Conseco, Inc.
selected slides from our
Second Quarter 2008
Financial and Operating Results
Presentation(as filed in our Current Report
on Form 8-K dated August 12, 2008)
Key Debt Covenants CNOQ2 2008*
($ millions)Q4 2007Q4 2006
25.0%
16.2%
2.00X
2.06X
$1,270
$1,747
245%
358%
Q4 2005
30.0%
17.4%
2.00X
2.06X
$1,270
$1,734
250%
357%
30.0%
21.0%
2.00X
3.34X
$1,270
$1,497
250%
296%
30.0%
22.8%
2.00X
3.44X
$1,270
$1,466
250%
271%
Debt/Capital Ratio
Covenant Maximum
Actual
Interest Coverage**
Covenant Minimum
Actual
Statutory Capital
Covenant Minimum
Actual
RBC Ratio
Covenant Minimum
Actual
*Preliminary calculations.**Q405 and Q406 reflect fixed charge coverage, as required under prior bank agreement.
45
• In compliance with all financial covenants
Financial Indicators*
13
CNO
*See appendix for detail on these indicators, including notes describing non-GAAP measures.**Pro forma indicators are calculated as if the proposed transaction to transfer CSHI to an Independent Trust
was completed at June 30, 2008.***Excludes investments from consolidated variable interest entity.
• Book value per diluted share (excluding accumulated other comprehensive loss)– $21.76 at 6/30/08 vs $24.41 at 12/31/07– Pro forma $18.22 at 6/30/08**
• Debt to total capital ratio (excluding accumulated other comprehensive loss)– 23% at 6/30/08 vs 21% at 12/31/07– Pro forma 28% at 6/30/08**
• Consolidated RBC ratio– 271% at 6/30/08 vs 296% at 12/31/07– Pro forma RBC is expected to increase by approximately 10 percentage points**
• Investments– Key indicators consistent with expectations– $356.1 million of investment income in Q2 2008 – Earned yield of 5.82% in Q2 2008 – 94% of bonds investment grade at 6/30/08***– Gross unrealized losses of $1,214.3 million at 6/30/08 reflects widened credit spreads in
numerous markets***
Liquidity: Holding Company Sources and Uses of Funds
15
CNO($ millions)
Sources:Interest on Surplus DebenturesNet Fees for Services Provided Under Intercompany Agreements
Uses:Interest Expense on Corporate DebtOperating Expenses
Net Impact
2007
$69.992.9
(72.3)(42.9)$47.6
YTD 2008
$28.743.1
(30.3)(33.8)
$7.7
• Corporate liquidity– Available holding company liquidity in excess of $104 million at 6/30/08, plus $80
million revolver
• Sources of and uses of funds, excluding insurance subsidiary dividends
Conseco, Inc.
Selected Slide
from KBW 2008 Insurance Conference
(as filed in our Current Report
on Form 8-K dated September 3, 2008)
• Structured securities represent 24% of total actively managed fixed maturity securities
– Over 89% AAA rated
– Over 40% agency CMOs
– 11% Alt-A Assets (99% AAA rated)
– No exposure to Agency preferred or common
• Below investment grade only 6% of portfolio
• $102MM sub-prime home equity ABS
– 90% pre-2006 vintage
– Only $22MM in A category or lower
• $923MM CMBS exposure
– Only $273MM in A category or lower
Composition of Investments as of 6/30/08
CMBS3.9%
Investment Grade Corporates59.1%
Other9.8%
Commercial Mortgages9.4%
ABS1.7%
CMOs16.2%
0.06%
(0.15%)(0.19%) (0.20%)
(0.27%)
(0.35%)(0.38%)
(0.41%)
(0.71%)
(0.11%)
(0.8%)
(0.7%)
(0.6%)
(0.5%)
(0.4%)
(0.3%)
(0.2%)
(0.1%)
(0.0%)
0.1%
CNO PFG LNC GNW MET ALL HIG PRU AIG
2Q’08 Net Investments G/L as a % of Assets
UNUM
18
Limited Exposure to Troubled Asset Classes
Summary
Our goal is stable and predictable investment performance
Diversified and liquid investment portfolio
Portfolio migration and MTM trends consistent with credit cycle and overall credit market
Risk controls include credit policy, asset liability management, hedging, and compliance
Experienced investment professionals (including 14 CFA Charterholders, 2 CPAs, 9 MBAs, and 2 JDs) - diverse fixed income disciplines
2
Govts and Agencies1.5%
Municipals2.1%
High Yield Corporates*
3.7%
Commercial Mortgages
9.4%
Investment Grade Corporates
59.1%
Non-Traditional2.0%
Equity an Derivatives0.5%
CMOs16.2%
CMBS3.9%
ABS1.7%
Asset Allocation
*Excludes variable interest entity
As of 6/30/2008(Allocations based on book values)
Our diversified investment portfolio allocation emphasizes traditional insurance sectors
3
Asset AllocationAs of 6/30/2008$Millions
IGCorporates
CMOsComm.Mort.
CMBSHY
Corporates*Municipals
Non-Traditional
ABSGovts/Agen
Equity andDerivatives
Market ValueBook Value
$13,972
$3,827
$2,227
$924$869
$504$480 $404
$352$113
$13,266
$3,639
$2,222
$842 $795$486
$432$336 $365
$45
Qualitative and MTM trends are consistent with expectations and credit cycle
*Excludes variable interest entity4
Asset AllocationAs of 6/30/2008
CMOs4.8%
IG Corporates
4.5%
HY Corporates
(0.2%)
Municipals0.7%
Non-Traditional 0.9%
Govts/Agen. (2.1%) CMBS
(2.4%)
Comm. Mort.(0.5%)
ABS (5.6%)
Peer Avg.
PercentagePointsHigh
PercentagePointsLow
Peer averages comprised of Genworth, Lincoln, Principal, Phoenix, Protective Life, and Reinsurance Group of America
Relative portfolio allocations vs. peer averages
5
Other7.1%Retail 1.3%
Utilities13.4%
Energy/Pipelines11.9%
Banks8.8%
Food/Beverage8.1%
Insurance7.9%
Healthcare/Pharma7.4%
Real Estate/REITs5.2%
Cable/Media4.5%
Brokerage4.4%
Telecom3.7%
Cap Goods3.6%
Transportation 3.4%
Building Mat'ls 2.5%
Aerospace/Defense 3.1%
Technology 2.2%
Consumer Products 1.5%
Investment Grade CorporatesAs of 6/30/2008
IG Corporates
59.1%
Our IG Corporate allocation is diversified and emphasizes traditionally less cyclical sectors
6
Other, 8.0%
Healthcare/Pharma, 7.1%
Food/Beverage, 8.2%
Building Mat'ls, 9.4%
Cable/Media, 13.3%
Cap Goods, 1.3%
Real Estate/REITs, 6.8%Entertainment/Gaming, 6.3%
Technology, 5.4%
Energy/Pipelines, 5.3%
Telecom, 4.5%
Paper, 3.8%
Aerospace/Defense, 3.6%
Chemicals, 3.4%
Autos, 3.3%
Utilities, 3.2%
Consumer Products, 2.1%
Hotels, 2.0%
Retail, 1.7%Metals & Minning, 1.3%
High Yield CorporatesAs of 6/30/2008
High Yield Corporates
3.7%
Our HY Corporate allocation is diversified and is weighted away from cyclicals
7
AAAAA
ABBB
BB
Market Value
Book Value
$581
$69 $106 $144
$23
$563
$62 $90 $107$20
CMBSAs of 6/30/2008$Millions
CMBS3.9%
Our CMBS exposure emphasizes AAA and AA categories (more than 70%)
8
Pre-200435.3%
200423.4%
200525.1%
200610.7%
20075.5%
CMBSAs of 6/30/2008
Our CMBS exposure is heavily weighted toward older vintageswith stronger qualitative characteristics and seasoning
9
Retail32.3%
Multi-Family15.1%
Hotel5.9%
Other14.9%
Industrial4.2%
Office27.6%
Our CMBS are backed by a diverse pool of underlying collateral –$90 billion, from more than 7,700 commercial mortgage loans
CMBSAs of 4/30/2008
10
CMBS
South Atlantic
19.2%
New England
4.0%
East South Central
2.0%
West South Central
7.6%
Pacific18.1%
Middle Atlantic
19.4%Mountain
7.0%
As of 6/30/2008
West North Central
2.6% East North Central
8.4%
Underlying collateral is geographically diverse
Multiple Regions11.7%
11
CMBS
Collateral
DSCR
LTV
Occupancy
Cap rate
Rent rolls
Geographic distribution
Industry distribution
Collateral rating/credit grade distribution
IO loans
NOI trends
TI/LC reserves
Sponsor Structure Surveillance
Property/company and management overview
Origination practices
Underwriting
Monitoring and collection process
Quality control
Trust structure
Cash flow allocation
Mechanics of credit/ enhancement/protection
Servicer
Stress tests
Rating
Term/Yield/Duration vs. portfolio
Prepayment projections
Monitor rating versus performance
Identify underperforming assets/transactions which could lead to rating change
Projections on defaults delinquencies, and recoveries
Projected cash flows and credit support levels
Stress tests
We track our CMBS using a robust underwriting and surveillance process
12
Private LabelFHLMC
FNMAGNMA
Market Value
Book Value
$1,742
$1,376
$625
$84
$1,581
$1,356
$618
$83
CMOsAs of 6/30/2008$Millions
CMOs16.2%
Our CMO portfolio is approximately 50% GSE guaranteedand is more than 99% AAA rated
13
CMOsAs of 6/30/2008$Millions Our private label CMOs are diversified by type
and vintage and are more than 98% AAA rated
2004 - Alt-AMV/BV: 93%
2007 - Prime JumboMV/BV: 89%
2005 - Alt-AMV/BV: 85%
2003 - Prime JumboMV/BV: 95%
2007 - Alt-AMV/BV: 85%
2006 - Prime JumboMV/BV: 94%
2005 - Prime JumboMV/BV: 94%
2004 - Prime JumboMV/BV: 93%
2006 - Alt-AMV/BV: 85%
16.6%
26.0%
9.8% 10.6%
24.4%
6.6%
3.7%
1.7%
0.6%
Private Label
CMOs7.4%
14
As of 6/30/2008
CMOs
Sequential 46.5%
Eff. Duration: 7.18Convexity: (0.83)
Pass Through 3.9%
Eff. Duration: 4.95Convexity: (0.90)
NAS 21.8%
Eff. Duration: 8.82Convexity: 0.16
TAC/Accretion Directed5.7%
Eff. Duration: 7.36Convexity: (0.20)
PAC19.8%
Eff. Duration: 8.81Convexity: 0.10
Z-Tranche 2.3%
Eff. Duration: 16.7Convexity: (1.77)
Our CMO portfolio has moderate cash flow volatility
15
ABS1.7%
Equipment3.2%
Credit Cards21.7%Subprime HELs
25.2%
Financial Settlements14.6%
Home Equity35.2%
As of 6/30/2008
Asset Backed Securities
16
Asset Backed SecuritiesAs of 6/30/2008$Millions Subprime HEL and HELOC valuations reflect challenging MTM
environment for mortgage securities
Home EquitySubprime HELs
Credit CardsFinancial Settlements
Equipment
Market Value
Book Value
$141
$103
$89
$59
$13
$103
$85$85
$53
$11Avg. Rating: Aa2
Avg. Rating: Aa2
Avg. Rating: Aa2
Avg. Rating: A1 Avg. Rating: Aa3 17
ABS/CMO
Collateral
Debt-to-Income
Loan-to-Value
Occupancy type
Geographic distribution
Credit score
IO loans
Documentation
Loan tapes
Loan Performance Platform
Sponsor Structure Surveillance
Origination practices
Underwriting practices
Servicer quality
Monitoring and collection process
Quality control
Trust structure
Cash flow allocation
Mechanics of credit/ enhancement/protection
Stepdowns
Rating
Term/Yield/Duration vs. portfolio
Intex Platform
Collateral performance review: variance attribution
Stochastics on defaults, delinquencies, recoveries, prepayments, and cash flows
Trends in credit support relative to delinquencies and losses
Projected cash coverages
Principal payment windows
Projected collateral writedowns
Yield Book Platform
We have a robust analytical process for residential mortgage securities
18
Industrial/Warehouse8.4%
Office37.5%
Retail48.5
Multi-Family4.7%Other
1.1%
Commercial Mortgages
9.4%
Commercial MortgagesAs of 6/30/2008
Our commercial mortgage loan allocation includes credit tenant loans
19
Commercial Mortgages
South Atlantic
21.7%
New England
9.1%
East South Central
5.4%
West South Central
5.9%
Pacific6.8%
Middle Atlantic
8.1%Mountain
10.2%
As of 6/30/2008
West North Central13.5% East North
Central19.3%
20
90.1%
6.6%1.9% 0.4% 1.0%
$0 - $10 $11 - $20 $21 - $30 $31 - $40 $40+
54.9%
21.3%
10.3%3.1%
10.4%
$0 - $10 $11 - $20 $21 - $30 $31 - $40 $40+
Commercial MortgagesAs of 6/30/2008$Millions
Loan Balance
Number of Loans
Our portfolio tends toward a large number of loanswith few large exposures
21
Our asset portfolio has lengthened to bettermatch our insurance liabilities
6.2 6.46.9 6.9
7.38.2
7.1 7.1 7.0 7.2 7.5 7.97.5
6.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2Q 2008
Dur
atio
n (y
ears
)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Abs
olut
e V
aria
nce
(yea
rs)
Actual Target Variance
Asset Liability Management
22
(4,000)
(3,000)
(2,000)
(1,000)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036
Asset Liability ManagementWe use projections of Asset and Liability cash flows to
articulate opportunities and risks
Simulation analysis, including cash flow testing
Portfolio gap analysis, including maturity analysis and interest rate sensitivity analysis
Optimization analysis
Investment and mitigation strategies
$Millions
23
Metrics Uses / Results
DurationConvexityYieldProjected cash flowInvestment incomeSurplus
Product managementPlanning
– Income – Capital
Surplus managementCash flow testing
Asset Liability Management
StatutoryPortfolios
Life
Annuity
Spec. Disease
LTC
Asset segmentation focuses on product segment needs
24
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1Q '06 2Q '06 3Q '06 4Q '06 1Q '07 2Q '07 3Q '07 4Q '07 1Q '08 2Q '08
99.50%
99.75%
100.00%
100.25%
100.50%
Gain/Loss as % Inforce R Squared
Asset Liability Management
% Inforce
Our EIA hedging process demonstrates effective results
R Squared
25
Risk Management
Systemic risks we closely monitor
Widening of general credit spreads
Volatility of interest rates
Directional movements in prices and volatilities of equity indices
Changes in the level of the yield curve
Changes in asset valuations
26
Risk Management
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08
Equity Volatility(VIX)
Vix
Source: Bloomberg
27
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan-0
6Fe
b-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-0
6Ju
l-06
Aug-0
6Sep
-06
Oct-06
Nov-0
6Dec
-06
Jan-0
7Fe
b-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-0
7Ju
l-07
Aug-0
7Sep
-07
Oct-07
Nov-0
7Dec
-07
Jan-0
8Fe
b-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-0
8
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
A Corporate - Spread High Yield Default Rates
Risk Management
Corporate Spreads and Default Rates
Source: Lehman and Moody’s
SpreadDefault
Rate
28
Risk Management
10 Year vs. 30 Year Treasuries
Source: Lehman
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-06
Feb-0
6M
ar-06
Apr-06
May
-06Ju
n-06Ju
l-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-0
7M
ar-07
Apr-07
May
-07Ju
n-07Ju
l-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-0
8M
ar-08
Apr-08
May
-08Ju
n-08
Spread
29
Risk Management
11.5%
7.5%
3.2%
0.2%
-1.7%
-3.4%-4.6%
-8.9%
-15.8%
March 06 June 06 Sept 06 Dec 06 March 07 June 07 Sept 07 Dec 07 May 08
Home Prices(Year-Over-Year Change)
Source: S&P/Case-Shiller
30
Proactive approach to controlling key risks
Documented guidelines for risk policies and risk capacity
Monitoring and enforcing adherence to our risk policies
Measuring quantifiable risks using proven methodologies and market-consistent values
Fundamental credit surveillance
Senior oversight of capital commitments involving less liquid assets
Extensive use of third parties to value invested assets
Independent data integrity function
Risk Management
31
• Subprime allocation reflects severe market discount and high delinquencies in 2006 and 2007 vintages
• HEL allocation reflects market stresses
As of 6/30/2008
Risk Management
• Overall mark-to-market and credit migration consistent with credit cycle
• Pressure on financials
• Highly rated, highly liquid
• Satisfactory performance, with some pressure on ALT-A’s
• Low, but rising delinquency trends
• Seasoned portfolio
• Pricing pressure on BBB exposure bears careful surveillance
• Increases in delinquencies could result from slowing economy
• Active surveillance and portfolio management
Managing through the credit cycle by emphasizing long-term assessments of value and quality
CMBS 3.9%
Commercial Mortgage
9.4%
CMOs16.2%Investment Grade
Corporates59.1%
ABS 1.7
Other9.7%
32
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
3Q 034Q 031Q 042Q 043Q 044Q 041Q 052Q 053Q 054Q 051Q 062Q 063Q 064Q 061Q 072Q 073Q 074Q 071Q 082Q08
Performance
Yield*Our investment yield has trended favorably in recent periods
* Gross yields before investment expenses
33
Top Related