No. 310February 2013
Forecasts for the UK economy:
a comparison of independent forecasts
compiled by the Macroeconomic Prospects Teamhm-treasury.gov.uk/forecasts
Official versions of this document are printed on 100% recycled paper. When you have finished with it please recycle it again.
If using an electronic version of the document, please consider the environment and only print the pages which you need and recycle them when you have finished.
© Crown copyright 2013
You may re-use this information (not including logos) free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government Licence. To view this licence, visit http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/ or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or e-mail: [email protected].
Any queries regarding this publication should be sent to us at: [email protected].
ISBN 978-1-909096-77-6 PU797
CONTENTSMedium-term forecasts, February 2013
Page
Summary Page: Short-term forecasts 3
Table 1 - 2012: Growth in GDP and its components (% change) 4
Table 2 - 2012: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change) 5
Table 3 - 2012: Growth in other selected variables (% change) 6
Table 4 - 2013: Growth in GDP and its components (% change) 7
Table 5 - 2013: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change) 8
Table 6 - 2013: Growth in other selected variables (% change) 9
Table 7 - 2014: Growth in GDP and its components (% change) 10
Table 8 - 2014: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change) 11
Table 9 - 2014: Growth in other selected variables (% change) 12
Average of independent forecasts for 2012; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation and claimant unemployment 13
Average of independent forecasts for 2012; Current account and PSNB (2011-12) 14
Average of independent forecasts for 2013; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation and claimant unemployment 15
Average of independent forecasts for 2013; Current account and PSNB (2012-13) 16
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2012; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in the last 3 months 17
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2012; Claimant unemployment, current account and PSNB (2012-13) made in last 3 months 18
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2013; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in the last 3 months 19
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2013; Claimant unemployment, current account and PSNB (2013-14) made in last 3 months 20
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2014; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in the last 3 months 21
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2014; Claimant unemployment, current account and PSNB (2014-15) made in last 3 months 22
Summary Page: Medium-term Forecasts 23
Table M1: Medium-term forecasts for GDP and the GDP deflator
Table M2: Medium-term forecasts for domestic demand and net trade contribution
Table M3: Medium-term forecasts for CPI and RPI inflation
Table M4: Medium-term forecasts for the sterling index and official Bank rate
Table M5: Medium-term forecasts for claimant unemployment
Table M6: Medium-term forecasts for house price inflation
Table M7: Medium-term forecasts for the current account
Table M8: Medium-term forecasts for PSNB
Table M9: Medium-term forecasts for the output gap 28
Average of medium-term forecasts for GDP growth, CPI inflation and claimant unemployment 29
Average of medium-term forecasts for the current account and PSNB 30
Annex 1: Forecasting institutions referred to in charts and tables 31
Annex 2: Data definitions 32
Annex 3: Notation used in tables 33
Annex 4: Organisation contact details 34
Users should note that the Treasury crest (which incorporates the Royal Coat of Arms) may not be used or reproduced for any purpose
without specific permission. Permission to use or reproduce the Treasury crest should be sought from HM Treasury.
Forecasts for the UK economy is compiled and coordinated by Ian Hughes. Please direct enquiries on the content of this issue to Ian Hughes
(020 7270 5404, [email protected]).
The next edition will be published on 20th March 2013. It will also be available on the Treasury’s website:
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/forecasts.
PU797 ISBN 978-1-909096-77-6
24
25
26
27
Please note that Forecasts for the UK economy is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves and does not in
any way provide new information on the Treasury’s own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to review. No significance should be
attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of material published in
this comparison.
The averages and ranges in this document may be reproduced free of charge in any format or medium providing that it is reproduced accurately and not used in
a misleading context. The data remain the copyright of those organisations providing it - permission to reproduce it must be sought from both HM Treasury and
the providers of the original data.
Forecasts for 2012
February January Lowest Highest
GDP growth (per cent) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0
Inflation rate (Q4: per cent)
- CPI 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.7
- RPI 3.1 3.1 2.8 3.3 3.1
Claimant unemployment (Q4: mn) 1.59 1.58 1.56 1.70 1.59
Current account (£bn) -54.9 -55.6 -73.0 -50.0 -53.9
PSNB (2012-13: £bn) 90.9 91.9 78.4 109.0 90.7
Forecasts for 2013
February January Lowest Highest
GDP growth (per cent) 0.9 1.0 0.2 1.7 1.0
Inflation rate (Q4: per cent)
- CPI 2.4 2.3 1.8 3.3 2.4
- RPI 2.9 2.7 2.2 3.6 3.0
Claimant unemployment (Q4: mn) 1.59 1.61 1.45 1.80 1.59
Current account (£bn) -46.8 -44.5 -70.0 -33.9 -45.4
PSNB (2013-14: £bn) 107.4 107.3 96.0 123.1 107.0
Forecasts for 2014
February January Lowest Highest
GDP growth (per cent) 1.6 - 0.9 2.3 1.6
Inflation rate (Q4: per cent)
- CPI 2.3 - 1.0 3.7 2.3
- RPI 2.9 - 1.7 4.0 2.9
Claimant unemployment (Q4: mn) 1.56 - 1.33 1.90 1.56
Current account (£bn) -39.7 - -74.2 -22.4 -39.7
PSNB (2013-14: £bn) 97.0 - 84.7 119.8 97.0
Independent+Average of
new*
forecasts
Averages February
+ Independent averages, and the range of forecasts, are based on forecasts made in the last three months (February:
26 institutions, January: 6 institutions, December: 3 institutions).
*Calculated from new forecasts received for the comparison this month.
Note: All the averages given are the mean and exclude non-standard entries except for house-price inflation (see
notation) and PSNB for 2012-13 (only standard entries and those with the footnote 'ac' are included in the average).
Independent+
Independent+Average of
new*
forecasts
Averages February
FORECASTS FOR THE UK ECONOMY
This edition of the comparison contains 26 new forecasts, all of which were received between February 1st and
February 13th 2013. The tables below summarise the average and range of independent forecasts for 2012 and 2013
and show the average of this month’s new forecasts.
A comparison of independent forecasts, February 2013
FebruaryAverages
Average of
new*
forecasts
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 3
Forecasters and dates of forecasts
City forecasters
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Oct -0.3 0.4 2.0 2.1 -0.8 - - - -0.5 -
Barclays Capital Feb * 0.0 1.0 2.7 -0.6 -0.3 0.8 -0.4 1.9 -0.7 -2.0
Capital Economics Feb * 0.0 0.7 2.7 0.0 -0.3 0.9 -0.6 2.0 -0.9 -6.0
Citigroup Jan 0.1 0.8 2.6 -0.1 -0.2 1.0 -0.4 2.5 -0.9 -
Commerzbank Feb * 0.0 0.8 2.7 0.1 -0.3 0.9 -0.5 2.3 -0.9 -2.2
Credit Suisse Feb * 0.0 0.8 - -0.2 - - -0.1 - - -
Daiwa Capital Markets Jan 0.0 - - - - - - - - -
Deutsche Bank Jan -0.1 0.6 2.5 1.1 -0.3 0.9 0.1 1.9 -0.6 -
Fathom Consulting Feb * - - - - - - - - - -
Goldman Sachs Feb * 0.0 1.0 2.8 -0.2 -0.3 0.9 -0.5 2.3 -0.9 -3.2 i
HSBC Feb * 0.0 0.9 2.7 0.1 - 0.8 -0.2 2.2 - -
ING Financial Markets Dec 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.3 -0.5 0.6 0.4 2.3 -0.6 -
Lombard Street Feb * 0.1 1.0 2.7 -0.2 -0.2 0.9 -0.5 2.1 -0.8 -3.6
Morgan Stanley Feb * 0.0 1.0 2.7 0.3 -0.4 1.3 -0.6 2.1 -0.9 -
Nomura Feb * 0.0 0.9 2.7 0.0 -0.4 0.8 0.0 2.4 -0.8 -1.8
RBS Global Banking & Markets Feb * 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.0 - 0.4 0.2 2.0 -0.4 -
Santander GBM Feb * 0.0 1.0 2.9 -0.1 -0.4 0.9 -0.3 2.2 -0.8 -3.0
Schroders Investment Management Feb * 0.0 0.9 3.0 0.0 -0.5 0.8 -0.6 1.9 -0.8 -1.6
Scotiabank Jan 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.1 -0.6 0.6 -0.1 2.0 - -2.0
Societe Generale Feb * 0.0 0.9 2.5 -0.3 -0.3 0.7 -0.1 2.1 -0.7 -
Standard Chartered Bank Feb * 0.0 0.9 2.6 1.2 - 0.6 -0.1 2.0 -0.7 -
UBS Feb * 0.0 0.9 2.8 -0.2 -0.4 0.7 -0.1 2.3 -0.8 -
Non-City forecasters
British Chambers of Commerce Dec -0.1 0.5 2.5 1.3 -0.1 0.5 0.2 2.1 -0.6 -2.5
Beacon Economic Forecasting Feb * 0.0 1.0 2.8 0.1 -0.2 0.7 -1.0 1.8 -1.0 -
Cambridge Econometrics Jan 0.0 1.0 2.7 -0.5 0.3 0.8 -0.2 2.2 -0.8 -
CBI Feb * 0.0 1.0 2.8 0.2 -0.4 0.9 -0.4 2.3 -0.9 -
CEBR Feb * 0.0 0.8 2.8 -0.5 -0.4 0.7 -0.2 1.8 -0.6 -
Economic Perspectives Feb * 0.0 0.8 2.8 0.4 -0.3 0.9 -0.5 2.2 -0.8 -
Experian Economics Feb * 0.0 0.9 2.7 -0.1 -0.4 0.8 -0.3 2.0 -0.8 -
EIU Jan 0.0 0.7 2.7 -0.3 -0.4 0.5 -0.1 2.4 -0.7 -1.5
IHS Global Insight Feb * 0.0 0.9 2.8 0.0 - 0.8 -0.4 2.2 -0.8 -
Table 1 - 2012: Growth in GDP and its components (% change)
GD
P
Pri
vate
co
nsum
ptio
n
Go
vern
men
t
cons
umpt
ion
Fix
ed in
vest
men
t
Cha
nge
in in
vent
ori
es
cont
ribu
tio
n (%
of
GD
P)
Do
mes
tic
dem
and
To
tal e
xpo
rts
To
tal i
mpo
rts
Net
tra
de c
ont
ribu
tio
n
(% o
f GD
P)
Out
put
Gap
(as
% o
f
pote
ntia
l GD
P)
IHS Global Insight Feb 0.0 0.9 2.8 0.0 0.8 0.4 2.2 0.8
ITEM Club Feb * 0.0 1.0 2.8 -0.3 -0.4 1.0 -0.1 2.3 -0.7 -
Liverpool Macro Research Feb * 0.1 -0.3 c 2.5 m 3.2 d - - - - - -
NIESR Feb * 0.0 1.1 2.7 -0.1 -0.3 0.9 -0.6 2.2 -0.9 -
Oxford Economics Feb * - - - - - - - - - -
EC Nov -0.3 0.5 -2.0 1.9 -0.5 1.0 f 0.2 2.6 -0.7 -
OECD Dec -0.1 1.1 1.3 1.8 - 0.8 -0.2 2.8 -1.0 -
IMF Oct -0.4 - - 14.7 a - - -0.8 1.6 - -4.2
Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Independent 0.0 0.9 2.6 0.2 -0.3 0.8 -0.3 2.2 -0.8 -2.6
New (marked *) 0.0 0.9 2.7 0.0 -0.3 0.8 -0.3 2.1 -0.8 -2.9
City 0.0 0.8 2.7 0.2 -0.4 0.8 -0.2 2.1 -0.8 -2.8
Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Highest 0.1 1.1 3.0 1.8 0.3 1.3 0.4 2.8 -0.4 -1.5
Lowest -0.1 0.5 1.3 -0.6 -0.6 0.4 -1.0 1.8 -1.0 -6.0
Median 0.0 0.9 2.7 0.0 -0.3 0.8 -0.2 2.2 -0.8 -2.1
OBR Dec -0.1 0.5 2.4 1.0 -0.6 0.5 0.1 2.1 -0.6 -3.1
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 4
Forecasters and dates of forecasts
City forecasters
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Oct 2.5 2.9 - - - 0.50 - -
Barclays Capital Feb * 2.7 3.1 3.0 2.2 - 0.50 - -
Capital Economics Feb * 2.7 3.1 3.0 1.5 83.6 0.50 110.0 -
Citigroup Jan 2.6 3.1 3.0 1.4 83.1 0.50 111.8 -
Commerzbank Feb * 2.7 3.1 3.0 1.4 83.1 0.50 112.2 -
Credit Suisse Feb * 2.7 3.1 3.0 - - 0.50 111.6 -
Daiwa Capital Markets Jan 2.7 - - - - 0.50 - -
Deutsche Bank Jan 2.6 3.2 - 1.5 83.1 0.50 112.0 3.6
Fathom Consulting Feb * - - - - - - - -
Goldman Sachs Feb * - - - 1.5 - - 110.0 -2.0 g
HSBC Feb * - - - 1.6 - 0.50 - -
ING Financial Markets Dec 2.7 3.3 3.2 1.4 - 0.50 100.0 -3.8
Lombard Street Feb * 2.6 3.1 - - 83.7 0.50 110.9 5.7
Morgan Stanley Feb * 2.7 3.1 3.0 1.4 - 0.50 - -
Nomura Feb * 2.7 3.1 3.0 1.7 - 0.50 - -
RBS Global Banking & Markets Feb * 2.7 3.1 3.0 1.8 83.7 0.50 110.5 -
Santander GBM Feb * 2.7 3.1 3.0 1.4 - 0.50 112.0 -
Schroders Investment Management Feb * 2.7 3.2 3.2 1.4 - 0.50 - -
Scotiabank Jan 2.7 3.1 3.0 1.4 - 0.50 - -
Societe Generale Feb * 2.7 3.1 3.0 1.5 83.1 0.50 112.0 -
Standard Chartered Bank Feb * 2.7 - - - - 0.50 112.0 -
UBS Feb * 2.7 3.1 - 1.7 - 0.50 - -
Non-City forecasters
British Chambers of Commerce Dec 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.4 - 0.50 110.0 -
Beacon Economic Forecasting Feb * 2.7 3.1 3.0 1.5 83.6 0.50 111.6 4.2
Cambridge Econometrics Jan 2.7 h - - - - 0.50 h 105.0 -
CBI F b * 2 7 3 1 3 0 1 4 83 1 0 50 111 0
Off
icia
l Ban
k ra
te
(Q4,
%)
Oil
pri
ce (
Bre
nt,
$/b
bl)
M4
xIO
FC
Gro
wth
Table 2 - 2012: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change)
CP
I (Q
4)
RP
I (Q
4)
RP
IX (
Q4)
Ave
rage
ear
nin
gs
Ste
rlin
g in
dex
(Q
4)
(Jan
200
5=10
0)
CBI Feb * 2.7 3.1 3.0 1.4 83.1 0.50 111.0 -
CEBR Feb * 2.7 3.1 3.0 1.4 83.7 0.50 111.7 -
Economic Perspectives Feb * 2.8 3.1 3.1 1.3 82.5 0.50 111.0 3.7
Experian Economics Feb * 2.7 3.2 3.0 1.5 86.2 0.50 108.0 -
EIU Jan 2.8 3.3 3.0 1.5 83.2 0.50 111.9 -
IHS Global Insight Feb * 2.7 3.1 3.0 1.4 - 0.50 111.7 -
ITEM Club Feb * 2.7 3.0 3.0 1.8 83.7 0.50 111.0 -
Liverpool Macro Research Feb * 2.8 - 3.3 1.8 83.6 0.50 - -
NIESR Feb * 2.7 3.1 3.0 2.7 j 85.3 k 0.50 110.5 n -
Oxford Economics Feb * - - - - - - - -
EC Nov 2.2 - - 0.2 jw - - 112.6 -
OECD Dec 2.6 h - - - - - - -
IMF Oct 2.2 - - - - - - -
Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Independent 2.7 3.1 3.0 1.6 83.5 0.50 110.4 2.7
New (marked *) 2.7 3.1 3.0 1.6 83.6 0.50 111.1 4.5
City 2.7 3.1 3.0 1.5 83.3 0.50 110.4 1.8
Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Highest 2.8 3.3 3.3 2.4 86.2 0.50 112.2 5.7
Lowest 2.6 2.8 2.7 1.3 82.5 0.50 100.0 -3.8
Median 2.7 3.1 3.0 1.5 83.6 0.50 111.3 3.7
OBR Dec 2.6 3.2 3.2 2.7 83.8 0.50 111.9 -
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 5
Forecasters and dates of forecasts
City forecasters
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Oct -1.0 y - - 8.30 q -1.1 - -53.0 425.0 107.0 ac
Barclays Capital Feb * -1.0 y 2.1 1.1 1.57 -1.8 - -55.0 - 78.4 ac
Capital Economics Feb * -1.0 y 2.0 1.0 1.60 -1.8 2.0 -52.0 375.0 85.0 ac
Citigroup Jan -1.3 k 1.8 1.7 1.58 -1.8 - -58.4 375.0 85.7 ac
Commerzbank Feb * -1.0 y 1.8 1.1 1.57 -1.8 1.9 -54.3 - 100.0 ac
Credit Suisse Feb * - - - - - - -52.6 - 80.5 ac
Daiwa Capital Markets Jan - - - 1.60 - - -50.0 - -
Deutsche Bank Jan -1.6 xy 2.1 - 1.58 -1.6 - -73.0 375.0 85.0 ac
Fathom Consulting Feb * - - - - - - - - -
Goldman Sachs Feb * - 2.1 1.8 - -1.8 - -55.0 - 109.0 ac
HSBC Feb * - - - - -1.9 - - - -
ING Financial Markets Dec -2.0 x 0.5 1.0 1.59 -1.8 - -62.0 375.0 102.0 ac
Lombard Street Feb * 3.0 k 2.0 1.3 - - - -51.1 375.0 91.0 ac
Morgan Stanley Feb * - 1.1 1.1 - -1.8 - - 375.0 82.7 ac
Nomura Feb * 2.3 z - 1.5 - -1.8 - -53.4 - 79.4 ac
RBS Global Banking & Markets Feb * - 2.0 1.1 1.57 -1.8 - -51.0 375.0 85.0 ac
Santander GBM Feb * - - 1.2 1.58 -1.8 - -62.3 375.0 95.9 ac
Schroders Investment Management Feb * 0.3 x - 1.6 1.70 -1.8 - -60.0 375.0 102.0 ac
Scotiabank Jan -1.0 y - 1.2 1.58 -1.8 - -55.0 375.0 83.0 ac
Societe Generale Feb * 0.2 x - 1.2 1.59 -1.8 - -54.0 375.0 86.0 ac
Standard Chartered Bank Feb * - - - 1.57 - - - - 95.0 ac
UBS Feb * - - - 1.56 -1.8 - -52.1 - 85.0 ac
Non-City forecasters
British Chambers of Commerce Dec 0.5 x - 1.1 1.60 - 2.2 - 375.0 92.0 ac
Beacon Economic Forecasting Feb * 2.1 z - 1.4 1.57 -1.8 1.5 -52.4 375.0 83.9 ac
Cambridge Econometrics Jan - - 2.3 1.60 h -1.6 2.4 t -55.6 - -
CBI Feb * - 1.8 1.4 1.56 -1.8 - -55.2 - 102.8 ac
CEBR Feb * 1.1 kz 1.8 1.2 1.60 -1.8 2.3 -56.0 375.0 79.9 ac
Economic Perspectives Feb * -2.0 x 1.9 1.7 1.60 -1.8 2.0 -50.0 375.0 102.0 ac
Experian Economics Feb * 1.5 z 2.0 1.0 1.64 -1.0 - -53.5 - 103.1 ac
EIU Jan - 0.7 1.1 1.58 -1.8 - -52.3 375.0 102.0 ac
IHS Global Insight Feb * -0.3 x 1.8 1.2 1.57 -1.8 - -55.1 375.0 93.8 ac
Wo
rld
trad
e in
go
ods
and
serv
ices
Cur
rent
acc
oun
t (£
bn)
Siz
e o
f AP
F p
urch
ases
(£bn
)
PS
NB
(£bn
201
2-13
)
Table 3 - 2012: Growth in other selected variables (% change)
Ho
use
pric
e in
flati
on
(Q4)
Rea
l ho
useh
old
disp
osa
ble
inco
me
Em
plo
ymen
t gr
ow
th
Cla
iman
t
unem
plo
ymen
t
(Q4,
mill
ions
)
Man
ufac
turi
ng o
utpu
t
g
ITEM Club Feb * -0.4 z 2.0 0.7 1.57 -1.6 2.9 - - 80.2 ac
Liverpool Macro Research Feb * - - - 1.56 - - -51.2 - 95.4 ac
NIESR Feb * 1.9 hz 2.0 1.2 2.55 hp - 3.2 -51.0 - 90.1 ac
Oxford Economics Feb * - - - - - - - - -
EC Nov - - 0.5 7.90 hq - - -3.8 a - -5.8 a ab
OECD Dec - - 1.0 k 7.91 hq - - -3.3 a - -6.6 k
IMF Oct - - - 8.13 hq - - -80.6 k - 99.6 h ac
Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Independent 0.0 1.7 1.3 1.59 -1.7 2.3 -54.9 375.0 90.9
New (marked *) 0.4 1.9 1.3 1.59 -1.8 2.3 -53.9 375.0 90.7
City -0.3 1.7 1.3 1.59 -1.8 2.0 -56.0 375.0 89.5
Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Highest 3.0 2.1 2.3 1.70 -1.0 3.2 -50.0 375.0 109.0
Lowest -2.0 0.5 0.7 1.56 -1.9 1.5 -73.0 375.0 78.4
Median -0.4 1.9 1.2 1.58 -1.8 2.1 -54.0 375.0 90.1
OBR Dec 1.4 z 2.1 - 1.58 - 3.0 -62.2 - 80.5
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 6
Forecasters and dates of forecasts
City forecasters
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Oct 1.0 0.4 -1.6 3.3 0.1 - - - 0.5 -
Barclays Capital Feb * 1.0 0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 0.5 2.0 0.3 0.6 -2.2
Capital Economics Feb * 0.2 0.0 -1.5 2.5 0.5 0.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.3 -7.3
Citigroup Jan 0.4 0.6 -0.6 -3.4 0.1 -0.1 3.3 1.6 0.5 -
Commerzbank Feb * 1.0 1.0 -0.3 3.1 0.2 1.2 1.3 1.7 -0.2 -2.2
Credit Suisse Feb * 1.2 0.8 - 2.9 - - 3.4 - - -
Daiwa Capital Markets Jan 0.7 - - - - - - - - -
Deutsche Bank Jan 0.9 0.7 -1.1 1.1 0.4 0.8 2.3 0.8 0.5 -
Fathom Consulting Feb * 0.9 0.6 0.6 1.5 0.2 0.6 2.4 2.2 0.0 -0.9
Goldman Sachs Feb * 1.4 1.8 0.4 1.5 0.3 1.8 0.8 2.0 -0.4 -3.5 i
HSBC Feb * 1.1 0.6 -0.4 3.5 - 0.9 1.4 0.5 - -
ING Financial Markets Dec 1.3 1.1 -0.7 3.0 0.5 1.4 6.1 5.7 0.0 -
Lombard Street Feb * 1.2 1.4 -0.4 3.7 0.1 1.3 0.7 1.1 -0.2 -3.8
Morgan Stanley Feb * 0.8 0.5 -1.0 2.6 0.2 0.5 1.4 1.2 0.1 -
Nomura Feb * 0.4 0.9 -1.0 1.1 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.2 -0.1 -1.2
RBS Global Banking & Markets Feb * 0.9 0.8 -0.9 2.0 - 0.4 3.5 2.1 0.5 -
Santander GBM Feb * 1.1 1.3 0.6 1.5 0.1 1.2 2.5 2.1 0.1 -2.4
Schroders Investment Management Feb * 0.7 0.7 -0.2 1.8 0.2 0.8 -0.2 0.6 -0.3 -2.1
Scotiabank Jan 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.4 0.3 1.0 1.2 1.4 - -2.0
Societe Generale Feb * 0.8 0.6 -1.0 1.3 0.2 0.5 2.9 1.8 0.3 -
Standard Chartered Bank Feb * 1.1 1.0 -1.1 2.1 - 1.0 2.8 2.4 0.1 -
UBS Feb * 0.8 1.1 -0.3 1.9 0.1 0.8 2.1 2.1 0.0 -
Non-City forecasters
British Chambers of Commerce Dec 1.0 1.1 -0.7 1.5 0.3 1.0 3.5 3.0 0.1 -2.7
Beacon Economic Forecasting Feb * 1.4 2.0 0.1 4.4 0.1 2.1 0.9 2.5 -0.6 -
Cambridge Econometrics Jan 0.7 1.0 -1.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 1.3 0.0 -
CBI Feb * 1.0 1.1 -0.8 2.8 0.1 1.1 3.1 3.2 -0.1 -
CEBR Feb * 0.7 0.5 -0.1 -0.5 0.1 0.2 1.2 -0.9 0.7 -
Economic Perspectives Feb * 1.7 0.5 -1.3 7.3 k 0.1 1.2 1.5 -0.5 0.6 -
Experian Economics Feb * 0.7 0.5 -1.6 3.3 0.2 0.6 2.2 1.6 0.2 -
EIU Jan 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.4 0.2 0.8 2.2 2.9 -0.2 -1.7
IHS Global Insight Feb * 0.8 1.1 -0.3 2.0 - 0.9 1.8 2.1 -0.1 -
Cha
nge
in in
vent
ori
es
cont
ribu
tio
n (%
of
GD
P)
Do
mes
tic
dem
and
To
tal e
xpo
rts
To
tal i
mpo
rts
Net
tra
de c
ont
ribu
tio
n
(% o
f GD
P)
Out
put
Gap
(as
% o
f
pote
ntia
l GD
P)
Table 4 - 2013: Growth in GDP and its components (% change)
GD
P
Pri
vate
co
nsum
ptio
n
Go
vern
men
t
cons
umpt
ion
Fix
ed in
vest
men
t
IHS Global Insight Feb 0.8 1.1 0.3 2.0 0.9 1.8 2.1 0.1
ITEM Club Feb * 0.9 1.1 -0.5 1.8 0.1 1.0 3.1 2.9 0.0 -
Liverpool Macro Research Feb * 1.5 0.8 c 2.4 m 2.3 d - - - - - -
NIESR Feb * 0.7 1.4 -0.4 3.2 0.2 1.4 0.8 2.9 -0.7 -
Oxford Economics Feb * 0.9 1.1 -0.3 2.8 0.2 1.2 1.9 2.8 -0.3 -5.6
EC Nov 0.9 0.9 -1.3 2.9 0.1 0.6 f 3.9 2.8 0.3 -
OECD Dec 0.9 1.6 -3.0 2.5 - 1.0 2.4 2.6 -0.1 -
IMF Oct 1.1 - - 14.9 a - - 2.4 1.0 - -4.4
Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Independent 0.9 0.9 -0.6 1.9 0.2 0.9 2.0 1.8 0.0 -2.8
New (marked *) 1.0 0.9 -0.5 2.2 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.6 0.0 -3.1
City 0.9 0.9 -0.5 1.7 0.2 0.8 2.0 1.6 0.1 -2.7
Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Highest 1.7 2.0 0.6 4.4 0.6 2.1 6.1 5.7 0.7 -0.9
Lowest 0.2 0.0 -3.0 -3.4 0.0 -0.1 -2.5 -1.5 -0.7 -7.3
Median 0.9 1.0 -0.5 2.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.0 0.0 -2.2
OBR Dec 1.2 0.9 -0.7 2.1 0.2 0.9 3.1 2.1 0.3 -3.5
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 7
Forecasters and dates of forecasts
City forecasters
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Oct 1.8 1.7 - - - 0.50 - -
Barclays Capital Feb * 2.7 3.4 3.4 2.7 - 0.50 - -
Capital Economics Feb * 2.0 2.7 2.7 1.5 82.3 0.50 95.0 -
Citigroup Jan 2.4 2.3 2.3 0.7 83.1 0.50 111.7 -
Commerzbank Feb * 2.6 3.1 3.1 1.7 80.8 0.50 121.7 -
Credit Suisse Feb * 1.9 2.9 2.7 - - 0.50 115.0 -
Daiwa Capital Markets Jan 2.5 - - - - 0.50 - -
Deutsche Bank Jan 2.4 2.3 - 2.3 82.3 0.50 113.5 4.5
Fathom Consulting Feb * 2.2 2.5 2.4 3.7 75.0 0.70 110.0 -
Goldman Sachs Feb * 2.0 2.9 - 2.0 84.0 g 0.50 115.0 0.0 g
HSBC Feb * 2.5 3.3 - 2.4 - 0.50 - -
ING Financial Markets Dec 2.0 2.8 2.8 2.2 - 0.50 120.0 1.5
Lombard Street Feb * 2.1 2.3 - - 78.0 0.50 95.0 3.9
Morgan Stanley Feb * 2.7 3.1 3.1 2.3 - 0.50 - -
Nomura Feb * 2.6 3.4 3.5 1.6 - 0.50 - -
RBS Global Banking & Markets Feb * 2.4 3.0 3.1 2.8 83.0 0.50 105.0 -
Santander GBM Feb * 2.9 3.5 3.4 1.8 - 0.50 115.0 -
Schroders Investment Management Feb * 3.1 3.3 3.2 1.8 - 0.50 - -
Scotiabank Jan 2.9 3.4 3.2 1.6 - 0.50 - -
Societe Generale Feb * 2.3 2.2 2.3 1.9 81.0 0.50 109.9 -
Standard Chartered Bank Feb * 2.2 - - - - 0.50 112.0 -
UBS Feb * 2.9 3.5 - 2.3 - 0.50 - -
Non-City forecasters
British Chambers of Commerce Dec 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.9 - 0.50 110.0 -Beacon Economic Forecasting Feb * 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.4 75.3 0.70 114.0 6.2
Cambridge Econometrics Jan 2.1 h - - - - 0.50 h 110.0 -
CBI F b * 2 3 2 8 2 7 1 7 80 6 0 50 110 0
Table 5 - 2013: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change)
CP
I (Q
4)
RP
I (Q
4)
RP
IX (
Q4)
Ave
rage
ear
nin
gs
Ste
rlin
g in
dex
(Q
4)
(Jan
200
5=10
0)
Off
icia
l Ban
k ra
te
(Q4,
%)
Oil
pri
ce (
Bre
nt,
$/b
bl)
M4
xIO
FC
Gro
wth
CBI Feb * 2.3 2.8 2.7 1.7 80.6 0.50 110.0 -
CEBR Feb * 2.3 3.0 3.0 1.9 82.7 0.50 106.0 -
Economic Perspectives Feb * 3.3 3.6 3.8 2.2 77.0 1.25 120.0 7.0
Experian Economics Feb * 2.7 3.3 3.1 2.4 86.8 0.50 100.1 -
EIU Jan 2.8 2.9 2.9 1.9 83.5 0.50 103.8 -
IHS Global Insight Feb * 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.2 - 0.50 102.8 -
ITEM Club Feb * 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.4 84.0 0.50 112.0 -
Liverpool Macro Research Feb * 2.7 - 3.2 2.2 83.3 1.00 - -
NIESR Feb * 2.2 3.3 2.7 1.8 j 84.9 k 0.50 103.9 n -
Oxford Economics Feb * 1.8 2.6 2.5 1.8 83.2 0.50 106.1 -
EC Nov 1.9 - - 0.5 jw - - 109.1 -
OECD Dec 1.9 h - - - - - - -
IMF Oct 1.7 - - - - - - -
Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Independent 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.1 81.3 0.55 109.7 4.6
New (marked *) 2.4 3.0 3.0 2.2 80.9 0.56 109.1 5.7
City 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.1 80.7 0.51 110.7 3.3
Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Highest 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.7 86.8 1.25 121.7 7.0
Lowest 1.8 2.2 2.3 0.7 75.0 0.50 95.0 1.5
Median 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.2 82.3 0.50 110.0 4.5
OBR Dec 2.3 2.5 2.8 2.2 83.6 0.50 106.4 -
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 8
Forecasters and dates of forecasts
City forecasters
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Oct -4.0 y - - 8.60 q 1.2 - -32.0 425.0 115.0
Barclays Capital Feb * 2.1 y 0.4 0.6 1.55 -1.4 - -50.1 - 99.1
Capital Economics Feb * -5.0 y -0.5 -1.0 1.80 -1.0 3.0 -35.0 500.0 112.0
Citigroup Jan -1.1 k -0.5 0.7 1.48 -0.6 - -52.3 450.0 108.3
Commerzbank Feb * -0.1 y 2.2 1.1 1.52 0.1 3.3 -39.4 - 112.0
Credit Suisse Feb * - - - - - - -40.3 - 99.0
Daiwa Capital Markets Jan - - - 1.50 - - -35.0 - -
Deutsche Bank Jan -1.8 xy 1.7 - 1.61 0.1 - -70.0 375.0 110.0
Fathom Consulting Feb * -0.2 x 0.7 1.3 1.50 - - -39.0 475.0 104.0
Goldman Sachs Feb * - 1.9 0.7 1.57 0.2 - -53.0 - 100.0
HSBC Feb * - - - - -0.1 - - - -
ING Financial Markets Dec 2.0 x 1.3 0.5 1.58 1.5 - -48.0 425.0 110.0
Lombard Street Feb * -0.1 k 0.2 -0.4 - - - -54.0 425.0 110.0
Morgan Stanley Feb * - -0.5 0.7 - -0.7 - - 375.0 107.3
Nomura Feb * 1.5 z - 1.0 - -1.5 - -42.3 - 102.8
RBS Global Banking & Markets Feb * - 1.0 0.3 1.61 -0.2 - -38.0 375.0 105.0
Santander GBM Feb * - - 0.8 1.59 1.8 - -59.1 375.0 118.0
Schroders Investment Management Feb * 1.4 x - 0.4 1.56 -0.1 - -50.0 450.0 100.0
Scotiabank Jan 0.5 y - 0.4 1.55 0.4 - -50.0 375.0 102.0
Societe Generale Feb * 1.5 x - 1.1 1.66 0.7 - -48.0 425.0 113.0
Standard Chartered Bank Feb * - - - 1.50 - - - - 110.0
UBS Feb * - - - 1.62 0.3 - -45.0 - 110.0
Non-City forecasters
British Chambers of Commerce Dec 1.4 x - 1.2 1.70 - 3.3 - 375.0 110.0Beacon Economic Forecasting Feb * 3.1 z - 0.7 1.52 1.0 6.6 -56.1 375.0 115.7
Cambridge Econometrics Jan - - 0.6 1.50 h 0.2 2.8 t -49.7 - -
CBI Feb * - 0.4 0.2 1.55 0.7 - -49.7 - 123.1
CEBR Feb * 0.8 kz 0.8 0.9 1.60 -0.5 2.6 -39.0 450.0 103.8
Economic Perspectives Feb * 2.0 x -0.5 0.5 1.80 2.2 5.0 -35.0 375.0 120.0
Experian Economics Feb * 1.1 z 0.8 0.0 1.63 1.7 - -40.8 - 105.7
EIU Jan - 0.4 0.2 1.70 0.3 - -54.9 425.0 114.3
IHS Global Insight Feb * 0.9 x 0.3 1.1 1.65 0.7 - -45.2 425.0 96.0
Siz
e o
f AP
F p
urch
ases
(£bn
)
PS
NB
(£bn
201
3-14
)
Table 6 - 2013: Growth in other selected variables (% change)
Ho
use
pric
e in
flati
on
(Q4)
Rea
l ho
useh
old
disp
osa
ble
inco
me
Em
plo
ymen
t gr
ow
th
Cla
iman
t
unem
plo
ymen
t
(Q4,
mill
ions
)
Man
ufac
turi
ng o
utpu
t
Wo
rld
trad
e in
go
ods
and
serv
ices
Cur
rent
acc
oun
t (£
bn)
g
ITEM Club Feb * 0.4 z 1.0 0.6 1.57 1.0 3.9 -46.0 - 100.2
Liverpool Macro Research Feb * - - - 1.45 - - -52.2 - 98.2
NIESR Feb * 0.6 hz 0.9 0.5 2.60 hp - 4.6 -33.9 - 109.8
Oxford Economics Feb * -0.1 z 0.7 0.0 1.61 0.2 3.8 -52.5 375.0 100.6
EC Nov - - 0.5 8.00 hq - - 2.2 a - -6.9 a ab
OECD Dec - - 0.4 k 8.01 hq - - -3.5 a - -6.9 k
IMF Oct - - - 8.11 hq - - -68.6 k - 117.0 h
Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Independent 0.5 0.6 0.5 1.59 0.3 4.0 -46.8 411.8 107.4
New (marked *) 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.59 0.3 4.1 -45.4 415.4 107.0
City 0.1 0.7 0.5 1.57 0.0 3.2 -47.1 418.8 107.0
Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Highest 3.1 2.2 1.3 1.80 2.2 6.6 -33.9 500.0 123.1
Lowest -5.0 -0.5 -1.0 1.45 -1.5 2.6 -70.0 375.0 96.0
Median 0.9 0.7 0.6 1.58 0.2 3.8 -48.0 425.0 108.3
OBR Dec 1.1 z 0.4 - 1.69 - 4.4 -41.5 - 99
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 9
Forecasters and dates of forecasts
City forecasters
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Oct - - - - - - - - - -
Barclays Capital Feb * 2.1 1.5 -1.4 6.3 0.2 1.7 4.7 3.3 0.4 -1.7
Capital Economics Feb * 1.5 1.0 -2.0 6.5 0.2 1.3 0.0 -0.5 0.2 -7.3
Citigroup Jan - - - - - - - - - -
Commerzbank Feb * 1.4 2.0 -1.4 2.9 0.0 1.3 2.6 2.2 0.1 -2.1
Credit Suisse Feb * 2.0 1.4 - 6.4 - - 5.1 - - -
Daiwa Capital Markets Jan - - - - - - - - - -
Deutsche Bank Jan - - - - - - - - - -
Fathom Consulting Feb * 1.1 1.0 -2.6 1.5 0.2 0.2 1.1 -0.9 0.6 -0.8
Goldman Sachs Feb * 2.0 2.0 0.8 3.2 0.0 1.9 3.0 2.7 0.0 -3.7 i
HSBC Feb * 2.0 1.3 -1.0 6.4 - 1.4 3.8 2.0 - -
ING Financial Markets Dec - - - - - - - - - -
Lombard Street Feb * 1.7 1.8 -1.5 3.8 0.0 1.7 3.1 3.0 0.0 -3.7
Morgan Stanley Feb * 1.6 1.0 -1.9 5.3 0.3 1.0 5.2 3.9 0.3 -
Nomura Feb * 0.9 1.3 -1.6 2.7 -0.1 0.7 3.1 2.3 0.2 -1.2
RBS Global Banking & Markets Feb * 1.5 1.5 -1.9 4.7 - 1.4 5.1 4.6 0.1 -
Santander GBM Feb * 1.7 1.8 0.4 3.9 0.0 1.8 5.2 5.3 -0.1 -2.0
Schroders Investment Management Feb * 1.3 1.1 -1.4 3.7 0.2 1.0 4.0 4.6 0.1 -2.0
Scotiabank Jan - - - - - - - - - -
Societe Generale Feb * 1.4 1.1 -2.0 3.6 0.0 0.8 3.5 1.7 0.6 -
Standard Chartered Bank Feb * - - - - - - - - - -
UBS Feb * 1.2 1.6 0.0 3.5 0.0 1.5 2.0 3.0 -0.4 -
Non-City forecasters
British Chambers of Commerce Dec - - - - - - - - - -
Beacon Economic Forecasting Feb * 2.3 2.7 0.0 6.6 0.1 2.7 6.4 7.3 -0.5 -
Cambridge Econometrics Jan - - - - - - - - - -
CBI Feb * 2.0 1.9 -1.4 5.2 0.2 1.8 6.4 5.8 0.1 -
CEBR Feb * 1.3 0.9 -1.4 1.7 0.1 0.7 3.2 1.2 0.6 -
Economic Perspectives Feb * 1.4 1.5 -1.1 4.2 -0.1 1.1 2.0 0.7 0.4 -
Experian Economics Feb * 1.5 1.7 -2.4 7.0 0.0 1.5 4.0 3.9 0.0 -
EIU Jan - - - - - - - - - -
IHS Global Insight Feb * 1.4 1.6 -0.4 3.4 - 1.4 2.5 2.4 0.0 -
Net
tra
de c
ont
ribu
tio
n
(% o
f GD
P)
Out
put
Gap
(as
% o
f
pote
ntia
l GD
P)
Table 7 - 2014: Growth in GDP and its components (% change)
GD
P
Pri
vate
co
nsum
ptio
n
Go
vern
men
t
cons
umpt
ion
Fix
ed in
vest
men
t
Cha
nge
in in
vent
ori
es
cont
ribu
tio
n (%
of
GD
P)
Do
mes
tic
dem
and
To
tal e
xpo
rts
To
tal i
mpo
rts
IHS Global Insight Feb 1.4 1.6 0.4 3.4 1.4 2.5 2.4 0.0
ITEM Club Feb * 1.9 2.0 -2.3 6.3 0.1 1.7 5.1 4.2 0.2 -
Liverpool Macro Research Feb * 2.0 1.8 c 2.3 m 2.1 d - - - - - -
NIESR Feb * 1.5 1.2 -1.4 7.2 -0.1 1.4 5.9 5.2 0.1 -
Oxford Economics Feb * 2.1 2.0 -1.4 5.6 0.0 1.8 4.7 3.8 0.2 -5.3
EC Nov - - - - - - - - - -
OECD Dec 1.6 1.4 -1.8 3.7 - 1.1 3.6 2.0 - -
IMF Oct 2.2 - - 15.2 a - - 5.2 2.7 - -3.6
Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Independent 1.6 1.5 -1.3 4.6 0.1 1.4 3.8 3.1 0.1 -2.9
New (marked *) 1.6 1.5 -1.3 4.7 0.1 1.4 3.8 3.1 0.1 -2.9
City 1.6 1.4 -1.2 4.3 0.1 1.3 3.4 2.7 0.2 -2.6
Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Highest 2.3 2.7 0.8 7.2 0.3 2.7 6.4 7.3 0.6 -0.8
Lowest 0.9 0.9 -2.6 1.5 -0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.9 -0.5 -7.3
Median 1.5 1.5 -1.4 4.2 0.0 1.4 3.8 3.0 0.1 -2.0
OBR Dec 2.0 1.6 -1.4 8.1 0.0 1.9 4.5 3.9 0.2 -3.3
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 10
Forecasters and dates of forecasts
City forecasters
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Oct - - - - - - - -
Barclays Capital Feb * 2.4 3.4 3.3 3.5 - 1.25 - -
Capital Economics Feb * 1.0 1.7 1.8 2.0 81.5 0.50 90.0 -
Citigroup Jan - - - - - - - -
Commerzbank Feb * 2.3 2.8 2.7 2.8 82.5 0.50 119.9 -
Credit Suisse Feb * 2.0 2.7 2.7 - - 0.50 110.0 -
Daiwa Capital Markets Jan - - - - - - - -
Deutsche Bank Jan - - - - - - - -
Fathom Consulting Feb * 2.0 2.5 2.4 1.7 75.0 0.50 100.0 -
Goldman Sachs Feb * 2.0 3.1 - 2.2 84.0 g 0.50 115.0 2.0 g
HSBC Feb * 2.4 3.5 - 2.6 - 0.50 - -
ING Financial Markets Dec - - - - - - - -
Lombard Street Feb * 2.2 2.4 - - 82.0 0.50 95.0 4.4
Morgan Stanley Feb * 2.5 3.3 3.1 3.2 - 1.00 - -
Nomura Feb * 2.5 3.1 3.1 2.3 - 0.50 - -
RBS Global Banking & Markets Feb * 2.2 3.0 3.0 3.2 82.2 0.50 101.0 -
Santander GBM Feb * 2.4 3.3 2.9 2.1 - 1.00 115.0 -
Schroders Investment Management Feb * 2.9 3.4 3.6 2.1 - 0.50 - -
Scotiabank Jan - - 3.6 - - - - -
Societe Generale Feb * 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.0 79.0 0.50 110.0 -
Standard Chartered Bank Feb * - - - - - - - -
UBS Feb * 2.7 3.2 - 2.0 - 0.50 - -
Non-City forecasters
British Chambers of Commerce Dec - - - - - - - -Beacon Economic Forecasting Feb * 2.5 3.3 3.4 2.9 73.7 1.80 115.5 6.7
Cambridge Econometrics Jan - - - - - - - -
CBI F b * 2 2 2 5 2 4 2 2 79 9 1 00 117 0
Table 8 - 2014: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change)
CP
I (Q
4)
RP
I (Q
4)
RP
IX (
Q4)
Ave
rage
ear
nin
gs
Ste
rlin
g in
dex
(Q
4)
(Jan
200
5=10
0)
Off
icia
l Ban
k ra
te
(Q4,
%)
Oil
pri
ce (
Bre
nt,
$/b
bl)
M4
xIO
FC
Gro
wth
CBI Feb * 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.2 79.9 1.00 117.0 -
CEBR Feb * 2.2 3.0 3.0 2.4 83.0 0.50 110.0 -
Economic Perspectives Feb * 3.7 4.0 4.2 2.7 75.0 2.00 125.0 12.0
Experian Economics Feb * 2.4 3.1 2.9 3.2 88.4 0.50 105.3 -
EIU Jan - - - - - - - -
IHS Global Insight Feb * 1.9 2.4 2.4 2.5 - 0.50 93.0 -
ITEM Club Feb * 2.5 3.0 2.9 3.2 83.0 0.50 117.0 -
Liverpool Macro Research Feb * 2.5 - 3.0 2.8 82.7 2.00 - -
NIESR Feb * 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.7 j 85.2 k 0.50 98.1 n -
Oxford Economics Feb * 1.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 85.8 0.50 108.6 -
EC Nov - - - - - - - -
OECD Dec 1.8 h - - - - - - -
IMF Oct 1.7 - - - - - - -
Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Independent 2.3 2.9 2.9 2.6 81.0 0.76 108.7 7.7
New (marked *) 2.3 2.9 2.9 2.6 81.0 0.76 108.7 7.7
City 2.3 2.9 2.9 2.4 80.4 0.62 106.2 4.4
Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Highest 3.7 4.0 4.2 3.5 88.4 2.00 125.0 12.0
Lowest 1.0 1.7 1.8 1.7 73.7 0.50 90.0 4.4
Median 2.4 3.0 2.9 2.5 82.1 0.50 110.0 6.7
OBR Dec 2.1 2.9 3.1 2.8 83.4 0.50 101.7 -
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 11
Forecasters and dates of forecasts
City forecasters
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Oct - - - - - - - - -
Barclays Capital Feb * 5.9 y 0.2 0.3 1.59 2.9 - -51.4 - 87.8
Capital Economics Feb * -3.0 y 1.0 -1.5 1.70 1.5 4.0 -25.0 500.0 110.0
Citigroup Jan - - - - - - - - -
Commerzbank Feb * 1.9 y 3.9 0.7 1.42 0.1 4.7 -37.3 - 105.0
Credit Suisse Feb * - - - - - - -25.2 - 88.0
Daiwa Capital Markets Jan - - - - - - - - -
Deutsche Bank Jan - - - - - - - - -
Fathom Consulting Feb * -0.4 x 0.5 0.7 1.50 - - -24.0 475.0 93.0
Goldman Sachs Feb * - 2.0 0.6 1.55 2.0 - -49.0 - 88.0
HSBC Feb * - - - - 3.0 - - - -
ING Financial Markets Dec - - - - - - - - -
Lombard Street Feb * 2.1 k 0.3 -0.2 - - - -56.6 475.0 92.0
Morgan Stanley Feb * - 0.2 1.0 - 2.8 - - 375.0 103.7
Nomura Feb * 1.8 z - 1.2 - -0.4 - -41.9 - 87.2
RBS Global Banking & Markets Feb * - 1.4 0.1 1.65 1.1 - -32.0 375.0 95.0
Santander GBM Feb * - - 0.9 1.52 2.0 - -52.8 375.0 108.0
Schroders Investment Management Feb * 1.4 x - 0.9 1.44 1.3 - -55.0 450.0 85.0
Scotiabank Jan - - - - - - - - -
Societe Generale Feb * 1.5 x - 0.4 1.75 1.5 - -33.0 425.0 106.0
Standard Chartered Bank Feb * - - - - - - - - -
UBS Feb * - - - 1.68 1.9 - -24.0 - 95.0
Non-City forecasters
British Chambers of Commerce Dec - - - - - - - - -Beacon Economic Forecasting Feb * 7.3 z - 1.0 1.38 3.1 9.4 -74.2 375.0 119.8
Cambridge Econometrics Jan - - - - - - - - -
CBI Feb * - 1.3 0.4 1.48 2.2 - -43.8 - 112.5
CEBR Feb * 1.9 kz 1.0 0.5 1.50 0.6 4.5 -35.0 450.0 96.0
Economic Perspectives Feb * 5.0 x -0.5 0.5 1.90 1.4 6.0 -25.0 375.0 105.0
Experian Economics Feb * 2.1 z 1.5 1.0 1.48 1.9 - -35.2 - 99.3
EIU Jan - - - - - - - - -
IHS Global Insight Feb * 2.9 x 1.1 1.0 1.64 1.6 - -40.0 425.0 93.0
Table 9 - 2014: Growth in other selected variables (% change)
Ho
use
pric
e in
flati
on
(Q4)
Rea
l ho
useh
old
disp
osa
ble
inco
me
Em
plo
ymen
t gr
ow
th
Cla
iman
t
unem
plo
ymen
t
(Q4,
mill
ions
)
Man
ufac
turi
ng o
utpu
t
Wo
rld
trad
e in
go
ods
and
serv
ices
Cur
rent
acc
oun
t (£
bn)
Siz
e o
f AP
F p
urch
ases
(£bn
)
PS
NB
(£bn
201
4-15
)
g
ITEM Club Feb * 3.2 z 0.6 0.8 1.44 4.2 6.6 -25.0 - 90.0
Liverpool Macro Research Feb * - - - 1.33 - - -52.8 - 84.7
NIESR Feb * -3.5 hz 1.5 0.7 2.59 hp - 5.9 -22.4 - 96.0
Oxford Economics Feb * 0.6 z 1.5 0.6 1.61 2.4 6.1 -51.8 375.0 87.0
EC Nov - - - - - - - - -
OECD Dec - - 0.9 k 8.04 hq - - -3.1 a - -6.0 k
IMF Oct - - - 7.95 hq - - -59.5 k - 96.9 h ac
Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Independent 2.3 1.1 0.5 1.56 1.9 5.9 -39.7 419.2 97.0
New (marked *) 2.3 1.1 0.5 1.56 1.9 5.9 -39.7 419.2 97.0
City 1.4 1.2 0.4 1.58 1.6 4.4 -39.0 431.3 96.0
Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Highest 7.3 3.9 1.2 1.90 4.2 9.4 -22.4 500.0 119.8
Lowest -3.0 -0.5 -1.5 1.33 -0.4 4.0 -74.2 375.0 84.7
Median 1.9 1.1 0.7 1.52 1.9 6.0 -37.3 425.0 95.0
OBR Dec 3.4 z 0.8 - 1.67 - 5.9 -38.1 - 88
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 12
1
2
3
4
5
6
Average of independent forecasts for 2012; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation and claimant unemployment
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
3.0
4.0
3.0
4.0
GDP growth (per cent)
CPI (Q4, per cent)
RPI (Q4, per cent)
6
7
1.0
2.0
1.0
2.0
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.65
1.70
1.75
1.80
1.85
1.90
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.65
1.70
1.75
1.80
1.85
1.90
Claimant unemployment (Q4, millions)
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 13
1
2
3
4
5
6
Average of independent forecasts for 2012; Current account and PSNB (2012-13)
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
125.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
125.0
PSNB (2012-13, £billion)
-60
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-60
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
Current account (£billion)
6
7
90.0
95.0
100.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 14
1
2
3
4
5
6
Average of independent forecasts for 2013; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation and claimant unemployment
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2.5
3.0
3.5
GDP growth (per cent)
CPI (Q4, per cent)
RPI (Q4, per cent)
6
7
1.5
2.0
1.5
2.0
1.58
1.60
1.62
1.64
1.66
1.68
1.70
1.72
1.74
1.76
1.78
1.58
1.60
1.62
1.64
1.66
1.68
1.70
1.72
1.74
1.76
1.78
CPI (Q4, per cent)
Claimant unemployment (Q4, millions)
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 15
1
2
3
4
5
6
Average of independent forecasts for 2013; Current account and PSNB (2013-14)
107 5
110.0
112.5
115.0
117.5
120.0
107 5
110.0
112.5
115.0
117.5
120.0
PSNB (2013-14, £billion)
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
Current account (£billion)
6
7
100.0
102.5
105.0
107.5
100.0
102.5
105.0
107.5
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 16
1
2
3
4
5
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2012; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in the last 3
months
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
CPI (Q4, per cent)
DB
BCC
OEC
DEE U
BSBC M
S CBZ N C
apE
CS
DC
MG
SH
SBC
ING
RBS
Sa S Sb SG SCB
BEF
Cam
EC
BIC
EBR
EP EIU
GI
ITEM
NIE
SRC
GLS Li
v
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
Independent Consensus
GDP growth (per cent)
6
7
BCC
ITEM C
G BC CBZ
MS
UBS Cap
E
CS
LS RBS
Sa Sb SG BEF
CBI
CEB
R
EP GI
NIE
SR
N
EE DB
S
ING
EIU
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
Independent consensus
RPI (Q4, per cent)
CG DB
LS BCC C
BZBC M
SU
BSN EE C
apE
CS
DC
MIN
GR
BSSa S Sb SG SC
BBE
FC
BIC
EBR
GI
ITEM
NIE
SR EP EIU
Liv
2.4
2.6
2.8
2.4
2.6
2.8
Independent consensus
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 17
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2012; Claimant unemployment, current account and PSNB (2012-
13) made in last 3 months
UBS CBI
Liv BC BE
F
ITEM
CBZ RBS
SCB
GI C
G
DB Sa Sb EIU
ING
SG
Cap
E
DC
M
BCC
CEB
R
EP
EE
S
1.54
1.56
1.58
1.60
1.62
1.64
1.66
1.68
1.70
1.72
1.54
1.56
1.58
1.60
1.62
1.64
1.66
1.68
1.70
1.72
Independent Consensus
Claimant unemployment (Q4, millions) a N
G S
CG
CEB
R
Cam
E
CBI
GI
GS
Sb BC CBZ SG EE N C
S
BEF
EIU
UBS
Cap
E
Liv
LS RBS
NIE
SR
DC
M
EP60
-50
-40
60
-50
-40Current account (£billion)
BC N CEB
RIT
EMC
S MS
Sb BEF Cap
ED
BR
BSU
BS CG
SGN
IESR
LS BCC GI SC
BLi
v SaC
BZ ING
S EP EIU CBI EE
GS
70
80
90
100
110
120
70
80
90
100
110
120
Independent Consensus
PSNB (2012-13, £billion)
DB
Sa IN
-80
-70
-60
-80
-70
-60
Independent Consensus
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 18
1
2
3
4
5
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2013; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in the last 3
months
G DC
MSB
CEF N C
BZ EE MS
BC Liv EI
U Sa Sb UBS
SEP
3.0
3.5
4.0
3.0
3.5
4.0
CPI (Q4, per cent)
Cap
E CG N
EIU
EE DC
MS C
amE
CEB
RN
IESR
MS
UBS SG GI O
EFD
BFC R
BSIT
EMO
ECD
Sb BCC
CBI BC C
BZ HSB
CSa SC
B CS
LSIN
G GS
BEF Li
vEP
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Independent Consensus
GDP growth (per cent)
6
7
SGC
G DB
LSFC BE
F OEF
BCC
ITEM C
apE
GI IN
GC
BI CS
GS
EIU R
BSC
EBR
MS CBZ EE H
SBC
S NIE
SRSb BC N
Sa UBS EP
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Independent consensus
RPI (Q4, per cent)
OEF CS C
apE
GS
ING LS
FC SCB
ITEM
NIE
SRSG BC
CC
BIC
EBR
DB
RBS
GI CG D H BE
1.5
2.0
2.5
1.5
2.0
2.5
Independent consensus
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 19
1
2
3
4
5
6
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2013; Claimant unemployment, current account and PSNB (2013-
14) made in last 3 months
Liv C
G DC
M
FC SCB BE
F
CBZ
Sb CBI BC S IT
EM
GS IN
G Sa CEB
R
DB
RBS OEF
UBS EE
GI SG
BCC
EIU
Cap
E
EP
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
Independent Consensus
Claimant unemployment (Q4, millions) EF EI
U LS GS OEF
CG
Liv BC S Sb C
amE
CBI IN
GSG
ITEM GI
UBS N
EE CS CBZ FC CEB
RR
BSC
apE
DC
MEP N
IESR-50
-40
-30
-20
-50
-40
-30
-20Current account (£billion)
7
GI Li
v CS
BC GS
S ITEM
OEF Sb N C
EBR
FC RBS EEM
S CG N
IESR
DB
ING
LS SCB
UBS
BCC Cap
EC
BZ SGEI
U BEF Sa
EPC
BI
85
95
105
115
125
135
85
95
105
115
125
135
Independent Consensus
PSNB (2013-14, £billion)
DB
SaB E E
-80
-70
-60
-80
-70
-60
Independent Consensus
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 20
1
2
3
4
5
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2014; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in the last 3
months
LS RBS
CBI
CEB
R
NIE
SR
CBI EE HSB
C
Sa N BEF
ITEM
Liv U
BS SG
S
EP2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
CPI (Q4, per cent)
N
FC
UBS
S CEB
R SG EP GI
CBI C
apE
RBS
NIE
SR
EE OEC
D LS Sa
ITEM C
S
GS
HSB
C
CBI
Liv O
EF
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Independent Consensus
GDP growth (per cent)
6
7
Cap
E
LS GI FC CBI OEF C
S
SG NIE
SR
CBI R
BS
CEB
R
ITEM N GS
EE UBS Sa BE
F S HSB
C
EP
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Independent consensus
RPI (Q4, per cent)
Cap
E
OEF
GI CS
FC GS L C C
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Independent consensus
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 21
1
2
3
4
5
6
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2014; Claimant unemployment, current account and PSNB (2014-
15) made in last 3 months
Liv
BEF C
BI S ITEM EE C
BI FC CEB
R
Sa
GS
OEF G
I RBS U
BS Cap
E SG
EP
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
2.00
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
2.00
Independent Consensus
Claimant unemployment (Q4, millions)
v OEF G
S
CBI N
GI C
BI EE CEB
R
SG RBS
CS
Cap
E
EP ITEM FC UBS N
IESR
-40
-30
-20
-10
-40
-30
-20
-10Current account (£billion)
7
Liv S
OEF
N GS IT
EM LS FC GI R
BS
UBS CEB
R
NIE
SR EE
CBI
EP SG
Sa
Cap
E CBI
BEF
75
85
95
105
115
125
75
85
95
105
115
125
Independent Consensus
PSNB (2014-15, £billion)
BEF
LS S
Sa Liv O
-80
-70
-60
-50
-80
-70
-60
-50
Independent Consensus
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 22
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0.9 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.2
2.6 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.4
3.2 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.6
1.58 1.53 1.44 1.33 1.24
-45.2 -40.5 -41.7 -40.1 -47.8
2015-16
79.4
2016-17
63.8
Independent average
Note: All the averages given are the mean and exclude non-standard entries (see notation).
PSNB (£bn)
2012-13
91.1
2013-14
103.3
2014-15
92.9
Medium-term forecasts, February 2013
This edition of the comparison contains 16 new medium-term projections for the calendar years
2013 to 2017, and the fiscal years 2012-13 to 2016-17. The table below summarises the
independent average of new forecasts.
Independent average
GDP growth (per cent)
Inflation rate (per cent)
- CPI
- RPI
Claimant unemployment (mn)
Current account (£bn)
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 23
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
City forecasters
1.0 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.4 Barclays Capital * 2.2 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.4
0.2 1.5 3.0 3.5 - Capital Economics * - - - - -
0.7 0.8 1.3 1.9 - Citigroup 2.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 -
1.0 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.7 Commerzbank * 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.8 2.2
1.2 2.0 - - - Credit Suisse * - - - - -
1.4 2.0 2.3 2.6 - Goldman Sachs * 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6
1.4 2.3 2.5 2.4 - ING - - - - -
0.4 0.9 1.1 1.5 - Nomura * 2.6 3.8 2.7 2.3 -
0.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.8 RBS Global Banking & Markets * - - - - -
0.7 1.3 1.9 2.0 2.1 Schroders * - - - - -
1.1 1.2 - - - UBS - - - - -
Non-City forecasters
1.4 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.8 Beacon Economic Forecasting * 2.4 3.5 3.8 4.5 4.8
1.3 2.0 1.9 1.8 - Cambridge Econometrics 2.2 2.1 2.7 2.9 -
0.7 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.5 CEBR * 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5
0.9 2.0 - - - EC 2.7 h 2.2 h 2.3 h - -
0.5 1.3 1.7 0.9 - EIU - - - - -
0.7 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.1 Experian * 2.3 2.9 2.1 1.7 1.4
0.8 1.4 2.0 2.5 - IHS Global Insight * - - - - -
1.1 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.7 IMF 108.1 k 111.0 k 113.6 k 116.6 k 119.5 k
0.9 1.9 2.5 2.5 - ITEM Club * 3.2 3.0 2.9 3.5 -
1.5 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.0 Liverpool Macro Research * - - - - -
0.7 1.5 2.1 2.3 2.3 NIESR * 1.8 h 1.9 h 2.1 h 2.2 h 2.0 h
0.9 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.9 Oxford Economics * 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9
0.9 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.2 Independent average 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.4
0.9 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.2 New forecasts (marked *) 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.4
1.5 2.3 3.0 3.5 3.0 Highest 3.2 3.8 3.8 4.5 4.8
0.2 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.5 Lowest 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.4
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
City forecasters
0.5 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.0 Barclays Capital * 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4
0 5 1 3 - - - Capital Economics * -0 3 0 2 - - -
Table M1: Medium-term forecasts for GDP and the GDP deflatorGDP (percentage change) GDP deflator (percentage change)
Table M2: Medium-term forecasts for domestic demand and net trade contributionDomestic demand (percentage change) Contribution of net trade to GDP growth (per cent)
0.5 1.3 - - - Capital Economics -0.3 0.2 - - -
0.3 0.5 0.8 1.4 - Citigroup 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 -
1.2 1.3 2.0 2.4 2.3 Commerzbank * -0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.6
- - - - - Credit Suisse * - - - - -
1.8 1.9 2.1 2.5 - Goldman Sachs * -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 -
1.5 2.2 2.6 2.5 - ING -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -
0.5 0.7 1.0 1.6 - Nomura * -0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -
0.4 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.4 RBS Global Banking & Markets * 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.4
0.8 0.8 1.0 2.0 2.2 Schroders * -0.8 -0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
1.0 1.6 - - - UBS -0.3 -0.4 - - -
Non-City forecasters
2.1 2.7 2.2 1.7 1.9 Beacon Economic Forecasting * -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2
1.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 - Cambridge Econometrics 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 -
0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 CEBR * 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9
0.6 f 1.5 f - - - EC 0.3 0.5 - - -
0.6 1.1 1.5 0.7 - EIU -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 -
0.6 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.4 Experian * 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3
0.9 1.4 1.7 2.2 - IHS Global Insight * -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 -
- - - - - IMF - - - - -
1.0 1.7 2.1 1.9 - ITEM Club * 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 -
- - - - - Liverpool Macro Research * - - - - -
1.4 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.8 NIESR * -0.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5
1.2 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.4 Oxford Economics * -0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
0.9 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 Independent average -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
0.9 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 New forecasts (marked *) -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
2.1 2.7 2.2 2.5 2.4 Highest 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9
0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 Lowest -0.8 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 24
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
City forecasters
2.7 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.4 Barclays Capital * 3.4 3.4 3.8 3.7 3.8
2.6 1.4 1.6 2.0 - Capital Economics * 3.2 2.1 - - -
2.1 1.9 1.5 1.4 - Citigroup 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.7 -
2.7 2.4 2.5 2.7 3.1 Commerzbank * 3.2 2.9 3.4 3.8 4.1
2.4 2.0 - - - Credit Suisse * 3.2 2.7 - - -
2.5 1.9 1.9 1.5 - Goldman Sachs * 3.2 2.9 3.0 2.7 -
1.7 2.1 2.0 2.0 - ING - - - - -
2.8 2.4 2.3 2.0 - Nomura * 3.5 3.1 - - -
2.6 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 RBS Global Banking & Markets * 3.2 2.9 - - -
3.0 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.7 Schroders * 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.7
- - - - - UBS - - - - -
Non-City forecasters
2.9 2.3 2.9 3.3 3.1 Beacon Economic Forecasting * 3.1 2.8 3.9 4.1 3.9
1.6 2.1 1.7 1.8 - Cambridge Econometrics 2.4 2.9 2.9 3.1 -
2.5 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 CEBR * 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.7
2.1 1.9 - - - EC - - - - -
3.2 2.9 2.7 2.2 - EIU 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.3 -
2.8 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.1 Experian * 3.4 3.1 3.7 4.0 4.0
1.9 2.1 2.1 1.9 - IHS Global Insight * - - - - -
1.9 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 IMF - - - - -
2.8 2.4 2.2 2.5 - ITEM Club * 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.2 -
2.8 2.6 2.2 2.0 2.0 Liverpool Macro Research * 3.3 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.7
2.4 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.9 NIESR * 3.5 2.7 3.1 2.8 3.2
2.3 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 Oxford Economics * 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.7 3.5
2.5 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.3 Independent average 3.1 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.6
2.6 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.4 New forecasts (marked *) 3.2 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.6
3.0 3.2 2.9 3.3 3.1 Highest 3.5 3.4 3.9 4.1 4.1
1.9 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 Lowest 2.9 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.7
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
City forecasters
- - - - - Barclays Capital * 0.50 0.88 1.88 2.88 3.88
82.3 81.5 - - - Capital Economics * 0.50 0.50 1.50 3.50 -
83.6 83.6 84.1 0.0 - Citigroup 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.04 -
80.5 81.9 88.1 90.6 91.9 Commerzbank * 0.50 0.50 0.94 2.38 3.19
- - - - - Credit Suisse * 0.50 0.50 - - -
84.0 84.0 84.0 84.0 - Goldman Sachs * 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.25 -
- - - - - ING 0.50 1.00 2.00 3.00 -
- - - - - Nomura * 0.50 0.50 1.13 2.13 -
83.3 84.0 - - - RBS Global Banking & Markets * 0.50 0.75 - - -
- - - - - Schroders * 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.25 2.00
- - - - - UBS - - - - -
Non-City forecasters
77.9 74.5 73.2 72.1 71.7 Beacon Economic Forecasting * 0.60 1.40 2.20 2.50 2.80
88.2 k 87.0 k 88.0 k 88.0 k Cambridge Econometrics 0.50 0.80 1.40 1.80 -
82.8 83.0 84.0 85.1 86.4 CEBR * 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.90 1.80
- - - - - EC - - - - -
- - - - - EIU 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 -
85.8 87.8 89.5 90.7 90.9 Experian * 0.50 0.50 1.05 2.04 2.90
- - - - - IHS Global Insight * 0.50 1.00 2.00 3.00 -
- - - - - IMF - - - - -
84.1 83.6 81.8 79.4 - ITEM Club * 0.50 0.50 1.00 2.00 -
83.5 82.7 82.1 81.9 81.6 Liverpool Macro Research * 0.75 1.50 2.00 2.00 2.50
84.8 k 85.1 k 85.5 k 85.9 k 86.3 k NIESR * 0.50 0.50 0.90 1.40 2.00
81.8 84.7 87.2 87.6 87.8 Oxford Economics * 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.64 1.54
82.7 82.8 83.8 74.6 85.0 Independent average 0.52 0.69 1.19 1.90 2.51
82.6 82.8 83.7 83.9 85.0 New forecasts (marked *) 0.52 0.69 1.22 1.99 2.51
85.8 87.8 89.5 90.7 91.9 Highest 0.75 1.50 2.20 3.50 3.19
77.9 74.5 73.2 72.1 71.7 Lowest 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.64 1.54
Table M3: Medium-term forecasts for CPI and RPI inflationCPI inflation (annual average, per cent) RPI inflation (annual average, per cent)
Table M4: Medium-term forecasts for the sterling index and official Bank rateSterling index (annual average, Jan 2005=100) Official Bank rate (annual average, per cent)
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 25
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
City forecasters
Barclays Capital * 1.55 1.59 1.59 1.54 1.49
Capital Economics * 5.40 k 5.60 k - - -
Citigroup 1.67 1.72 1.81 1.71 -
Commerzbank * 1.53 1.45 1.46 1.49 1.52
Credit Suisse * - - - - -
Goldman Sachs * 1.57 1.55 1.53 1.08 0.80
ING 1.70 1.68 1.60 1.45 -
Nomura * - - - - -
RBS Global Banking & Markets * 1.61 1.65 - - -
Schroders * 4.90 k 4.80 k 4.40 k 3.90 k 3.20 k
UBS - - - - -
Non-City forecasters
Beacon Economic Forecasting * 1.54 1.44 1.30 1.18 1.09
Cambridge Econometrics 1.70 1.76 1.78 1.76 -
CEBR * 1.60 1.60 1.50 1.40 1.30
EC 8.00 q 7.80 q - - -
EIU 5.10 q 5.20 q 4.90 q 4.90 q -
Experian * 1.67 1.54 1.39 1.31 1.23
IHS Global Insight * - - - - -
IMF 8.11 q 7.95 q 7.57 q 7.19 q 7.01 q
ITEM Club * 1.60 1.49 1.37 1.25 -
Liverpool Macro Research * 1.49 1.37 1.26 1.16 1.08
NIESR * 2.60 p 2.59 p 2.40 p 2.24 p 2.16 p
Oxford Economics * 1.59 1.61 1.58 1.52 1.42
Independent average 1.60 1.57 1.51 1.40 1.24New forecasts (marked *) 1.58 1.53 1.44 1.33 1.24
Highest 1.67 1.65 1.58 1.52 1.52
Lowest 1.49 1.37 1.26 1.08 0.80
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
City forecasters
Barclays Capital * 1.4 y 4.4 y 6.2 y 5.6 y 4.9
Capital Economics * -5.0 y -3.0 y - y - -
Citigroup -1.2 k -0.6 k 1.6 k 3.7 k -
Commerzbank * -0.8 y 1.9 y 0.0 y 1.2 y 3.3 y
Credit Suisse * - - - - -
Goldman Sachs * - - - - -
ING 2.0 x 5.0 x 5.0 x 5.0 x -
Nomura * 1.7 z 1.6 z 2.8 z 3.2 z -
RBS Global Banking & Markets * - - - - -
Schroders * 1.4 x 1.4 x 1.6 x 2.5 x 3.0 x
UBS - - - - -
Non-City forecasters
Beacon Economic Forecasting * 1.6 z 6.4 z 6.8 z 4.5 z 3.5 z
Cambridge Econometrics - - - - -
CEBR * 0.8 k 1.9 k 3.0 k 3.8 k 4.5 k
EC - - - - -
EIU - - - - -
Experian * 0.8 z 1.8 z 2.2 z 2.4 z 2.7 z
IHS Global Insight * 2.2 x 4.3 x 5.6 x 5.1 x -
IMF - - - - -
ITEM Club * 0.2 z 2.1 z 5.0 z 6.0 z -
Liverpool Macro Research * - - - - -
NIESR * 0.6 z -3.5 z -1.7 z 0.2 z 1.7 z
Oxford Economics * 0.7 z 0.1 z 1.5 z 3.0 z 4.9 z
Independent average 0.5 1.7 3.0 3.6 3.6
New forecasts (marked *) 0.5 1.6 3.0 3.4 3.6
Highest 2.2 6.4 6.8 6.0 4.9
Lowest -5.0 -3.5 -1.7 0.2 1.7
Table M5: Medium-term forecasts for claimant unemploymentClaimant unemployment (annual average, millions)
Table M6: Medium-term forecasts for house price inflationHouse price inflation (annual average)
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 26
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
City forecasters
-50.1 -51.4 -50.9 -48.8 -45.2 Barclays Capital * -3.1 -3.1 -2.9 -2.6 -2.3
-35.0 -25.0 - - - Capital Economics * -2.2 -1.5 - - -
-46.8 -41.7 -32.6 -21.1 - Citigroup -2.9 -2.6 -1.9 -1.2 -
-39.4 -37.3 -23.2 -27.8 -33.8 Commerzbank * -2.4 -2.4 -1.4 -1.6 -1.8
-40.3 -25.2 - - - Credit Suisse * -2.5 -1.5 - - -
-53.0 -49.0 -43.0 -37.0 - Goldman Sachs * -3.3 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -
-25.0 -28.0 -30.0 -34.0 - ING - - - - -
-42.3 -41.9 -43.0 -47.1 - Nomura * -2.6 -2.5 -2.5 -2.6 -
-38.0 -32.0 - - - RBS Global Banking & Markets * -2.4 -0.8 - - -
-60.0 -50.0 -55.0 - - Schroders * - - - - -
-29.0 -24.0 - - - UBS - - - - -
Non-City forecasters
-56.1 -74.2 -85.2 -92.0 -97.0 Beacon Economic Forecasting * -3.4 -4.3 -4.7 -4.7 -4.7
-24.0 -21.7 -21.4 -22.2 - Cambridge Econometrics -1.5 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -
-39.0 -35.0 -31.0 -25.0 -19.0 CEBR * -2.4 -2.1 -1.8 -1.4 -1.0
- - - - - EC -2.2 -1.1 - - -
-54.9 -61.7 -55.8 -50.8 - EIU -3.5 -3.8 -3.3 -3.0 -
-40.8 -35.2 -44.4 -59.8 -83.5 Experian * -2.5 -2.1 -2.6 -3.4 -4.5
-45.2 -40.0 -29.5 -25.3 - IHS Global Insight * -2.8 -2.4 -1.7 -1.4 -
-68.6 k -59.5 k -42.0 k -32.5 k -22.7 k IMF -2.7 k -2.2 k -1.5 k -1.1 k -0.7
-46.0 -25.0 -14.0 0.0 - ITEM Club * -2.8 -1.5 -0.8 0.0 -
-52.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 Liverpool Macro Research * - - - - -
-33.9 -22.4 -20.4 -22.1 -15.4 NIESR * -2.1 -1.4 -1.2 -1.2 -0.8
-52.5 -51.8 -49.2 -43.2 -35.2 Oxford Economics * -3.3 -3.1 -2.9 -2.4 -1.9
-43.0 -39.3 -40.1 -38.1 -47.8 Independent average -2.7 -2.3 -2.3 -2.1 -2.4-45.2 -40.5 -41.7 -40.1 -47.8 New forecasts (marked *) -2.7 -2.3 -2.3 -2.1 -2.4
-33.9 -22.4 -14.0 0.0 -15.4 Highest -2.1 -0.8 -0.8 0.0 -0.8
-60.0 -74.2 -85.2 -92.0 -97.0 Lowest -3.4 -4.3 -4.7 -4.7 -4.7
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
City forecasters
78.4 ac 99.1 87.8 73.2 48.9 Barclays Capital * 5.0 6.1 5.2 4.1 2.6
85.0 ac 112.0 110.0 90.0 60.0 Capital Economics * 7.2 6.9 6.5 5.1 3.2
101.0 ac 121.1 117.3 113.6 - Citigroup 6.5 7.6 7.2 6.7 -
100.0 ac 112.0 105.0 98.0 75.0 Commerzbank * 6.4 7.0 6.4 5.7 4.2
Table M7: Medium-term forecasts for the current accountCurrent account (£ billion) Current account (per cent of money GDP)
Table M8: Medium-term forecasts for PSNBPSNB (£ billion) PSNB (per cent of money GDP)
100.0 ac 112.0 105.0 98.0 75.0 Commerzbank 6.4 7.0 6.4 5.7 4.2
80.5 ac 99.0 88.0 - - Credit Suisse * 5.2 6.1 5.2 - -
109.0 ac 100.0 88.0 73.0 52.0 Goldman Sachs * 7.0 6.2 5.3 4.2 2.8
95.0 ac 105.0 80.0 40.0 - ING 6.0 6.4 4.7 2.2 -
79.4 ac 102.8 87.2 78.2 - Nomura * 5.1 6.3 5.2 4.5 -
85.0 ac 105.0 95.0 - - RBS Global Banking & Markets * 5.5 6.5 5.8 - -
102.0 ac 100.0 85.0 65.0 50.0 Schroders * - - - - -
107.0 ac 110.0 95.0 - - UBS - - - - -
Non-City forecasters
83.9 ac 115.7 119.8 120.6 118.7 Beacon Economic Forecasting * 5.4 7.1 6.9 6.5 6.0
93.2 hr 79.8 hr 60.5 hr 43.7 hr - Cambridge Econometrics 5.9 hr 4.8 hr 3.5 hr 2.4 hr -
103.8 ac 96.0 88.0 74.0 68.0 CEBR * 6.3 5.7 5.0 4.0 3.5
- - - - - EC 5.8 ab 6.9 ab 5.6 ab - -
- - - - - EIU - - - - -
90.6 ac 111.9 95.5 81.6 72.1 Experian * 5.8 6.9 5.7 4.7 4.0
93.8 ac 103.8 93.0 79.8 62.8 IHS Global Insight * 5.9 6.3 5.4 4.4 3.3
99.6 hac 117.0 hac 96.9 hac 76.2 hac 52.3 hac IMF 8.2 hac 7.3 hac 5.8 hac 4.3 hac 2.8
80.2 ac 100.2 90.0 72.0 - ITEM Club * 5.1 6.1 5.2 4.0 -
95.4 ac 98.2 84.7 72.2 65.5 Liverpool Macro Research * - - - - -
90.1 ac 109.8 96.0 80.2 57.1 NIESR * 5.8 6.9 5.8 4.6 3.2
100.6 ac 87.0 73.4 53.9 35.8 Oxford Economics * 6.3 5.2 4.2 3.0 1.9
92.7 104.7 93.6 79.1 63.8 Independent average 5.9 6.5 5.6 4.5 3.591.1 103.3 92.9 79.4 63.8 New forecasts (marked *) 5.9 6.4 5.6 4.6 3.5
109.0 115.7 119.8 120.6 118.7 Highest 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.5 6.0
79.4 87.0 73.4 53.9 35.8 Lowest 5.1 5.2 4.2 3.0 1.9
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 27
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
City forecasters
Barclays Capital * -2.2 -1.7 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8
Capital Economics * -7.3 -7.3 -6.3 -5.3 -
Citigroup - - - - -
Commerzbank * -2.2 -2.2 -1.2 -0.6 -0.3
Credit Suisse * - - - - -
Goldman Sachs * -3.2 -3.5 -3.7 -3.7 -3.4
ING - - - - -
Nomura * -1.2 -1.2 -0.8 -0.7 -
RBS Global Banking & Markets * - - - - -
Schroders * -1.6 -2.1 -2.0 -1.3 -0.5
UBS - - - - -
Non-City forecasters
Beacon Economic Forecasting * - - - - -
Cambridge Econometrics - - - - -
CEBR * - - - - -
EC - - - - -
EIU - - - - -
Experian * - - - - -
IHS Global Insight * - - - - -
IMF -4.4 -3.6 -2.7 -2.1 -1.4
ITEM Club * - - - - -
Liverpool Macro Research * - - - - -
NIESR * - - - - -
Oxford Economics * -5.6 -5.3 -4.8 -4.0 -3.4
Independent average -3.5 -3.4 -2.8 -2.3 -1.6New forecasts (marked *) -3.3 -3.3 -2.8 -2.4 -1.7
Highest -1.2 -1.2 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3
Lowest -7.3 -7.3 -6.3 -5.3 -3.4
Table M9: Medium-term forecasts for the output gapOutput gap (percentage of potential GDP)
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 28
1
2
3
4
5
Average of medium-term forecasts for GDP growth, CPI
inflation and claimant unemployment
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
GDP growth (per cent)
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
CPI inflation(annual average, per cent)
6
7
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Claimant unemployment (annual average, millions)
0.0
0.5
1.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 29
1
2
3
4
5
Average of medium-term forecasts for the current
account and PSNB
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Current account (£billion)
100
110
120
100
110
120PSNB (£billion)
6
7
60
70
80
90
60
70
80
90
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 30
BoA Bank of America - Merrill Lynch
BC Barclays Capital
BCC British Chambers of Commerce
BEF Beacon Economic Forecasting
BP BNP Paribas
CamE Cambridge Econometrics
CapE Capital Economics
CG Citigroup
CBI Confederation of British Industry
CEBR Centre for Economics and Business Research
CBZ Commerzbank
DCM Daiwa Capital Markets
DB Deutsche Bank
EBS Experian Business Strategies (previously BSL)
EC* European Commission
EIU Economist Intelligence Unit
EP Economic Perspectives
GI IHS Global Insight
GS Goldman Sachs
HSBC HSBC Global Research
ING ING Financial Markets
IMF* International Monetary Fund
ITEM ITEM Club
JPM JP Morgan Chase
Liv Liverpool Macro Research
LS Lombard Street Research
MS Morgan Stanley
NIESR National Institute of Economic and Social Research
OECD* Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
OEF Oxford Economic Forecasting
RBS Royal Bank Of Scotland Global Banking & Markets
Sa Santander
S Schroders Investment Management
SC Scotia Capital
SG Societe Generale
SCB Standard Chartered Bank
UBS UBS
Annex 1: Forecasting institutions referred to in charts and tables
* Forecasts from the EC, IMF and OECD are updated when a full forecast is produced.
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 31
Annex 2: Data definitions
expressed as a percentage of trend (or potential)
(Total Pay)
Code BK67
House price inflation Q4 on Q4 annual percentage change in house prices
Public sector accounts, Table PSAT 1, Code ANNX
Current account (£bn) Balance of payments release, Table A, Code HBOP
Size of APF purchases (£bn) http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/apf/index.htm
Public Sector Net Borrowing Public sector finances release, Table PSF 1 /
Claimant unemployment (Q4, mn) Labour market statistics, Table 10, Code BCJD
Manufacturing Output National accounts, Table B1, Code CKYY
World trade in goods and services
Code VWVP, calendar year (previously financial year)
RHDI National accounts, Table J2, Code NRJR
Employment growth Workforce jobs, Labour market statistics, Table 4, Code DYDC
Official Bank Rate (Q4) (Previously Bank of England repo rate (Q4)), Code BEDR
Oil price ($ per barrel) Brent crude, annual average
M4 growth excluding intermediate OFCs Bank of England Monetary and Financial statistics division
RPIX (Q4) Consumer Price Indices release, Table 1, Code CDKQ
Whole Economy Average Weekly Earnings Labour market statistics, Table 15
Sterling index (Q4, Jan 2005=100) Bank of England Monetary and Financial statistics division
Output Gap The gap between actual output and trend (or potential) output,
CPI (Q4) Consumer Price Indices release, Table 1, Code D7G7
RPI (Q4) Consumer Price Indices release, Table 1, Code CZBH
Exports (goods and services) National accounts, Table C2, Code IKBK
Imports (goods and services) National accounts, Table C2, Code IKBL
Gross fixed investment National accounts, Table C2, Code NPQT
Change in inventories National accounts, Table C2, Code CAFU
Domestic demand National accounts, Table C2, Code YBIM
GDP National accounts, Table C2, Code ABMI
Private consumption Households + NPISH, National accounts, Table C2,
Code ABJR+HAYO
General government consumption National accounts, Table C2, Code NMRY
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 32
Annex 3: Notation used in tables
a: as a percentage of GDP
b: non-durable consumption
c: consumer expenditure less expenditure on durables and housing
d: private sector investment, stockbuilding and durable consumption
e: investment and stockbuilding combined
f: contribution to GDP growth - percentage points
g: end period
h: calendar year
i: financial year
j: compensation of employees/head
k: different definitions; refer to forecasters for details
l: 3 month interbank rate
m: general government current and capital expenditure plus stockbuilding
n: average of spot price of Brent crude and Dubai light crudeo: world trade in manufacturing
p: ILO unemployment - millions
q: ILO unemployment rate
r: PSNCR (Formerly PSBR)
s: PSNB including the effect of financial interventions
t: world GDP
u: OPEC average
v: final domestic demand
w: percentage change
x: based on Halifax house price index
y: based on Nationwide house price index
z: based on CLG house price series
aa: claimant unemployment rate
ab: treaty deficit
ac: PSNB adjusted to include the transfer of Royal Mail's pension fund
ad: M4 growth
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 33
Organisation Contact E-mail address Telephone number
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Nick Bate [email protected] 020 7995 4262
Barclays Capital Blerina Uruci [email protected] 020 7773 4373
Beacon Economic Forecasting David Smith [email protected] 019 2389 7885
British Chambers of Commerce David Kern [email protected] 020 8904 6293
Cambridge Econometrics Ragini Madan [email protected] 012 2353 3100
Capital Economics James Audley [email protected] 020 7811 3913
Citigroup Michael Saunders [email protected] 020 7986 9297
CBI David Muir [email protected] 020 7395 8102
CEBR Scott Corfe [email protected] 020 7324 2861
Commerzbank Peter Dixon [email protected] 020 7653 7271
Credit Suisse Steven Bryce [email protected] -
Daiwa Capital Markets Chris Scicluna [email protected] 020 7597 8326
Deutsche Bank George Buckley [email protected] 020 7545 1372
Experian Economics Joseph Russell [email protected] 020 7746 8265
EC Olivia Mollen [email protected] 0032 2296 7226
EIU Neil Prothero [email protected] 020 7576 8308
Economic Perspectives Peter Warburton [email protected] 015 8269 6999
Fathom Consulting Philip Lachowycz [email protected] 020 7710 0046
Goldman Sachs Sebastian Graves [email protected] 020 7552 5748
HSBC Alexi Kirlenko [email protected] 020 7991 6823
IHS Global Insight Howard Archer [email protected] 020 3159 3563
ING Financial Markets James Knightley [email protected] 020 7767 6614
ITEM club Peter Spencer [email protected] 019 0432 3771
J P Morgan Allan Monks [email protected] 020 7777 1080
Liverpool Macro Research David Meenagh [email protected] 029 2087 5198
Lombard Street Research Jamie Dannhauser [email protected] 020 7382 5961
Morgan Stanley Melanie Baker [email protected] 020 7425 8607
NIESR Simon Kirby [email protected] 020 7222 7665
Nomura Philip Rush [email protected] 020 7102 9595
Oxford Economics Elizaveta Ross [email protected] 018 6526 8224
Royal Bank of Scotland Ross Walker [email protected] 020 7085 3670
Santander GBM Stuart Green [email protected] 020 7756 6170
Schroders Investment Management Azad Zangana [email protected] 020 7658 2671
Scotiabank Alan Clarke [email protected] 020 7826 5986
Societe Generale Brian Hilliard [email protected] 020 7676 7165
Standard Chartered Bank Sarah Hewin [email protected] 020 7885 6251
UBS Nishit Mittal [email protected] -
Annex 4: Organisation contact details
Forecasts for the UK economy February 2013 34
HM Treasury contacts
This document can be found in full on our website: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk
If you require this information in another language, format or have general enquiries about HM Treasury and its work, contact:
Correspondence Team HM Treasury 1 Horse Guards Road London SW1A 2HQ
Tel: 020 7270 5000
E-mail: [email protected]
Top Related