Freshwater Futures
Community Group
Combined Kaituna/ Maketū and
Pongakawa/Waitahanui - Workshop 7
Welcome
Tiaki pumautia te wai e hoki mai ai ngā rawa ki a tātau katoa
Treat the water wisely and it will return to us
Housekeeping
• Fire protocol
• Toilets
• Meals
• Recording and sharing notes
• Make yourself at home
Agenda
lunch
am tea
Welcome
National and regional update
Mitigation bundles and baseline
profit
Introduction to environmental flow
setting in rivers
Next steps
Outcomes sought today
Feedback on make up of mitigation bundles:
• Are they about right?
• Have we missed anything significant?
Feedback on baseline profit estimates
• Are they about right?
Improve understanding about scope of work and
upcoming discussions
Purpose of this group
To help Council implement the National Policy
Statement for Freshwater Management:
• confirm values, express preferred objectives
• provide feedback on limits for freshwater quality and
quantity within this Water Management Area
• provide input to solutions for managing activities to
meet those limits
• advise Council in their decision-making for Plan
Change 12
Calendar to completion
7
Workshop 5: Aug 17
• Toward Objectives
• Use Values
Workshop 6: September 17
• Development Scenarios
• Use Values (con't)
• Management Options & Assessment Criteria
Workshop 7: April 18
• Mitigation Bundles
Workshop 8: May/June 18
• Mitigation Costs
• Draft Objectives
• Modelling Results - baseline and development
• Flow setting results
Workshop 9: Aug/Sep 18
• Modelling Results - mitigation
• Limits
• Solutions building and assessments
National and
regional updates
National Update
• More NPSFM changes indicated
• Minister Parker:
• National options to halt declining water quality
now – land use intensification regulations?
• Allocation options for nitrogen and
phosphorous
• Swimmable rivers and lakes
Regional Update
• Te Maru O Kaituna - river document
• RPS Change 3: Rangitāiki River
• Plan Change 9: Water Quantity
• Draft regional targets for swimmable
rivers and lakes (primary contact)
Draft regional targets – part of the bigger
picture
National targets – 80% of specified rivers
and lakes swimmable by 2030 and 90% by
2040
2017 swimming categories
Water quality for
swimming map
Draft BOP targets are
95.7% of specified rivers and 85% percent
of specified lakes swimmable by 2030.
• our region’s contribution to the national targets
• reported on MfE’s website on 31 March
• already better than the national targets –
allows us to continue with work underway and
planned based on MfE’s high level modelling
of work already underway
• regional targets need to be finalised by 31 Dec
Project update
Process
In-rivervalues
Preferred state
Use Values
Water quality and
quantity demand
Draft Objectives
Limits and management
options
Draft plan change
Attributes and bands
Flows and levels
Scenario modelling
and assessment
Water quality modelling
Sediment
Phosphorous
E.coli
Nitrogen
CURRENT
PRACTICE
Management or
mitigation practices
‘GOOD
MANAGEMENT
PRACTICE’
ADDITIONAL
MITIGATIONS
Land (and water) use
REFERENCE STATE
CURRENT
FUTURE
Modelling results pending May/June
Water quality, flow and
resource use estimates
Mitigation bundles &
baseline profit
CURRENT
PRACTICE
Management or
mitigation practices
‘GOOD
MANAGEMENT
PRACTICE’
ADDITIONAL
MITIGATIONS
Land (and water) use
REFERENCE STATE
CURRENT
FUTURE
Scenarios: exploring alternative futures
Water quality, flow and
resource use estimates
So we’ve already done…
Brainstormed
mitigation practices
(Workshop 5)
Attempted to group into
Good Management practice
& additional mitigation, and
establish current level of
implementation (Workshop
6 and online survey)
We asked PerrinAg & Landcare Research to
• Advise on mitigation bundles based on
cost and effectiveness, building on earlier
work
• Estimate the cost of implementing these
mitigation bundles and their effectiveness
Linking up the catchment model
and economic analysisEstimation of
mitigation costs
Mitigation bundle cost
estimates (expressed
as profit/ha for
different land uses)
Mitigation Water quality outcome Cost
Current --
M1 $
M2 $$
M3 $$$
We are still in an exploratory stage,
not coming up with options yet
0.
Current
practice
Mitigation
M1 M2 M3
B. Current land &
water use
B0
(status quo)B1 B2 B3
De
ve
lop
me
nt
C. Future land &
water useC0 C1 C2 C3
D. Future land &
water useD0 D1 D2 D3
Exploratory
stage
? ?
? ?
Solution-building stage:• Revisit desired water quality objectives, bearing in
mind freshwater values, methods and their costs
• Revisit methods to achieve desired water quality
objectives
• Drill into a narrower range of scenarios in more detail
Basis for mitigation bundles
Effectiveness (reduction in contaminant
loss)
Nil Low Med High
Co
st
(% r
ed
ucti
on
in
pro
fit)
High M3
Med M2
LowM1
Nil
Based on previous studies and literature
Practices with prohibitive cost and nil or highly
uncertain effectiveness not included
Initial assessment
Mitigation bundles
M0: existing mitigation practice
M1: low barrier to adoption, low cost (<10% of profit), at
least low effectiveness in reducing contaminant
loss
M2: moderate barrier to adoption, medium cost
(between 10% and 25% of profit), at least medium
effectiveness in reducing contaminant loss
M3: high adoption barrier, high cost (>25% profit) but
high effectiveness in reducing contaminant loss
M4: total land use change
Activity- Mitigation Bundles
and costings1. Please sit in the sector that you’re most
involved with
2. We will work through all five sectors in turn
starting with dairy pastoral
3. Discuss the Mitigation bundles M1, M2 and
M3 for dairy pastoral only in sector groups
4. Note down groups’ comments for later
feedback
Activity- Discussion
questions
1. Are the mitigations in the right
bundles? Why/ Why not?
2. Are there any sector appropriate
mitigations missing that should be
added?
3. Are any of the listed mitigations
out of the question?
Activity: Feedback
Share back your groups’ top three
changes and why.
Baseline financial modelling
LUNCH
Activity: Water Quantity
1. Each take a dipper of water
from the vase.
2. When everyone has taken their
water what happens to the
stream?
Activity: Water Quantity
3. What should we do if there is not
enough water for all users?
4. Can we think together and come
up with better options for our
community?
Activity: Water Quantity
5. What are the consequences of
your options?
Think about : Environment, Culture,
Economy, and Recreation
Introduction to
environmental
flow setting
What we’ll cover
1. River flow patterns and why we need to
manage minimum flow and allocation
2. How we will work towards setting
minimum flows and allocation limits
3. Introduction to EFSAP modelling as a
tool that will help us
4. Some terms and concepts
Q5
Flow duration curve• Shows us how much of the time a river has less than a particular flow
• In the example below, the river is below 2m3s-1 about 10% of the time and
below 10m3s-1 about 80% of the time
What might
different
minimum
flows and
allocation
limits mean
for ….
In river values?Ecology, mahinga kai, fishing etc
Water users?Water available for use, reliability
How will we figure this out?
EFSAP
More detailed studies
Engagement
Set minimum flows and limits
Methods to achieve
What is EFSAP?
Environmental
Flow
Strategic
Allocation
Platform
Estimates how:
• Instream physical
habitat for selected
species changes with
different water quantity
limits.
• Reliability of supply
changes with different
water quantity limits.
Indicator species
Rangitāiki WMA Longfin Eels,
Koaro, Rainbow
trout
Weighted Usable Area
Example output% Reliability at minimum flow – how often will water
takes be restricted if minimum flow is x?
Example output
% Habitat change for
different species at a
particular minimum flow
Scenario Example
What minimum flow and allocation limits would
achieve:
≤15% median loss of habitat
≥95% reliability at minimum flow and
Reliability
Allocation
(%MALF)
Minimum Flow (% MALF)
10
70
10 70
Habitat protection
10
70
10 70
Allocation
(%MALF)
Minimum Flow (% MALF)
Combined Objectives
10
70
10 70
Allocation
(%MALF)
Minimum Flow (% MALF)
How well do you now feel
you understand …1. River flow patterns and why we need to
manage minimum flow and allocation
2. How we will work towards setting minimum
flows and allocation limits
3. What EFSAP modelling is and how it will help
us
4. Terms and concepts
• minimum flow, allocation limit, reliability, flow
duration curve, habitat protection level
Feedback…
any key changes
What’s next?
Where we’ve been today
lunch
am tea
Welcome
National and regional update
Mitigation bundles and baseline
profit
Introduction to environmental flow
setting in rivers
Next steps
Any:
• general comments
• questions
Summary
Key areas of agreement
Notable points of disagreement
Actions
Any burning questions still
unanswered?
Next steps
Workshop 8: May/June 18
– Mitigation Costs
– Draft Objectives
– Modelling Results - baseline and
development
– Flow setting results
• In closing…
• Any feedback to us on this session?
• Next session May/June
• Talk to others ……
• The key highlight/achievements from this
session
• Ask - what would they have added to the
session?
Thanks once again
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