underneath the radiator encapsulates for many the vintage Bentley.
In the 1980s, the turbocharger was very much in fashion as it was the era of
the turbocharged xxx-litre Formula 1 engines that were able to develop over
xxxxxbhp at their peak. For manufacturers like Renault and BMW which were
participating in Formula 1 at the time, it made marketing sense to have
turbocharged models in their range even if they were not out-and-out
competition cars.
Once the turbocharger was banned from Formula 1 in 1989, the technology fell
from favour, virtually disappearing from the passenger car for a number of
years, and only making a comeback on the direct-injection diesel engine.
However, there is a fast-growing trend which is seeing them installed on direct-
injection gasoline engines as they offer xxxxx% improvement in fuel
consumption figures and around xx% more torque.
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Page 21 Chapter 3 Geographical market analysis by region
Chapter 3 Geographical market analysis by region
North America
The North American market is quite unlike that of anywhere else in the world –
it is the only region where light trucks outsell passenger cars and the diesel-
powered passenger car market is still extremely small despite the combined
marketing might and prestige of the German car manufacturers that have been
pushing the technology.
It is also a region that is in some difficulty. The economic downturn, the credit
squeeze, the falling dollar and the high price of fuel by US consumers’
standards have all had a major impact on every market, including cars and
light trucks. The figure of xxxxxm light vehicles sold in 2007 was down xxx%
from the xxxxxm of a year earlier, and the prospects of it climbing back up look
remote in the near future.
As is the norm in the US, light trucks make up a healthy part of the total sales
mix, accounting for xx% in 2007. Where some other vehicles that comprise
this sector, namely sport utility vehicles (SUVs), had already experienced a
downturn, pick-up sales had remained strong but even they are now seeing a
slowdown.
Despite this downturn in light-truck sales, though, they are still expected to
account for xx% of the total market in 2008 and 2009. However, a slightly
smaller market share of a slightly smaller market could mean the loss of xm
sales over this two-year period.
The light-truck market, though, is quite a resilient one and any downturn is
never expected to last too long as these are working vehicles as much as
lifestyle ones and so need to be changed on a regular basis. High gasoline
prices, though, are causing a great deal of pain and as oil is priced in dollars,
and the dollar is falling against other currencies, the high price of a barrel of oil
is unlikely to go down in the region.
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Page 44 Chapter 4 Principal suppliers
Chapter 4 Principal suppliers
BorgWarner Turbo & Emissions Systems
Headquarters: xxxx Hamlin Road, Auburn Hills, MI 48326, US
Employees: xxxxxx worldwide as of 2007
Locations: xx facilities in xx countries as of 2007
Activities: Headquartered at Auburn Hills, Michigan, US, BorgWarner Inc is
one of the major manufacturers and suppliers of automotive components. The
company serves a majority of global original equipment manufacturers (OEMs)
including GM, Ford, Daimler AG, Chrysler, Volkswagen, Renault, BMW and
Fiat. The company operates through two reportable segments: Engine and
Drivetrain. The Engine segment manufactures a range of components
including turbochargers, thermal and emissions systems, chains and timing
systems. The Drivetrain segment manufactures transmission components and
torque management products.
2007 sales (BorgWarner): US$xxxxxbn combined worldwide
2007 net earnings (Borg Warner): US$xxxm
The worldwide market for turbochargers in 2007 was xxxxxxxxxx units of which
BorgWarner accounts for xxxxxxxxx or xx% market share. It also has a xx%
market share in the burgeoning gasoline turbocharger market.
BorgWarner Turbo Systems’ turbocharger business accounts for much of the
group’s growth over the past several years, particularly in the European
market. However, there are strong indications that the markets for both turbo-
diesel and turbocharged gasoline technology will grow in the rest of the world,
including the US, strongly contributing strongly to the group’s overall growth.
While its variable turbine geometry (VTG) is creating a great deal of interest
from its customers around the world, it is the Regulated 2-Stage (R2S)
turbocharger technology and gasoline turbochargers that are the most
important for the company.
BorgWarner Turbo & Emissions group also has a facility in Chennai to serve
the engineering, technology, and manufacturing needs of its Indian customers.
SeohanWarner Turbo Systems, a BorgWarner joint venture, has also opened
a production plant in Korea in 2008 which is scheduled to produce up to xm
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Page 50 Chapter 5 Other suppliers
Chapter 5 Other suppliers
Bosch Mahle Turbo Systems
In April 2008, Bosch and Mahle established Bosch Mahle Turbo Systems, a
50/50 joint venture headquartered in Stuttgart, Germany to manufacture and
market exhaust gas turbochargers. The joint venture partners plan to work
together to develop and manufacture turbochargers for gasoline and diesel
engines, and to market them worldwide. Series production is planned to start
in 2010.
The JV will allow Bosch to offer its advanced injection technologies and Mahle
its know-how on the development and manufacture of high temperature-
resistant turbocharger components. In addition, Mahle Powertrain specialises
in the development, design, and application of turbocharged engines. Both
partners in the new joint venture can therefore draw on extensive engine-
systems experience as well as competence in large-scale series production of
ultra-precision components in and around the engine.
“This joint venture will now allow us to offer our customers from a single source
a complete product portfolio for reducing fuel consumption and emissions,”
said Dr-Ing Bernd Bohr, chairman of the Bosch Automotive Group. Prof Dr
Heinz Junker, chairman of the Management Board and CEO of the Mahle
Group, added: “With their systems and components know-how, Mahle and
Bosch complement each other ideally as partners for the development of new
exhaust gas turbochargers. Moreover, the two companies are names to be
reckoned within the automotive powertrain field.”
Turbodyne Technologies
Turbodyne Technologies is a developer of patented electrically assisted air-
charging technology that enhances the performance of internal combustion
engines. Its product, the TurboPac, is commonly referred to as an electric
turbocharger or electric supercharger with applications for small-displacement
gasoline engines, mid-size gasoline powered vehicles (over xxx litres) and
large gasoline or diesel powered vehicles.
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