Global Economic Outlook Score Q4 2019Statista & Atheneum Expert Survey
Atheneum and Statista have partnered to create one of the world's largest economic sentiment indicators based on experts’ opinion. The study utilizes Atheneum’s global network of business professionals, who provide their expert view on the economy in their respective countries.
Every quarter, experts from 23 countries around the world report on their view of the current economic situation, as well as on their expectations for economic development in their respective countries over the next 6 months. Their evaluation considers the overall economic situation as well as seven specific areas.
By combining views on the current and future economy the Global Economic Outlook Scores provide a holistic picture of perceived economic change.
Introduction
The Global Economic Outlook Scores provide a holistic view on the next six months of development
Q4 2019
Method Online
Fieldwork 29.11.2019 – 31.12.2019
No. of responses 1,192
3
Across the globe experts remain satisfied and cautiously optimistic
Globally, experts are generally happy with their country's economic situation, resulting in a Global Satisfaction Score of +37%, predominantly driven by North America (+61%). Dropping from 49% in Q2, it remained stable in the second half of the year (Q3,: +35%). Most satisfied with their current situation are countries found in Western Europe. Swiss and Dutch experts report net Satisfaction Scores of +98% and +88% respectively with Germany at +70%. These remain comparable to previous quarters. The least satisfied countries can be found in Latin America, with a -43% net Satisfaction Score for this region. But this does not dampen the Global Outlook Score this quarter, as it is now at +4% compared to -3% in Q3. This change has been particularly driven by renewed and increased confidence in Australia, China, Germany, the UK and the U.S.
Strong election result sees stability brought back to the UK
After a period of Brexit uncertainty, the result of the UK election seems to have given business experts in the UK some clarity. The UK saw the biggest individual change in their Outlook Score. When asked if they expected the economy to improve or deteriorate over the next 6 months, for Q3 the UK had the lowest net outlook score (-56%). This has shifted to +5% in Q4. This rapid improvement has been mirrored throughout individual aspects of the economy. Especially political stability, which saw the most drastic swing. The score improved by 68 percentage points from negative 49% in Q3 to positive 19% in Q4. Also, for capital expenditure, which was -24% in Q3 and rose to +15% in Q4. Even though all other aspects of the economy that were measured, saw an improvement, they remained with negative Outlook Scores. There is still some work to be done to convince UK experts they are out of the woods, just yet.
Brazilian progress marches on
Although Brazilian experts remain dissatisfied with their current situation, it is improving, showing their positive outlook over the past quarters has been justified. Brazilian experts reported a Satisfaction Score of -51% in Q3 this has now increased to -26% in Q4. For their Outlook Score, experts continue to be optimistic, seeing their Outlook Score increase from +47% in Q3 to +53% in Q4, with only Indonesian experts more optimistic (+67%). With regards to individual aspects of the economy, Brazilian experts are the most positive in their outlook for consumer confidence (+71%), employment rate (+68%) and international trade (+53%).
Key findings (1/2)
Source: Global Economic Outlook Score Q4 2019 by Statista & Atheneum
Overall satisfaction remains consistent while global outlook improves, since the last quarter
4
Despite continued optimism, South Asian countries see their satisfaction drop
Despite experts from Indonesia and India being the most optimistic about their future over the last 3 quarters, their current Satisfaction Scores have dropped the furthest in Q4, compared to all other countries measured. India and Indonesia Satisfaction Scores have fallen by 24 and 22 percentage points, respectively. Indonesia has a Satisfaction Score of +31% this quarter, but India sees a negative Satisfaction Score for the first time in 2019 (-2%). However, their drop in satisfaction has not changed their positive outlook. Indonesia has increased their Outlook Score from +59% in Q3 to +67% in Q4. Although India has seen a drop in Outlook from Q3 (+48%), they remain amongst the top 3 optimistic countries for Q4, scoring +39%.
After initial optimism, there is huge concern over Italy’s political stability
In Q3 Italian experts saw the largest increase in their Outlook Score, coinciding with the formation of the new coalition government. However Italian experts’ Satisfaction Score with political stability this quarter is now -79% and the Outlook Score for political stability over the next 6 months has plummeted from +10% in Q3 to the lowest of any country measured, -53% in Q4. Italian expert’s overall satisfaction has also dropped from -51% in Q3 to -63% in Q4 and their Outlook Score has swung back to negative, going from +9% in Q3 to -2% in Q4
Spanish experts are the most pessimistic
Experts in Spain predict a gloomy six months. Spanish experts report an Outlook Score of -41% in this quarter, the worst of any country. This is 15 percentage points less than in Q3 (-27%). Their current satisfaction remains negative at -5%, dropping 4 percentage points from Q3 (-1%). Areas experts are especially worried about over the next 6 months are, economic stability and employment rate, both scoring -34%.
Key findings (2/2)
Source: Global Economic Outlook Score Q4 2019 by Statista & Atheneum
Satisfaction falls amongst the most optimistic countries
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
5
6
Satisfaction and Outlook Scores1 in %
Economic viewpoint Q4 2019
1: Net scores (positive evaluations minus negative evaluations) 2: Base below 25“How do you expect the overall economy in… to develop over the next 6 months?”; Single Pick; “How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the overall economic situation of …”; Single Pick; Base: n= 1,192 all respondentsSource: Global Economic Outlook Score Q4 2019 by Statista & Atheneum
Most countries are satisfied with their current economic situation for Q4
-100
-50
0
50
100
-100 -90 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Belgium
Canada
India
Satisfaction Score (Today)
Ou
tlo
ok
Sco
re (
Fu
ture
)
Brazil
United States
Mexico
France2
GermanySouth Korea
Italy
Netherlands
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
China
Indonesia
Japan2
Saudi Arabia2
RussiaAustraliaUnited Kingdom
Poland
Glo
ba
l Sa
tisf
act
ion
= 3
7%
Global Outlook = 4%
EuropeLATAM North America Asia, Middle East & Oceania
Dissatisfied, optimistic
Dissatisfied, pessimistic
Satisfied, optimistic
Satisfied, pessimistic
7
Global Satisfaction and Global Outlook Scores Q4 20191
Global Economic Outlook Scores (1/2)
Globally, experts are satisfied, but only cautiously optimistic when looking at the next 6 months
1: Weighted net scores by each countries GDP (see page 24 for method)“How do you expect the overall economy in… to develop over the next 6 months?”; Single Pick; “How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the overall economic situation of …”; Single Pick; Base: n= 1,192 all respondentsSource: Global Economic Outlook Score Q4 2019 by Statista & Atheneum
-100
-50
0
50
100
Global Satisfaction Score (Today)
+37%
Global Outlook Score (Future)
+4%
8
Global Satisfaction, alongside Global Outlook over the next 6 months1
Global Economic Outlook Scores (2/2)
1: Weighted net scores by each countries GDP (see page 24 for method)“How do you expect the overall economy in… to develop over the next 6 months?”; Single Pick; “How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the overall economic situation of …”; Single Pick; Base: Q4 = 1,192 Q3 = 1,725 Q2 = 1,725 all respondentsSource: Global Economic Outlook Score Q4 2019 by Statista & Atheneum
Global Outlook for 2020 shows a slight improvement on Q3, current Satisfaction remains similar
-3
-100
-50
0
50
100
Q2 2019
+37
Q4 2019Q3 2019
+35
+49
+4
+21
Outlook ScoreSatisfaction Score
-100 -50 0 50 100
Global BalancedSatisfaction
North America
Asia, Oceania & Middle East
Europe
LATAM
Satisfaction Score1 in %
Global Satisfaction is driven by North America
9
Summary
The Global Satisfaction Score this quarter is +37%. Nearly all regions also show a positive Satisfaction Score except LATAM at -43%. The Global Satisfaction Score is essentially driven by North American experts' opinion who score their current satisfaction at +61%.
1: Weighted net Satisfaction Scores (see page 24 for method)Source: Global Economic Outlook Score Q4 2019 by Statista & Atheneum
-43%
34%
37%
61%
25%
10
Q4 Satisfaction with current economic situation1
Satisfaction Score Q4 (1/2)
1: Net scores (positive evaluations minus negative evaluations) 2: Base below 25“How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the overall economic situation of …”; “How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the following areas in …?” Single Pick; Base: Q4= 1,192 all respondentsSource: Global Economic Outlook Score Q4 2019 by Statista & Atheneum
Swiss and Dutch experts have the highest Satisfaction Scores for Q4
Country Satisfaction
Switzerland +98%
Netherlands +88%
Japan2 +72%
Germany +70%
United States +62%
Sweden +58%
France2 +58%
Poland +58%
Canada +49%
China +38%
Australia +35%
Belgium +33%
Indonesia +31%
Saudi Arabia2 +22%
Russia 0%
India -2%
Spain -5%
UK -9%
Brazil -26%
South Korea -40%
Italy -63%
Mexico -70%
Turkey -73%
Dissatisfied Not includedSatisfied
11
Satisfaction with current economic situation1
Satisfaction Score Q4 (2/2)
Summary
India and Indonesia saw their Satisfaction Score fall the furthest between Q3 and Q4. With Indian experts score dropping from +22% to -2% and Indonesia seeing their score fall from + 53% to +31%.
On the other hand, Russian business experts no longer show a negative Satisfaction Score for the current economic situation. Moving from a Satisfaction Score of -39% to 0%. Brazil also showed a noticeable increase, slashing their negative rating from -53% to -26%.
1: Net scores (positive evaluations minus negative evaluations) 2: Base below 25“How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the overall economic situation of …”; “How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the following areas in …?” Single Pick; Base: Q3= 1,725 Q4= 1,192 all respondents * base below 25Source: Global Economic Outlook Score Q4 2019 by Statista & Atheneum
South Asian countries see Satisfaction Scores drop the furthest
5 change >= 10 percentage points
6 change <= 10 percentage points
Region Country Q3 Q4 Difference Change
North America Canada 56% 49%
United States 68% 62%
LATAM Mexico -59% -70% 6
Brazil -53% -26% 5
Europe Belgium 21% 33% 5
France2 30% 58% 5
Germany 72% 70%
Italy -51% -63% 6
Netherlands 92% 88%
Poland 65% 58%
Russia -39% 0% 5
Spain -1% -5%
Sweden 56% 58%
Switzerland 94% 98%
UK -33% -9% 5
Turkey -76% -73%
Asia, Middle Australia 26% 35%
East & Oceania China 45% 38%
India 22% -2% 6
Indonesia 53% 31% 6
Japan2 20% 72% 5
Saudi Arabia2 14% 22%
South Korea -33% -40%
3%
28%
-12%
-2%
3%
-8%
-4%
-6%
12%
-11%
27%
-4%
-7%
39%
4%
24%
-22%
-7%
-24%
52%
8%
-7%
8%
-100 -50 0 50 100
Europe
LATAM
North America
Globalsatisfaction
Asia, Middle East
& Oceania12%
4%
0%
28%
-7%
Overall, experts are positive but wary about the future
12
Summary
The global Outlook Score for this quarter is +4% indicating that business experts, in general, are slightly positive about the next 6 months. This is especially noticeable in LATAM, where experts report an Outlook Score of +28%. On the other hand, experts in Europe are wary about the future, reporting a negative Outlook Score of -7%.
1: Weighted net Outlook Scores (see page 24 for method)Source: Global Economic Outlook Score Q4 2019 by Statista & Atheneum
Outlook Score1
13
Outlook Score Q4 (1/2)
1: Net scores (positive evaluations minus negative evaluations) 2: Base below 25“How do you expect the overall economy in… to develop over the next 6 months?”; “How do you expect the following areas to develop in … over the next 6 months?”; Single Pick; Base: Q4= 1,192 all respondents * base below 25Source: Global Economic Outlook Score Q4 2019 by Statista & Atheneum
In general, European countries have a negative outlook for the next 6 months, Spain fear the worst
Country+ Outlook
Indonesia +67%
Brazil +53%
India +39%
Saudi Arabia2 +33%
China +23%
France2 +21%
Switzerland +7%
UK +5%
Australia 0%
Canada 0%
United States 0%
Italy -2%
Netherlands -3%
Russia -8%
Mexico -12%
Sweden -15%
Turkey -17%
South Korea -17%
Poland -19%
Belgium -20%
Germany -23%
Japan2 -39%
Spain -41%
Q4 outlook of economic situation over the next 6 months1
Deteriorate Not includedImprove
Outlook of economic situation over the next 6 months1
14
Outlook Score Q4 (2/2)
Summary
In general, expert’s outlook of the next 6 months, has improved since the previous quarter. Especially in the UK where they saw an upswing of over 60 percentage points in their Outlook Score. Having previously had the lowest Outlook Score in Q3 (-56%), UK experts have indicated a huge turnaround in expectation, with an Outlook Score of +5% in Q4
In contrast, experts in Poland show the largest decrease in expectations for the economy over the next six months. Moving from an Outlook Score of +8% to -19%.
1: Net scores (positive evaluations minus negative evaluations) 2: Base below 25“How do you expect the overall economy in… to develop over the next 6 months?”; “How do you expect the following areas to develop in … over the next 6 months?”; Single Pick; Base: Q3= 1,725 Q4= 1,192 all respondentsSource: Global Economic Outlook Score Q4 2019 by Statista & Atheneum
The UK shows the sharpest rise in Outlook Score
5 change >= 10 percentage points
6 change <= 10 percentage points
Region Country Q3 Q4 Difference Change
North America Canada -2% 0%
United States -11% 0% 5
LATAM Mexico -14% -12%
Brazil 47% 53%
Europe Belgium -23% -20%
France2 42% 21% 6
Germany -37% -23% 5
Italy 9% -2% 6
Netherlands 0% -3%
Poland 8% -19% 6
Russia -11% -8%
Spain -27% -41% 6
Sweden -10% -15%
Switzerland 4% 7%
UK -56% 5% 5
Turkey -26% -17%
Asia, Middle Australia -21% 0% 5
East & Oceania China 7% 23% 5
India 48% 39%
Indonesia 59% 67%
Japan2 -22% -39% 6
Saudi Arabia2 34% 33%
South Korea -8% -17%
14%
2%
-11%
11%
-21%
-5%
2%
6%
-9%
16%
3%
-3%
-27%
3%
-15%
-17%
3%
60%
9%
21%
8%
-1%
-9%
IN DEPTH
15
Employment rate
1: Net scores (positive evaluations minus negative evaluations) 2: Base below 25“How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the following areas …”; Single Pick; “How do you expect the following areas to develop... over the next 6 months?”; Single Pick; Base: Q3= 1,725 Q4= 1,192 all respondents Source: Global Economic Outlook Score Q4 2019 by Statista & Atheneum
In Q4, Brazilian experts have the most positive outlook for their country’s employment rate
Region Country Q3 Q4 Change Q3 Q4 Change
North America Canada 6 5
United States 5 6
LATAM Mexico 6 6
Brazil 5 5
Europe Belgium 5 5
France2 5 6
Germany 5
Italy 5 6
Netherlands 6 5
Poland 5 6
Russia 5 5
Spain 5 6
Sweden 6 5
Switzerland 6 6
UK 6 5
Turkey 6 5
Asia, Middle Australia 5 5
East & Oceania China 6 5
India 6 5
Indonesia 6 5
Japan2 6
Saudi Arabia2 6 5
South Korea 6 6
Satisfaction Scores1 in % Outlook Scores1 in %
4
-4
-20
68
-9
32
-19
-11
7
-5
-14
-34
-32
-9
-11
-37
-13
-7
17
54
6
-29
0
2
-2
-14
50
-11
53
-36
1
-1
1
-20
-23
-33
-7
-43
-38
-18
-16
15
45
-3
-16
0
65
81
-50
-80
16
-33
91
-55
90
61
-2
-64
52
94
60
-80
39
48
-28
39
68
-11
-31
53
82
-52
-65
33
-32
91
-53
80
75
29
-63
49
93
52
-88
57
39
-37
5
56
-22
-54
Region Country Q3 Q4 Change Q3 Q4 Change
North America Canada 5 6
United States 5 5
LATAM Mexico 6 5
Brazil 5 5
Europe Belgium 5 5
France2 5 6
Germany 6 5
Italy 5 5
Netherlands 6 5
Poland 5 6
Russia 5 5
Spain 5 6
Sweden 5 5
Switzerland 6 6
UK 5 5
Turkey 6 5
Asia, Middle Australia 6 5
East & Oceania China 6 5
India 5 6
Indonesia 6 5
Japan2 5 6
Saudi Arabia2 5 5
South Korea 6 6
17
Consumer confidence
1: Net scores (positive evaluations minus negative evaluations) 2: Base below 25“How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the following areas …”; Single Pick; “How do you expect the following areas to develop... over the next 6 months?”; Single Pick; Base: Q3= 1,725 Q4= 1,192 all respondents Source: Global Economic Outlook Score Q4 2019 by Statista & Atheneum
In general, country scores for consumer confidence have improved since the last quarter
Satisfaction Scores1 in % Outlook Scores1 in %
11
-8
71
-18
-5
-19
2
-7
-2
-8
-25
-19
-2
-5
-22
-15
4
17
59
-50
22
-3
02
-4
-14
53
-20
21
-28
1
-18
14
-26
-24
-23
-1
-46
-26
-30
2
42
56
-42
20
0
53
57
-13
-47
43
42
70
-27
83
57
-21
7
63
88
-29
-49
4
41
27
60
3
17
2
60
76
-26
-18
53
47
56
-16
81
63
11
64
86
-8
-53
30
12
43
28
22
-17
0
0
Region Country Q3 Q4 Change Q3 Q4 Change
North America Canada 6 6
United States 5 6
LATAM Mexico 5 5
Brazil 5 6
Europe Belgium 5 5
France2 5 5
Germany 5 6
Italy 6 6
Netherlands 5 6
Poland 5 5
Russia 5 5
Spain 6 5
Sweden 6 6
Switzerland 5 5
UK 5 6
Turkey 5 5
Asia, Middle Australia 5 5
East & Oceania China 6 6
India 5 5
Indonesia 5 5
Japan2 6 6
Saudi Arabia2 5 6
South Korea 6 6
Strength of local currency
1: Net scores (positive evaluations minus negative evaluations) 2: Base below 25“How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the following areas …”; Single Pick; “How do you expect the following areas to develop... over the next 6 months?”; Single Pick; Base: Q3= 1,725 Q4= 1,192 all respondents Source: Global Economic Outlook Score Q4 2019 by Statista & Atheneum
Despite, still scoring negatively, the UK see the largest improvement both in Satisfaction and Outlook
Satisfaction Scores1 in % Outlook Scores1 in %
-11
8
-22
29
-7
21
-4
5
7
-29
-8
5
8
10
-2
-41
-26
11
15
46
17
17
-6
-11
11
-23
24
8
-5
8
9
-20
-34
4
-10
24
-56
-37
-32
-7
24
35
9
29
-5
0
19
75
-19
-49
75
73
73
42
83
1
-38
64
-75
55
-79
-84
-25
31
-16
-13
68
83
-22
7
76
-10
-26
82
100
84
32
88
17
-8
55
-81
79
-31
-73
-7
14
5
-3
50
89
-31
Region Country Q3 Q4 Change Q3 Q4 Change
North America Canada 5 6
United States 5 5
LATAM Mexico 5 5
Brazil 5 5
Europe Belgium 5 5
France2 5 6
Germany 5 5
Italy 6 6
Netherlands 6 5
Poland 6 6
Russia 5 5
Spain 6 6
Sweden 6 5
Switzerland 5 5
UK 5 5
Turkey 5 6
Asia, Middle Australia 5 6
East & Oceania China 5 5
India 6 6
Indonesia 6 6
Japan2 5 6
Saudi Arabia2 6 6
South Korea 6 5
19
International trade
1: Net scores (positive evaluations minus negative evaluations) 2: Base below 25“How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the following areas …”; Single Pick; “How do you expect the following areas to develop... over the next 6 months?”; Single Pick; Base: Q3= 1,725 Q4= 1,192 all respondents Source: Global Economic Outlook Score Q4 2019 by Statista & Atheneum
Brazil has the most positive outlook over the next 6 months for international trade
Satisfaction Scores1 in % Outlook Scores1 in %
1
18
53
-13
-11
-32
5
2
-8
2
-7
4
-17
2
-11
13
32
41
-33
39
3
0
0
8
-25
-4
36
-34
14
-42
11
-21
-4
-10
-6
-4
-9
-46
9
-23
-14
57
44
-9
43
-13
11
-8
-10
-24
48
11
59
13
86
46
-28
35
73
80
-22
-28
30
19
32
6
38
51
-8
20
5
-9
51
47
68
-7
83
37
-8
34
70
86
-13
-10
37
23
15
-2
39
33
-17
0
Region Country Q3 Q4 Change Q3 Q4 Change
North America Canada 6 5
United States 6 6
LATAM Mexico 5 5
Brazil 5 5
Europe Belgium 6 6
France2 5 6
Germany 5 5
Italy 6 6
Netherlands 6 6
Poland 5 5
Russia 5 5
Spain 6 6
Sweden 5 6
Switzerland 6 6
UK 5 5
Turkey 5 5
Asia, Middle Australia 6 6
East & Oceania China 6 5
India 6 6
Indonesia 5
Japan2 6 6
Saudi Arabia2 5 6
South Korea 6 5
20
Political stability
1: Net scores (positive evaluations minus negative evaluations) 2: Base below 25“How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the following areas …”; Single Pick; “How do you expect the following areas to develop... over the next 6 months?”; Single Pick; Base: Q3= 1,725 Q4= 1,192 all respondents Source: Global Economic Outlook Score Q4 2019 by Statista & Atheneum
The UK see’s the largest positive change in outlook for political stability over the next 6 months
Satisfaction Scores1 in % Outlook Scores1 in %
-4
-37
-28
26
-47
-5
-21
-53
-24
-31
-8
-29
-25
-2
19
-27
-7
20
5
61
-22
22
-6
-8
-29
-30
8
-14
-2
-28
10
-1
-43
-13
-8
-8
-1
-49
-38
4
7
43
52
-1
20
-9
52
-12
-39
-39
-70
68
53
-76
74
-35
3
-66
21
98
-86
-57
51
69
89
33
67
49
-20
49
-23
-58
-15
-73
68
63
-79
59
-20
43
-79
32
95
-32
-51
37
68
56
33
39
72
-49
Region Country Q3 Q4 Change Q3 Q4 Change
North America Canada 5 6
United States 5 5
LATAM Mexico 6 5
Brazil 5 5
Europe Belgium 5 5
France2 5 6
Germany 6 6
Italy 6 6
Netherlands 6 5
Poland 6 6
Russia 5 5
Spain 6 6
Sweden 5 5
Switzerland 5 5
UK 5 5
Turkey 5 5
Asia, Middle Australia 5 5
East & Oceania China 5 5
India 6 6
Indonesia 6 5
Japan2 5 5
Saudi Arabia2 6 6
South Korea 5 6
21
Economic stability
1: Net scores (positive evaluations minus negative evaluations) 2: Base below 25“How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the following areas …”; Single Pick; “How do you expect the following areas to develop... over the next 6 months?”; Single Pick; Base: Q3= 1,725 Q4= 1,192 all respondents Source: Global Economic Outlook Score Q4 2019 by Statista & Atheneum
Current satisfaction and outlook for economic stability in the UK has improved substantially since Q3
Satisfaction Scores1 in % Outlook Scores1 in %
-2
-3
-16
47
-13
-11
-21
-25
-3
-29
-4
-34
-8
9
-9
-32
-9
16
29
61
-17
22
-20
2
-19
-16
45
-23
14
-39
7
-16
-18
-25
-31
-17
5
-61
-38
-35
-2
45
55
-20
23
-13
53
42
-41
-36
27
48
71
-57
92
34
-25
-16
62
96
-56
-80
33
50
43
51
42
40
-19
64
57
-54
3
51
63
63
-58
83
32
-2
-18
68
100
-19
-73
39
55
17
34
56
39
-17
Region Country Q3 Q4 Change Q3 Q4 Change
North America Canada 6 6
United States 6 5
LATAM Mexico 6 5
Brazil 5 5
Europe Belgium 6 6
France2 5 6
Germany 5 5
Italy 5 6
Netherlands 6 5
Poland 6 6
Russia 5 5
Spain 6 6
Sweden 6 5
Switzerland 5 5
UK 5 5
Turkey 5 5
Asia, Middle Australia 5 5
East & Oceania China 5 5
India 6 6
Indonesia 6 5
Japan2 5 6
Saudi Arabia2 5 5
South Korea 6 6
Capital expenditure / investments
1: Net scores (positive evaluations minus negative evaluations) 2: Base below 25“How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the following areas …”; Single Pick; “How do you expect the following areas to develop... over the next 6 months?”; Single Pick; Base: Q3= 1,725 Q4= 1,192 all respondents Source: Global Economic Outlook Score Q4 2019 by Statista & Atheneum
UK see’s the largest improvement in Outlook for capital expenditure / investments since Q3
Satisfaction Scores1 in %
31
38
-49
-56
14
18
18
-59
66
23
-39
-11
42
74
-34
-74
11
28
24
38
1
23
-16
18
37
-52
-21
11
63
35
-58
59
-2
-14
-18
34
88
-25
-63
22
41
-10
23
28
33
-23
-9
6
59
-33
-5
-19
-11
5
-27
-2
-20
-2
9
15
-25
20
16
41
62
-17
39
-9
0
-2
-13
-15
32
4
32
-21
-1
-4
-11
-5
-17
-15
5
-24
-33
-14
54
60
-9
34
-6
0
Outlook Scores1 in %
APPENDIX
23
Evaluation of current economic situation by
country
Weighted by each country’s GDP
Global Satisfaction Score
24
Condensing expert judgement from business professionals all over the world
Each quarter, business professionals are asked to report on their satisfaction with the current economic situation of their country and the overall economic outlook for the next 6 months. They are also asked for their current satisfaction and outlook for individual categories: employment rate, consumer demand and confidence, strength of the local currency, international trade, political stability, economic stability and capital expenditure and investments.
The experts who participate are generally businesspeople in leading positions at their companies and have at least ten years of experience. They are recruited through the Atheneum expert network.
Net scores capture a balanced view of the entire economy
The expert evaluations are converted into net scores by subtracting the share of negative evaluations from the share of positive evaluations. To create the overall Global Scores each countries scores are weighted by their GDP, the average of which provides the Global Satisfaction Score and the Global Outlook Score.
Methodology changed for this quarter. So direct comparison with data in other published reports will show slight differences.
Method
The GEO scores reflect changes in experts‘ evaluation of the world’s current and future economic situation
Expected development of economic situation by
country
Weighted by each country’s GDP
Global Outlook Score
Calculation model of the global scores
25
Sample (1/2)
1,192 experts took part in the last wave of the Global Economic Outlook Score survey
# Country Q3 Q4
1 Australia 57 46
2 Belgium 56 45
3 Brazil 88 34
4 Canada 62 45
5 China 58 56
6 France 66 19
7 Germany 111 57
8 India 92 41
9 Indonesia 85 61
10 Italy 98 57
11 Japan 69 18
12 Mexico 80 50
13 Netherlands 77 59
14 Poland 74 59
15 Russia 61 49
16 Saudi Arabia 35 18
# Country Q3 Q4
17 South Korea 64 35
18 Spain 83 56
19 Sweden 52 53
20 Switzerland 82 58
21 Turkey 76 59
22 UK 108 124
23 United States 91 93
Total 1,725 1,192
26
Sample (2/2)
Most participating experts work in a managing position
Position Q3 Q4
Board of directors 107 81
Managing director / CEO / partner 456 321
Area manager 252 182
Head of department 443 306
Team leader 194 149
Employee 103 80
Other 102 33
Freelancer 68 40
Experience Q3 Q4
10 years or less 224 122
11 to 20 years 593 388
21 to 30 years 589 415
31 to 40 years 250 207
41 to 50 years 63 56
Over 50 years 6 4
Method ▪ Online Survey▪ Duration approx. 5 minutes
Languages ▪ Survey offered in American English, French, German Spanish and Chinese (Traditional)
Source ▪ Statista and Atheneum
Region ▪ 23 countries
Number of respondents
▪ Q4: 1,192▪ Q3: 1,725
Sample ▪ Expert panel, provided by Atheneum
Survey period ▪ Fieldwork each quarter▪ Q4: 29.11 – 31.12.2019▪ Q3: 03.09 – 16.09.2019
Net scores ▪ Positive evaluations minus negative evaluations for either satisfaction or Outlook Scores
Methodology
27
The Global Economic Outlook Score is a worldwide online survey among business experts
28
Statista and Atheneum
About Statista About Atheneum
Founded in 2010 by Mathias Wengeler and Ammad Ahmad, Atheneum is a global platform for market research and knowledge sharing.
The company's mission is to accelerate customer decision-making by bringing customers together with the world's best professionals and industry leaders. These interactions provide helpful insights and creative ideas that ensure customers can drive their business forward efficiently.
The company is headquartered in Berlin, Germany. Other offices are located in Tokyo, London, New York, Santiago De Chile, Lahore, Shanghai, Seoul, Hong Kong and Munich.
Further information under:
www.atheneum.ai
Statista is one of the largest statistics portals in the world with over 1 million statistics on more than 80,000 topics from 22,500 sources.
More than 1,500,000 registered users use Statista regularly.
Statista currently employs more than 700 people in its offices in Hamburg, London, New York, Paris, Singapore and Tokyo.
https://www.statista.com
https://www.statista.com/page/geo_score
www.statista.com
Authors
Nicolas LooseDirector Market Research
Jack SpearmanResearch Manager
Nicolas Loose is in charge of the exclusive Statista surveys. He studiedCommunications and Strategic Planning at Berlin University of the Artsand Social Sciences at the Humboldt University of Berlin.
After his studies, he worked as a market researcher for customers in theFMCG and automotive industries and as Head of Market Research forAUTO BILD publishing group with Axel Springer publishing house.
Jack Spearman studied Sociology at Kingston University in London, UK.After graduating, he went on to work at TNS and Ipsos in various projectmanagement and market research roles, developing his skills for over 7years.
After moving to Hamburg in 2016, before joining Statista, he worked as aPatient Insight Manager for a patient recruitment company, where hehelped lead the expansion of the company’s online survey offer.
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