Amy Ericson
Vice President, Product Platform Management
Alstom Power’s Global Gas Business
2012 Summer Seminar
August 5-7, 2012
Generation Technology Innovations
2 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Natural Gas Market Themes “Shale gas revolution, global price disconnect”
Higher by 26% from new shale gas and LNG based reserves
Capacity to deliver gas globally to increase by 50%
To increase 20% to 3,794 bcm by 2020; power sector main driver
Still volatile, but with huge gap between NAM and Europe/Asia
Reserves
Price Supply
Demand
Power use to rise 52%
4 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Agenda
What if…
… an unconventional gas boom greatly increases the
use of gas power generation worldwide?
– What’s the journey and where does it take us?
– What must gas power generation technology become?
– What must renewable power generation technology
become?
– Where’s the intersection?
5 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
2012 2035
Some Consequences from a Surge
in Gas Supply
Renewables markets gather
speed, hybrid solutions boom
Gas infrastructure used as
storage, little need for
Grid updates
Rising prices and
loss of
competitiveness of
Gas vs. Renewables
Unconventional Gas
Boom in the U.S., later
also in Europe and China
Moderate Climate
Mitigation Agreement
Gas Plants Replace Coal in
Investment Pipeline
Gas prices
converging
globally
6 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Global Installed Capacity 2035:
9600 GW
n coal n gas, oil n gas ccs n nuclear n hydro n wind n solar pv n solar csp n biomass n other
Global Installed Capacity 2010:
5200 MW
others: 100
POWER GENERATION in 2035: Intermittent Sources
Gain Ground; Gas becomes the go-to resource
Global E-Generation:
37200 TWh +70% to 2010
Gas and Renewables to 80% of Capacity
7 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Market Drivers Consequent Trends: Gas Fired Power Generation
Market Drivers:
Economics
Environment
Technology Mix
Technology
Requirements:
Increased Efficiency
Economies of Scale
Water Usage
Gas with CCS?
Flexibility
Storage?
Hybrid?
8 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Efficiency of Gas Power Plants
Base: Fuel price 4.5 $/mmBtu
- 7.7%
CC
PP
Eff
icie
ncy
Efficiency [%]
year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
CCPP
Korneuburg (A)
KA11N/KA13E
KA24/ KA26
GT Neuchâtel (CH)
GT24/GT26
GT11N/GT13E
GT12
2020
Efficiency [%]
year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
CCPP
Korneuburg (A)
KA11N/KA13E
KA24/ KA26
GT Neuchâtel (CH)
GT24/GT26
GT11N/GT13E
GT12
2020
CCPP Efficiency
development over time CCPP Efficiency vs. CoE
Continuous Efficiency Improvements
9 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
Gro
ss
CC
PP
Eff
icie
nc
y C
CP
P E
ffic
ien
cy
Future CCPP Efficiency towards the 65% and above technology cycle
10 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
All modes of operation, the majority NOT baseload
Operating Regime – U.S. 2011 Combined
Cycle Plants
11 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Increased complexity of
components
Allo
ys a
nd e
xotic
mate
rials
NOx and CO emissions
Reliability
Impact
on com
ponent
lifetim
e
Flexibility
Impact o
n s
tart-u
p
relia
bility
Cos
t
Em
issions
Efficiency
• High base-load efficiency
(62%-65%?)
• High efficiency across the load
range
• Low first (CAPEX) costs and
low operational (OPEX) costs
• Maintaining current or
lowering emission levels
Future CCPP Efficiency towards the 65% and above technology cycle
12 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Future Technology Mix
…What Can Happen with a Lot of Wind Power!
• 12 GW wind
power loss
within 18 hours
• Loss of about
50% of
installed
wind capacity
Germany’s installed wind power accounts for 25 GW of 120 GW
totally installed capacity (2009)
Grid stability will require reserve capacity in NAM
Our answer: >450 MW in 10 minutes
13 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Gas Flexibility Fast Start, Turndown and
Performance Across the Load Range
• High turndown capability
• Support renewables and provide
spinning reserve
• Emission compliant at low loads
• Critical to integrate GT, HRSG, ST
and BOP for flexibility
• Operate over wide operating regime
(base-load to daily start–stop)
• Fast start/ramping, high cycling with
minimized lifetime impact
14 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
2012 2035
Some Consequences from a Surge in
Gas Supply
Renewables markets gather
speed, hybrid solutions boom
Gas infrastructure used as
storage, little need for
Grid updates
Rising prices and
loss of
competitiveness of
Gas vs. Renewables
Unconventional Gas
Boom in the US, later
also in Europe and China
Moderate Climate
Mitigation Agreement
Gas Plants Replace Coal
in Investment Pipeline
Gas prices
converging
globally
15 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
3 MW turbine 5 turbines => 13.5 MW
Yield = 50 GWh/year
+ 25%
YIELD
1.5-2 MW turbine
6 turbines => 11 MW Yield = 40 GWh/year
Yield @ 7.5 m/s average wind speed
Few wind turbines and higher yield
Scale-up = Land, CAPEX, and
OPEX Optimization
16 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Alstom US Power Industry Seminar – Newport, RI – Sep 9 - 11,
2011 - P 16
17 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Case Study MISO – Wind Curtailments
total 2010: 4% (824 GWh)
total 2009: 1% (292 GWh)
other TSO alike
Source: Power 2020 – Storage
Stream – Dec. 2011
We need storage to make the most of investments
18 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Continuum of Flexible Generation
and Storage
Future market trends:
• Fossil based Power generation with key drivers towards higher CoE
– More flexible operation with decreased operating hours and variable loads
– Marginal cost (Fuel) increased by CO2 price when no CCS is applied
• Need/opportunity to integrate variability of RES and to ensure back up capacity
19 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Conventional
(Li-ion, Ni-Cd, Pb)
Static liquid or solid
electrodes/anode
materials
70 - 90%
Li-ion: 95%
CAES
Super Capacitors
Flow
Cell/Advanced
(VRB, ZnBr, NaS)
Transportation
UPS
Power quality
Load leveling
Energy Storage
Technology
Operating
principle
System
output
Cycle
efficiency
Applications
Flywheels
Two electrolytes are
separately stored 60 - 80% min - hours /
seconds
Load leveling
Renewables storage
Massive rotating cylinder
stores/delivers energy via
motor/generator mounted
on stator
95% Voltage/Frequency
stabilization
Power quality
Transportation
Off-peak electricity used
to compress air
65-75% Commodity Storage
Peak shaving
Renewables storage
High surface area elec-
trode materials used to
enhance capacitors to
higher power/energy
95% Power quality
Po
ten
tial
Batt
eri
es
Kin
eti
c
Ele
ctr
ical
sec - min /
seconds
hours /
minutes
milliseconds /
milliseconds
100 kW –
10 MW
100 kW –
10 MW
5 kW –
3 MW
10 MW –
200 MW
< 1 MW
min - hours /
seconds
Pump Storage
Off-peak electricity used
to pump water to storage
lake
100 MW –
2000 MW
days /
minutes 75 - 80%
Commodity Storage
Peak shaving
Renewables storage
Bulk Hydrogen
(concept)
Ch
em
ical
Hydrolysis with surplus
electricity to obtain H2
Bulk storage H2,
H2 direct use + turbining
500 MW -
1000 MW 35 - 40% Mobility, Chemistry,
Electrification with
turbine-generator
days-months/
minutes
Backup time /
Reaction time
Energy
density
Li-ion: 290
Ni-Cd: 150
kWh/m3
VRB: 6
NaS: 42
kWh/m3
2 kWh/m3
6 kWh/m3
5 kWh/m3
6 kWh/m3
2700 kWh/m3
Electrical Energy Storage
Technology Types and Potential
20 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Hybrids…
Transition to Quickly Gain Scale
• Solutions for CCPP and ST plants
• Increase of renewable energy,
decrease of CO2 emissions and fuel saving
• Generation of “dispatchable” electricity
without need for storage
• Reduced CAPEX for same output
– Leverage existing power block and
grid access by maximising utilisation
• Synergetic benefits for new plants
– Higher efficiency, increased operational
flexibility (ISCC), maximum staff utilisation
20
ISCC – Integrated Solar Combined Cycle
Solar: 50 - 100 MW / up to 40% renewable share
An economic solution for Cleaner Fossil Power
21 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Environment – Legislation?
CO2 Emissions over time
Gas Wave 2035
+ 9%
Pressure on CO2 emissions from all fossil fuels likely to continue
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