By Lorraine A. Manz

Wedidn’tknowitthen,butin2011NorthDakota’sgeothermal(groundsource)heatpump(GHP)industrywasridingthecrestofawavethatwasabouttobreak.Beginningin2012,thenumberofgeothermalenergyextractionpermitapplicationssubmittedtotheNDGSbegantodwindle.Bytheendoflastyearithadfallentojust38,an85%decreasefromthe2011recordhighof239andthelowestannualtotalsince2004.Thefiguresfor2017lookworseyet(fig.1).

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY UPDATE

Why the Numbers are Down

“We use a flame that burns at approximately 3,000°F to heat our homes when we only need 76-80°F. Why do we do that?” Dr. Xiaobing Liu, GHP technologies researcher, Oak Ridge National Laboratory

NorthDakotaisnottheonlystatewitnessingsuchadramaticdownturn.Others, including Iowa and Minnesota, have observed similar trendsoverthesamefourteen-yearperiod,althoughjudgingbythenumberofGHPshipmentsthrough2015thisdoesnotappeartobeanationwideproblem(Lapsaandothers,2017a).

ThedecisiontoinstallaGHPheatingandcoolingsystemisaffectedbyavarietyofdemographic,economic,andregulatoryconsiderationsbutmorethananythingelse;theoverridingconcerniscost. GHPsarethemostefficientandenvironmentallyfriendlyheatingandcoolingsystemsin theworld, capable of reducing energy consumptionby asmuch as65%comparedtoconventionalheating,ventilation,andairconditioning(HVAC)systems(Liuandothers,2015,2016).Yetinspiteofthisandtheirnumerousotherbenefits,(seebox)thehighup-frontcostofGHPsystemsisthemainreason(closelyfollowedbylackofconsumerawareness)whytheirshareoftheHVACmarketremainssosmall(≈1%)(Hughes,2008;EIA,2017a;Lapsaandothers,2017b).

Tohelpdefraythishighpricetagandencourageconsumer investmentin the technology,GHPsareeligible forawide rangeof federal, state,andutilitiesfinancialincentiveprograms.ThereareseveralavailableinNorthDakota(DSIRE,2017)butinrecentyears,twosignificanttaxcreditsexpiredandhavenotbeenextendedorsuperseded.Thefirsttogowas

Benefits of geothermal heat pumps

• GHPsusestoredsolarenergyfrombelowtheearth’ssurface,whichisubiquitousandrenewable

• Efficient – energy savings as much as 65% overconventionalHVACs

• ReduceCO2 emissions• Safe alternative to fossil fuels – no risk of fire,

explosion, or CO poisoning • Reliable(lowmaintenance,moreeventemperature

distributionthroughoutthebuilding)• Quietandunobtrusive–littletonovisualimpact• Create jobs – most components are made in the

USA,installationrequiresaskilled,locallaborforce• Help reduce peak power demand in summer and

winter• Lastalongtime(heatpump:25years,groundloop:

50+years)• Freehotwater• Lowenvironmentalimpact–donotobstructflyways

ordisrupthabitat• Work24/7andarenotweatherdependent

Sources:https://www.geoexchange.orghttps://energy.gov/energysaver/geothermal-heat-pumps

a renewable energy income tax credit, introduced under Section 57-38-01 of the North Dakota Century Code in2001,thatentitledcorporations(andindividualtaxpayersafterDecember31,2008)toa15%taxbreakonthecostof purchasing and installing a GHP system. The creditexpiredattheendof2014.

Figure 1.Greenandbluestackedcolumnsrepresentthenum-berofresidentialandcommercialgeothermalenergyextrac-tionpermits, respectively, issuedannuallyby theNDGSbe-tween2004and2017.Residentialsystemsinstalledpriortothe introductionof comprehensivepermitting inApril 2007arebasedoncompletionreportcounts.2017numbersasof10/31/17.

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In2008thefederalgovernment’sEnergyImprovementandExten-sionActexpandeda30%($2,000max.)residentialtaxcreditpre-viously reserved for solar systems and fuel cells to include small wind-energysystemsandGHPs,andextendedits2008expirationdatetoDecember31,2016.The$2,000capwasremovedayearlaterbyTheAmericanRecoveryandReinvestmentActof2009.Credits forsolarandwindenergytechnologiesweregrantedanadditional five-year extension with the signing of The Consoli-datedAppropriationsActinDecember2015.Allothers,includingGHPs, arehistory– adevastatingblow to the industry thathasbeenfeltacrossthecountry(Dougherty,2016,2017).

To North Dakota homeowners these two credits represented aminimumsavingof45%onthepurchaseandinstallationofageo-thermalsystemandintermsofinitialcostputGHPsonaparwithconventional,but lessenergy-efficientHVACsystems. However,thelossofthesecreditsisnottheonlyreasonwhyNorthDakota’sGHPmarketisintrouble.Inrecentyearsaclearrelationshiphasemerged between interest in GHP technology and the price ofnaturalgas(Tanguay,2017),especiallyinareaswherenaturalgasisreadilyavailableandcheap.

ThepriceofnaturalgasinNorthDakotaissignificantlybelowthenational average (EIA 2017b) and from 2010 onwards shows astrong correlationwithpermit activity (fig. 2). (Anyassociationpriortothisispartlyobscuredbyotherfactorssuchasthecom-mencementof various subsidyprograms,anda change in statepermitting requirements.) With natural gas prices projected toremainlowforthenextseveralyears(EIA,2017a)thefutureforGHPsinNorthDakotadoesnotlookgood.But...

Iamafirmbeliever inGHPtechnologyforall thereasonsgivenintheboxandbecausethesystemthatwasinstalledinmyownhomeseven-and-a-halfyearsago(Manz,2010)hasliveduptoex-pectations ineverywayexcept,perhaps,paybacktimewhich isgoingtobelongerthanweoriginallyanticipated(anotherconse-

quenceofthelowpriceofnaturalgas).Moreover,Iamconfidentthat,intheend,thebenefitsofGHPsaregoingtowinout–theyare too compelling to ignore as thedemand for clean, efficientenergycontinuestorise.Thefederalgovernmentrecognizesthisand, inspiteofaxingconsumersubsidies,continuesto invest inGHPtechnologiesthroughgrantsandprogramsliketheU.S.De-partment of Energy’sGeoVision Study (DOE, 2014). Under thedirectionoftheGeothermalTechnologiesOffice(GTO)GeoVisionisacomprehensiveassessmentofthegrowthpotentialofGHPsandallotherformsofgeothermalenergythrough2050.Theaimistodevelopstrategiesandtechnologiesthatwillbringdownthebarriersofcostandmarketskepticismthatcurrentlyhamper itsroleasamajorcontributortoreducingenergyconsumptionandgreenhousegasemissions.

Closertohome,theNorthDakotaDepartmentofCommerce,Of-fice of Renewable Energy& Energy Efficiency recently commis-sionedastudytoevaluatetheperformancecharacteristicsofex-istingGHPsystemsinNorthDakota(Yuandothers,2017).Resultsfromthetwenty-fourcasestudiesincludedintheinvestigationaremore-or-less consistentwith national trends (Hughes, 2008; Liuandothers,2015,2016)butthelocalemphasisisinvaluable.Thefinalreportisanimpartialsourceofreference,basedonmeaning-fuldata,thatwillassistNorthDakotaconsumersandpolicymakersinmakingwell-informeddecisionsaboutGHPdeployment.

BuildingsareAmerica’senergyguzzlersandthedemandisgrow-ing.IntheU.S.residentialandcommercialbuildings(offices,re-tail,schools,hospitals,etc.)areresponsibleforabout40%ofpri-maryenergyconsumptionandtotalCO2emissions(upwardsof2milliontonnesperyear),74%ofelectricityconsumption,and56%ofnaturalgasconsumption.Atleast50%oftheenergyconsumedbytheaveragesingle-familyhomeisforspaceheatingandcooling(DOE,2012). Oneofthemostcost-effectivewaystoreduceen-ergyconsumptionandCO2emissionsistotargetbuildings.GHPscandothat,anddoitwell.

ReferencesDatabase of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency

(DSIRE), 2017. http://www.dsireuse.org (retrieved 13October2017).

Dougherty,D.,2016,Losingenergytaxcredithurtscleanertech-nologies:RollCall.http://www.rollcall.com/news/opin-ion/losing-energy-tax-credit-hurts-cleaner-technolo-gies-climate-change-geothermal-heat-pumps(retrieved 5October2017).

Figure 2. GeothermalpermitsissuedbytheNDGS(seefigure1 for explanation) versus North Dakota residential (yellowcircles)andcommercial(orangecircles)annualaveragenaturalgaspricesindollarsper1,000cubicfeet(MCF).Source:U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration(2017b).

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Dougherty,D.,2017,AresolutionforCongress:TheGeothermalExchange Organization. https://www.geoexchange.org/a-resolution-for-congress/(retrieved5October2017).

Hughes, P. J., 2008,Geothermal (ground-source) heat pumps –market status, barriers to adoption, and actions to over-comebarriers:OakRidgeNationalLaboratoryReportORNL/TM-2008/232,46p.

Lapsa,M., Khowailed, G., Sikes, K., and Baxter, V., 2017a, HeatpumpsinNorthAmerica–2017regionalreport:12thInter-nationalEnergyAgencyHeatPumpConference,Rotterdam,2017.

Lapsa,M.,Khowailed,G.,Sikes,K.,andBaxter,V.,2017b,TheU.S.residentialheatpumpmarket,adecadeafter“TheCrisis”:12th InternationalEnergyAgencyHeatPumpConference,Rotterdam,2017.

Liu,X.,Hughes,P.,andAnderson,A.,2016,Anoverviewofgeo-thermalheatpumpapplicationsandapreliminaryassess-ment of its technical potential in theUnited States:Geo-thermalResourcesCouncilTransactions,v.40,p.707-716.http://cbey.yale.edu/sites/default/files/GRCVol40%20pages%20707-716%20Liu.pdf(retrieved13October2017).

Liu,X.,Malhotra,M.,Im,P.,andHabibzade,B.,2015,CasestudiesforGSHPdemonstrationprojects in theUS: InternationalEnergy Agency Heat Pump Center Newsletter, v. 33, no.3/2015, p. 29-33. http://heatpumpingtechnologies.org/publications/52752/(retrieved13October2017).

Manz,L.A.,2010,Retrofittingwithgeothermal,GeoNews,v.37,no.2,p.8-10.

Tanguay, D., 2017, Fundamental economic analysis of groundsourcesheatpumpmarkets inNorthAmerica:12th Inter-nationalEnergyAgencyHeatPumpConference,Rotterdam,2017.

U.S. Department of Energy, 2012, 2011 Buildings Energy DataBook. https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/buildings-energy-data-book-6d4d2(retrieved17October2017).

U.S. Department of Energy, 2014, Geothermal Vision Study.https://energy.gov/eere/geothermal/geothermal-vision-study(retrieved17October2017).

U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2017a, Annual energyoutlook2017:Washington,D.C.,U.S.DepartmentofEnergy.https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/databrowser/#/?id=30-AEO2017&region=0-0&cases=ref2017&start=2015&end=2050&f=A&linechart=ref2017-d120816a.12-30-AEO2017&ctype=linechart&sourcekey=0(retrieved17October2017).

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,2017b,NaturalGasPrices:Washington,D.C.,U.S.DepartmentofEnergy.https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_pri_sum_dcu_SND_a.htm(retrieved2 October2017).

Yu,Y.,Miao,R.,andMiller,L.,2017,Studyandevaluationofop-erating experiences with existing geothermal heat pumpsystemsinNorthDakota–finalreport:PreparedbyNorthDakotaStateUniversity,DepartmentofConstructionMan-agementandEngineeringfortheStateEnergyProgramofNorthDakotaDepartmentofCommerce,158p.

GeoNews Short Note:

Central & Eastern U.S. Seismic Network (CEUSN) – Accessibility of Seismic

Monitoring Data

In the January2017 issueofGeoNews,geologistFredAnderson reportedonNorthDakota’scurrentseismicmonitoringcapabilities.Inthisarticle,readerswhowereinterestedinviewingnear real-time seismic data from seismometers inNorthDakota and around theworldwerereferredtotheRapidEarthquakeViewerwebsitethatwasbeingmaintainedbytheUniversityofSouthCarolina.ShortlyafterpublicationoftheJanuaryissueofGeoNewsthesemonitoringcapabilitieswerediscontinued.

ReadersarenowreferredtotheUniversityofCaliforniaSanDiego(UCSD)inLaJolla,Californiawherecompleteandconvenientaccessviathewebtothelatest24-hoursofseismicmonitoringstationdataforstationsinNorthDakota,aswellastheentireCEUSN,iscurrentlybeingprovidedandcanbereadilyaccessedbyvisitingtheCEUSNwebsiteat:http://ceusn.ucsd.edu/

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